TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #10 Colorado Buffaloes

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

When it comes to roster turnover, few teams in the NCAA are more immune to that part of a team's lifecycle than Colorado.

Some people attribute that to recruiting. Others cite elite development.

However, fans like ourselves (at TSR) often point to something called the "Wetmore Factor," the Invisible Hand-like phenomena that can't truly be explained.

Colorado has reached a point in their program's history where it doesn't really matter who they lose -- they'll find a way to stay nationally competitive, regardless. And yes, some of their recent fall campaigns have been better than others. But in terms of reliability and consistency, it's impossible to bet against this squad.

As we venture into the fall of 2023, the "Wetmore Factor" could be tested to its fullest extent. The Buffaloes just lost a mass number of highly important veteran scorers. And while there is still a promising core of runners on this team, we still need to see them deliver on their potential.

Last fall, the Colorado men began their competitive cross country campaign at the Cowboy Jamboree, the course of last year's national meet. There, they would face numerous juggernaut distance programs.

Overall, this was just an "ok" race for the Buffaloes. Andrew Kent (8th) was a very pleasant surprise with his outstanding low-stick finish, but the rest of the team offered him limited support relative to expectations.

The combination of Charlie Sweeney (37th), James Overberg (40th) and Brendan Fraser (42nd) all posted respectable results, but left a gap slightly too big between them and Kent. Meanwhile, Lukas Haug closed out the scoring with a respectable 57th place finish.

In the end, Colorado placed 7th in the team standings. It wasn't the most exciting result, but the Buffaloes didn't have Austin Vancil. And if he had run, then this team likely would have jumped past Wake Forest and been more competitive with Tulsa.

The Boulder-based men later ventured to the Nuttycombe Invitational where they would produce a result of a similar magnitude.

This time, Vancil (21st) and Hirsch (22nd) were the lead scorers, giving their team two very solid low-stick results, something that Colorado needed more of at the Cowboy Jamboree. Andrew Kent (44th) held his own and offered great value, but he clearly could have been better given his last performance.

With Fraser (62nd) and Sweeney (74th) closing out the scoring relatively quickly, the Buffaloes placed 8th overall, just four points behind Wisconsin. It was a solid result for the PAC-12 program, but it was also clear that the team needed fewer lineup gaps and more scoring potency.

All of that would be required if the Buffs wanted to realistically threaten for the podium.

The PAC-12 XC Championships were next on deck, although the final result was hardly a surprise. The Stanford men were clearly the class of the conference while the Buffaloes were quite obviously the second-best team in the field.

Kent (4th) returned to his potent low-stick ways while Vancil, Noah Hibbard and Hirsch packed together to stabilize their team's scoring. They secured finishes of 12-13-14, respectively. With Hunter Appleton posting an 18th place finish of his own, this team was able to earn a runner-up result, defeating both Oregon and Washington somewhat comfortably.

As we ventured into the rest of the postseason, it felt like we knew what we were going to get out of this team. Their low-stick scoring potency was a bit sporadic, but they were always going to have one or two key names leading their pack. Their backend was never going to let their team score be excessive, but there could be a gap between them and the top men.

After cruising through the Mountain Regional XC Championships, that evaluation seemed to hold merit on the national stage.

At the NCAA XC Championships, the Buffaloes rallied behind the likes of Austin Vancil (36th) and Andrew Kent (43rd), the former earning an All-American honor and the latter just missing out on the same status.

Meanwhile, Hirsch (68th) and Sweeney (69th) offered value lineup stability just like they had all season long. Fraser closed out the scoring with an admirable 82nd place finish. It may not have been the flashiest team performance of the meet, but Colorado got the job done by placing 8th overall in the final standings.

As we enter the fall of 2023, this team loses A TON of their veteran scorers. In fact, they're expected to lose four of their top-five men from the national meet! For most teams, those losses would be impossible to recover from.

Colorado, of course, isn't like most teams.

Despite their mass exodus of scoring, it still feels like we may be robbing the Buffs from a couple of spots despite listing them at TSR #10. That's how much we respect the history of this team.

Of course, at the same time, we have to recognize that this team isn't going to look anything like they did last fall. Yes, All-American ace Austin Vancil is returning, but a heavy number of key veterans are gone.

Andrew Kent, Seth Hirsch, Charlie Sweeney and Brendan Fraser are all out of cross country eligibility -- and that's just brutal. That entire group was fairly consistent and never let this team score get out of control. Some guys were more potent in certain races compared to separate efforts, but as a whole, this was a very reliable and experienced contingent of distance talent.

There is, of course, good news.

Outside of Vancil, pretty much everyone else who made an appearance for Colorado last fall is set to return. That includes a heavy handful of high-upside youngsters, many of which flashed similar levels of reliable scoring as their now-departed teammates.

It also doesn't hurt that they added a high school star in Kole Mathison and a key graduate transfer in Paul Stafford (via Florida State) as well.

It won't be easy, but there are multiple avenues that Coach Mark Wetmore and his staff can take as they piece together an effective and cohesive scoring group. And if they can build enough momentum, then a TSR #10 ranking won't be good enough for this squad.

Vancil is the clear focal point of this team. He has been so steady and reliable throughout the years. He never had a poor race and he delivered on his low-stick potential on most occasions. Finishing 22nd at the Nuttycombe Invite was great to see and the same could be said about his 36th place finish on the national stage.

Sure, his performance at the PAC-12 XC Championships (12th) could have been slightly better, but if that's going to be his "worst" race of the season, then we'll happily take that.

If Colorado had a more sporadic low-stick runner leading their team, then we would admittedly be more concerned. This lineup should have a very solid group of scorers, but they clearly need someone to offer firepower for every meet that they line for.

Luckily, Vancil hasn't given us any reason to doubt that he can do that throughout the entirety of a cross country season.

We'll fully admit, we don't really know what the rest of this lineup is going to look like. There is a very unique mix of returners and newcomers on this team who each offer varying levels of value, consistency and upside. Trying to determine what Colorado's top-five is going to look like feels like a slight shot in the dark.

Even so, it's hard not to start this part of our conversation with Kole Mathison.

The Indiana native was a prep star for years during his time at midwest powerhouse, Carmel High School. Mathison thrived as the distances got longer and was arguably at his best on the grass. This is, after all, someone who won gold at the 2022 Champs Sports XC National Championships last fall over an elite field after placing 4th at the NXN Championships.

With personal bests of 4:06 (mile), 8:13 (3k), 8:47 (two miles) and 14:23 (5k XC), this guy could be a legitimate star as soon as this year. Oh, and he finished 25th at the U20 World XC Championships back in February.

Truthfully, it wouldn't surprise us if Mathison turned into a backend All-American this fall. He is the perfect recruit for Colorado -- a true aerobic-centric star who gets better as the racing distance gets longer. He has a ton of championship experience and is better on the grass than he is on the track (which is all relative).

Of course, Colorado also has a tendency to redshirt certain freshmen -- that's fairly common of them. And while we're not sure if we would expect that to happen to Mathison, it's still plenty possible.

We're also heavily speculating as to what Mathison could do in his first year. There's no guarantee that he'll be a top-70 runner in the NCAA this fall, or even a top-100 talent. It seems plenty possible that he could get there, but true freshmen are often massive wildcards.

But let's say that Mathison turns out to be just as good as Andrew Kent was last year. That still leaves three highly important scoring roles to be filled by the rest of the Buffaloes (with no room for error). Who could those remaining spots go to?

There are plenty of arguments to be made for a variety of guys. However, Noah Hibbard, a redshirt senior, deserves a mention in this conversation.

Last fall, Hibbard posted a decent 69th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, earned a respectable 3rd place finish in the "B" race at the Nuttycombe Invite and secured a great 13th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships.

While his 60th place result at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, Hibbard had moments (albeit, inconsistently) where he offered excellent scoring value. He was very quiet on the track, but the potential for him to be more consistent this fall makes him very valuable.

We also have Hunter Appleton who has proven to be a steady (and potentially underrated) name over the last few years. After finishing 115th at the NCAA XC Championships and 18th at the PAC-12 XC Championships, the veteran ran solid times of 7:58 (3k) and 13:52 (5k) on the indoor oval. He didn't, however, have a great spring campaign.

There is a lot to like about Appleton. He may not be quite as impactful as a scorer as some of the top veterans were last year, but he'e still very solid. This is someone who, at the very least, should allow Colorado to keep their team score in check. He also seems to have some upside within him given his recent improvements.

And how about Lukas Haug? He was a redshirt freshman last fall, but had brief of moments of promise in 2022. Finishing 57th at the Cowboy Jamboree was a very encouraging development. His 127th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite wasn't perfect, but it wasn't necessarily bad, either.

However, after a poor outing at the PAC-12 XC Championships, Haug was removed from the Buffaloes' lineup for the rest of the postseason. We haven't seen him race since then, but it's clear that, at his best, he can provide really nice value to this team.

As for Jace Aschbrenner, he had a fairly quiet cross country season. He had a few passable cross country results, but not enough to be an impact name for this team.

Of course, a recent 28:45 (10k) result from this past spring was great to see. That's exactly the kind of potential that we knew this guy had, but had simply never seen before. If that result is translatable to the grass, then the Buffaloes may have found their third or fourth scorer in their lineup.

It's truthfully hard to know who we could realistically compare Aschbrenner to from last year's team, but if he's as good as Brendan Fraser, then that would be a win.

And then there are the rising underclassmen. Isaiah Givens is about to be a sophomore while James Overberg will soon be a redshirt sophomore. Each of those men had races last year that made us turn our heads and ask, "How good can they can be in 2023?"

Overberg had a solid cross country season, finishing 40th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 96th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 111th at the national meet. He wasn't always a scorer for his team, but he was still fairly reliable.

However, on the outdoor oval, Overberg was fantastic. He ran times of 13:49 (5k) and 28:38 (10k) before shutting down his season after mid-April. In our eyes, he'll undoubtedly be a top-five scorer for this team in 2023 as long as he's healthy.

Of course, where in that top-five is the bigger question.

As for Givens, he was more of a middle distance-centric runner for the Buffs this past winter and spring. He ran an electric mile time of 3:55.99 and also flexed some decent turnover for the 800 meter distance (running 1:49).

While those are more speed-related marks, we also have to recognize that this guy finished 47th at the Cowboy Jamboree last fall while racing unattached. For a true freshman, that was a very strong performance.

We finally come to Paul Stafford, the graduate transfer from Florida State. While his overall consistency could be better, there are subtle signs suggesting that he's a perfect fit for this program. The former Seminole is a true long distance ace and his 2020 pandemic-altered cross country season featured a lot of really nice performances.

At the very least, he'll offer depth, but in a best-case scenario, he'll be a scorer for this team.

It feels a bit crazy that we just listed off nine different men who could find themselves in Colorado's top-seven later this fall and yet, there could be someone else we didn't mention who cracks their lineup.

Even as I finish typing this, I fear that we didn't give Colorado a good enough ranking. Yes, they lose so many men, but the reinforcements that they have could be just as good.

At the same time, so many of these guys are crazy young while others offer only speculation. We're relying heavily on guys like Mathison, Givens, Overberg, Appleton, Haug, Aschbrenner, Stafford and Hibbard to fully translate their top performances to this fall, be more consistent, stay healthy and/or make improvements.

And from a simple probability standpoint, we will not see that from all eight of those men.

Of course, we don't necessarily need to see that from all eight of them -- we only need to see that from half of that group. Plus, with Vancil headlining this varsity group, the core is there for this team to be a major problem in the postseason and maybe even make a run at the conference title depending on what happens with Stanford.

In the grand scheme of things, the fall of 2023 may be a "priming" season for the future. This roster is still extremely young and they'll almost definitely be better in 2024 and 2025. That, however, doesn't take away from the fact that the Buffaloes are going to be a major headache to deal with in the next few months.