Donald Speas
Nov 27, 202310 min
Written by Donny Speas, edits and additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
Was not ranked in our last update.
First number indicates how much the team has moved in our rankings.
The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.
The NXR Southwest Championships were just as good as expected. In fact, if this meet had taken place during any other weekend, then it would have had an article written on it. And that's why it feels impossible to write about one of these top-two teams without mentioning the other, so here we go.
In the much-anticipated showdown between our top-two teams in the country, Niwot came out on top by 14 points, winning over Air Academy, 58 points to 72 points.
At the front of the race, Addison Ritzenhein (3rd) continued her streak of incredible racing, crossing the line with a mark 17:03 (5k) and as the first team-scoring runner. That was just one place in front of Bethany Michalak, the top scorer from Air Academy.
The battle upfront quickly set the tone for the rest of the race, namely runners from both schools being separated by mere seconds.
Tessa Walter (Air Academy) came in one spot in front of Mia Prok (Niwot) while Chamorra Cooper (Air Academy) finished 23rd which was one spot ahead Sarah Perkins (Niwot) who snagged 24th place. Oh, and Emily Beers (Air Academy) settled for 25th place while Cayden Justice (Niwot) took 26th place.
You really can’t make this stuff up.
The main reason that Niwot was able to pull ahead of their in-state foes was a huge day by senior Olivia Alessandrini who set a six-second personal best, running 17:43 (5k) to finish in 11th place. She was ultimately the secondary heavy-hitter (scoring-wise) who gave Niwot an edge over the Kadets in terms of firepower.
And with each of the supporting casts largely similar between the two teams, you can see where the definitive separation point was in their scoring structures thanks to Alessandrini's performance.
In less than two weeks' time, we'll get to see the Niwot Cougars and the Air Academy Kadets face-off once again, this time in a smaller, but far more top-heavy field at Nike Cross Nationals. Of course, we'll be fascinated to see whether or not the larger field plays into either team's favor more than the other.
Surprise surprise, the Lone Peak Knights are still sitting at our TSR #3 spot. Oddly enough, the Knights aren’t just the third-best team in the country. In fact, they're also the third-best team in the Southwest region, at least in our eyes.
At the NXR Southwest Championships, Lone Peak slid down to 4th place which doesn’t sound the best for a team that we've got ranked as the bronze medal favorites, nationally..
However, it's important to note that the Knights rested Andie Aagard, the 2023 Utah 6A individual cross country state champion. And in case it wasn't already obvious enough, not having your superstar low-stick makes a massive difference.
Last year, Aagard took home the individual title at NXR Southwest meet. And although I wouldn’t have called her a lock to repeat as champion, I would have said that it would be a safe bet that she would be scoring five points or less last weekend.
That's why we shouldn't be concerned about this team. In fact, I see this as a promising sign. If Lone Peak can hold their own against the best teams in the country (they were a good 70 points ahead of a strong American Fork squad who finished in 5th place) without Aagard, then I see them as a strong choice for the podium in Portland.
Let's not forget that the Knights still had a stable and valuable scoring trio of Addie Meldrum (14th), Boston Bybee (20th) and Maya Bybee (30th) all crack the top-30. And with the backend scorers being a bit more spread out (comparatively) at the NXR Southwest meet, the impact of Aagard returning would be far more impactful than already-tight scoring five.
Ladies and gentlemen, she’s back!
In our first edition of these rankings earlier in the fall, we said this about Flower Mound’s podium chances: “The second key aspect, and perhaps more importantly, is the return of Nicole Humphries, whenever that may be.”
A star low-stick for the Jaguars, Nicole Humphries made her season debut at the Texas UIL 6A XC State Championships (placing 23rd) where she ran a respectable time 18:12 (5k), helping her team pull off the upset over a ranked Southlake Carroll team. Of course, it was clear that she wasn't quite at top form.
But then Humphries kept the ball rolling at the NXR South Championships, cutting 22 seconds off of her seasonal best mark to run a 17:49 (5k) to finish in 12th place, a clear improvement from her prior effort.
The return of Nicole Humphries proved to be absolutely monumental for the Jaguars in that race as they ended up winning the NXR South title by 38 points. The difference was a 19-point swing (before displacement). And although Flower Mound still would've won without her, the Jaguars were able to dominate a very good field with her.
In many drafts of these rankings, we've had the Flower Mound girls ranked as high as TSR #2 in the country. No, I'm not saying that we're expecting another big climb in the rankings, by the Jaguars, but I also won’t be shocked if they can make magic happen.
The firepower on this team is incredibly potent, especially if Nicole Humphries is going to continue to improve. Samantha Humphries continues to be unsurprisingly brilliant and Alexandra Fox has clearly looked sharper this year despite already being great last year.
With a lineup that seemingly goes six girls deep (also featuring Natalie Spangher, Adeline Bennett and Ava Cole) the floor for this team also seems pretty high as well.
The last of the Southwest squads to be included on our top-10 list are the Mountain Vista girls. Like many of the teams on this list, the highlight of the last couple weeks was their performance at the NXR Southwest Championships.
This past weekend in Arizona, the Golden Eagles showed up a big way, finishing in 3rd place behind the top-two squads in our rankings and one place in front of an Andie Aagard-less Lone Peak team. While this meet was great for squashing any questions that came up after their head-scratching Colorado XC State Championships, it wasn’t necessarily enough to raise them in our rankings, either.
Of course, part of the lack of change is no fault of their own. It's more because a few squads in other regions simply had some amazing weekends.
However, in order to move them farther up the rankings, we needed to see the Golden Eagles to beat Lone Peak by a larger margin at the NXR Southwest meet. That's because if you put Andie Aagard back in Lone Peak’s lineup, then the final result quickly turns into a 30-point loss instead of a 15-point win.
Nonetheless, Mountain Vista has a great scoring structure. Claire Guiberson (9th) and Peyton Adams (10th) were great low-stick scorers and the latter name proved that her Colorado state meet performance was obviously not reflective of her actual talent. The same thing could be said about Juliet Frum (21st) who truthfully may even have more scoring potential within her.
There may have been a bit of a drop-off after those three, but Zoe Brandt is definitely capable of a stronger effort (she feels a bit underrated on this team). And as a collective unit, this squad is solid across the board. Plus, they'll likely look stronger when they race against teams that aren't in the strongest region in the country.
JSerra Catholic moves down our list, not because of anything that they did, but simply due to the strong results that we saw by other teams around the nation.
The Lions have simply shown up and taken care of business during the California postseason schedule. At the California Division 4 Southern Section Prelims, the Lions raced there "B" squad and still won their heat by 14 points, advancing to the next weekend.
At the California Division 4 Southern Section Finals, they dominated the field, winning by 48 points over a solid Oaks Christian squad. Finally, at the CIF State XC Championships, they took home the win, both in Division 4 (by a 110-point margin) and in the combined results, squeaking out a one-point win to lock-up the first NXN auto qualifying spot.
The fascinating aspect of this team is that they don't seem to have one true megastar low-stick who carries all of the scoring weight. Instead, they seemingly have (a somewhat variable) four-woman contingent who can each act as fringe low-sticks (nationally speaking), but collectively provide highly valuable scoring prowess.
The quartet Summer Wilson, Sophie Polay, Kaylah Tasser and Brynn Garcia all cracked the top-10 at the California state meet (Division 4), but it feels like Garcia could be slightly better. Oh, and Anne Elise Packard, a top-50 finisher at Woodbridge, was also absent last weekend. Pair her with a key lineup piece in Reese Holley, and you can see how dangerous this team can be most in race settings.
Simply put, this squad has numerous options for their lineup, many of which are interchangeable. If they all run well on the same day, it's hard to see the Lions fading outside of the top-10 portion of our team rankings.
The state of California continues to baffle me, at least from a cross country competition perspective. Just when I think that we have everything figured out, a new team comes out of the woodworks and puts together a surprise performance.
This past weekend, it was the Santiago Corona girls, the newly-crowned 2023 CIF Division 1 cross country state champions. They won in the narrowest of fashions, led by individual winner Rylee Blade who has emerged as a true national-caliber star this fall.
In that race, the Sharks pulled off a one-point victory over Buchanan, a team that has spent plenty of time in our rankings. And ironically, in the merged results, the Sharks lost by one point to our TSR #6 team, JSerra Catholic.
This is the point where you may be wondering, "How did a team that finished 7th at the Woodbridge XC Classic manage to pull off this upset and snag the second auto-qualifying spot from Buchanan?"
Well, luckily, we have a data point from when the Sharks have previously raced the CIF course. At the ASICS Clovis Invitational, they finished in 4th place and had a top-five average of 18:16 (5k). Compare that to Santiago Corona's top-five average of 17:48 (5k) from this past weekend, and you can see the obvious differentiator. When your team is on average 28 seconds faster, that's enough of a performance to book your ticket to Portland.
We've already spoken about how good Rylee Blade has been, but the emergence of Braelyn Combe has a true low-stick has been huge. She didn't race at Woodbridge which is what ultimately allowed this team to fall under the radar.
Not only that, but Taylor Davis has emerged as a third lead scorer for this team, giving the Sharks a lethal 1-2-3 punch which has allowed them to thrive in top-heavy fields.
Although the rise of Santiago Corona may have caused chaos for me as a writer, it was absolutely amazing for me as a fan, and I can't wait to see which California team comes out on top at NXN.
The Tatnall girls have had the most unsurprising postseason of anyone on this list.
The Hornets dominated the Delaware Division Two XC State Championships, winning by 77 points! The NXR Southeast meet didn’t look too much different. Even against much stronger competition, the Delaware-based distance power still managed to win by 34 points against the best teams in the region.
One thing that separates Tatnall from the rest of the teams on this list is that they have as much momentum as you could possibly want. At the NXR Southeast meet, the Hornets top-three of Abby Downin, Ruby Schwelm and Katie Payne all set personal bests and when you add in their fourth scorer, Carlita Kaliher, they put four in the top-20.
That has largely been the lineup structure that Tatnall has flexed for most of this season. And with four women running so well next to each other on such a consistent basis, it's hard to dislike much about this team. As long as Katrina Endress can continue to close out the scoring quick enough, which she has done incredibly well this season, the Hornets seems like a safe bet on the national stage.
We can’t fault the Southlake Carroll girls too much for losing to a Flower Mound squad that just got future Oregon Duck, Nicole Humphries, back into their lineup. So naturally, you would think it would make sense to drop them down a spot or maybe down to being a "Just Missed" team, right?
Well, that was our original plan until the NXR South Championships.
Leading up to the NXR South meet, the Dragons had two losses (only counting races that included the full varsity lineup) on the season. One of those losses came at the hands of the aforementioned Jaguars and the other came from Lucas Lovejoy in the early weeks of the season.
But since then, the Dragons have officially avenged that loss, beating Lucas Lovejoy by 34 points at the NXR South meet.
When the national meet rolls around, keep an eye out for senior Alexandra Walsh. The future Auburn distance talent has been a bit up and down at times, but when she's at her best, Walsh is a 17-flat (5k) runner who could certainly be a top-10 scoring name this coming Saturday.
And if Elizabeth Smits can continue to run like she has for most of this season (as a legitimate low-stick), then the top-end ceiling for this team is definitely better than what we saw the other week -- which was still pretty good.
Well, well, well, the fight for the last spot in our rankings ended up being between the two best teams in Portland -- the Jesuit Crusaders and the Lincoln Cardinals.
Jesuit took down Lincoln at the Oregon XC State Championships, 32 points to 46 points. But one week later at NXR Northwest Championships, the script was flipped with Lincoln coming out on top, winning 84 points to 106 points.
For that reason, they Cardinals have held on to the last spot in our rankings.
A big reason behind that flipping of results was the improved performances of Lincoln's second and third runners: Sophia Malinoski (29th) and Keira Saavedra (41st). Both of these athletes ran a good 15 seconds faster at the NXR Northwest meet than at the state meet, something that Jesuit could not match.
That middle-lineup scoring ultimately gave Lincoln the push that they needed to bring home the regional title. And with Ellery Lincoln (15th) and Amelia James (46th) continuing to offer great value in their own roles, you can see why taking down this team twice is a wildly challenging task.
Don’t be surprised if the Lincoln Cardinals outperform their ranking this coming weekend. They are one of only two teams in the field that don’t have to deal with major travel and have something of a “home course advantage.”
Flower Mound Jaguars (TX)
Santiago Corona Sharks (CA)
Lucas Lovejoy Leopards (TX)
Union Catholic Vikings (NJ)
Union Catholic Vikings (NJ)
Lucas Lovejoy Leopards (TX)
Assumption Rockets (KY)
Portland Jesuit Crusaders (OR)
Saratoga Springs Blue Streaks (NY)
Buchanan Bears (CA)
Mount Prospect Knights (IL)
American Fork Cavewomen (UT)
Webb of Knoxville Spartans (TN)
Downers Grove North Trojans (IL)
North Allegheny Tigers (PA)