Maura Beattie
Jul 24, 202215 min
Additional commentary and edits by Garrett Zatlin
New Mexico's Gracelyn Larkin has improved tremendously on the cross country course during her career thus far. The Lobo standout placed 122nd at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships, but quickly shot up to 25th place at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships and then to 21st at the cross country national meet last fall.
But now the question is...how much better can Larkin get?
During the fall of 2021, Larkin was fairly consistent. She didn’t open up her season until October at the Joe Piane Invitational and she did so with a rust-busting 26th place finish.
But, two weeks later, we saw Larkin begin to reach her full potential en route to an outstanding 15th place showing at Nuttycombe. The New Mexico women later ran as a pack at the Mountain West XC Championships where Larkin was 3rd across the line before finishing 4th at her regional meet.
And like we already, at the NCAA XC Championships, Larkin had what was easily the best cross country race of her career, finishing 21st overall, only four seconds out of the top-15.
Larkin's cross country success translated incredibly well to the indoor oval when she ran a then-PR of 15:41 in the 5k. This performance qualified the Lobo for the indoor national meet where she earned her second All-American honor of the academic year by finishing 8th.
And during the spring months? Larkin was flat-out awesome. The rising New Mexico star reset her personal bests in the 1500 meters (4:18), the 5k (15:29) and the 10k (33:10). Larkin would later pick up another All-American honor at Hayward Field when she finished 7th in the 5000 meters.
Suddenly, when looking at Larkin's marks, she had one of the most complete resumes in the country.
The rising New Mexico junior was extremely consistent during the 2021-2022 academic year, always finding herself amongst the top of the field whenever she raced. Now, admittedly, Larkin recently competed in the 5k for Canada at the World Athletics Championships, so she may get a later start to her 2022 cross country season.
Even so, by the time the championship portion of the season begins, Larkin will be one you want to watch for. She is easily one of the more reliable names in the country and her track times suggest that we haven't fully seen her fullest potential on the grass.
Yes, some of Larkin's individual marks may not indicate that she's a top-10 runner this fall, but when you look at the entirety of her resume, it's hard to dismiss her from this tier.
It is sometimes hard to gauge where Grace Forbes is, fitness-wise, during the season because she doesn’t always compete at the highest profile meets. Of course, that’s no fault of her own.
Forbes is an experienced athlete on the national stage and after a less-than-ideal (but still solid) finish at last fall’s NCAA XC Championships, the Rice Owl will be on a revenge tour to earn her second cross country All-American honor.
So far, at cross country national meets, Forbes has finished 87th in 2019, 19th in the winter of 2021 and 45th in the fall of 2021. The Rice star went into the NCAA XC Championships last year with an almost perfect winning record. Her only loss (if that’s what you really want to call a 2nd place showing) came to Taryn O'Neill who was a megastar throughout last fall.
Forbes easily won the rest of her races that season, minus the national meet, essentially running time trials through her regional meet.
On the national stage, the Rice standout had an "off" day and finished three seconds outside of the top-40. She then didn’t contest the indoor track season for unknown reasons. Yet, she came out hungry during the spring and capitalized on her fitness with her best showing at a national meet, finishing 2nd in the 10,000 meters.
Rice typically stays in Texas for most of their meets, and although she did race at Paul Short, trying to find major takeaways from that field is admittedly a challenge.
Forbes will most likely go unchallenged at many of her cross country meets this year before taking on Arkansas at the South Central Regional XC Championships and then the nation’s best at the NCAA XC Championships.
And although her competition may be limited, Forbes can still be an elite star. She has a 10k silver medal, a 10k personal best of 32:24 from the spring of 2021, a crazy-quick 3k time of 8:56 and a previous top-20 All-American finish on the grass.
If Forbes puts it altogether this fall, then she could threaten for a top-three spot in our rankings by season's end.
New Mexico’s Emma Heckel began her career as a Rice Owl, but after redshirting her first year, she transferred to the Lobos at the beginning of the 2021-2022 academic year. Since then, she has made an immediate impact and could potentially lead an upset bid over the NC State women later this year.
In her debut NCAA season last fall, Heckel excelled on the cross country course. She picked up two 16th place finishes at Joe Piane and Nuttycombe two weeks apart. On paper, those were fantastic finishes, with Nuttycombe arguably being more impressive than her Joe Piane result. She was then the Mountain West Conference runner-up, proving to us that the then-redshirt freshman could race like a true veteran.
After her 11th place finish in a historically deep Mountain Regional XC Championship, Heckel would earn her first All-American honor in Tallahassee with an eyebrow-raising 18th place finish. Not only did she lead the Lady Lobos individually, but she helped them land a spot on the podium, giving them better than-expected scoring potency.
Heckel wasn’t as dominant on the indoor or outdoor ovals as she was during the cross country season, but personal bests of 15:41 (5k) and 33:05 (10k) are no walk in the park. She would go on to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships in the 5k as well as the NCAA Outdoor Championships in both the 5k and the 10k, earning respectable non-All-American finishes in most of her appearances.
With the 2022 cross country season on the horizon, Heckel has a lot going for her if she can replicate, and then build upon, her 2021 performances. She has proven that she is strong on the grass and with Oklahoma State’s course being a tough one, Heckel should theoretically thrive on that course.
This fall will be Covert’s third cross country season for the Colorado Buffaloes and she is no longer an underdog after qualifying for numerous NCAA Championships during the 2021-2022 academic year.
Covert was a well-accomplished high school runner out of Minnesota before arriving in Boulder, Colorado. After redshirting a year, she had a respectable season debut during the winter cross country season which ended with a 96th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.
But in the fall of 2021? Well, Covert reached an entirely new level.
The Buffalo long distance star had two top-three finishes to start her season, crossing the line in 2nd place at the Wyoming Invite and 3rd at the top-heavy Cowboy Jamboree.
However, Covert really took off from there when she competed at Pre-Nationals. Heads had to have turned in Tallahassee as Covert was the fifth competitor to cross the finish line. From there, Covert's momentum was at an all-time as she went on to place 2nd at the PAC-12 XC Championships, validating her Pre-Nationals performance and establishing herself as a true NCAA star.
Covert would go on to earn her first All-American honor at the cross country national meet by finishing 31st in a deep field. The Colorado women were a podium team with Covert’s performance, although on paper, there was reason to believe that Covert could have a finish somewhere in the top-20 (at least).
After two track seasons that saw the rising Buffalo star run personal bests in the 3k (9:04), 5k (15:35) and 10k (32:30), it is clear that Covert has upped her game even higher since the fall cross country season. She was the 4th place finisher in the 10k in June and is one of the top returners from nearly every 2021 cross country meet.
On paper, Covert is a near-perfect cross country runner. She's the top returner from the PAC-12 XC Championships and the second-best returner from Pre-Nationals. The Buffalo ace thrives in high-profile races and simply don't have too much on her resume worthy of criticism.
There is a legitimate argument for Covert to be ranked in our top-five...and we probably wouldn't argue. However, her national meet finish from last fall certainly left us wanting more. A 31st place All-American finish is still really darn good, but we have yet to truly see Covert's fullest potential on the national stage.
That, however, won't stop her from moving up our rankings later this fall if has continued success, even before the national meet.
Although Kelsey Chmiel hasn’t raced since her 5k/3k double at the 2022 indoor national meet, her extensive experience and lengthy resume from past cross country seasons goes unmatched.
The NC State star will be in search of her fourth cross country All-American honor this fall and based on the improvements that she has made in her placements over the years, we don't have any reason to doubt her.
Chmiel’s cross country record includes a 24th place All-American finish in 2019, a huge 9th place finish in the winter of 2021 and a recent 6th place finish in the fall of 2021. Her consistency as an All-American, paired with her rise as a true cross country superstar, is what makes her a promising candidate for a top-10 ranking this summer.
During the 2021 fall season, the Wolfpack standout recorded five top-three finishes, a level of elite consistency that very few women have since matched.
A 3rd place finish at Joe Piane and a 2nd place showing at Nuttycombe validated Chmiel's top-10 national meet finish from the winter. Then, she delivered with two winning performances at the ACC XC Championships and the Southeast XC Regional Championships
Aside from her 6th place finish at the national meet, Chmiel was the leading lady for the Wolfpack en route to the team title, defeating BYU by 38 points. Her momentum then carried over to the indoor oval, a winter season which was highlighted by PRs across the board. She opened the track season with a 15:24 (5k) PR and then ran times of 4:36 (mile) and 8:55 (3k flat-track converted).
As long as she is healthy this fall, NC State will once again look to Chmiel to place amongst the top-10 at the national meet and aid the Wolfpack in winning another NCAA team title. And frankly, there isn't really a flaw or weak point on her resume. Chmiel is simply fantastic every time she toes the line. She is, easily, one of the most reliable distance runners in the country.
Her TSR #6 ranking may seem a bit conservative given everything that we've said, but that's largely because she was absent from competition this past spring. And if that's the only thing that we can nit-pick about her, then Chmiel should be set for another great cross country season.
Florida’s Parker Valby really broke out during the 2022 indoor track season after she threw down a jaw-dropping 8:53 (3k) at Kentucky in late-January. Unfortunately, she would later suffer a foot injury which derailed the remainder of her indoor season and most of her outdoor season.
However, the Florida youngster then came out guns blazing late in the spring, thriving at the SEC Outdoor Championships and then challenging Katelyn Tuohy for the NCAA title in the 5k, settling for silver and earning a new PR of 15:20.
If we were to stop the analysis there, that's really all that you would need to know about Valby. There are few women in the NCAA whose ranking can be solely carried by one or two performances.
And in Valby's case, her ability to legitimately challenge Tuohy at the peak of her powers is what carries her into our top-five.
When we look at her 2021 cross country season, Valby started out fairly slowly after a runner-up finish at the Mountain Dew Gator XC Invite. At Joe Piane, the Gator ace finished a respectable 36th place and was then 28th at Pre-Nationals. Based on these two major meet performances, not many would’ve expected Valby to have the end to her season that she did.
During the championship portion of the 2021 fall season, the underclassman star placed a strong 4th at the SEC XC Championships, taking down numerous veterans in the process as well as a handful of women listed in the TSR #20 to TSR #11 section of our rankings.
A runner-up finish at the South XC Regional Championships eventually put Valby in the position to vie for an All-American honor where she delivered with a 27th place finish.
For Valby to finish in the top-10 at the NCAA XC Championships this fall, it will be imperative for her to remain healthy. We also know that she has the potential to earn another All-American honor, but after the incredible end to her outdoor track season, trying to figure out how high up she'll actually finish in Stillwater, Oklahoma (or where she'll rank in the NCAA in general) is biggest challenge when constructing our XC Top 50.
Still, there probably isn't anyone in our rankings who has benefitted from their track success more than Valby. We simply believe in her that much.
The fall of 2021 was the season of Ceili McCabe.
The West Virginia Mountaineer was incredible every time she toed the line, delivering top-tier finishes week after week.
Prior to the winter 2021 cross country season, McCabe hadn’t competed at a national meet on the track nor the cross country course. Yet, after finishing 4th at the BIG 12 XC Championships in the pandemic-altered 2020 fall cross country season, The WVU ace had the opportunity to compete at the unprecedented the NCAA Winter XC Championships where she finished 42nd overall.
And while that result was encouraging, we wouldn't truly see McCabe reach that next tier of competitiveness until the spring. During the 2021 outdoor track season, she would run 9:37 in the steeplechase, a time that produced a 6th place All-American finish.
But little did we know that McCabe's All-American steeple honor would only be the tip of the iceberg for an unbelievably impressive 2021-22 academic calendar year.
Seven months later, McCabe began her fall cross country season with a win at the Louisville Classic. That was a solid start to her season, but her result didn't at all indicate what would happen next.
It was the Nuttycombe Invitational that truly established the West Virginia star as a distance running elite. McCabe won the race, taking down a huge field loaded with strong All-American stars, effectively forcing the country to revaluate just how good she truly was.
That Nuttycombe result propelled her to two more victories, one at the BIG 12 XC Championships and then one at her regional meet. Her undefeated streak was snapped at the NCAA XC Championship, after finishing 3rd, but all things considered, that result may have been her best.
McCabe would later pick up PRs on the indoor and outdoor ovals, running 4:38 in the mile, 8:52 in the 3k and 9:31 in the steeplechase. That latter PR would earn her bronze at the outdoor national meet.
Between the improvements in time and the progression in her overall placement, this Mountaineer star is heading in the right direction as we inch closer to the fall. McCabe has the potential to win an NCAA title come November. Her ongoing rise and massive improvements across all three seasons gives her upside that few women of her caliber should still be able to boast.
The NCAA XC Championships are going to be held on the Oklahoma State cross country course and Roe will have home course advantage (again).
Roe truly broke onto the national scene when she finished runner-up on her home course at the NCAA Winter XC Championships, a monumental result that completely altered the trajectory of her career (for the better).
The fall 2021 cross country season then began in a moderate manner for Roe as she placed 4th and then placed 1st in her first two home meets at Oklahoma State before really finding her groove against the NCAA’s best distance talents.
Traveling up to Nuttycombe, the Cowgirl star had a strong showing by placing 3rd behind two experienced runners in West Virginia's Ceili McCabe and NC State’s Kelsey Chmiel. Another 3rd place performance was in the making for Roe at the BIG 12 XC Championships as she finished four seconds out of the win.
With a runner-up result at her regional meet, the Cowgirl’s low-stick had the chance to record another top finish at an NCAA XC Championship. Roe wasn’t able to match her runner-up performance from the NCAA Winter XC Championships, but a 5th place finish added to her reputation as one of the most clutch national meet runners in the country.
And if you didn't buy into that label during the fall, then you certainly did during the winter.
Roe's long-awaited NCAA title came at the indoor national meet after she made a massive move late in the 3000 meters, blowing away the field and securing gold in thrilling fashion. During the spring, Roe would later drop a 15:21 (5k) PR and her third All-American honor of the academic year that event.
On paper, everything about the upcoming cross country season favors Roe. She boasts tons of national meet experience, is plenty familiar with her competition, often peaks at national meets and is very consistent.
However, maybe more importantly, Roe will be returning to the national meet course (her home course) where she produced a silver medal. With no reason to doubt her abilities and a proven history of this course favoring her talent, we opted to put Roe at TSR #3.
Alright, we're sure some people will strong disagree with this ranking, but give us a chance here. Give this a read and then read our next name. After that, feel free to let us know if you disagree.
Tuohy has both a lethal kick and strong endurance, a combination of racing tools that not many of her competitors can match. The NC State superstar enters the 2022 cross country season after winning her first NCAA title this past spring.
And come November, she will have the opportunity to her earn second title.
We have known that Tuohy was going to make a big splash on the college scene following her dominating high school career in New York, but did we think it would happen this soon? It depends on who you ask...
The Wolfpack ace earned her first All-American honor in cross country at the winter cross country championships in 2021 after finishing 24th overall. Keep in mind that this was her first NCAA cross country race.
Not just her first of that season. Her first NCAA cross country race ever.
Tuohy was later instrumental in the NC State women winning the team title at last fall’s national cross country meet after crossing the line in 15th place, the second member of the Wolfpack behind Kelsey Chmiel.
Prior to her showing at the NCAA XC Championships, Tuohy recorded five top-eight finishes during the course of the fall month. Her 8th and 5th place finishes at Joe Piane and Nuttycombe, respectively, set her up nicely for two runner-up placings at the ACC XC Championships and the Southeast Regional XC Championships.
Of course, those results weren't exactly indicative of her full potential.
During the winter, Tuohy was runner-up (twice) at the indoor indoor meet, coming oh-so-close to winning both the 3k and the 5k. And while we could say that she used those lessons from the indoor national meet to help her win an NCAA title in the 5k, one year after former teammate Elly Henes won, it was clear that Tuohy's fitness simply outgrew her competition.
The Wolfpack star posted an unbelievable time of 4:06 in the 1500 meters and also ran an all-time mark of 15:14 for 5000 meters earlier in the season.
We completely understand if someone wants to rank Tuohy at TSR #1. Honestly, we wouldn't argue. Her progression on the track far outweighs any trivial concerns about her on the grass. Her raw fitness and unlimited upside could easily lead to her going undefeated this fall en route to NCAA gold.
Still, Chelangat is far more proven on the grass. And when it comes to the longer distances, Chelangat thrives in races like the 5k and the 10k where as Tuohy, for now, has focused on the 1500 meters, the 3k and the 5k. Although, in fairness to Tuohy, the 6k during cross country isn't too far off from Tuohy's ideal 5k racing distance.
There's a very good chance that Tuohy takes over our TSR #1 before season's end. But if we're rewarding cross country specialists based on the results that we already have, then Chelangat gets the nod...for now.
In her final cross country season with Alabama, Mercy Chelangat has the chance to repeat as an NCAA XC Champion, a title that she won during the winter 2021 season.
The Alabama senior is one of the best in the game when it comes to long distance running and she has shown her elite strength numerous times on the cross country course. After winning her first cross country title in March 2021, Chelangat was on track to win again in the fall of 2021.
She began her 2021 season at Joe Piane and won right off the bat, holding off teammate Flomena Asekol by four-tenths of a second. Chelangat continued her winning ways next at the SEC XC Championships, this time winning by nine seconds. One more win was in the cards for Chelangat at her regional meet, setting her up for a big performance at the NCAA XC Championships.
Chelangat wasn’t able to keep pace with BYU’s Whittni Orton at the national meet as she couldn’t quite match Orton’s foot-speed in the end. Still, the Alabama ace was able to hang on for 2nd place, a fantastic and highly impressive result.
And with an undefeated season behind her, that performance obviously makes Chelangat the top returner for this upcoming fall.
After very solid indoor and outdoor track seasons, highlighted by a national title in the 10k, Chelangat will have the chance to go for a third individual national title. And if there's ever a time for her to win her second cross country title, it's likely in the fall months after coming off the high of a 10k national title.
Chelangat, admittedly, will have her work cut-out for her when racing against some of the nation’s best, especially if Tuohy is the elite megastar that she was during the spring. Still, when it comes to the grass, Chelangat has a resume that is simply unmatched...for now.