Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Aug 29, 20229 min
There might not be a women's cross country team in the NCAA that is more fascinating and more exciting than the Alabama women.
Over the last few years, the Crimson Tide have risen to national prominence, thriving at the NCAA Winter XC Championships and earning another strong national meet finish last fall despite not having one of their top scorers.
Depth, however, has always been a challenge for both the men and women from Tuscaloosa. But in 2022, that narrative may be changing. The Alabama women not only return an elite trio of All-American stars, but they have also improved the second-half of their scoring lineup in a major way.
Could this team be a podium team come November?
100%.
In fact, as the season progresses, that may be their floor.
After an incredible showing at the winter cross country national meet where they placed 8th overall, the Alabama women ventured into the fall months with high expectations placed upon their shoulders.
But despite the pressure, the Crimson Tide seemed to be unfazed in the early portions of the fall season.
At Joe Piane, Alabama thrived. The duo of Mercy Chelangat and their newest low-stick, Flomena Asekol, took the top-two overall spots in a field that featured elite distance running powerhouses such as NC State and New Mexico.
Chelangat is someone who we knew was amongst the absolute best in the NCAA, but Asekol's emergence as a true low-stick injected an unexpected boost of scoring potency into this lineup.
With veteran Esther Gitahi securing a very strong 14th place finish of her own, Alabama was able to secure a one-point edge over the NC State women through three runners. And with Amaris Tyynismaa, the bronze medalist at the winter cross country national meet, placing 28th overall, the Crimson Tide looked incredible through four scorers.
But with Alabama's final scorer placing 103rd overall, the Crimson Tide were eventually overtaken by the Wolfpack as well as the New Mexico Lobos.
Still, Alabama finished 3rd overall in an absolutely loaded regular season meet. They scored 147 points and comfortably defeated a 4th place Washington team as well as numerous other top-tier programs.
For the Crimson Tide, there was tons to be optimistic about after that statement race. Of course, the rest of their season would ultimately dictate how they were viewed in the NCAA's hierarchy teams.
After not appearing in any further regular season meets, opting to stay at home rather than venture to Nuttycombe or Pre-Nationals, Alabama prepared themselves for the SEC XC Championships. On paper, they had the necessary firepower to take down both Arkansas and Ole Miss for the conference title.
That, however, did not happen.
Chelangat was once again phenomenal by taking home the individual win. Asekol and Tyynismaa also ran very well, earning 7th and 8th place finishes, respectively. And with Gitahi placing 11th, the Crimson Tide looked unstoppable through four runners.
Unfortunately, the Crimson Tide's fifth woman wouldn't cross the line until 69th place, a finish that sent Alabama's team score soaring through the roof. And when the final points were tallied, the women from Tuscaloosa had to settle for a 3rd place finish, 28 points off from Arkansas, eight points off from Ole Miss and only two points ahead of Kentucky.
And to make matters worse, this would be the last time that Tyynismaa would toe the line for the rest of the season.
Despite the tough result, there still had to be optimism for the Alabama women. Their top-four scorers were simply incredible and they could be nationally competitive even without Tyynismaa. Plus, on paper, a larger field like the national meet favored their lineup structure.
Alabama would later place 3rd in their region, plagued once again by a limited backend. Still, the Crimson Tide had plenty of Kolas points and ultimately advanced to the national meet.
But which version of Alabama would we see in Tallahassee? How would they fare without Tyynismaa? How would the late-season rise of Jami Reed impact this group? How effective would this lineup structure be in a 250-person field?
Well, for the most part, many of those questions were answered favorably.
Chelangat would go on to finish 2nd overall on the national stage, delivering a phenomenal postseason result once again. Asekol, despite her limited Division One experience, still thrived, finishing 29th overall to give Alabama a second All-American. And with Gitahi placing 55th, it was hard to be upset with the Crimson Tide's scoring trio.
Of course, as was the case all season long, gaps in the latter-half of this lineup limited the impact of Alabama's front-runners. The Crimson Tide's final two scorers placed 193rd and 225th overall to close out the scoring.
And yet, despite that, Alabama walked away with a 15th place finish which, in the grand scheme of things, was a phenomenal result.
Now, as we enter 2022, the sky is the limit for a team that, through five runners, may not have any weaknesses...at all.
Let's quickly get the bad news out of the way: Esther Gitahi is now gone and that just flat-out stinks. At her best, she's an All-American and at her worst, she is still one of the best third or fourth scorers that the NCAA has to offer.
For most teams that were already limited on depth, that would be a major problem. Alabama couldn't afford to give up any scoring potency last fall, especially when Tyynismaa was sidelined.
But unbelievably, as we look at Alabama's roster in 2022, we can't help but realize that her departure, while not ideal, should be far from cataclysmic. In fact, we think Alabama could be significantly better than they were last fall.
And yes, even better when they had Tyynismaa racing in the early portion of the 2021 season.
Look, we could talk about Mercy Chelangat forever. Her resume is so unbelievably impressive and she may be the most reliable front-runner in the country right now. We have her ranked at TSR #1 in our preseason rankings and regardless of how you feel about Tuohy, you know that you're always going to get at least two points out of this Alabama star.
Instead, let's shift our attention to another All-American returner, Flomena Asekol. The former JUCO standout was fantastic in her first year at the Division One level. She stunned the country with a runner-up finish at Joe Piane and although she never replicated that performance throughout the rest of the season, Asekol was still excellent.
A 29th place All-American finish at last year's national meet was extremely encouraging. Her performances on the track, running 4:12 for 1500 meters and advancing to the outdoor national meet, was also a sign of sustained success.
Much like Chelangat, we don't have many concerns about Asekol. In fact, we're probably just as high as on her now as we were when she finished runner-up at Joe Piane. If she was able to earn a top-30 All-American finish in her first season at the Division One level, then how much better can she be with 'Bama in year two?
Asekol is ranked at TSR #14 in our preseason individual rankings, and that's a phenomenal spot for her. However, she might not even be the second-best runner on her team this fall.
That's because Amaris Tyynismaa is expected to return to this team at 100% health.
The winter of 2021 was a jaw-dropping breakout season for the once-young Alabama superstar. After throwing down incredible marks on the indoor oval, Tyynismaa secured a monumental 3rd place finish at the winter cross country national meet.
But the Crimson Tide ace didn't seem to be at 100% last fall. That's because she was nursing an injury which turned out to be significantly more serious than initially expected. She ended her season after the SEC XC Championships and didn't race again until the fall months.
Usually, there would be major concern from TSR about Tyynismaa's fitness and status going into the upcoming cross country season. After all, if this Alabama ace isn't the All-American talent that we think she will be, then the ceiling for the Crimson Tide women becomes significantly more limited.
Of course, her performances this past spring suggest that she is, in fact, still a top-40 talent on the grass. Tyynismaa may not have matched her 15:33 (5k) personal best from the spring of 2021, but she did run 15:42 back in May, peaking at the right time and eventually qualifying for the outdoor national meet.
Despite her setback from last year, Tyynismaa rallied throughout last spring. She showed us that she could still be a top-tier talent and that her breakout winter and spring campaigns in 2021 were far from being flukes.
In fact, we even have her ranked at TSR #11 in our preseason individual rankings this fall!
But even if Tyynismaa doesn't emerge as a top-15 name over the next few months, her being a top-25 or top-30 runner would be more than okay. She just needs to be a lock for an All-American result come November, especially with a major level of uncertainty lingering in the backend of this lineup...
It's no secret that Alabama's biggest weak point over the last few seasons has been the final few spots in their varsity lineup. For as good as the Crimson Tide low-sticks have been, their impact has been limited by how far their final scorer(s) could go.
But in 2022, that narrative may be changing.
Allow us to introduce to you Hilda Chebet (also known as Hilda Olemomoi), a JUCO standout who could dramatically alter this Alabama lineup for the better.
During her time at Iowa Western CC, we saw Chebet dominate the JUCO scene. While many of her times were fairly modest, her 5k personal best of 16:07 captures your attention in a very unique way.
Chebet also won NJCCA titles this past spring in the 1500 meters, the 5000 meters and the 10,000 meters...all at the same meet. It was a similar story during the winter months when she won the mile, the 3000 meters and the 5000 meters.
Talk about relentless...
Trying to gauge what kind of impact Chebet will have for Alabama is not easy. While she very clearly has tremendous upside and has yet to be truly challenged, there's no guarantee that she'll be an All-American of even a top-100 finisher at the national meet.
But frankly, even if she still manages to capture a top-150 spot at the NCAA XC Championships, then that would still be a major improvement in Alabama's team score.
That, however, feels like the near-worst case scenario for Chebet. In reality, she could emerge as an All-American candidate this fall. Let's not forget, Asekol and Gitahi were both former JUCO standouts in their own right while Chelangat was previously at a small mid-major program (UT-Rio Grande Valley).
All three of those women went on to become All-Americans at the Division One level.
Simply put, if there is a D1 distance program that is going to get the most out of Hilda Chebet, it's going to be Coach Will Palmer and this Alabama coaching staff.
"Ok sure, that's great Garrett, but what about Alabama's fifth and final scoring spot? That's still a weak point for them, right?"
I'm glad you asked, hypothetical reader.
In short, no.
We haven't even mentioned Jasmijn Bakker yet, an incoming steeplechase standout from the Netherlands. And on paper, this Dutch distance star could be just as impactful as Chebet, maybe even more so.
The reason we say that is because Bakker has run an outstanding 3000 meter steeplechase personal best of 9:55. And while the rest of her resume is modest in comparison, that steeple mark is hard to ignore. She was also the 4th place finisher at the 2019 U23 European XC Championships.
If Bakker emerges as a top-100 runner, then TSR #6 will be an underwhelming ranking for Alabama. If that happens, then you might as well lock-in the Crimson Tide for the podium.
And if she turns out to be a top-50 runner or even an All-American, then maybe, just maybe, we're talking about Alabama as a national title contender this fall. And as unbelievable as that was to say, I don't think it's an outlandish take, either.
Not only that, but Alabama is also adding two superstar recruits in Samantha McDonnell (CA) and Crawford West (AL)!
McDonnell has run 4:38 (mile), 10:12 (3200) and 16:43 (5k XC). She placed 6th at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships last fall. West, meanwhile, has run 4:46 (mile), 10:18 (3200) and 17:06 (5k XC). She placed 6th at the Eastbay South Regional XC Championships last fall.
Could McDonnell or West emerge as top-seven runners this fall? Yes, absolutely. If someone in this Alabama lineup gets injured or if one of their newest roster additions doesn't fully acclimate to the Division One level, then McDonnell or West could limit excessive scoring at the backend of this team's top-seven.
Other names such as Kate Dickman (a 4:44 mile transfer from Illinois), Elka Machan (a Ball State transfer who was the 4th place finisher from the 2021 MAC XC Championships) and Jami Reed (a veteran returner who was 6th at the 2020 SEC XC Championships) all have avenues to be potential impact names this fall.
I'll admit, even as I'm typing this, I'm wondering, "Gosh, did we rob Alabama of a few spots in our rankings?" And honestly, anyone who says we did might be right.
The proven scoring potency on this team is elite and the potential scoring potency that Alabama could have in 2022 is beyond elite -- it's special.
And yet, at the same time, there are perfectly good reasons as to why we should be cautious about this team heading into the fall months.
There's no guarantee that Chebet or Bakker will translate their past successes to the Division One level or that they'll do it consistently.
We also don't know if McDonnell or West are going to be immediate impact contributors.
Trying to gauge expectations for Tyynismaa this fall is also a challenge.
There also doesn't appear to be a good answer as to who the sixth and seventh runners in this lineup will be. And even if we did know, then we're not even sure if they could offer legitimate scoring support should someone in Alabama's top-five have a poor race.
And last, but maybe most importantly, we just haven't seen Alabama at this level before. Unlike the next five teams in our rankings, the Crimson Tide don't have the same long-standing history of distance running success in comparison.
But...will any of that even matter? Should that really take away from the mass level of talent on this roster? There's a good chance that by the time the postseason arrives, everything that I just said will largely be irrelevant.
If Alabama delivers on their full potential, then we fully believe that they could pull off an upset and win a national title. Their ceiling is simply that high.
And no, we don't think that's an exaggeration.