Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Aug 10, 20229 min
It feels almost wrong to put the Florida State women at TSR #24.
Historically, this program is much better than a fringe team that is barely hanging on to the edge of our summer rankings. Thinking that they won't be favored for a top-two or top-three spot in the ACC this fall is a fairly big deviation from the norm.
Yes, it's true, the Seminoles do lose a few extremely valuable front-runners and middle-lineup contributors from last year's squad. However, with the return of numerous scorers and the introduction of sneaky-good recruits, one has to believe that Florida State will continue to be nationally competitive in 2022.
With the exception of one race, Florida State's 2021 cross country season seemed to be fairly steady. Most of their results were in-line with the expectations we had and they never had a major reason for concern.
Last fall, the Seminoles started their season on their home turf, toeing the line for the FSU XC Open, a smaller meet which held a few nationally competitive teams such as BYU, Furman and Southern Utah.
In that race, the Florida State women settled for a very unsurprising 2nd place team finish, falling 27 points behind the Cougars but pulling away from the Paladins by over 30 points.
Star low-stick Lauren Ryan finished 5th overall while Agnes McTighe and Duke graduate transfer Amanda Beach secured solid 8th and 9th place finishes. For McTighe, this was a very promising result for the youngster. She gave the Seminoles another reliable scorer in the middle portion of their lineup, complementing Ryan's low-stick presence.
Veteran Maudie Skyring finished 13th overall while teammate Rebecca Clark closed the scoring with a 16th place finish. Fellow teammate Alyson Churchill was close behind in 17th place.
For the most part, it was a solid showing for the FSU women, but far greater challenges lied ahead. Luckily, the 'Noles seemed well prepared for that.
At the Joe Piane Invitational, Florida State ran exactly as we thought they would, securing a very solid 7th place team finish.
And sure, that spot wasn't amazing, but when you look at the teams who placed ahead of them, it was hard to be surprised that the Seminoles finished where they did.
In that race, Lauren Ryan finished 20th overall, taking home top scoring honors for the FSU women. While that was certainly not a poor performance by any means, it still felt like there was some additional scoring potency left on the table.
Ryan, after all, seemed like someone who could have been a top-10 finisher, individually.
From there, a noticeable gap formed, although the next three FSU runners still finished within the top 50, keeping most of the team's excessive scoring to a minimum. The combination of Skyring, Beach and McTighe ended up placing 41st, 42nd and 46th, respectively.
As far as team scoring structured was concerned, that was a very promising string of results.
FSU was admittedly hurt by their fifth runner falling to 95th place overall. Still, the 'Noles had a top-four that was just as good as the teams who finished ahead of them, maybe even better.
Then Pre-Nationals rolled around, a meet that was held on FSU's home course.
And naturally, the Seminoles took full advantage.
In what was unquestionably the greatest team performance of their 2021 cross country season, the Florida State women secured a monster 3rd place finish. They scored just 163 points, losing only to Colorado and Utah, the latter of which was 14 points away.
Not only did Lauren Ryan deliver on expectations, she far exceeded them. A 3rd place finish in a loaded field reflected her full potential. It also gave her squad the necessary edge to earn a finish this high in the team standings.
However, the real heroes were the next three scorers in FSU's lineup.
McTighe and Skyring were extremely impressive, earning two top-40 individual finishes by placing 33rd and 37th place, respectively. But it was Rebecca Clark who may have had one of the better races of her career, securing a clutch 38th place finish.
With Amanda Beach placing 52nd overall, the 'Noles didn't have to worry about the backend of their lineup or any excessive scoring. And by just looking at the results, FSU appeared to be one of the most complete teams in the country.
But when fast forwarding to the ACC XC Championships, we found the Florida State women coming back down to Earth. The Seminoles still earned a strong 3rd place team finish, but they had no one in the top-10 (Ryan placed 11th) and only two women in the top-20 (Skyring impressed with a 13th place finish).
Falling to a young and inexperienced North Carolina group, which beat Florida State by 15 points, was a bit surprising and it emphasized the adjustments that FSU would need to make going forward.
Still, that race hardly anything to be majorly concerned about. Placing 3rd in one of the deepest conferences in the country is not at all a bad thing.
After a runner-up finish at the South Regional XC Championships, where they lost only to Ole Miss and beat Alabama by 13 points, the Florida State women set their sites on the national stage. And when you considered how well they ran on their home course at Pre-Nationals, it was hard not to be optimistic about their chances the second time around.
But instead, what we saw from the Seminoles at the NCAA XC Championship was a better reflection of how they performed at the FSU XC Open, at Joe Piane and at the ACC XC Championships. When the scores were tallied, the team finished 19th overall.
Lauren Ryan brought home a strong 26th place finish individually, giving FSU a nice scoring spark at the front of their lineup that we didn't necessarily see at the ACC XC Championships. However, no one else finished in the top-110 spots, individually.
Skyring (115th) and Clark (116th) were solid middle lineup contributors, earning two top-100 scoring spots in the team standings. And while that duo didn't necessarily offer major firepower, they still produced reasonable scoring stability behind Ryan.
From there, FSU's final two runners faltered, but the team had still done enough to crack the top-20 at the national meet.
As we attempt to evaluate and properly rank this team going into the 2022 cross country season, we find ourselves split.
On one hand, the Florida State women lose numerous high-impact scorers, almost all of whom were the most pivotal members of the team's top-five last fall.
However, on the other hand, this team is quietly loaded with highly respectable depth, tons of underrated names and a handful of individuals who, in the past, have had national-caliber success.
FSU loses Lauren Ryan, Maudie Skyring, Amanda Beach and Erin Phelps -- which is brutal. That means, from the national meet, they lost their first, second, fourth and fifth scorers. From Pre-Nationals, that was their first, third, fifth and sixth runners. And from Joe Piane, that was their first three scorers who crossed the line, as well as their eighth runner.
We are also under the impression that Jennifer Lima, a backend varsity contributor from last fall, is also not returning.
To put it simply, Florida State is going to have a very different identity later this fall. The established veterans who once headlined this program and are gone, and they bring with them most of the team's scoring.
Expecting the Seminoles to be as good as they were last year, while certainly not impossible, is going to be a major challenge. And if we believe that a 19th place finish at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships was a proper reflection of this team's actual abilities, then seeing them fall back to TSR #24 seems almost generous.
Of course, the number of women who return to this squad in 2022, as well as the new names who will be coming to campus in a few weeks time, could allow Florida State to remain amongst the better teams in the country this fall.
Agnes McTighe was great last year. Sure, she wasn't a low-stick, but she was young and she showed signs of potentially being a true front-runner one day.
Placing 8th at the FSU XC Open, 46th at Joe Piane and 33rd at Pre-Nationals were promising results. Her regular season was encouraging and she provided great value as a scorer. However, her postseason left us wanting a little more.
At the tail-end of last season, McTighe was 28th at the ACC XC Championships and then 50th at the South Regional XC Championships before recording a DNF result at the NCAA XC Championships.
Still, despite the postseason inconsistencies, we have good reason to believe that McTighe can potentially be a low-stick for the FSU women over the next few months. She may not be at Lauren Ryan's level this fall, but she doesn't have to be. If she were to improve 10 spots from her Pre-Nationals finish (consistently), then that would be huge.
Then there is Rebecca Clark, the rising veteran who has some sneaky-good performances on her resume. For the most part, she was solid last year, proving to be fairly consistent while flexing respectable finishes of 38th at Joe Piane and 22nd at the ACC XC Championships.
However, that is far from her full potential.
After all, this is someone who earned All-American honors at the NCAA Winter XC Championships, placing 40th on that stage. In fact, that entire winter season was a good one for Clark who also ran times of 9:25 (3k) and 16:02 (5k).
Clarke can be a true low-stick for FSU this fall, but she'll need to channel whatever fitness she found in the March of 2021 if that is going to happen -- and she'll need to do it consistently.
Even so, McTighe and Clarke make a solid 1-2 punch for this team. The only issue, however, is trying to figure out what the rest of this lineup is going to look like.
Veteran Elizabeth Funderburk could play a role for FSU this fall, although it's unclear which version of her we will see over the next few months. Her performance on the outdoor oval this past spring were admittedly underwhelming, but her past success on the grass could certainly peak your interest.
During the fall of 2020, at the ACC XC Championships, Funderburk placed 15th overall, a finish that would have greatly helped the 'Noles last fall.
But this long-time veteran was actually even better during the 2019 cross country season, placing 11th at Pre-Nationals, 8th at the ACC XC Championships and 6th at the South Regional XC Championships.
Those are HUGE results that could allow FSU to reach the same level that they were at in 2021...although that's entirely dependent on Funderburk actually replicating that previous level of fitness.
And how about Alyson Churchill? On the track, she's one of the most talented women on this team. Her recent mile PR of 4:37, paired with her 9:07 (3k) and 16:03 (5k) marks from 2021, suggests that she can be a legitimate top-tier scorer for this team in 2022.
However, this is also someone who was outside of the top-80 at the 2021 ACC XC Championships and outside of the top-90 at Pre-Nationals. By comparison, Churchill has yet to truly translate her success on the track to an effective scoring spot on the grass.
But are we really going to bet against someone who has run 9:07 for 3000 meters?
That certainly doesn't sound like a good idea...
The rest of this roster is where things get interesting.
It's also where we find the greatest uncertainty on this team, which is already saying a lot.
Florida State returns a few other key women like Yasmine Abbes and Caitlin Wilkey. In theory, those two women could offer decent depth.
Abbes has run 4:19 (1500) and 9:23 (3k) after redshirting the fall 2021 cross country season. Wilkey, meanwhile, proved to be one of FSU's better non-varsity runners, although she'll still need to develop further to have an impact this fall.
However, the greatest upside on this team comes from their newest names.
Bieke Schipperen, for instance, is a true rookie from the Netherlands. The 18-year old standout has run 4:27 for 1500 meters and is rumored to have run 9:35 for 3000 meters (which we could not verify).
Then there is Marit Griep, another Dutch distance runner who holds almost identical personal bests of 4:27 for 1500 meters and 9:37 for 3000 meters.
However, maybe the most important new name of this group is Emmy van den Berg, a third Dutch recruit who is the star of this incoming class. Not only has she run excellent times of 4:17 for 1500 meters and 9:14 for 3000 meters, but she was also 11th at the 2022 European Junior XC Championships.
In our eyes, she could be an absolutely pivotal scorer for 'Noles this fall.
When you put those three rookies together and pair them with the numerous other names scattered throughout this roster, you begin to realize that Florida State has a ton of options when it comes to creating a cohesive top-seven this fall.
But even so, there are plenty of cautionary aspects surrounding this team.
Most of these women are still fairly young and in many cases, they're inexperienced, especially for the newest overseas recruits. And for those returners who are considered to be "veterans", it's been multiple seasons since we've seen them at their best.
Who is going to be the true low-stick of this team? Where is the firepower going to come from? Will this team simply rely on a mountain of stable scoring and solid depth?
These are all legitimate questions that make it hard for FSU to be ranked anywhere inside our top-20 preseason spots...but they still aren't far off from that point, either.
Yes, it's true, a lot needs to happen if FSU is going to fill the numerous scoring holes within their cross country lineup this fall. In fact, entirely replacing Ryan, Skyring, Beach and Phelps seems unlikely this season.
However, the opposite is also true.
The Seminoles have numerous options to choose from when it comes to setting their lineups. They have at least nine women who could realistically be in their top-five and a good number of them are younger runners who hold exciting upside, especially McTighe.
And if Clarke or Funderburk end up producing similar finishes that we saw from them in previous seasons, then Florida State shouldn't have too much trouble emulating their results from last fall.
However, maybe the biggest factor to consider is that FSU is almost always good.
Or at the very least, they're usually nationally competitive.
And if we've learned anything during our time at The Stride Report, it's to not bet against history.