Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Aug 10, 20228 min
If you've been a reader of The Stride Report for a while, then you likely know that track times don't hold as much influence on our preseason cross country rankings in comparison to previous performances that we've seen on the grass.
But in 2022, the Montana State men are the clear exception to that rule.
This year's version of the Bobcats will almost certainly be better than what we saw from them in the fall of 2021. In fact, their year-to-year performances may not even be close.
And while we have only ranked Montana State at TSR #24 this summer, their ceiling heading into the fall months is likely that of a top-15 team.
Last fall was hardly an exciting one for the Bobcats. In fact, for most of September, we saw the Montana State men remain in the state of Montana, only battling Utah State in an early-season dual. That race, however, didn't really tell us much.
Instead, their first real test would be at Notre Dame for the Joe Piane Invitational. Once there, the Bobcats would face what was arguably their greatest competition of the entire cross country season.
In a loaded national-caliber field which featured Northern Arizona, Colorado and Arkansas at the top of the results, Montana State was tested to their fullest extent.
A 12th place finish by Duncan Hamilton was an excellent result, one that gave the Bobcats a legitimate low-stick to lean on in a deep field. From there, third-year redshirt freshman Ben Perrin would lock-down a strong 45th place finish, giving Montana State a respectable second scoring option.
But from there, things began to unravel somewhat unfavorably for the Bozeman-based men.
Matthew Richtman recorded a decent-enough 60th place finish, but the final two Montana State scorers wouldn't cross the line until 92nd place and 159th place overall.
In the end, the team finished 12th overall, a fairly solid result that placed them below the great teams, but above the decent teams. They were 15 points behind Ole Miss and through their first four runners, the Bobcats actually had three of the better scorers (comparatively).
On paper, Montana State actually had a fairly decent lineup through three runners. No, the team wasn't perfect, but they had a true low-stick, a solid second scorer and a third runner who didn't dramatically inflate the scoring.
Later, at the BIG Sky XC Championships, Montana State would face off against a juggernaut Northern Arizona team as well as a nationally competitive Southern Utah. The Weber State men had also shown signs of promise throughout the fall months.
No one was beating Northern Arizona. That was hardly a hot take.
However, the idea of taking down the Thunderbirds seemed somewhat reasonable, especially if the Bobcats were able to replicate their Joe Piane performances with an improved backend.
But in the end, Montana State just didn't have the necessary firepower to contend with their conference rival. Perrin placed 6th overall while Hamilton placed 10th. And with Southern Utah putting four men in the top-11, the Montana State men just didn't have enough, especially with their fifth scorer placing 35th overall.
The Bobcats would eventually enter the Mountain Regional XC Championships with renewed hope. If they had the best race of their season, maybe they could have put themselves in a "push" scenario where they qualified for the national meet despite not having enough Kolas points.
But fate had different plans. Instead, Montana State would have what was arguably their worst race of the season. The Bobcats placed 7th overall, only beating 8th place Utah State on a tie-breaker and losing to 6th place Weber State by 22 points.
However, both Duncan Hamilton and Matthew Richtman would individually qualify for the national meet where they would go on to place 59th and 112th, respectively.
After reading the above section, you're probably scratching your head and wondering, "How on Earth did this team crack their top-25 rankings?"
And that's a completely understandable question.
Last year's Montana State team was fine, but they were hardly national-caliber. While they certainly showed promise, the Bobcats needed tremendous luck if they were going to sniff the 2021 national meet.
So what has changed? How could this team suddenly be one of the best in the country?
Well, it all has to do with what we saw from them on the track.
Let's start with Duncan Hamilton, the clear superstar of this program. The Montana State ace went from good to great this past winter and spring, throwing down some of the most impressive range that we have seen in a long time.
On the indoor circuit, Hamilton ran an altitude and flat-track converted 3:56 mile. He also ran an outstanding time of 7:45 for 3000 meters, an event that he would contest at the NCAA Indoor Championships where he placed 10th.
Of course, that was only the tip of the iceberg for Hamilton who would go on to have a historic outdoor track season.
At Bryan Clay, Hamilton unleashed one of the best weekend doubles of the season, running 3:39 for 1500 meters as well as 13:30 for 5000 meters. That was awe-inspiring firepower and consistency, but neither the 1500 meters nor the 5k were his best events.
Instead, it was the steeplechase. At Payton Jordan, he ran 8:26 over the barriers and water pits. Then, on the national stage, Hamilton unleashed a jaw-dropping time of 8:18, fading in the final straightaway of the finals and narrowly settling for bronze in the deepest collegiate steeplechase race ever.
He would go on to the USA Championships where he would finish 4th overall.
2022 has been extremely good to Hamilton. He has reached a level that has completely blown away our expectations. No matter which way your slice it, Hamilton will unquestionably be better this fall than he was in 2021.
How much better is still to be determined, but we have him listed as one of the 30-best cross country runners in the nation this preseason -- and that seems like a conservative estimate.
And while no one on this Montana State team matched the track accolades that Hamilton posted, they weren't that far off, either.
Let's start with Ben Perrin, a veteran despite what his eligibility may say. The Bobcat standout showed flashes of promise throughout last fall, specifically at Joe Piane and the BIG Sky XC Championships. However, no one could have seen what was coming on the oval.
Last winter, Perrin ran very strong marks of 4:01 in the mile and 8:01 in the 3000 meters. He also ran an altitude converted 13:39 for 5000 meters, an encouraging result that would set him up for greater success in the spring.
When he finally did reach the outdoor oval, Perrin would drop an outstanding 13:36 personal best for 5000 meters, validating his breakout indoor season. Not only that, but he would also go on to win the BIG Sky 10k title over Northern Arizona star Drew Bosley, earning a 29:13 altitude conversion.
But what if I told you that there was actually another Bobcat not named Duncan Hamilton who may have had a better outdoor track season than Perrin?
I am, of course, talking about Levi Taylor, a Montana native who didn't show any indications during the fall months that he would be one of the best steeplechasers in the country this past spring.
After a modest indoor track season, Taylor went to the outdoor oval where he had a huge breakout season. He ran 3:44 for 1500 meters, posted an altitude converted 13:59 mark for 5000 meters and then dropped an outstanding time of 8:30 in the steeplechase prelims of the NCAA Outdoor Championships.
Taylor would go on to place 9th in the steeple finals in 8:33, but his ACTUAL personal best in the steeplechase came at the USA Championships where he ran an incredible 8:27 PR.
But wait, there's more!
Matthew Richtman came on strong during the end of the 2021 cross country season, finishing 14th in the best region in the NCAA, qualifying for the national meet and placing 112th in what was a fairly decent outing considering his youth and inexperience.
But would you believe me if I told you that he was arguably better in the spring?
On the outdoor oval, Richtman ran a pair of great times. His new personal bests of 13:47 (5k) and 28:46 (10k) certainly caught our attention, leading us to believe that this Montana State ace could be a far more potent scorer on the grass in comparison to last year.
By now, you can begin to see why Montana State is ranked at TSR #24. The amount of distance running firepower that we saw from this team on the track is almost overwhelming. Some of the most established distance programs in the NCAA weren't able to match what the Bobcats did earlier this year.
On paper, it's clear that Hamilton, Perrin, Taylor and Richtman will be this team's top-four scorers this fall -- in what order is for you to decide.
Of course, just like most teams throughout the country, there are obvious aspects of this MSU lineup that we need to remain cautious about.
Despite the incredible performances that we saw from this quartet on the track, suggesting that they'll all be low-sticks or super reliable scorers is not at all a guarantee. Last fall, Levi Taylor was well behind the other names mentioned above. Plus, guys like Perrin and Richtman were far from amazing during the 2021 cross country season.
And without knowing just how much better they'll be on the grass, it's hard to rank a team that was one stride away from being the 8th place team in their region.
We also have to recognize another glaring weak point -- their depth.
Last fall, through three runners, Montana State had a solid lineup. At times, they even seemed to have a respectable top-four.
But how much better will their fifth scorer be? Who will even be that final scorer? Who will offer support after that fifth runner? Will that sixth runner be able to give Montana State any room for error if someone has an "off" day?
The good news is that this roster is somewhat young (eligibility-wise) and they've shown the occasional flash of promise. Names like Owen Smith and Rob McManus were youngsters who gained varsity experience last fall while Cooper West and Riley Collins are veterans who could take that next step forward.
If we had to guess, Cooper West is our pick to be that fifth scorer. He's run a respectable altitude converted mark of 14:18 for 5000 meters as well as an altitude and flat-track converted 3k time of 8:20. He also ran an altitude converted mark of 9:02 this spring in the steeplechase and was in Montana State's varsity lineup last fall.
But while West is a fine runner, he will need to be noticeably better on the grass if we're going to see the full impact of Montana State's top-four scorers.
And even if he does solidify the backend of this lineup, the Bobcats are still left with absolutely zero margin for error. After all, this is a team that had just 11 total men on its cross country roster last fall.
Our criticisms of Montana State may come off a bit harsh, but maybe that's because it's hard to fathom the Bobcats suddenly becoming one of the most elite cross country teams in the country over the span of a year, maybe even less that.
But while it may be difficult to comprehend, the talent is undeniably there.
What Coach Lyle Weese has done is beyond is impressive. He has built a distance team that was so good on the track that we were forced to abandon our "cross country results take priority" rule and instead focus our attention entirely on the thrilling upside of these rising Bobcat stars.
So forget what you thought you knew about Montana State.
Because in 2022, this team could be completely different...while still having the same runners.