Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Aug 11, 20229 min
How on Earth should we rank the Florida State men?
If you polled 100 extremely knowledge collegiate distance running analysts and asked them where the 'Noles should be in our team rankings, then you'd likely get answers that were anywhere from TSR #16 to outside of the 31 national qualifying programs.
So as a middle ground, we're ranking FSU at TSR #23...and we're still not sure if that's correct.
The 2021 cross country season was a pleasant surprise if you're a Florida State fan. After a couple of modest seasons as a team, the Seminoles rallied throughout last fall and proved to be fairly solid during the fall months.
The 'Noles started off their season on their home course at the FSU XC Open. In the small but top-heavy field, Florida State faced off against a powerhouse Stanford squad as well as a very underrated Furman team.
In the end, Stanford would dominate as expected. In the race for 2nd place, Furman would get the edge, holding off the FSU men by 22 points. While Florida State matched Stanford for the best 1-2 punch at the meet (with Wildschutt and Muhumed placing 1st and 4th, respectively), it was Furman who had a far more complete squad.
The Paladins placed all five of their scorers in the top-20. Meanwhile, the Seminoles didn't even have four men in the top-35 individual spots. Paul Stafford, however, proved to be a small bright spot by placing 16th overall.
Two weeks later, Florida State eventually would flip the switch and step up their performance at the Joe Piane Invitational. On the Notre Dame-hosted course, the FSU men impressed, throwing down an excellent 4th place team finish.
Wildschutt was phenomenal, taking home the win while Muhumed secured a 7th place result. And when looking at the standings, no other team had a better 1-2 punch than FSU.
But after those two, the Seminoles appeared to be fairly vulnerable. Their backend scoring dropped off significantly with Paul Stafford, Jacob Holmes and Silas Griffith placing 52nd, 59th and 85th in the individual results.
And as far as scoring structures go, that was a concerning development.
Even so, Florida State left South Bend with wins over Southern Utah, Alabama, Weber State, Ole Miss, Charlotte and more. That was something to be happy about.
Fast forward to Pre-Nationals, a meet that was also on Florida State's home course, and the results were largely similar.
Wildschutt once again came through with a monster runner-up finish while Muhumed was excellent once more, posting an 11th place finish which was arguably better than what we saw from him at Joe Piane.
But yet again, FSU would be limited by their depth. With scores of 55-89-124, the 'Noles faltered in the team standings, although they still managed to put together an 8th place team finish. And unbelievably, that was enough to take down Alabama, Georgetown, Ole Miss and Montana State.
At the ACC XC Championships, Florida State placed 5th overall. And at first glance, that seems like a fairly poor showing for a team that was likely aiming for a 3rd or 4th place result.
However, the Syracuse men arguably had their best cross country race of the last few seasons and the other teams ahead of FSU, such as Notre Dame, Wake Forest and North Carolina, had all given us good reason to believe that they were better than the Seminoles even before the gun went off.
Seeing Wildschutt and Muhumed earn 1st and 3rd place finishes at that point in the season was hardly surprising. A 27th place finish from Silas Griffith, while not unbelievably amazing, was somewhat solid as well.
Of course, the backend of this lineup ultimately dropped off too much, putting Florida State as the fifth-best team in their conference.
Going into the South Regional XC Championships, Florida State was favored to take home the win. After all, they had already defeated regional rivals Alabama and Ole Miss twice (each) earlier in the season. Surely FSU would beat them again...right?
Wrong.
Despite Wildschutt and Muhumed going 1-2, Florida State only had one other runner in the top-30 (Matt Owens in 28th) while their other two scorers finished 33rd and 48th overall.
Luckily for Florida State, they still settled for a 3rd place team finish, a result that ultimately sent them to the national meet after a good-enough regular season.
The Tallahassee-based men would end their fall campaign at the NCAA XC Championships, competing on their home course for the third time that season.
Once there, the Seminoles would end up matching expectations almost entirely. Wildschutt (6th) and Muhumed (20th) proved to be elite scorers once more while the backend saw no one earn a top-150 finish. Their third scorer ended up placing 184th overall.
In the end, FSU finished 20th place in the team standings, a result that was a fairly accurate seasonal reflection of their team as a whole -- solid, maybe even good, but clearly limited.
If it wasn't already obvious, last year's Florida State team relied heavily on their firepower, specifically their top-two runners. In fact, that was pretty much their entire identity. After Wildschutt and Muhumed, the scoring support was minimal.
But in 2022, things could become far more challenging for the 'Noles.
That's because both Wildschutt and Muhumed are gone, leaving the front-end of Florida State's returning lineup completely vacant of scoring potency. At a glance, that's extremely concerning. After all, Wildschutt and Muhumed were the only reasons why this team was nationally competitive last fall.
To make matters even worse, Silas Griffith, a consistent veteran scorer from last fall, is not expected to return, either. With his departure, Florida State's already-thin depth becomes even more deficient of options.
So how did this team earn a top-25 ranking, much less a spot at TSR #23? Where will the additional scoring potency come from? Who will add to their depth? What past performances should lead us to believe that this team could be better than last year?
Well, luckily for Florida State, there are very good answers to all of those questions.
Fearghal Curtin, the graduate transfer from Charleston Southern, is set to join the 'Noles this fall with outstanding long distance credentials. He currently sits inside our XC Top 50 individual rankings and on paper, he replaces some (certainly not all) of the scoring potency left behind by Wildschutt and Muhumed.
Florida State's newest low-stick was phenomenal over the past year. On the track, the distance standout recorded outstanding times of 13:37 for 5000 meters and 28:25 for 10,000 meters. Curtin would go on to qualify for the outdoor national meet in the 10k.
On the grass, Curtin has been excellent. He was 5th at the FSU XC Open last fall (one spot behind Muhumed) and later secured a promising 21st place finish at Pre-Nationals. After a 2nd place finish behind Athanas Kioko at the BIG South XC Championships and a 3rd place result in the South region, Curtin went to the national meet where settled for an 82nd place finish.
No, Curtin wasn't as good as either Wildschutt or Muhumed on the grass last fall, but he wasn't far off from Muhumed in the grand scheme of things. We are also extremely confident that Curtin's 82nd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships is far from an accurate gauge of his full potential.
At the very least, Curtin is going to be a much-needed stud low-stick who gives Florida State some kind of identity and some promising firepower this fall.
Of course, Curtin isn't the only new name joining this roster. Cooper Schroeder, the graduate transfer from Kansas State, will also don a Seminole singlet this fall. And while he isn't expected to be the low-stick that Curtin is, Schroeder still brings quality scoring and underrated stability to a lineup that needs to fill its gaps.
Admittedly, the former Kansas State Wildcat has a fairly unexciting cross country resume...but there are still a few promising performances.
After a few modest fall seasons, Schroeder secured a promising 15th place finish at the 2020 BIG 12 XC Championships. He was third runner not from Iowa State or Oklahoma State to cross the line in that race.
Schroeder also took down Texas middle distance specialists like Graydon Morris, Crayton Carrozza, Gruz Gomez, Brendan Hebert and long distance ace Rodger Rivera in the process.
However, maybe the most encouraging results on Schroeder's resume are the ones that he recorded on the track. During the 2021 outdoor track season, Schroeder threw down a very solid 10k mark of 29:05 and later ran 13:55 for 5000 meters this past winter.
Schroeder may not be favored to be an All-American this fall, but he doesn't have to be. If he can simply step in and produce high-quality scoring at the second spot in this lineup, then bringing him as a graduate transfer will be considered a major success.
But for as good as Curtin and Schroeder are, they can't be the only reasons why Florida State is ranked at TSR #23. In our eyes, the Seminoles still needed more scoring potential.
So naturally, they went out and got Michael Toppi.
The Florida native will be joining FSU as an incoming freshman this fall, and his introduction to this team couldn't have come at a better time. The former high school standout has run 8:59 for 3200 meters and 14:41 for 5000 meters on the grass.
However, maybe more importantly, Toppi qualified for the 2021 Eastbay XC National Championships this past fall where he placed 30th overall.
If you're Florida State, that is a huge name to have. Not just because of what he could potentially bring to this team over the next few months, but because Toppi gives the 'Noles a name to lean on over the next few years.
Truthfully, it's hard to confidently say which high school recruits are going to make immediate impacts as soon as they step foot on campus, but it has happened countless times before.
While we don't necessarily think that Toppi has the same proven ability that guys like Riley Hough (Michigan State) or Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) do, his potential to be a top-five scorer for Florida State this fall is very much there.
When you factor Curtin, Schroeder and Toppi into the Seminoles' 2022 lineup, the optimism for Florida State feels much stronger than it did in the first-half of this article.
And as for the rest of the team? Well, that's where our greatest uncertainty lies.
You might know Matt Owens as a BYU steeplechaser, but he actually ventured to Florida State during the fall of 2021 as a graduate transfer. The 8:32 steeple veteran was excellent during his time with the Cougars, even earning a 45th place finish at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships.
However, over the last year, Owens has faded a bit from his former peak. He ran no faster than 8:51 in the steeplechase this past spring, finished outside of the top-50 at the ACC XC Championships and placed 228th at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships.
There is no doubt in our minds that Owens is talented and he has already proven that he can be a nationally competitive name. Of course, we just haven't seen him at that level over the past year.
If this former BYU runner can replicate his 2019 magic, then this Florida State team will look much more different (and be far better) than we were expecting.
The story is very similar for Florida State veteran Paul Stafford. He was 52nd at Joe Piane last fall, but that was where his 2021 fall campaign ended. In 2019, he also had a strong season, placing 17th at the ACC XC Championships and then 71st at the NCAA XC Championships.
But since then, Stafford has been fairly quiet. Much like Owens, it's extremely obvious that he has the potential to be a boarderline front-runner or top middle-lineup scorer, but we simply haven't seen that from him in a little under three years.
Could that change in 2022?
As for the rest of this squad, there is some decent potential when it comes to the overall depth of this team. Of course, trying to deliver on that potential will be the greatest challenge.
Jacob Holmes has grown into a veteran. He has been a steady lineup contributor for FSU over the last few years and recently ran 14:16 for 5000 meters.
Sam Field had a breakout outdoor track season this past spring, running 3:42 for 1500 meters. He made the occasional appearance inside of Florida State's lineup last fall.
Gabe Curtis, much like Jacob Holmes, has been a respectable backend contributor. He was 55th at Pre-Nationals last fall and seems due for a breakout.
Then there is Zach Leachman, a somewhat young-ish runner who now has a few key seasons of NCAA experience. He ran 29:23 for 10,000 meters this past spring, a time that could absolutely be carried over to the grass where he may emerge as a scorer.
And when you look at this group as a whole, one has to believe that Florida State's backend scoring will be fairly respectable this fall. The past success that men like Owens and Stafford boast is far too great to ignore and the potential of Leachman is enough to keep us interested.
For most programs that were structured like Florida State last fall, the departures of Wildschutt and Muhumed would be devastating. Few teams would be able to efficiently and effectively rebound after losing two men who were practically their entire team as far as scoring is concerned.
However, what Coach Bob Braman and his staff have done to keep this team nationally competitive is beyond impressive. They did everything they needed to do to ensure that 2022 would not be a rebuilding year, but rather a reloading year.
That's not an easy thing to accomplish.
Will this year's FSU team be as good as they were last fall? Maybe, maybe not, but it's hard to compare lineups that could be (or will be) dramatically different in structure and personnel.
But what we do know is that the Seminoles aren't going anywhere. And while there is certainly a low floor, their ceiling is just as high -- maybe far higher than we realize.