Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Aug 16, 202210 min
Over the last decade or so, Texas and the sport of cross country haven't exactly meshed together all that well.
From 2014 leading up to the fall of 2021, the best team finish that the Texas men ever had at an NCAA XC Championship was a 26th place result...which was not great. In 2013, Texas had placed 15th at the national meet and the year before that, they had placed 9th.
When it came to the middle and long distances, Texas has proven to be at their best on the track. However, ever since the introduction of Coach Pete Watson in 2018, this team has been on an upwards trajectory when it comes to cross country.
And after placing 14th at last year's national meet, it feels like the Texas that we have grown to know for the past eight to 10 years is no longer -- and that's a good thing.
Last fall was a good one for the Longhorns, a team that showed tremendous promise throughout the course of last season, slowly getting better with each passing week.
Texas began their season at the Cowboy Jamboree where they would face distance running titans like Northern Arizona, Oklahoma State, Colorado and Tulsa. To put it simply, this was an early-season test far more challenging than most September-time meets.
But Texas held their own, putting two men (Haftu Knight and Yaseen Abdalla) in the top-10 overall spots while Rodger Rivera gave the team a solid third option with a 19th place finish. Significant gaps began to form after that, with Cruz Gomez placing 29th and Samuel Bass placing 40th.
Still, all things considered, this was a very encouraging result.
Texas settled for 4th overall, but losing to NAU, Oklahoma State and Colorado held no shame -- those teams were just at a different level. The Longhorns did, however, take down a very strong Tulsa squad by over 20 points.
The only runner that the Golden Hurricanes were missing was Isaac Akers.
For perspective, all of those teams not named Texas would go on to place in the top-eight at the NCAA XC Championships a few months later.
Pre-Nationals would be Texas' next test, a field that was far larger than the Cowboy Jamboree and just as top-heavy, if not more.
However, unlike their previous race, the Longhorns would flex a more balanced lineup, one with lesser scoring potency, but far greater depth.
Knight and Abdalla placed 28th and 29th while Crayton Carrozza was 43rd and Rivera was 54th. With Abraham Avila-Martinez doing just enough with a 79th place finish, the Texas men were able to close out their scoring in a similar range as the team's that finished ahead of them.
In the end, a 6th place finish team seemed about right for Texas.
They were had a lineup structure that limited any excessive scoring, but their scoring potency was outmatched by the top-tier teams. Their fifth scorer wasn't that much better (or worse) than those teams, either.
Still, by taking down Princeton, Florida State, Alabama, Georgetown, Ole Miss and others, it was clear that the Longhorns had put themselves closer to the top-half of the NCAA's best teams rather than the bottom-half.
And when you consider that NAU, Colorado, Arkansas, BYU and Notre Dame all finished ahead of the Longhorns, it was hard to be upset about a 6th place team result. At the time, all of those teams were viewed as superior opponents and they would ultimately reaffirm that suspicion at the national meet.
Fast forward to the BIG 12 XC Championships and Texas was once again met with competition that was simply better than them. Iowa State and Oklahoma State were the class of the conference and Texas was as big of a lock for 3rd place as a team could get.
The pack-running that we saw from the Longhorns at Pre-Nationals once again came out at their conference meet. With Gomez, Knight, Rivera, Carrozza and Abdalla finishing 11-13-16-19-20, Texas didn't have the firepower to match the Cyclones or the Cowboys...but they didn't necessarily have a weak point in their lineup, either.
After securing a win at the South Central Regional XC Championships over Arkansas, their next actual test (and final test) came at the NCAA XC Championships. And after a season of promising performances, and a history of postseason struggles, the fall of 2021 felt like Texas' year to enter a new era of competitiveness on the grass.
And sure enough, that's exactly what happened.
Texas went into the national meet and had their best race of the season. Abdalla posted a huge 32nd place All-American finish while Haftu Knight emerged as a very strong second scorer by placing 63rd overall.
With Rivera keep the team score tight with an 83rd place finish and Cruz Gomez holding down the backend with a 109th place finish, the Texas men had a very impressive streak of performances through four runners.
However, with their final scorer placing 172nd overall, the Longhorns proved to be a bit vulnerable. That gap between Gomez and the final scorer is likely what kept Texas out of the top-10 in the team standings.
In the end, it was hard to be disappointed about a 14th place finish. That was a huge result that the men from Austin, Texas should have been thrilled about.
But when you look at their season as a whole, one has to think that a top-15 result at the national meet was well within Texas' wheelhouse.
While the Longhorns never had a team result that stood out during the regular season, it's important to note that the only programs that they lost prior to the national meet all finished in the top-10 in Tallahassee.
At The Stride Report, we absolutely love this Texas team. In fact, when we entered the summer months, we were prepared to suggest that the Longhorns were a boarderline top-10 program going into this fall.
Because on paper, this team had everything you could have wanted.
But then news struck that Yaseen Abdalla, the team's 32nd place All-American star from the national meet, would be transferring to Tennessee.
And frankly put, his departure was impossible to look past.
Losing Abdalla hurts a ton. This is a program that had a great group of five scorers, but in certain meets, they had limited scoring potency. If Texas was going to stay as a top-15 in the country, or even emerge a top-10 team, then they needed to keep their 2021 lineup intact (which meant returning Abdalla).
With Abdalla now gone, it is admittedly hard to imagine this Texas team matching last year's results. We're certainly not saying it's impossible, but that task just became so much more challenging with one less front-runner now on their roster.
But in fairness to Texas, and for as good as Abdalla is, the low-stick scoring potency that we saw from this former Longhorn fluctuated last fall. He was outstanding at the Cowboy Jamboree and at the NCAA XC Championships, respectable at Pre-Nationals and far from great at the BIG 12 XC Championships.
Depending on the meet, Abdalla's scoring value can be replicated, although maybe not entirely.
Of course, that begs a new question...how will Texas fill this Abdalla-shaped gap?
We really like the combination of Haftu Knight and Rodger Rivera. Both men were very underrated at certain times last fall and both men have shown the potential to emerge as true low-sticks in the fall of 2022.
Seeing Knight place 7th at the Cowboy Jamboree ahead of numerous All-Americans is a big-time result. If he can replicate that finish throughout the entirety of this fall season, then he could be a major problem for his competitors.
Admittedly, his consistency needs to improve, but it's not like Knight ever had a poor performance last fall. He was always one of top Texas' top scorers and was fairly reliable. Now he just needs to be the star that we know he can be.
Of course, after seeing him run 13:40 (5k) and 28:30 (10k) this past spring, one has to think that his star-caliber season is coming this fall.
It's a similar story for Rivera. He was a very solid and reliable third scoring option for Texas throughout last fall. However, it was clear that he had not yet reached his full potential during that season.
This isn't to say that a 19th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree or an 83rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships was bad, but on the track, Rivera proved to us that he had more untapped talent.
That's because at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships, Rivera ran personal bests of 7:57 (3k) and 13:41 (5k) in the same weekend, earning a pair of 4th place finishes in fields that featured elite distance standouts from Iowa State, Oklahoma State and his own team.
Then there is Cruz Gomez, a guy who was a little inconsistent last year, but still provided excellent scoring value in this lineup. A top-30 finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, an 11th place finish at the BIG 12 XC Championships and a top-110 finish at the national meet proved to us that Gomez was a fairly reliable scorer.
Gomez still needs to improve and reach the same level that Rivera was at last year. But after running 3:57 (mile) and 13:59 (5k) this past year, there is potential for this Texas ace to improve upon his cross country marks...we think.
After the Knight, Rivera and Gomez trio, things begin to look a little less certain.
Carrozza is best known for his work on the track, but his value on the grass will be arguably just as high this fall as it was this past spring. That's because Carrozza was the team's third scorer at Pre-Nationals (where he placed 43rd) and the team's fourth scorer at the BIG 12 XC Championships (where he placed 19th).
And those are really good results!
However, after skipping the regional meet, Carrozza seemingly struggled to adjust to the 10k distance, finishing 205th at the national meet.
We only saw Carrozza toe the line for three cross country meets last fall and only one of those races was over 10,000 meters. It's hard to know exactly how good he is on the grass with such a limited sample size, but with a converted 3:55 mile mark from this past winter, we have reason to believe that Carrozza can step into the middle portion of this lineup and offer value.
If that were to happen -- and we think it will -- then the departure of Abdalla won't be quite as devastating. No, Carrozza won't be able to make up for Abdalla's presence as a front-runner, but if he replicates his Pre-Nationals performance on the national stage, then the Longhorns look closer to being a top-20 team than a team just outside of that range.
Abraham Avila-Martinez is the other name to keep an eye on. He was usually at the backend of this lineup, but showed moments of promise throughout last fall. Placing 79th at Pre-Nationals was solid, although that was the clear highlight of his season.
At the end of the day, someone has to close out the scoring in Texas' top-five fairly quickly. And in our opinion, Avila-Martinez will likely be that guy.
Luckily, we think he will be better than last year.
This past spring, Avila-Martinez posted surprisingly strong marks of 13:58 (5k) and 28:48 (10k). That latter 10k mark is very encouraging and it leads us to believe that we could see significant progression from this still-young Texas runner later this fall.
But if our analysis ended there, then this TSR #18 ranking for Texas would look a little shaky. While we do like all five of those men we just mentioned, a lot needs to happen in order for them to come together and consistently run as a cohesive lineup.
This, however, is where the reinforcements should be introduced.
Isaac Alonzo was just a freshman last year, but showed tremendous promise despite his rookie status. This past spring, the Longhorn youngster ran times of 14:01 (5k) and 29:15 (10k). He eventually went on to score for Texas at the BIG 12 Outdoor Championships.
For someone who was only a rookie last year, Alonzo's marks on the track were extremely encouraging. If he is able to maintain that spring-time momentum and carry it to the grass, then he could absolutely be a scorer this fall.
Admittedly, we don't know just how much better he'll be, but having an x-factor like Alonzo could do wonders for a program if he turns out to be the talent that we think he can be.
And then there is Jackson Braddock, another highly talented youngster, who transferred into this program from Virginia earlier this year.
If you look at Braddock's rookie cross country resume, it's hard to be too excited. He was 129th at Joe Piane and 75th at the ACC XC Championships. However, seeing him run 4:03 in the mile and 8:19 for 3000 meters was encouraging.
Of course, let's not forget why Braddock held so much value in the transfer portal -- he was once a high school superstar.
The Class of 2021 graduate out of New Jersey was truly dominant at the prep level. He ran 4:06 for 1600 meters, 8:48 for 3200 meters and placed 29th at the 2019 NXN Championships.
Braddock has an unreal amount of potential. Even on a team that he wanted to transfer out of, the young distance ace was still posting personal bests and toeing the line for competition.
We have no idea how good Braddock will be this fall. A lot has happened since he graduated from high school to now. He could be a vital top-five scorer or someone not even in this team's top-seven. We just don't know.
But at the end of the day, having Braddock as an option for your lineup is better than not having him at all. That much is obvious.
We also can't end this article without mentioning Hudson Heikkinen and Emmanuel Sgouros, two superstar recruits who could be phenomenal scorers as rookies.
At the high school level, Heikkinen ran 4:08 for 1600 meters and 14:47 for 5000 meters on the track. Those are two outstanding marks that could be instantly translatable to the collegiate cross country scene this fall.
Heikkinen has also run 14:59 for 5000 meters on the grass and later placed 4th at the NXN South Regional Championships.
But what if I told you that Sgouros, on paper, was the better recruit?
Sgouros was an aerobic beast at the prep level. His 4:09 mile PR was solid, but an 8:47 mark for 3200 meters was beyond outstanding. It also doesn't hurt that he recorded a 10th place finish at the Eastbay XC National Championships last fall.
On paper, one has to think that Sgouros could not only be a top-seven runner for Texas this fall, but maybe even a top-five scorer. His ability to flex his raw talent on both the track and the grass is incredibly exciting and in a year where the Longhorn's depth is limited, Coach Pete Watson may opt not to redshirt this Texas native.
But for as much as we love the names and the structure of Texas' projected 2022 lineup, trying to argue that they'll be as good as last year without Yaseen Abdalla is hard to get behind.
There were already noticeable gaps within this top-seven at meets like the Cowboy Jamboree and the NCAA XC Championships, so trying to fill that fifth scoring spot and the low-stick scoring of Abdalla is going to be a tall task.
But the depth and the extensive number of lineup options on this team will most certainly limit the impact of his departure. Going from the 14th place team at the national meet to a TSR #18 preseason ranking is hardly a fall from grace.
And if you talked to us for long enough, you could have eventually convinced our TSR writers that this Texas group will be just as good in 2022 as they were last year, maybe even better.
Because who knows?
Maybe Texas really is back.