Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Aug 22, 202210 min
Are the Air Force men the most consistently underrated team in the NCAA?
Maybe not necessarily in The Stride Report's summer rankings, but what about nationally? Do the Falcons ever get the credit that they deserve for what they have done over the last few seasons?
I would argue no, and that's why we have this Mountain region team listed at TSR #13.
And here's the craziest part: This ranking may still be too low.
If the men from the Colorado-based military academy are able to deliver on their full potential later this fall, then a top-10 ranking for the Air Force men by the end of the season might as well be a lock.
It was hard not to be impressed by the Air Force men throughout last fall. The Falcons consistently toed the line against some of the best distance teams in the country and often thrived in those high-profile meets.
At the Dellinger Invite, for instance, the Falcons shook off their summer rust by battling the likes of Oregon, Gonzaga and Portland. Once there, Nick Scheller stepped up as the team's top scorer, placing 7th overall to give Air Force a very solid front-runner in the top-heavy field.
That was a surprising result to see from Scheller, mainly because he hadn't shown that kind of ability in any of his prior races.
Sean Maison would go on to place 15th while the rest of the lineup grouped together. The combination of Scott Maison, Ethan Marshall, Will Kitzhaber and Ryan Ioanidis closed out the top-six with finishes of 20-21-22-24.
In the end, Air Force would settle for a 3rd place team finish. They would take down a solid Portland team, but would falter behind Oregon and Gonzaga...but there was a catch.
The Falcons didn't field their best runner, Sam Gilman.
Fast forward to the Nuttycombe Invite and the actual potential of the Air Force men came out in full force.
Scheller continued his jaw-dropping breakout season, finishing 19th overall to give the Falcons another injection of top-tier scoring potency in a loaded field. And luckily, he wasn't the only one carrying the scoring burden of this squad.
Ioanidis and the aforementioned Sam Gilman ended up recording 34th and 42nd place finishes, respectively, giving this team a formidable top-three and tons of scoring stability.
Ethan Marshall (58th) and Luke Combs (72nd) ran shockingly well despite being the fourth and fifth scorers on their own squad. With those two men keeping the scoring gaps between them and the Falcons' top-three fairly minimal, Air Force was able to put together one of the most complete lineups in this elite field.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, led to the Air Force men placing 5th overall at Nuttycombe, losing only to Iowa State, Stanford, Tulsa and Wisconsin.
Air Force had to be riding high going into the postseason. Not only did they just take down a large slew of top-level talents, but even their full top-seven was proving to be fairly deep. And with Scheller now emerging as a legitimate low-stick, the sky was the limit for this team in 2022.
Sure enough, Air Force would end up cruising through the Mountain West XC Championships. While teams like Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State were respectable, no program had anywhere near the depth or the firepower to compete with the Falcons.
In the end, the 2021 Mountain West champions would score just 27 points, putting six men in the top-10 overall spots and nine men in the top-13.
After placing 4th in the Mountain region and getting a bid to the national meet, Air Force would venture to Tallahassee eager to build upon their Nuttycombe result in a field that was similar in size and greater in caliber.
This time, it was star low-stick Sam Gilman leading the way, posting a huge 26th place All-American finish to once again give the Falcons a frontend scoring edge in an overwhelmingly large field loaded with talent.
That, however, is where Air Force's national meet highlights would end.
Veteran Scott Maison held his own with a 98th place finish. His brother, Sean Maison, as well as teammates Ryan Johnson and Ryan Ioanidis, closed out the scoring with modest finishes of 129-143-144.
In the end, Air Force would settle for a 17th place finish.
On paper, that was a solid result, but it was also a slightly disappointing one. After all, the Falcons' 5th place finish at Nuttycombe suggested that they could be a top-10 team at the national meet.
However, one could argue that their 17th place finish may have been just as impressive.
Why?
Because Air Force didn't have one of their top scorers, Nick Scheller, toe the line.
It's really hard not to like the Air Force men going into this 2022 cross country season.
In fact, as I'm writing this, I'm wondering if we robbed them of one or two spots.Their mass number of returners, the potential impact that Scheller could have had on the national stage and their top incoming recruits are all roster aspects that are hard to ignore.
Still, the loss of someone like Ryan Ioanidis isn't ideal.
He was a very valuable and consistent scorer in all of the Falcons' biggest meets last fall. He was the team's second scorer at both the Dellinger Invite and the Mountain West XC Championships, the team's third scorer at the Nuttycombe Invite and the team's fourth scorer at the national meet.
Having someone like Ioanidis who was experienced, consistent and reliable clearly held tons of value for Air Force last year. Seeing him emerge as an upper-half scorer in Air Force's lineup was also a pleasant surprise.
With Will Kitzhaber, an occasional backend scorer who ran 28:53 (10k) this past spring, also gone, the Falcons will need to find one or two decent replacements to fill out the rest of their 2022 lineup.
Luckily, the returners on this team should be enough to counterbalance those losses...right?
The return of Sam Gilman will obviously be huge for Air Force this fall. We saw how lethal he could be on the grass in the postseason and he was arguably even better on the track. His range is incredible and his postseason this past spring was a major success.
Last fall, Gilman was not great at Nuttycombe, although we're not necessarily saying that a 42nd place finish in that field is bad. However, relative to Gilman's expectations, he likely should have been closer to the top-25.
Luckily, Gilman thrived on the national stage. And as long as he does that again 2022, then Air Force should be primed for major success once more.
Instead, the biggest uncertainty at the front of this lineup has to be Scheller. This is someone who was a standout low-stick in the regular season, placing 7th at Dellinger and then 19th at Nuttycombe.
The scoring potency that Scheller brought to the table for Air Force last year was monumental, but it's clear that something was up in the postseason. He faded hard to 25th place at the Mountain West XC Championships and then he didn't toe the line for the regional or national meets.
That isn't a great sign. Seeing him absent from competition since last fall is also far from encouraging as well.
Let's play a game. Let's suppose that Scheller placed 40th overall at last year's national meet, the final All-American spot. That finish would have resulted in him scoring 35 team points for Air Force.
If you were to include that result in the team scoring and then factor-in displacement, Air Force would have cut-off 82 points and finished as, you guessed it, the 13th best team at the national meet.
No, that's not the entire reason why we have Air Force ranked at TSR #13, but it should help our case when we post this.
But let's take a look at the rest of this team and see how else we can justify this ranking.
The return of Scott Maison is much more important than some people realize. We weren't initially sure if he had eligibility remaining, but he is once again listed on Air Force's 2022 cross country runner.
Maison was great last year, emerging as a consistent and steady scorer throughout last fall. He was 98th at the national meet and proved to be fairly reliable. While any further progress from him in 2022 would be nice to have, the greatest room for upside in this lineup shouldn't necessarily stem from him.
Instead, it will come from his brother Sean as well as fellow teammates Ryan Johnson, Ethan Marshall and Luke Combs.
While Scott was a bit more consistent, Sean showed that he could (at times) be just as good.
The younger brother was the team's second scorer at the Dellinger Invite (placing 15th) and was the team's third scorer at the national meet (placing 129th). But at meets like Nuttycombe, the Mountain West XC Championships and the Mountain regional meet, Sean failed to finish inside the team's top-five.
There is no doubt that the younger Maison brother can be a scorer for this team in 2022. In fact, he already was one last year. But if he can have his best races on a more consistent basis, then Sean will be very useful as Air Force looks to round out their lineup.
Then there is Ethan Marshall. His 21st place finish at Dellinger and 58th place finish at Nuttycombe were sneaky-good. Those results allowed the Kansas native to emerge as a top-five scorer for his team in each of those meets.
But after a 13th place finish at the Mountain West XC Championships, which was far from bad, Marshall remained absent from the rest of the postseason.
And I'll admit, I found that a little odd, especially since his scoring value at Nuttycombe theoretically translated very well to a field as large and as competitive as the national meet.
Other guys like Ryan Johnson and Luke Combs showed promise last year, but were never full-blown scorers or varsity contributors on a consistent basis. That said, Johnson was the team's top scorer at the regional meet (18th) while Combs placed 72nd at Nuttycombe.
Combs also ran 7:56 (3k) and 13:50 (5k) earlier this year.
The men who are projected to be at the backend of this lineup hold really solid value. However, it also seems like many of these men struggled to run well on the same day. At first, that may not sound ideal, but when you have a lineup that's as interchangeable as Air Force was last year, then you have to imagine that the Falcons' floor will be pretty high in 2022.
And that's a good thing!
But what could this team look like when the final two or three scorers in their lineup do run well on the same day? Would that actually improve the scoring value in those lineup spots?
Maybe, but the scoring potential that Ryan Ioanidis left behind can't be reproduced if the bottom two or three scorers in this lineup simply replicate their 2021 performances. They'll also have to make noticeable improvements, either individually or as a whole, to make up for the loss of their veteran leader.
Luckily, there are a few extra reinforcements on this team who could send the Falcons soaring to even greater heights in just a few months time.
Bryce Lentz was one of the NCAA's breakout distance stars of the 2022 outdoor track season. The Virginia native was a talented high schooler, but what he accomplished in his first year of collegiate competition was very impressive.
Not only did Lentz run 8:39 for the 3000 meter steeplechase and qualify for the outdoor national meet, but he also ran 13:57 for 5000 meters!
It would be hard to imagine a scenario where Lentz isn't in Air Force's top-seven this fall. An 8:39 steeplechase mark is simply too good to not make him a varsity scorer. And frankly, there's no reason why he can't be a scorer.
The only question, of course, is where in this scoring lineup does he fit?
Replicating the points scored by Ioanidis at meets like Nuttycombe is going to be a challenge, especially for someone like Lentz who hasn't raced on the grass at the collegiate level before.
But if this steeple standout can be one of the multiple backend scorers on this roster who collectively make an effort to chip away at that empty scoring gap, then that should be just as good in our eyes.
And if Lentz builds even further on his current fitness?
Well, if that happens, then the Air Force men may have three All-American candidates come November.
Of course, Lentz isn't the only member of this supporting cast.
Aidan Boyle, for instance, ran 8:53 in the steeplechase last spring while Eli Bennett ran 13:54 for 5000 meters that same season. Together, one of these men seemingly has a good chance of earning a varsity role within this Air Force lineup in the coming weeks.
And then there's the incoming recruiting class, a group that is filled with high-octane youngsters with incredible stats. Let's take a look at a few of them...
California native Brenton Maddox has run 8:30 for 3000 meters.
Georgia native Ethan Ashley has run 15:00 for 5000 meters and was 23rd at the Eastbay XC National Championships last fall.
California native Zach Ayers has run 8:56 for 3200 meters and 14:53 for 5000 meters. He placed 21st at the Eastbay XC National Championships last fall.
Iowa native Jackson Mace-Maynard has run 4:09 in the mile and 9:06 for 3200 meters.
Colorado native Jayden Nats has run 14:49 for 5000 meters.
California native Max Sannes has run 8:59 for 3200 meters and 14:53 for 5000 meters. He placed 22nd at the Eastbay XC National Championships last fall.
Not too shabby, huh?
Air Force's freshman class is wildly impressive. Pairing them with Bryce Lentz forces us to believe that the Falcons could be even more dangerous in 2022 than they were in 2021 -- and that's saying a lot.
And when you look at all of these options, replacing Ioanidis seems like less and less of a concern as we enter the fall months.
Did we just rob Air Force from a few spots in our rankings?
Personally, I think we did. On paper, this is a complete team that has everything you could ask for. Between their firepower, middle lineup scorers, endless depth and high upside names, there doesn't seem to be any glaring flaws in this top-seven.
Still, there are understandable reasons why we opted to bring Air Force back in our rankings.
We think trying to replace Ioanidis in the team scoring is going to be a little trickier than expected. It might require Air Force to experiment with a few lineup combinations before they get it right.
We also have no idea where Scheller is at fitness-wise right now. We have every reason to believe that he could be a factor for the Falcons this fall, but he hasn't raced since late October...which is not a good look.
There's also no guarantee that Lentz will translate his steeple success to the grass.The same goes for the high school accolades of Air Force's newest recruits.
But truthfully, I feel like I'm stretching to find concerns with this team.
Air Force is going to be a problem regardless of who they lineup next to in 2022.
So get on the bandwagon while you can. Otherwise, you might miss out.