TSR Collaboration
Oct 5, 202225 min
Updated: Oct 6, 2022
Written by Maura Beattie & Scotty Loughlin, additional commentary and edits by Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Theses rankings are based on how an individual fares throughout the entirety of a season, not just how they ran at the NCAA XC Championships.
Was not ranked in our last update.
First number indicates how much the athlete has moved in the rankings.
The second number indicates where the athlete was ranked in our last update.
McKenna Lee deserves an All-American finish this season arguably more than anyone else who hasn't already earned that honor. The BYU ace finished oh-so-close to a top-40 national meet spot on two occasions, finishing 41st in the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships and then 46th at the fall national meet.
So where do we forecast her to finish this season? For the moment, right on the cusp of an All-American honor yet again, but on the outside looking in.
Lee had a very solid outing at the Cowboy Jamboree, finishing 18th in a loaded field. Just to put the meet’s depth into perspective, Lee was less than 10 seconds from finishing in 9th place. If she cracks the top-10 at that meet, would she crack our top-40?
We would almost certainly say yes.
It feels like luck will swing Lee’s way soon...it just has to! But at this point, her most commendable trait is consistency as well as her extensive national meet experience. While her Cowboy Jamboree result could have been a little bit better (which is why she drops), she's still plenty strong enough to stick around in our top-50...for now.
Longtime Michigan star Ericka VanderLende drops back a handful of spots in our top-50 rankings after a tough day at the Cowboy Jamboree where she finished 97th overall. Despite this, we have more confidence in her regaining the form that she has shown in past seasons.
The Cowboy Jamboree was, without a doubt, the most competitive September-time meet that VanderLende has ever competed in throughout her career. At this stage of the schedule, when looking at past seasons, we’ve seen her dominate smaller fields, winning the Buckeye Preview in 2019 and finishing 5th at the Louisville Classic a year ago.
Should we penalize her for having an “off” day in a national-caliber field this early into the season? Well, yes, an adjustment is certainly necessary, but it would be unfair to count out the Wolverine veteran from retaining a spot in our top-50 without the chance to rebound at Nuttycombe.
VanderLende's inconsistency in larger fields continues to be a challenging aspect of her resume to gauge, but it's clear that she's still one of the better cross country runners in the NCAA.
Northwestern’s Rachel McCardell falls back in our rankings this week after some unexciting, but still respectable, performances at the Michigan BIG 10 Preview and the Gans Creek Classic. She isn't running poorly by any means, but she'll need to make some adjustments moving forward.
Opening her season at Michigan, the Wildcat veteran recorded an 8th place finish, but she was well back from the leaders. McCardell made some improvements by finishing 2nd at Gans Creek this past weekend, but it’s hard to look past her losing to some unranked athletes at both meets.
Looking at McCardell’s cross country season last fall, she had a very similar start to her fall campaign before going on to finish 8th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and 3rd at the Midwest regional meet.
This Northwestern ace will need to follow in the footsteps of her 2021 season in order to stay in our rankings, but that past history is enough to keep her in our top-50...for now.
An early-season loss to Olivia Howell, teammate Faith Linga and Emma Milburn wasn't ideal for Joy Chirchir. And while that wasn't a bad result, the Toledo Rocket was already on the cusp of our rankings and there were numerous breakout stars ready to take her spot.
Luckily, Chirchir was able to do just enough at Joe Piane (place 11th) to stay inside our top-50. The Toledo star was able to take down the likes of Marlee Starliper, Samree Dishon, Grace Fetherstonhaugh, Amaris Tyynismaa, Emma Heckel and numerous others.
That was a super impressive performance which was able to counter her unexciting rust-busting effort at the John McNichols Invite.
Chirchir's consistency still needs to improve after an up-and-down 2021 cross country season. However, if she can steady her performances from here on out, then we'll move her close to Starliper if appropriate.
A 9th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree was an extremely promising breakout race for Savannah Roark who may have an argument to be ranked higher than TSR #46. However, in comparison to a few other breakout stars, this feels appropriate.
Either way, Roark's rise as a low-stick in Stillwater, Oklahoma a couple of weeks ago was huge. She gives this team a massive scoring spark after losing Amanda Vestri and her top-tier high school success leads us to believe that this Syracuse ace is the real deal.
She may be ranked at TSR #46, but Roark is more susceptible to a ranking improvement than a ranking reversion.
Despite falling a few spots, Sami Corman has delivered on our expectations for her so far this season, setting up camp just outside of our top-40 is solely due to a few other athletes having breakout-type performances.
Corman looks steadier than she has ever been, earning a huge runner-up finish at the IU Coaching Tree Invite and then later placing 5th at Paul Short. Those are two excellent results which reflect the scoring value that we knew she would bring to this Hoya roster in 2022.
Meanwhile, Chloe Scrimgeour is having a monster breakout season. She was solid as a backend piece for this team in 2021, but she has since emerged as a truly elite low-stick this fall. Finishing 3rd at the IU Coaching Tree Invite and then 4th at Paul Short is promising consistency that not all breakout stars have shown (or been able to show) this season.
Corman and Scrimgeour have now shown on multiple occasions that they can be part of a dangerous trio of scorers alongside Maggie Donahue. Not only that, but they’ll have even greater opportunities to move up these rankings as the Georgetown women take on more competitive fields.
It's admittedly tough to rank Brown right now. She lost to the Georgetown trio in a larger and deeper field (Paul Short), but also got the edge over those same three women en route to an overall win at the Coaching Tree Invitational.
Where does that leave her relative to the Hoyas?
We don't have a good answer for that, but it feels like we shouldn't be moving her too far from her original ranking in one way or another.
Brown exceeded expectations as a freshman last fall, but wasn’t quite able to channel her talent into an All-American finish as she crossed the line in 65th place at the NCAA XC Championships.
This season, however, the Tar Heel ace has progressed masterfully under Coach Chris Miltenburg and has positioned herself into a strong contender to exit with All-American honors.
We knew that Samree Dishon would be good this fall, but I'm not sure that we saw her being this good this early in the season.
Admittedly, Dishon has shown flashes of brilliance in the past as evidenced by a 26th place finish at Nuttycombe last season. However, finishing 13th at this year’s Joe Piane Invitational, which was loaded with numerous high-caliber stars, beat our expectations for this New Mexico ace.
If Dishon can continue this momentum over the next two months, then she may end up being one of the established lead scorers on this team come November...and that's not something that we would've guessed coming into this season.
Haley Herberg has not yet raced this season.
Michigan’s Kayla Windemuller has been on a roll since the outdoor track season and she has seemingly carried that success from the oval to the cross country course fairly seamlessly.
In her first meet this fall, Windemuller finished 3rd on her home course at the Michigan BIG 10 Preview, just a touch over one second out of the win. That race wasn’t a fluke for the Wolverine as she later placed 14th in a deep field at the Cowboy Jamboree, beating many top names in the process.
Windemuller was 6th last fall at the BIG 10 XC Championships before finishing 79th at the national meet. However, based on the way that she has been competing so far this season, challenging for the conference championship title and jumping into the top-30 portion of our rankings shouldn’t be out of the question.
She was, after all, the top BIG 10 finisher at the Cowboy Jamboree two weekends ago.
If you’re like us, you’re probably trying to figure out who Amina Maatoug is.
The new Duke standout hails from the Netherlands and comes to the NCAA with an 800 meter PR of 2:03 and a 1500 meter PR of 4:15. Naturally, you’d think that the cross country course might not suit this middle distance ace.
That, however, would be an incorrect assumption as Maatoug has gone on to record two top-two finishes in as many meets so far this fall.
Beginning with the Virginia Invitational, Maatoug crossed the finish line well ahead of the field, winning by an eye-catching margin of 13 seconds. It may not have been a star-studded field that she was facing, but it was enough for her name to be recognized.
Two weeks later at Paul Short, the Duke Blue Devil backed up her early-season win by finishing 2nd to Utah Valley’s Everlyn Kemboi. Maatoug was only a mere second outside of the win, but finishing runner-up allowed her to take down numerous star-caliber talents from Georgetown and North Carolina.
Maatoug is currently riding a ton of momentum and has shown us on multiple occasions that she is legitimate All-American contender. We still need to see her build more consistency and continue to valid herself, but all signs are pointing upwards for this UNC ace.
While teammate Perri Bockrath has been running like a sure-fire All-American (at least early-on), Tori Herman hasn’t recaptured that same form from last fall which led her to a monster 17th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.
Herman's 3rd place finish at the North Alabama Showcase wasn't at all a concerning result, but her 21st place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, while certainly not bad, didn't give us the same high-octane scoring spark that we were hoping to see.
Herman is too accomplished to be falling out of our rankings (or even our top-40), but we'll be interested to see how she navigates the rest of this season in similar-caliber fields.
Molly Born has not yet raced this season.
Seeing Maddy Denner drop in our rankings is admittedly not all too shocking at the moment as the Notre Dame veteran is a great championship racer, but has been plagued by some inconsistency.
Denner’s finish at the Joe Piane Invitational, a 35th place showing, pushes her back in our rankings, but there’s still a few opportunities for Denner to get her racing legs and championship drive back in her before the postseason begins.
We saw the same thing happen to Denner last fall and she eventually rallied, so a TSR #36 ranking seems appropriate knowing what's to come.
For the Kentucky Wildcats as a team, having Perri Bockrath step up her game to the level that she has is an extremely welcomed result. Winning the North Alabama Showcase title over Alabama’s Hilda Olemomoi, who would go on to finish 3rd at Joe Piane, was a massive spark that was soon followed-up by a massive 8th place finish at the loaded Cowboy Jamboree.
After running a huge 9:52 steeplechase PR this past spring and qualifying for the outdoor national meet, it's hard to suggest that Bockrath's recent success is a fluke.
She isn't just extending her momentum from the spring, she's building on it.
We'll admit, a TSR #34 ranking feels a bit high for Maia Ramsden, but when you break it all down, she's plenty deserving of this spot.
The Harvard ace placed 7th at the Cowboy Jamboree two weeks ago in what was a massive breakout cross country performance for Ramsden. Yes, she was a top-10 finisher in the Northeast region last fall, but this result is unlike anything we have seen from her before.
When you consider that Ramsden ran 4:12 for 1500 meters and qualified for the outdoor national meet this past spring, you have to believe that her fitness that has simply taken a massive step upwards since last fall.
Because of that, she slots in at TSR #34 in our cross country rankings.
Hentemann is racing in the shadows of star teammates Natalie Cook and Taylor Roe, but that doesn’t mean that she should be overlooked.
The Oklahoma State long distance specialist opened her 2022 cross country season with a 12th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, missing out on the top-10 by only three seconds. Hentemann is more than capable of closing the gap on her teammates and catching competitors off guard based on her strength and experience.
Still, for the most part, her performance two weekends ago was right on par with expectations. She stays at the same spot in our rankings, but that's more due to how others performed rather than anything Hentemann did.
Maggie Donahue’s results during the early portion of the season have mirrored her talented teammates, Sami Corman (TSR #45) and Chloe Scrimgeour (TSR #44), as the Georgetown veteran has finished 5th at the Coaching Tree Invitational and 3rd at Paul Short.
So why does she rank higher than the other Hoyas?
Well, it's almost entirely based on her proven national meet success.
Given Donahue’s All-American honor from last fall and extended success from the spring, we thought she would be placing just a touch higher in these results. At the same time, let's not act like she's been running poorly. She's been a solid and consistent low-stick for the Hoyas as expected.
A signature result at Nuttycombe could allow her to reenter our top-30 and maybe even our top-20 as well. But at the very least, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Donahue isn't ranked this fall.
Northern Arizona's Elise Stearns and Annika Reiss just had the two biggest breakout races of the 2022 cross country season so far...and depending on who you ask, it's not close.
This duo was on a mission at the Cowboy Jamboree two weekends ago and they more than surpassed expectations with their dual efforts.
Stearns and Reiss not only catapulted the Lumberjacks to 2nd place in the team standings, but they also found themselves amongst an elite group of women. Stearns finished 5th overall while Reis placed 6th, only three seconds apart.
This NAU tandem displayed their newfound strength in dominating fashion as we head into the final preparation weeks before the championship portion of the season. And if Stearns and Reiss can build upon these performances, then All-American honors will be the bare minimum of our expectations for these two women.
Until then, we think their introduction into our rankings is nicely capped at spots that sit just on the fringe of our top-30.
Despite a slight one-spot dip in her ranking, Marlee Starliper had a great start to her NCAA cross country career when you consider the fact that she’s only toed the line for two collegiate races on the grass thus far, both of which have come this season.
After taking down proven veterans Michaela Reinhart (formerly of Duke) and teammate Savannah Shaw at the Adidas XC Challenge to finish 2nd overall, Starliper’s biggest test of this cross country season came at the Joe Piane Invitational where she would add an instant impact to the Wolfpack’s success, placing 12th in an elite, top-heavy field.
A TSR #29 ranking feels fair (for now) when considering the breakout results of some other athletes, but make no mistake, Starliper has the talent and potential to skyrocket up this list in October. For her first major cross country race, she has left us believing that there is a significant amount of untapped upside remaining within her.
New Mexico’s Amelia Mazza-Downie may have been the second Lobo across the finish line at the Joe Piane Invitational, but for a top-30 talent, we're not entirely surprised.
Mazza-Downie recorded a solid 10th place finish this past weekend, but she was 10 seconds out of 5th, firmly establishing herself as a top-30 talent, but making it harder for her to be ranked higher than TSR #28 for the time-being.
The Lobo ace has been on the cusp of All-American honors twice in cross country, but now has a 15:37 (5k) personal best, as well as 32:55 (10k) strength, a combination of marks that could theoretically make her a top-20 talent.
But for now, this seems like an appropriate spot for Mazza-Downie.
Isabel Van Camp moves up a couple spots after a strong start to her 2022 campaign on the grass.
First, she secured a huge 10th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, a meet which featured multiple national title contenders on the course that will host the NCAA XC Championships. We billed that meet as a “prove it” race for Van Camp after her All-American finish last fall and she answered the call loud and clear.
The Razorback star then followed up that performance with a huge win at the Chile Pepper XC Festival over former unattached teammate Lauren Gregory (by two tenths of a second) as well as an underrated talent in Irene Rono.
Together, those results suggest that Van Camp's track success has been seamlessly translating to the grass (so far). She's not so far above our expectations that we're stunned by her results, but she deserves a minor improvement.
The Furman sophomore has competed well in her first few meets of the 2022 cross country season, recording two top-two performances, one at a home meet and one at the Louisville Classic. Neither meet saw the deepest competition to challenge Graham, but it gives her some momentum to carry with her as the calendar switches to October.
At the Furman Invitational, Graham easily got the win via an 11-second victory. That result set her up nicely to take on her next race, one that featured West Virginia’s Ceili McCabe.
Graham held her own against the All-American from West Virginia, finishing a clear runner-up over 3rd place. And although she was still 13 seconds behind McCabe, the Paladin star showed us that there is room for her to fine-tune her skills before her next big competition.
She only drops this week to the late-20’s of our list this week due to some stellar performances from others at larger meets, but when Graham races at Nuttycombe, she could make that jump up to the top-20 with the right result.
Welcome to the NCAA, Hilda Olemomoi!
The JUCO transfer has wasted no time becoming a household name for distance fans around the country. After knocking off Tori Herman (TSR #38) to finish 2nd at the North Alabama Showcase, we knew Olemomoi would be an athlete to keep an eye on, potentially giving the Crimson Tide a stable scoring piece around 30th place at Joe Piane in the middle of their lineup.
However, what no one expected was the sheer firepower that she later displayed as Olemomoi stormed to the finish line in South Bend in 3rd place behind only Katelyn Tuohy and Mercy Chelangat.
Olemomoi has burst onto the scene much in the same manner that her teammate Flomena Asekol did last season. And while we still need to see her produce these kind of results on a more consistent basis, this is a massive result which has the potential to produce an even better ranking in the near future.
In her first race since a 3000 meter effort at Washington back in February, O’Neill placed a solid 22nd at the Cowboy Jamboree. Not bad for her first race back, but certainly not the result we were looking for.
O’Neill is an extremely strong cross country runner and has shown that on numerous occasions. Look at her consistency on TFRRS when it comes to recording multiple wins or top-10 results in national-caliber fields. We aren’t going to put too much stock into her Cowboy Jamboree result, mainly because we know that she's at least capable of more.
And with the emergence of rising teammate talents Elise Stearns and Annika Reiss, O’Neill could give the Lumberjacks another boost in team scoring if she can get back to her elite low-stick ways.
While Addie Engel has yet to compete in an overwhelmingly talented field thus far in 2022, there’s little reason to think that she wouldn’t be up for the task when the time comes.
Engel won her season opener at the Michigan BIG 10 Preview, taking down Ericka VanderLende (TSR #49) by less than one second and also defeating Kayla Windemuller (TSR #40) in the process. The Buckeye ace was also excellent at the Griak Invitational, finishing 2nd overall, a result that was admittedly expected of Engel considering the field around her.
There’s nothing to dislike about Engel at this point of the season, but we’ll need to see her star power against the nation’s best before she cracks our top-20.
Emily Venters is starting to look like the runner that she was at Boise State.
Though she has only toed the line once this season, her most recent result was a convincing win at the Griak Invitational over Ohio State’s Addie Engel (TSR #23). Despite a DNF result at the NCAA XC Championships last fall, we know that Venters can be an All-American at her best, as evidenced by her 2018 All-American finish when she was with Boise State.
A strong result at the upcoming Nuttycombe Invitational could vault Venters into the top-20 and maybe even our top-15. Her win over Engels is much better than some people realize, especially given how strong the Ohio State star looked against Michigan at the very beginning of the season.
This duo from Alabama sees a drop in our rankings after a solid, but admittedly unexciting, showing at Joe Piane this past weekend.
Tyynismaa and Asekol crossed the finish line in South Bend, Indiana on Friday in 15th place and 18th place, respectively. When they're at 100%, both juniors are very capable of finishing much closer to teammates Mercy Chelangat and Hilda Olemomoi.
Tyynismaa is still rebounding from an injury that hampered her going into last spring, and while she did rally towards the postseason, she is likely still regaining a base from her time off.
So as long as Friday was the floor in terms of what Tyynismaa and Asekol will do this fall, then there should theoretically be nowhere to go but up for this Alabama duo.
Since transferring from Indiana to Colorado, redshirt senior Bailey Hertenstein has led the Buffaloes in two meets.
The first meet, a time trial, saw Hertenstein take the individual win by 11 seconds. Not much can be analyzed about this performance as it was only contested against Colorado teammates, both attached and unattached, as well as multiple Colorado Christian athletes.
But as for her second meet, that performance we can pick apart.
At the Cowboy Jamboree, Hertenstein posted a respectable 11th place finish. However, ahead of her in the results are some women who she likely should’ve beaten based on her veteran experience and accolades. The new Buffalo runner remains fairly close to where we ranked her in the preseason, but gets a very slight one-spot bump back in our top-50.
Hertenstein seems to be replicating her past performances under the philosophy of Coach Mark Wetmore, but can she find another gear in her legs and take down a handful of top-tier talents that she's beaten in the past?
The newest veteran addition to the Wolfpack lineup has begun her next chapter in style.
We’ve known that Sydney Seymour has been a solid cross country runner during her time at Tennessee and we saw that she took a significant leap in her fitness last spring, running 15:34 for 5000 meters.
However, we didn’t know exactly how that success would translate to the grass.
Well, leave it to Coach Laurie Henes to work her magic yet again.
By finishing 6th at an incredibly deep Joe Piane field, Seymour’s scoring spark made a statement to the rest of the NCAA that the NC State women are just as good (or possibly even better?) than the lineup that yielded them the 2021 national title.
Seymour is ranked behind a few women who she beat at Joe Piane, but that's only because she has already made such a large jump in our rankings from her original spot.
If Seymour continues to follow this insane wave of momentum that she has picked up since the end of the indoor track season, then she could end up being one of the most dangerous women in the NCAA this season in terms of upside.
On her home turf, Notre Dame’s Olivia Markezich recorded an 8th place finish in a very deep (and top-heavy) field. This was a vast difference compared to how the junior performed last fall at the same meet when she finished 74th.
So does this mean that Markezich will see more consistency in her racing this fall?
The Fighting Irish ace had a slow start to her 2021 racing season before finishing 7th at the NCAA XC Championships, but that tough seasonal start seems to be behind Markezich so far this fall..
She drops one spot in our rankings, but it's hard to really say much more. For the most part, she matched our expectations.
Even though a 16th place finish in a field like Joe Piane Invitational is strong, Emma Heckel of New Mexico is likely capable of more. As the Lobo’s fourth runner across the finish line, was well within striking distance of her teammates, but was clearly out of the running for a top-10 finish, a minor surprise given her TSR #8 preseason ranking.
But wait, there's a catch.
The sophomore ace surprisingly matched her 2021 Joe Piane finish, except this time she produced a faster time in a much better field.
Heckel will need to mirror the remainder of her 2021 season over the next two months to return back to a top-10 ranking. We're not exactly worried about her role as a low-stick, but for now, she drops back a bit in our rankings.
As commendable as New Mexico’s depth as a team was on Friday, Larkin reaffirmed her role as a legitimate low-stick in her own right. The Lobo star opened her season tremendously well with a 9th place finish at the Joe Piane Invitational.
Yes, she does drop a bit in our rankings, but that's because the women who did fall out our top-10 weren't many and the women who cracked our top-15 were plentiful.
There is admittedly not much more you could ask of the Lobo veteran. She rarely has "off" days and has been an All-American on the grass more than once. She may have only barely cracked the top-10 individual results on Friday, but don’t be shocked if Larkin rejoins the top-10 portion of our rankings after Nuttycombe.
There are a lot of Power Five teams that wish they had Calli Doan in their lineup.
The Flames senior was one of our “under the radar” athletes who we mentioned to keep an eye on in our preview of the Joe Piane Invitational.
While Doan was ranked TSR #15 entering that meet, most of the narratives were surrounding the individual battle between Katelyn Tuohy and Mercy Chelangat, and the team battle between NC State, New Mexico, Alabama and Notre Dame.
Naturally, it was easy to forget that someone with as much firepower as Doan was toeing the line with the athletes from those schools. But the Liberty star came through and scored a huge 7th place finish on Friday, further solidifying her place amongst the NCAA elites just like our preseason ranking suggested.
Due to the Flames’ schedule, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Doan against this caliber of competition until the Southeast Regional XC Championships, but don’t make the oversight of forgetting exactly how talented she is.
Kaylee Mitchell was a surprise All-American finisher at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships, but was really able to break out on the track last spring as she ran 9:34 in the steeplechase to take home 6th place at the outdoor national meet in a historically fast race.
Those factors effectively placed All-American expectations upon Mitchell's shoulders entering this cross country season, but it was not yet known if she should be gauged as a fringe top-40 runner or closer to our top-10.
That uncertainty was clearly and definitively answered at Joe Piane this past Friday when the Oregon State star secured a huge 4th place finish ahead of every NC State runner not named Katelyn Tuohy.
Who saw that coming?
Suddenly, seeing Mitchell ranked at TSR #13 feels almost conservative, but we can’t put too much stock into a single performance. The Beaver ace will have an opportunity to crack our top-10 if she rides this hot streak into a successful finish at the upcoming Nuttycombe Invitational.
Frentheway was only three seconds out of runner-up honors at the Cowboy Jamboree, but had to settle for 4th place, a still-fantastic result that puts her in a new tier. The senior from BYU appears to be the new front-runner for a team that is in a cross between rebuilding and reloading after the graduation of some key athletes.
In Stillwater, Frentheway recorded a time of 20:23, a mark that was 11-seconds faster than she ran in the spring of 2021 at the unprecedented NCAA Winter XC Championships. We knew that she was a strong and valuable scorer, but this is the first time that Frentheway has shown glimpses of being a true national elite outside of maybe her 15th place finish at the winter cross country national meet.
If Frentheway continue to finish amongst the leaders this season, then we may not have a choice but to put her inside our top-10 in the coming weeks.
It was a little out of the ordinary to see Forbes fade to 9th place at Paul Short after two (unsurprising) wins to start her season. With that showing, Forbes falls back two spots in the rankings this week.
The Rice superstar is definitely capable of more and she has shown that on numerous occasions. However, a 9th place finish in a large national caliber field isn't enough to dismiss as nothing other than a fluke, but it's not enough to help her ranking, either.
Rice doesn’t usually compete at the premiere meets of the season, but that’s going to change in the coming weeks as the Owls head to Oklahoma State for the Weis-Crockett Invitational (which is essentially Pre-Nationals).
With two weeks to get back to training, will Forbes be able to recollect herself after the Paul Short finish and get back into the top-three?
Kelsey Chmiel has not yet raced this season.
After not competing in the CU Time Trial, Emily Covert opened up her season at the Cowboy Jamboree and had a solid start to her season with a 16th place showing, although we were certainly looking for much more.
There is no doubt that Covert is one of the best women in the nation, but this wasn't her best result ever. We're confident that she can be better in the future and with a couple of other superstars falling out of our top-10, putting Covert at TSR #9 feels like the right move.
After a breakout 2021 fall cross country season, Sam Bush somehow got even stronger and more explosive on the track. She showed incredible range, elite fitness and her racing acumen was flat-out incredible.
We knew that Bush would be a major factor on the grass this year, but finishing 5th at the Joe Piane Invitational is a massively validating performance for the ongoing improvements that she's made over the last year.
In theory, the Joe Piane course favors the quick turnover of Bush a bit more than a few other women, but that's not to takeaway from her most recent effort. Her resume doesn't seem to have many "off" days and she seems to only by getting better every few weeks.
Parker Valby has not yet raced this season.
Seeing Everlyn Kemboi finish 3rd at the Cowboy Jamboree was beyond impressive, but people have breakout races all the time. And while she did have an impressive outdoor track season a few months ago, we needed to see more from Kemboi in order to validate the elite caliber of her bronze medal result in Stillwater.
Well, Kemboi did exactly that, taking home the win at Paul Short in what was a completely different field than what she saw at the Cowboy Jamboree.
A major marquee win at an established east coast meet and a 3rd place finish in what may be one of the most competitive fields of the 2022 season is impossible to ignore. While we don't usually have unranked names listed this highly in our rankings during our first update, few women have ever accomplished so much in a breakout season in the month of September.
For that reason, she sits at TSR #6.
It’s hard to push Ceili McCabe back one spot in our rankings this week, but that’s only because the meet she competed at wasn’t exactly the deepest.
In her season opener, the Mountaineer All-American star raced her way to the win at the Louisville Classic, showing us that she didn’t need a rust-buster to get her season going. Her finishing time of 16:23 was four seconds quicker than her 2021 victory, a promising result when paired with the fact that she defeated Furman star Bethany Graham as well.
McCabe broke out onto the scene last fall, never failing to finish outside of the top-three. If she can replicate that trend later this season, then it’s likely that her name remains in the conversation of outside individual title contenders this fall.
Although Taylor Roe slides back one spot in the rankings, she is still a legitimate threat to win the individual national title in November if Tuohy isn't at 100%.
After breaking out in the fall of 2020, Roe has been a fascinating athlete to follow throughout her subsequent seasons. As the expectations for her rise, so do the level of her performances.
Despite a narrow 2nd place finish behind teammate Natalie Cook at the Cowboy Jamboree, Roe’s result was still a huge statement to the rest of the nation that she is fit and dangerous. She took down numerous women who have All-American credentials to their names, and many women who will likely earn that same honor two months from now.
By kicking off her senior season with a result like that, it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world if Roe stuns the field (i.e Tuohy) over the last kilometer of the NCAA XC Championships and takes home gold.
After all, she already did exactly that in the 3000 meters during the last indoor season over both Katelyn Tuohy and Mercy Chelangat. Can she do it again...and on the grass this time?
Surprise, surprise! Natalie Cook is better than we originally anticipated she would be.
The freshman from Oklahoma State, a historical phenom during her prep years in Texas, kept everyone on their toes at the Cowboy Jamboree. Racing near the front, Cook didn’t let the pressure get to her as she bumped elbows with some of the nation’s best before breaking away for the win.
Cook ran away from teammate, and runner-up finisher, Taylor Roe, crossing the finish line for the win in her first collegiate competition.
Freshmen don’t typically find themselves this high in our rankings after just one race, but Cook isn't just like any superstar freshman. She is one of the most accomplished high school runners in American history.
For that reason, we have to consider her most recent performance as seriously as any veteran which is why she is ranked at TSR #3 right now.
Gosh, it’s painful to move Mercy Chelangat out of our TSR #1 spot.
Are we allowed to award someone a ranking of “1.5” or “1b”?
If so, Chelangat would certainly hold that honor.
Alabama’s ace has been, by far, the most consistent cross country runner across all divisions over the last three seasons. She has not finished any lower than 3rd place in a single meet (read that again – 3rd place!) since 2019 despite regularly competing in nationally competitive meets. And of course, she took home the individual crown at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships a year and a half ago.
Despite her lethal firepower and ability to somehow never have an “off” day on the grass, we’ve moved the reigning 10,000 meter champion down one spot due to a somewhat convincing win at Joe Piane by a certain NC State superstar (who you’ll hear more about in a moment) this past weekend.
But let's not forget that the NCAA XC Championships are going to be held, once again, on the same course where Chelangat took home NCAA gold a year and a half ago. She may not be the national title favorite anymore, but she's likely the favorite to pull an upset.
If this is your first time reading about NCAA cross country, then you should know that Katelyn Tuohy is the real deal. And honestly, that might even be putting it lightly.
In her first race since winning the 5000 meter national title at the NCAA Outdoor Championships, the NC State star picked up right where she left off. We were unsure if she could take down established cross country runner in Mercy Chelangat, but Tuohy proved us wrong en route to her dominating win at Joe Piane.
The Wolfpack front-runner led her team to the win by taking down Chelangat by 12 seconds, running a head-turning mark of 15:50 over 5000 meters. A win like this propels Tuohy to the top of the rankings and sets her up nicely for the remainder of the season.
And it makes us wonder...can she win every race by this big of a margin? Or, will she need to employ her quick turnover down the homestretch next time?
Regardless of the answer, it's hard to see a scenario where Tuohy loses throughout the rest of this season.
Everlyn Kemboi (Utah Valley)
Perri Bockrath (Kentucky)
Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown)
Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama)
Maia Ramsden (Harvard)
Amina Maatog (Duke)
Savannah Roark (Syracuse)
Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)
Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)
Samree Dishon (New Mexico)
Laura Mooney (Providence)
Zofia Dudek (Stanford)
Lucy Jenks (Stanford)
Adelyn Ackley-Fairley (Liberty)
Jenna Hutchins (BYU)
Sintayehu Vissa (Ole Miss)*
Alessia Zarbo (Oregon)
Elise Thorner (New Mexico)
Ruby Smee (San Francisco)
Abbe Goldstein (New Mexico)
Zofia Dudek (Stanford)
Lucy Jenks (Stanford)
Adelyn Ackley-Fairley (Liberty)
Alessia Zarbo (Oregon)
Ruby Smee (San Francisco)
Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)
Elise Thorner (New Mexico)
Grace Fetherstonhaugh (Oregon State)
Lexy Halladay (BYU)
Olivia Howell (Illinois)
Savannah Shaw (NC State)
Ella Baran (Colorado)
Anna Gibson (Washington)
Emmy Van Den Berg (Florida State)
Nicola Jansen (Bradley)
Riley Stewart (Stanford)
Danielle Verster (New Mexico)
Abbe Goldstein (New Mexico)
Jane Buckley (Providence)
Laura Mooney (Providence)
Yasna Petrova (California Baptist)
Irene Rono (Abilene Christian)
Hannah Miniutti (Colorado)
Keelah Barger (Utah)
Camren Riano (Miami (OH))
Elizabeth Mancini (La Salle)
Kelsey Harrington (North Carolina)
Sierra Atkins (UC-Dvais)
Jenna Hutchins (BYU)
Shea Ruhly (Wisconsin)
- Sintayehu Vissa was removed from our rankings due as she opted to turn pro.