Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Oct 4, 202216 min
NOTE: Theses rankings are based on how a team fared throughout the entirety of a season, not just how they ran at the NCAA XC Championships.
Was not ranked in our last update.
First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.
The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.
A 5th place finish, which came as the result of winning a tie-breaker against Butler, at the Joe Piane Invitational was super encouraging to see. Not only did the 49ers take down a "Just Missed" team in the Bulldogs, but they also took down a couple of teams that were ranked...and some that still are.
Scudder looked so darn good in his first true race of the season and their middle-lineup runners, Hunter White and Aaron Rovnak, were much better than expected.
Depth still needs to be a point of emphasis on this team and there were a few programs that Charlotte beat who will likely be better in the future.
Still, the 49ers shattered expectations and likely scored multiple Kolas points in South Bend, Indiana this past Friday. While there were certainly a handful of teams who could have taken over this top spot, none of them had as much success against national-caliber competition than the Charlotte men did.
A 9th place finish at Joe Piane is obviously not great. For most people, that would be enough for the Wolfpack to be ousted from our rankings...but we believe there is still so much more scoring potential on this roster.
Shanklin was outstanding as a low-stick last Friday and Brett Gardner looks like the secondary scorer that this team absolutely needed. And while their third and fourth scorers likely could have been better, the real point of emphasis was their fifth runner who faded back quite a bit.
However, it's important to note that neither Robinson Snider nor Hannes Burger ran for the Wolfpack on Friday. If they had, then this NC State team likely matches expectations and no one is concerned about them (at all).
We'll give them another meet before we make any major proclamations about where they should be ranked.
The Michigan men are in a very similar situation that the NC State men are in.
The Wolverines had Nick Foster and Arjun Jha post a pair of top-25 finishes this past Friday at the Joe Piane Invitational. That was a very promising 1-2 punch for Michigan, especially for Foster who likely had one of the better cross country races of his career.
But with substantial gaps plaguing the rest of this lineup, it's understandable why some people may have been underwhelmed by Big Blue's 8th place finish.
However, when you add Tom Brady into this lineup, a guy who didn't race on Friday, then this Michigan team likely finishes 5th place overall which is roughly in-line with our expectations.
Much like NC State, we're remaining cautious about some scoring deficiencies that we saw from this team in South Bend this past Friday. Still, when they're racing with a full lineup, they're still a top-25 team in the country.
We really liked the Princeton men this past summer, but just couldn't find enough room for them to be ranked in our preseason list.
However, after seeing the Tigers upset Harvard in an early-season battle, and later go to the Cowboy Jamboree and place 11th overall (once again beating the Crimson), it feels like the Princeton men have established themselves as the team to beat in the Ivy League.
We love what Anthony Monte is doing as a fringe low-stick for this group and Connor Nisbet's 33rd place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree was super encouraging as well. For the most part, this team has flexed compact scoring and minimal gaps -- all without Camren Fischer and with Daniel O'Brien recording a DNF result at the Cowboy Jamboree.
This is a fairly young team in comparison to a few other top-ranked squads. They likely have a high ceiling and while we still want to see more from them, it's hard to dislike a squad that doesn't appear to have many weaknesses.
A 4th place finish at the Joe Piane Invitational, a result that seems fairly on par with our expectations for this team, was enough to give the Bobcats a nice three-spot boost in our rankings.
I thought Montana State's lineup structure at Joe Piane would be very top-heavy with a fairly significant scoring gap somewhere in there. But instead, we saw the Bobcats flex great packing running by having their five scorers go 20-23-29-35-37. There wasn't as much firepower as we thought we would see, but their depth was far better than we expected.
Cooper West needs to be the star of this show. We felt pretty confident about Montana State through four runners, but we noted that they needed to find a reliable fifth runner. And after Friday, it looks like West is that guy.
Montana State still has zero room for error, but at least they have a complete top-five, and that's not something that every team can say that they have right now.
While a 12th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree may not be ideal for Texas, I also don't think that this result was much of a surprise. Outside of Princeton, the Texas men lost to every team that was ranked ahead of them. They also beat Harvard, Washington and Ole Miss.
Haftu Knight (24th) and Rodger Rivera (30th) were actually a better 1-2 punch than what Princeton had and although the Longhorns sacrificed points in the latter-half of their lineup, that backend group swasn't that much worse than what the Tigers boasted.
However, maybe the biggest reason why we're keeping Texas ahead of Princeton is because Crayton Carrozza didn't run in Stillwater, Oklahoma. If he had, then he likely cuts off a good chunk of points from Texas' fifth scoring spot, effectively giving the Longhorns an edge over Princeton and maybe even a limited Gonzaga team.
Depth, just like we highlighted in the preseason, is still an area of emphasis for this team. Certain men just need to be flat-out better moving forward. But all things considered, the Cowboy Jamboree results actually aligned with our expectations fairly well.
I think people will look at this ranking and think that the Wildcats are overrated. They did, after all, lose to the North Carolina men by 36 points at Paul Short this past weekend!
However, what some people have failed to realize is that the 'Nova men put four guys in the top-10 at Paul Short -- and didn't even have their best runner.
If Haftu Strintzos, a top-10 individual talent, had run on Friday, then we're talking about Villanova not just beating North Carolina, we're talking about Villanova destroying North Carolina.
And no, I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say that.
We still have Villanova ranked behind the Tar Heels just because we want to actually see Strintzos race before we do anything more. Not only that, but the margin for error after this team's projected top-five is almost zero.
Still, few teams in the NCAA are more exciting than the Villanova men. They could be scary good over the next two months.
Well done, Syracuse.
We had major reservations about the Syracuse men coming into this fall. They struggled last year, lost a handful of key veterans and have a history of roller coaster cross country seasons. But at the Cowboy Jamboree, we saw phenomenal pack running by the Orange as their men's team went 31-34-35-41-62 en route to an 8th place team finish.
Was there a ton of firepower in that top-five? No, admittedly not, but that compact scoring left Syracuse with very few lineup gaps and almost no excessive scoring. As a result, they took down a Scheller-less Air Force team as well as a Mwaura-less and Bates-less Gonzaga team.
Syracuse still needs to show better scoring potency and we simply need to see them put together an entire season of greater consistency. But in what might have been one of the most competitive September-time meets in NCAA history, the Orange were very solid and you have to respect that.
If they can simply replicate those kind of performances throughout the rest of the season, then they'll continue to rise in our top-25.
Nothing too crazy to say here about the North Carolina men. So far this season, they have matched our expectations.
Despite not having Wolfe, Anderson or Fleming at IU Coaching Tree Invite, the Tar Heels still took down a fully loaded (and quite respectable) Georgetown squad. Then, at Paul Short, Wolfe and Anderson did race and they went 1-2 while the rest of their team came together to take down a Strintzos-less Villanova squad.
I'll admit, knowing that UNC would have lost handily to Villanova if Strintzos had run isn't something that I can shake from my mind. On paper, the Tar Heels will need to have much better depth for future meets.
But Paul Short was likely more about Villanova's greatness than anything else. For that reason, the UNC men seem like they are in a fairly comfortable spot at TSR #17. They only falter because a team previously ranked behind them had a great showing at Joe Piane.
Honestly, I don't really have a whole lot to say here.
The Alabama men finished 3rd at Joe Piane Invitational this past Friday and that seems to be on par with expectations. Their top-three scorers were elite beyond measure and their supporting cast was just as good as we hoped they would be.
Things look good for the Alabama men right now. They do move back one spot in our rankings, but that's hardly their fault. That is simply the result of a conference and regional rival having a great race last Friday.
Seeing Tennessee earn a runner-up finish at Joe Piane last Friday didn't necessarily shock me. When you look at the teams that they beat in South Bend, Indiana, the results should be far from surprising.
However, what did surprise me was seeing how good the Vols were despite a few men not having their best races (and one name remaining entirely absent).
Abdalla (4th) had the best regular season race of his career, Jacobs (8th) probably could have been better, Nahom (19th) was the breakout star of this team, Lewis (33rd) was better than expected and Thiessen (40th) had the potential to be better than he was.
Nahom's rise is monumental. Without him this team looks very different.
Not only that, but Nate Kawalec didn't even run this past weekend!
The upside of this team looks incredibly exciting. Depth is suddenly less of a problem than we expected it to be and certain guys are just proving to be flat-out better than their previous performances suggested they would be.
The Vols are by no means infallible, but it's hard to dislike what they showed us on Friday.
It's hard to really gauge Portland right now. They haven't truly run a full varsity lineup and a few potential top-seven guys have been scattered throughout a few meets. Names like Kintzele, Ruiz and Kirk haven't even run yet and Strangio was last seen racing unattached.
We're still waiting to see a somewhat-full lineup from Portland in the coming weeks.
We really like Iowa State. We think they can be a scary-good team in 2022. But for the most part, the Cyclones haven't really faced anyone of note in their two meets so far this year. Ezekiel Rop looks like an outstanding low-stick and they may have a bit more depth than we anticipated them to have.
Even so, the men from Ames, Iowa are moving back just one spot to make room for the impressive performances that we saw at the Cowboy Jamboree.
Seeing the Air Force men finish 9th at the Cowboy Jamboree was hardly a surprise. Gilman was solid and his supporting cast of Marshall, Johnson and Maison were really steady middle-lineup scorers as well. With Sean Maison finishing 59th overall with tons of depth behind him, the Air Force men looked really solid and void of any scoring deficiencies.
The only true critique that we could offer to this team is that they need greater scoring potency. Gilman could have been a little bit better in Stillwater, Oklahoma, but with Nick Scheller not racing, it makes sense why the Falcons maybe looked a little thin in terms of fireower.
Scheller's expected return to this lineup could do wonders for this team. In fact, he might make for Air Force a top-10 program when it's all said and done.
Yes, Air Force did take down Gonzaga at the Cowboy Jamboree, but the Zags were missing two high-octane scorers in James Mwaura and Evan Bates, as well as a high school superstar Michael Maiorano.
For that reason, the Falcons sit at TSR #12.
A 10th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree may have been a little anti-climatic for the Gonzaga men, but when you consider who they were missing and who they were facing, it's hard to be disappointed by what the Bulldogs did.
Yacine Guermali (15th) proved to be the low-stick threat that we knew he could be, Wil Smith didn't even have his best race and the rest of this lineup wasn't that much worse than what Air Force had. When the Bulldogs eventually bring back James Mwaura and Evan Bates, they'll be a scary-good squad.
And if Michael Maiorano is eventually put in a Gonzaga singlet, then who's to say what this team's ceiling will be?
But until then, they will remain just outside of our top-10 until we see how their full lineup looks.
Sure, they didn't have star low-stick Brian Fay at the Cowboy Jamboree, but the Washington men were still flat-out bad in Stillwater, Oklahoma a couple of weekends ago. I could try to go through and evaluate each runner, but this team as a whole was capable of so much more.
That said, Luke Houser (26th) was probably the lone bright spot for this team.
Finishing 14th overall was far from ideal, but it was also such a clear "off" day for the Huskies that I don't think anyone is putting that much stock into their most recent result. We're dropping them in our rankings, but we refuse to believe that they'll run like that again this season...we think.
Wisconsin's commanding win at the Griak Invitational was far from surprising. The Badgers were simply the best team in the field and it showed via their 39-point score, a total of 31 points better than runner-up California Baptist.
Honestly, I thought the Badgers could have actually been more dominant, but it was still nice to see Jack Meijer step up and produce a huge 5th place finish ahead of Liking and Sharp.
Lineup gaps after this team's top-five may need to be monitored a bit more closely, but it's hard to truly pull any major insights over a field that the Badgers were supposed to dominate in the first place.
Seeing Wake Forest finish 6th at the Cowboy Jamboree and take down Colorado was really encouraging...but it was hardly surprising.
The Demon Deacons did defeat Colorado, but that was because the Buffaloes didn't have top scorer Austin Vancil. And when you look at how this Wake Forest lineup performed as a whole, you can only shrug your shoulders and say, "yeah this seems about right".
Las Heras (14th) was great, Vanoppen (23rd) was much better than expected and Martinez De Pinillos (29th) was a solid third scorer. The good news, however, is that Wake Forest has the potential be even better in the future. Facioni (44th) and Tewalt (68th) each had at least 20 fewer spots in them at a meet like the Cowboy Jamboree.
If this team has everyone run their best on the same day, then they could realistically challenge for the podium. That, of course, is much easier said than done.
The Washington men were originally at TSR #7, but they fell back to TSR #10, effectively moving a few teams behind them up one spot.
However, the Notre Dame men feel like the only team that actually earned their ranking improvement. They didn't just win the Joe Piane Invitational, they took home a convincing victory and still left room for improvement.
While the Irish didn't show as much firepower on Friday as we were expecting them to, they did have the combination of Kevin Berry, Carter Solomon, Izaiah Steury, Matthew Carmody and Carter Cheeseman go 10-13-14-18-26 in the overall results.
Every scorer except Carmody ran better than we expected, having what may have been the greatest cross country races of their respective careers. Not only that, but Carmody likely had 10 more spots in him and we didn't even see Josh Methner run!
Could we rank Notre Dame higher? Yes, probably, but we would like to see them take down a team ranked higher than Tennessee before we give them that honor. We really like the top-five pieces that we saw on Friday, but this is still a fairly new lineup with a lot of new varsity faces.
A 7th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree wasn't ideal relative to our expectations for the Buffaloes, but not having Austin Vancil certainly played a role in that final result. If he had run, then the Boulder-based men are definitely beating Wake Forest...although they probably still fall to Tulsa.
The good news is that Andrew Kent (8th) looks like the superstar low-stick that he showed glimpses of being during the indoor and outdoor track seasons. Pairing him with the hopeful return of Vancil, as well as the general improvement of the other men in this lineup, should mean that Colorado stays in contention for the podium this fall.
We're also not going to doubt Colorado or Coach Mark Wetmore too much. Historically, this program has been a problem in the postseason and we would expect more of the same a month and a half from now.
Tulsa's 5th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree was fantastic. We had serious questions about their depth and we didn't know if they would have a lineup ready to contend with other podium-caliber teams until the postseason.
But a couple of the Golden Hurricanes' All-American contenders, Cormac Dalton (12th) and Michael Power (18th), held their own while Shay McEvoy (22nd) was the name who Tulsa desperately needed to be great this season -- and as of two weekends ago, he was!
The fact that Isaac Akers (32nd) didn't have his best day and Tulsa still placed 5th is exciting to think about. Yes, there are still major questions about this team's depth (their fifth scorer finished 60th overall), but this group now has a very solid top-four instead of a very solid top-three -- and that's a massive positive in our eyes.
Yes, the Oklahoma State men did falter to 4th place at the Cowboy Jamboree without two of their All-American stars, but that's not why they drop to TSR #4 in our rankings.
This ranking is based on a recent report from Jonathan Gault of LetsRun which quoted Coach Dave Smith as saying, "We might lose one...I haven’t decided what I’m going to do yet ...People have made mistakes, put it that way.”
We're not going to speculate about who that is, but if it's someone in Oklahoma State's projected top-five (and that's a big "if"), then it's going to be very hard for the Cowboys to contend for a national title like we thought they could.
The good news is that Alex Maier (1st) looks like a potential individual national title contender, Victor Shitsama (3rd) may have just had the race of his life and Rory Leonard (17th) delivered on the potential that everyone knew he had.
Admittedly, Ryan Schoppe needs to be much better in the future and we likely need to see a non-varsity scorer have a breakout season to limit any excessive scoring.
Oklahoma State will still be plenty dangerous this fall, but their lineup won't be void of scoring deficiencies, either.
Yes, the BYU men did beat Stanford and NAU at the Cowboy Jamboree (en route to the overall victory), but neither of those opponents were running their full lineups.
Of course, you could say something similar about BYU who saw Brandon Garnica have a tough day in 80th place. But when looking at the Cougars' lineup structure, Garnica wouldn't have made as much of a dramatic difference even if he was at 100%.
The absence of Ky Robinson for Stanford or the absences of Quax, Sahlman and Hasty for NAU likely had bigger impacts.
Even so, BYU was flat-out incredible in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Clinger (7th) and Allen (11th) were great as always, but Joey Nokes (10th) had the race of his life to give his team a potential fourth All-American when you add Garnica into the mix.
With the Thompson brothers also having the best races of their still-young careers, placing 20th and 27th, the BYU men were simply not going to be stopped at the Cowboy Jamboree.
If you add Garnica into the mix and have him place 10th overall, then the Cougars score 61 points after displacement. That likely wouldn't be enough to take down Stanford if Ky Robinson had run, but it may have been enough to take down the Lumberjacks if they had run a full lineup...maybe.
Either way, BYU is solidly in the national title hunt and they should be dismissed from that conversation.
A runner-up finish at the Cowboy Jamboree was hardly surprising for a Stanford team that was expected to have some of the best firepower in that field. I mean, after all, was anyone actually surprised to see Charles Hicks (2nd) and Cole Sprout (4th) in the top-five?
Of course, the more important developments that we saw from Stanford's lineup was Thomas Boyden's 16th place finish and Robert DiDonato's 21st place finish. Those are massive results for the Cardinal who needed two more names to close out their lineup fairly quickly.
If Boyden and DiDonato are able to run that well throughout the rest of the season, then Stanford will likely be considered the favorites for the national title depending on how NAU rebounds and how BYU builds from here.
Because if Ky Robinson was in this field and had finished 5th overall, then the Cardinal score just 50 points and likely defeat a BYU lineup even if Garnica did run to his full potential.
We'd like to see if Boyden and DiDonato can repeat their performances later this fall and how Ky Robinson looks upon his return. For that reason, Stanford settles in at TSR #2...for now.
A 3rd place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree is likely not what anyone envisioned for the Lumberjacks two weekends ago. Nico Young (5th) and Drew Bosley (9th) were great as expected while Ryan Raff (19th) held his own.
However, this team's depth is looking like a potential challenge this fall. Kang Nyoak (38th) and Santiago Prosser (39th) were not at all bad, but the backend of this lineup will need to be much better if Northern Arizona is going to win the national title this fall.
George Kusche (86th) didn't have a great race and it also didn't help that Theo Quax, Brody Hastey or Colin Sahlman didn't run in this race.
One has to believe that an NAU lineup that features those four men racing at 100% would be able to win this meet and ultimately take home the national title...right?
Honestly, I'm not sure if that's a guarantee. The Lumberjacks likely would have needed another runner inside the top-15 to take down a fully loaded Stanford and/or BYU lineup, as well as a theoretical fifth runner inside the top-20...but even that may not have been enough.
A lot would have needed to go right in order for NAU to win at the Cowboy Jamboree. There's also no guarantee that we'll see Colin Sahlman this fall after Jonathan Gault of LetsRun quoted Coach Mike Smith as saying that Sahlman running in 2022 is, "on the more unlikely side."
And yet, despite all of that, we still think NAU should retain our TSR #1 (for now). They are too established, theoretically too deep and have too much upside to let one race in September knock them off from our top spot.
They'll stay here for now, but if they show any further lineup challenges in the future, then we won't hesitate to bring them down a spot or two.
Charlotte 49ers
Princeton Tigers
Syracuse Orange
Arkansas Razorbacks
Florida State Seminoles
Harvard Crimson
Harvard Crimson
Arkansas Razorbacks
Oregon Ducks
California Baptist Lancers
Butler Bulldogs
Cal Poly Mustangs
Utah State Aggies
Georgetown Hoyas
Virginia Cavaliers
Michigan State Spartans
Ole Miss Rebels
Florida State Seminoles
Colorado State Rams
Boise State Broncos
Furman Paladins
Duke Blue Devils
Utah Valley Wolverines
Kentucky Wildcats
Providence Friars
- California Baptist, Arkansas and Harvard were strongly considered for our TSR #25 spot. And while we do believe that each of those teams have shown tons of promise, we still need to see more from them. Charlotte, meanwhile, has at least proven that they can take advantage of top teams that aren't running at their best.