TSR's 2021 D1 Winter XC Top 50 Individuals (Men): Update #2

The below rankings take performances from this past fall into consideration, but they do not aim to penalize runners who did not compete last fall. The same can be said for athletes who ran last fall, but are not racing in cross country this winter (until the NCAA Championships).

Was not ranked in our last update.
 

First number indicates how much the athlete has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the athlete was ranked in our last update.

A thrilling race at the Mountain West XC Championships resulted in Garnia barely edging Air Force's Sam Gilman for the individual title. Gilman is a very strong talent and the Mountain West is a better conference than some people give it credit for. We like the progress that Garnica has made this season and it made sense to give him a nod for a ranking.

The Iona senior has won both of his races this year, the first one coming at the Spider Patriot XC Classic and the second one coming at the MAAC XC Championships where he crossed the line with two of his teammates.

O’Leary was 66th at the NCAA XC Championships in 2019 and has run plenty of fast times on the track in the past two years which sets him up incredibly well going into Stillwater despite not racing against top competition this winter.

That lack of racing leaves us a little cautious as to what we should expect from him, but Iona has a history of success and we like what O'Leary has shown us over the past few seasons.

El-Sandali is dropping in our rankings, but it's not really because of anything he has done. He finished 2nd overall alongside his teammates at the MAAC XC Championships last weekend, but he's probably going to be in contention to earn an All-American finish next week. He hasn't done much this season, but that doesn't make him any less talented.

After an underwhelming 24th place finish at the FSU Winter XC Classic, Dragon bounced back in a big way to finish 2nd at the FSU Winter XC Last Chance meet. Beating a top talent like Devin Meyrer was impressive and it shows that Dragon is nearing the potential that we knew he was capable of.

Dragon has shown this ability before, so despite it being his only strong showing of the year, we believe that his past experience will at least push him into the All-American conversation. Having a strong performance under his belt is likely good for his confidence as he goes into the most important race of the year.

Bienenfeld returns to our rankings despite not racing on the grass since our last update. However, the Tulsa men have continued to run exceptionally well and it's important to remember that Bienenfeld actually beat Peter Lynch earlier in the season. Not only that, but Bienefeld has been exceptional on the indoor oval, running some of the nation's top times.

The Cincy senior will certainly be in the All-American conversation on Monday, so we felt that it was only appropriate to give him a spot in our rankings.

One of the most impressive results of the past few weeks was seeing Duncan Hamilton finish 2nd at the BIG Sky XC Championships. Beating plenty of talented NAU and Southern Utah runners was incredible in his first cross country race of the winter.

The junior has been on fire on the track, running a converted 3:57 in the mile, but we don't think anyone expected him to be this strong on the grass. He does not have a ton of experience at the national meet and he will be running a few days after competing in the mile at NCAA Indoor Championships. Still, we are done underestimating Montana State runners as they continue to shatter expectations every time a new national contender arises from the program.

Where in the world did this come from? Guermali, after a handful of solid runs over the past few years, broke out in a big way at the West Coast Conference XC Championships to finish 4th ahead of top-ranked names like Brandon Garnica and Evert Silva. In fact, Guermali finished closer to Casey Clinger (3rd) then he did to Brandon Garnica (5th) which puts him in tremendous company.

It is only one race, which is why we don’t have him in the top-10 like Clinger, but it would not shock us to see Guermali vastly outperform this ranking in Stillwater.

Foster easily took home the title at the Southland Conference XC Championships which were held on the roads at Southeastern Louisiana’s campus. The senior continues his epic rise and his performances at the Southland Indoor Track and Field Championships where he won three titles, highlighted by an eyebrow-raising 13:40 (5k), further cemented his place amongst the NCAA’s best distance talents.

The Buffalo veteran followed up his strong FSU Winter XC Classic run with a very encouraging 7th place finish at the Battle Born XC Challenge, beating respectable names like Brodey Hasty and Cole Sprout in the progress.

Hornecker backed up that run with a solid, but unspectacular, 11th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships. While he was likely expected to finish near Alek Parsons (5th), seeing Hornecker's overall consistency this winter has been a great sign. He peaked at the perfect time last year and earned an All-American finish, so with his recent display of consistency, we think he can replicate that kind of performance in Stillwater.

An early-season win at the Lipscomb Winter XC Classic, followed by a 3rd place result at the BIG East XC Championships, was enough to give Bedard the nod for a TSR ranking. The Butler senior was outstanding back in December, running 28:16 for 10,000 meters. However, actually seeing him translate that success (or at least some of that success) to the grass is encouraging.

Two races equated to two runner-up finishes for Keane who has been a big reason why Butler has had so much success this winter. After finishing behind teammate Simon Bedard at the Lipscomb Winter XC Classic, Keane crossed the line one second behind Haftu Strintzos at the BIG East XC Championships.

This Butler junior has run some quick times on the track and it looks like that success has translated incredibly well to the grass as he heads to the NCAA XC Championships for the first time in his career.

Strintzos has been a great (and even underrated) distance talent for Villanova since 2019 when he finished 4th at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Championships. However, he appears to have taken a step up this year after winning the BIG East title over some strong challengers from Butler.

The Wildcat ace paced himself to track down Barry Keane and edge him for the conference title on Friday. Strintzos was 142nd at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships, but it's clear that he has found a new level of fitness and is clearly able to take down top-ranked talents this year. That bodes well for the Villanova sophomore when he toes the line at the national meet in Stillwater.

After holding his own at the Oklahoma State Invitational in the fall and the Silver State Collegiate Challenge this winter, Shumway had his first not-so-great result of the season at the West Coast Conference XC Championships.

Shumway's 15th place finish was not a terrible result, but he was 26 seconds behind teammate Brandon Garnica who he has raced next toe all year long. Still, Shumway has proven that he can be an All-American in the past, so one poor race does not move him out of our rankings.

Veatch has not run a cross country race since the BIG 10 Championships. However, he recently had a big 5k/3k double at the BIG 10 Indoor Championships where he took home two gold medals and ran a time of 13:42 for 5000 meters, beating out Morgan Beadlescomb in the process.
 

We don't love to emphasize track performances when it comes to cross country rankings, but we do think momentum and peaking is a real thing and that appears to be the case for this Indiana star.

The Michigan men were finally able to compete at the FSU Winter XC Last Chance meet and Meyrer made the most of the opportunity, finishing 3rd behind Adriaan Wildschutt and Joe Dragon.

The Wolverine low-stick will be the only member of his team competing at the NCAA Championships after Michigan was not selected for the national meet. While Meyrer has not had the opportunity to run much on the grass this year, he does have plenty of experience on the national stage and had a huge breakout performance in 2019. We should not be surprised if he finishes as an All-American once again this year.

Death, taxes and Alek Parsons peaking in the postseason.

After a solid 12th place run at the Battle Born XC Challenge, the Cardinal senior came through in a big way at the PAC-12 XC Championships to finish 5th overall, beating out top talents like Isaac Green, Alec Hornecker, Luke Houser and a handful of underrated names.

Parsons' ability to come through in the clutch, not just last weekend, but throughout his career, is well documented. After a tough start to his 2019 cross country campaign, he finished as an All-American for the second time in his career.

This year, Parsons has not been bad, but he has not always looked like an All-American candidate. Of course, after his performance this past weekend, it looks like the Cardinal ace could be picking up his third consecutive top-40 finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since the BIG 10 Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since the BIG 10 Championships.

Has not raced since the Silver State Collegiate Challenge.

Has not run a cross country race since the BIG 10 Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since the BIG 10 Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since the Silver State Collegiate Challenge.

Has not raced since the FSU Winter XC Classic.

Masai made his return to the grass at the CAA XC Championships this past weekend, winning the race by almost a minute. The talent is tantalizing with this Hofstra senior, but we have yet to see him put it together at a big meet. Masai is someone who could legitimately rank anywhere from TSR #10 to TSR #50 because his range of outcomes are so wide.

If he puts it all together in Stillwater, then he could be knocking on the door of a top-10 finish.

Has not run a cross country race since the ACC Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since the SEC Championships.

Sprout continues his surprisingly great freshman season with a strong 4th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships, taking down postseason Alek Parsons in the process. And yes, "postseason Alek Parsons" is a better version than "regular season Alek Parsons".

For a young runner in his first NCAA season, this Cardinal rookie has shown impressive consistency this winter, finishing between 4th and 9th in all three of his races against elite fields. With plenty of attention going to Nico Young, it should be noted how special Sprout has been as a freshman and how he could be the first-ever five-time All-American in cross country when his career is all said and done.

We saw another strong result from Lynch at the OSU Winter Open where he finished 4th overall behind Oklahoma State's Isai Rodriguez and teammates Patrick Dever and Scott Beattie. That was a good result for Lynch and the rest of the Golden Hurricanes as they got a chance to preview the NCAA course against a fellow podium contender in Oklahoma State.

Now, admittedly, the senior has not been quite at the same level as Dever this year, but he has still had some strong performances. Lynch may be dropping in our rankings, but don't be mistaken, he's still one of the better distance talents in the NCAA.

After his 2nd place finish at the American Conference XC Championships, Beattie continued to prove that he belongs in a different class this year with his 3rd place run at the OSU Winter Open. Beating teammate Peter Lynch and finishing 12 seconds behind teammate Patrick Dever proves that Beattie is now a top-30 runner in the country.

Adding the senior to Tulsa’s formidable duo will give the Golden Hurricanes plenty of firepower when they return to Stillwater on Monday. He could be the third All-American they need to put this team on the podium.

Has not run a cross country race since the SEC Championships.

Garnica continued his stellar year with a 5th place finish at the West Coast Conference XC Championships. Since the Weber State Cross Country Invitational on November 6, the junior has been a consistent part of BYU’s top-three.

The talent to be an All-American was always there after his 42nd place finish at the National Championships in 2019, but his consistency this year, as well as his massive 13:29 (5k) personal best from a few weeks ago, puts him into the top-tier of NCAA runners. He is clearly a different runner and has the necessary scoring potency that the Cougars need to potentially takedown the Lumberjacks next week.

We did not see Ferro toe the line at the BIG Sky XC Championships which is a big reason why NAU was upset by Southern Utah. That, however, shouldn't take away from the fact that this senior is in the best shape of his life. He recently picked up an impressive 5th place finish at the Battle Born XC Challenge a few weeks ago, beating top talents like Charles Hicks and Alec Hornecker and finishing just behind teammate Luis Grijalva.

Ferro has shown season-long consistency that we've never seen from him before. With him appearing to be completely healthy, it looks like he will play a key role in the Lumberjacks' efforts to bring the NCAA title back to Flagstaff.

It was a good weekend for Mestler at the PAC-12 XC Championships as he had the opportunity to run against an elite field and took full advantage of it.

The Duck veteran finished 3rd overall at his conference meet behind two standout talents in Eduardo Herrera and Charles Hicks (who had a fantastic race, more on him further down). In the process, he beat Cole Sprout and Alek Parsons, two standout talents in their own right.

While Oregon did not field their best lineup, Mestler has proven that he now belongs in the top-20 discussion. We saw him improving last indoor track season when he ran 13:36 for 5000 meters, but we were not sure if that kind of result would translate to the grass.

Spoiler alert: it has.

After a very nice result at the FSU Winter XC Classic, Wildschutt put together another impressive performance to win the FSU Winter XC Last Chance meet. The field was not as strong this time around, but seeing the new Seminole consistently well on the grass and the track in the last few weeks is very promising. We still need to see him put it all together at the national meet, but he is trending in a great direction and his past issues with consistency seem to be remedied.

Has not raced since the Silver State Collegiate Challenge.

The young Cardinal ace has continued his impressive inaugural campaign on the grass at the PAC-12 XC Championships. His runner-up finish to Eduardo Herrera was wildly impressive for a couple of reasons.

First, he finished 2nd in his first-ever PAC-12 meet which is something very few runners in the conference, both past and present, could ever say. Secondly, it was great to see him go with Herrera when the Buffalo ace made a hard move in the middle of the race. Hicks was the only one who tried to go with him and although he wasn’t able to hang with the Colorado star, the he did hang on to a runner-up result, beating Jackson Mestler by 13 seconds.

When you throw in his 6th place finish at the Battle Born XC Challenge, it looks like Stanford has a bright star in the making. Hicks' lack of experience has yet to negatively impact him this season, so we'll be interested to see how he handles the national stage.

Has not raced since the ACC Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since the SEC Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since SEC Championships.

Has not run a cross country race since the BIG 10 Championships.

In his first official race for Gonzaga in over a year, Mwaura showed no signs of rust as he finished runner-up to Conner Mantz at the West Coast Conference XC Championships. Beating Casey Clinger is significant and it puts the Bulldog standout in contention for a top-10 finish at the NCAA XC Championship.

His result is not hugely surprising as we knew how talented Mwaura was, but it does show that he is sharp and ready to roll into Stillwater with big aspirations.

Not too much to say about Dever as he continues to meet the high standards we have set for him. A runner-up finish to Isai Rodriguez at the OSU Winter Open was great preparation for Nationals on the same course. After losing by only one second to the Oklahoma State standout, Dever will look to avenge that loss on Monday.

Overall, Dever has been consistently great. Not just this past season, but in 2019 as well. We have no reason to believe that he can't improve upon his 11th place finish at 2019 NCAA XC Championships.

Rodriguez, after his win over Dever at the OSU Winter Open, has only lost to five individuals in four cross country races that he has run in this year. All five of the names who he lost to are ranked within the top-six of our rankings: Eduardo Herrera, Casey Clinger, Conner Mantz, Luis Grijalva and Wesley Kiptoo.

Otherwise, this Cowboy standout has beaten everyone else he has faced which includes plenty of other runners on this list. Simply put, Rodriguez has run against the best in the country, consistently showing that he can get wins and take down big names.

If the only people he can’t beat are the national title favorites, then he will enter his home course on Monday in pretty good shape.

The veteran from Boulder has always been a consistent All-American candidate, but he has taken a huge leap forward this year. Like Rodriguez, he has only lost to men who are ranked above him. Finishing 3rd at the Battle Born XC Challenge was a great sign, but his win at the PAC-12’s really showed how strong he is this year.

Herrera dominated a good field to take home his first conference title. With his finishing speed, he could be a big problem for the title contenders if he is within striking distance with 800 meters to go.

After a good start to his 2020-21 academic year, Nur has taken another step up, winning his last two races at the Battle Born XC Challenge and the BIG Sky XC Championships. Winning his race in Las Vegas was huge for the Lumberjack star as he beat teammates Nico Young and Luis Grijalva, as well as Colorado standout Eduardo Herrera.

Against a strong field at the BIG Sky Championships, Nur once again looked strong, beating a newly-ranked name in Duncan Hamilton.

Overall, we don't have anything bad to say about Nur. He has experience after toeing the line at the 2019 national meet, has been super consistent, has shown that he's capable of taking down top names and seems to be getting better with each passing week. What's not to like?

After a strong 5k effort on the indoor oval, Clinger continued his strong season back on the grass for BYU as he finished 3rd at the West Coast Conference XC Championships. It was a bit surprising to see him finish behind James Mwaura, but overall, it was another good result.

The redshirt sophomore’s ability to hang in the front pack for a long time and consistently finish near the front of certain races bodes well for him at Stillwater. He has already run this course and has experience of racing at the NCAA Championships from his freshman year.

Was a loss to Mwaura ideal? No, but we don't think it's anything to overreact to.

Young backed up his impressive run at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge with another runner-up finish to teammate Abdi Nur at the Battle Born XC Challenge.

Overall, there really isn’t much to say about the freshman. He has looked incredible in both of his cross country races for the Lumberjacks. He isn’t a favorite to win the NCAA title, but it's not out of the question that he could pull the upset.

It had been a while since we had seen Grijalva race and he truthfully looked a bit rusty compared to what he was doing in the fall. After dominating all of his races at the end of 2020, he came back to finish 4th at the Battle Born XC Challenge behind Nur, Young and Herrera.

Finishing 4th against those guys is not a bad result, but it was surprising that Grijalva did not cross the line with a victory. Still, it's just one race and his body of work from the fall indicates that he is one of the true national title favorites.

The senior did not race at the BIG Sky XC Championships, so hopefully he will be fresh and ready to roll at Stillwater. The last time he ran at the Oklahoma State course, he took down Conner Mantz in a thrilling finish. Could we see the same thing happen on Monday?

Another race and another win for Mantz who is making this winter look far too easy. Beating Mwaura by eight seconds is just another performance in a long line of results which says that Mantz is one of the national title favorites. Honestly, we could have put him at TSR #1 and no one would have had a problem with it.

Everyone will have their eyes on Mantz and our TSR #1 runner at the start of the race on Monday as they will likely dictate the pace.

Has not run a cross country race since the FSU Winter XC Classic.

Caleb Garnica (Utah State)

Aaron Bienenfeld (Cincinnati)

Jack O'Leary (Iona)

Joe Dragon (Syracuse)

Duncan Hamilton (Montana State)

Yacine Guermali (Gonzaga)

Simon Bedard (Butler)

Barry Keane (Butler)

Haftu Strintzos (Villanova)

Morgan Beadlescomb (Michigan State)

Stan Niesten (Portland)

Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)

Johnjack Millar (Iona)

Kashon Harrison (Colorado)

Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)

Cole Hocker (Oregon)

Cooper Teare (Oregon)

Athanas Kioko (Campbell)

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