Admin (Garrett Zatlin)

Mar 8, 20219 min

TSR's 2021 D1 Winter XC Top 25 Teams (Women): Update #2

The below rankings take performances from this past fall into consideration, but they do not aim to penalize teams that did not compete last fall. The same can be said for teams that ran last fall, but are not racing in cross country this winter (until the NCAA Championships).


KEY

(Unranked):

Was not ranked in our last update.
 

(#/#):

First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.


25. Connecticut Huskies (Unranked)

Yes, we know that the Connecticut women struggled at the FSU Winter XC Classic, faltering to 14th behind some teams that, in retrospect, they should have beaten. However, since then, the Huskies have rebounded in a big way. Despite not qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships, we think that their recent results suggest that they are better than a few other programs.

The Huskies actually tied the Georgetown women at the Spider Patriot Classic with a score of 42 points. No, they didn't win on the tie-breaker, but it showed that the Connecticut women were largely on the same level as the Hoyas.

In fact, UConn further validated that suspicion when they finished 2nd overall at the BIG East XC Championships, losing to that same Georgetown team by only two points.

The Connecticut women have proven on multiple occasions that they are not far behind the BIG East champions. If we have Georgetown ranked at TSR #21, then it's only appropriate that the Huskies also earn a spot in our rankings.

24. Portland Pilots (Unranked)

The Portland women have turned out to be a much better team than we originally thought they would be. They took home a clutch win over two respectable programs in San Francisco and Oregon State earlier this season and later finished runner-up at the West Coast Conference XC Championships, taking down San Francisco once more.

Anna Pataki has been super impressive for the Pilots this season as she took home the individual victory at the WCC Championships. Her emergence as a low-stick, as well as the scoring support of Victoria Wier and Stilla Gillman, has given the Pilots enough of a spark to stay competitive with some of the better squads in the country.

They aren't perfect and they don't have the firepower that a few other teams do, but they're a solid program that has built an underrated group of scorers this year.

23. Liberty Flames (Unranked)

What a season for the Liberty Flames. We knew that they had a respectable squad coming into this year, but the improvements that we have seen from this team across the board is super encouraging. A 7th place finish at the FSU Winter XC Classic followed by a dominant ASUN title victory was strong enough, in our mind, to give them a spot to the national meet.

Calli Doan and Adelyn Ackley have both emerged as two true low-sticks for this team, giving the Flames the necessary scoring potency to standout amongst other top-ranked programs. However, it has been the recent additions who have really solidified this lineup.

Furman graduate transfer Grace Dwyer seems to be running better with the Flames than she was with the Paladins while star freshman Marie Hostetler has been able to close out the backend of Liberty's lineup fast enough to the point where they don't need to worry about excessive point scoring.

With other women like Priscillah Kiplagat and Noel Palmer supporting the middle portion of this lineup, it seems fair to say that the Liberty women have a complete lineup that is ideally balanced with firepower and depth. Don't be surprised if they end up making some noise at the NCAA XC Championships.

22. West Virginia Mountaineers (+3 / 25)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

21. Georgetown Hoyas (Unranked)

Really nice win for the Georgetown Hoyas at the BIG East XC Championships. Their tie with Connecticut earlier in the season was initially a bit of a concern, but after seeing the Hoyas take home the BIG East crown by only two points over the Huskies, it was easy to see that Georgetown's win from earlier in the year was better than we gave them credit for.

Not only that, but when you consider how highly we originally thought of teams like Butler and Villanova, it's hard not to be more impressed by Georgetown's win.

The duo of Sami Corman and Maggie Donahue finishing 1-2 was all of the scoring potency that the Georgetown women needed to pull off the win. After those two, we saw a fairly significant gap until Katie Dammer (13th), Baylee Jones (14th) and Mary Hennelly (16th) crossed the line.

That gap may be an issue at a larger meet like the NCAA XC Championships, but Corman and Donahue proved to be a lethal 1-2 punch and that BIG East field they took down is better than some people realize.

20. Indiana Hoosiers (+2 / 22)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

19. Florida State Seminoles (+2 / 21)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

18. Iowa State Cyclones (+1 / 19)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

17. Oklahoma State Cowgirls (+1 / 18)

The Oklahoma State women raced only once since our last rankings update, taking down a Tulsa team in a small dual meet in Stillwater a few weeks ago. Their win was a convincing one as the the Cowgirls took five of the top-six spots. Molly Born secured an encouraging individual win while freshmen Heidi Demeo and Sivan Auberbach quickly closed out the scoring at the backend of their lineup.

In retrospect, that win turned out to be a bit more impressive when you consider that the NCAA selection committee chose to send the Tulsa women to the cross country national meet. Still, in order for Oklahoma State to have success on the national stage, they'll need their rookie duo of Demeo and Auberbach to keep gaps in their lineup to a minimum.

16. Duke Blue Devils (0 / 16)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

15. Washington Huskies (-9 / 6)

This was probably the toughest team that we had to rank. Truthfully, the Washington women haven't been super impressive this year. We kept waiting to see their top scorers toe the line all at once, but many of those women were never seen.

Shona McCulloch, Taylor Chiotti, Melany Smart and Kirstie Rae didn't race on the grass this winter and we only saw Allie Schadler race once at the Battle Born XC Challenge.

This is still a respectable team that is led by Haley Herberg and Naomi Smith, but the depth and firepower that we expected to see out the Huskies this season just hasn't been there. It's understandable why Schadler didn't run at the PAC-12 XC Championships (she's a top seed for the indoor national meet), but where was everyone else?

14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (0 / 14)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

13. Illinois Fighting Illini’ (0 / 13)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

12. Boise State Broncos (+5 / 17)

A 4th place result at the Battle Born XC Challenge, just one point away from a Hanson-less Northern Arizona team and just one point ahead of a McArthur-less Colorado team, was a very nice result for Boise State. They went on to finish 2nd at the Mountain West XC Championships, finishing ahead of a national qualifying squad in Colorado State.

Tyler Beling continues to be a star low-stick for this team after finishing 4th at the Battle Born XC Challenge and then 3rd overall in the underrated Mountain West conference meet. She has been an exciting revelation for the Broncos who needed a spark in a depth-heavy lineup.

We should also highlight Olivia Johnson. She has gone from being a solid middle-lineup contributor to a true secondary scorer who finished 7th at the Battle Born XC Challenge and then 5th at the Mountain West XC Championships.

The rest of Boise State's depth is a little further off from those top two, but compared to last year, their lineup has a little more of a spark.

11. Alabama Crimson Tide (0 / 11)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

10. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0 / 10)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

9. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (+6 / 15)

The Northern Arizona women are a lot better than some people realize. They finished a very impressive 3rd place at the Battle Born XC Challenge a few weeks ago, barely edging Boise State and a McArthur-less Colorado team. However, they earned that finish without Jessa Hanson who has since returned to competition at the BIG Sky XC Championships.

Having Hanson in this lineup is huge. She ran 32:47 for 10,000 meters this past December and recently finished 5th in a top-heavy BIG Sky field. She makes the Lumberjacks a top-ranked team and it is hard to dismiss the complete lineup structure that we have seen out of the NAU women this winter.

8. Michigan Wolverines (+1 / 9)

They only had one opportunity to race this season, but the Michigan women made the most of their chance at the FSU Winter XC Last Chance meet. Admittedly, their competition was largely unexciting and they trounced the field by sweeping the top seven spots and putting nine women in the top-10.

The absences of women like Davre and Forsyth do hurt Michigan's podium chances, but they have a star in Ericka VanderLende, a promising young talent in Katelynne Hart and a slew of accomplished veterans. We still don't really have a great idea of what this team is capable of, but we'll find out next week when they toe the line for the NCAA XC Championships.

7. Michigan State Spartans (0 / 7)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update.

6. Colorado Buffaloes (-1 / 5)

It was a solid runner-up finish for the Colorado women at the PAC-12 XC Championships, but I'm not sure that we learned anything about them that we didn't already know. Yes, they lost to Stanford this past Friday after beating them earlier in the year, but that was more because the Cardinal fixed the issues that they had with their depth.

Overall, Colorado has a ton of depth, super reliable distant talents and a low-stick in Rachel McArthur. Abby Nichols is running well and that's encouraging as we heading into the national meet. Otherwise, this is just a very solid team that, on paper, seems to be just a little outside of our podium projections right now.

5. BYU Cougars (-1 / 4)

An easy win at the West Coast Conference XC Championships was hardly surprising, even without Whittni Orton. However, Orton's ongoing from absence from competition has us concerned. There's still potential that she races at the NCAA XC Championships, but even if she does, but what kind of fitness will she be in?

The Cougars have a ton of depth and maybe even two fringe All-American candidates in Anna Camp and Aubrey Fretheway. However, with so many young members of this lineup lacking experience, and Orton's firepower missing from this lineup, we're not totally convinced that the BYU women are still a podium team (although they are certainly still in that conversation).

4. New Mexico Lobos (+4 / 8)

A convincing victory over the Stanford women at the Battle Born XC Challenge was wildly encouraging. Coming into this season, the New Mexico women had lost a ton of firepower with the departures of Weini Kelati, Ednah Kurgat and Hannah Nuttall. However, they have since reloaded with a ton of new names and graduate transfers.

Adva Cohen looks like the true low-stick that we knew she could be while Gracelyn Larkin and Amelia Mazza-Downie looks like solid secondary scorers. The rest of their top-five is solid and provides plenty of scoring support, but we can't help but wonder whether or not the Lobos have enough firepower to get on the podium.

Cohen looks like an All-American candidate, but she's the only name that we feel confident about when it comes to the women who will finish in the top-40 at the NCAA XC Championships. Other than that, we're not sure who else from this team will be earning All-American honors.

3. Arkansas Razorbacks (0 / 3)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update. We'll be interested to see how they rebound from the NCAA Indoor Championships as we expect many of their top runners to go all-in for the indoor national meet and then try to turnaround and run at the NCAA XC Championships.

2. Stanford Cardinal (0 / 2)

Yes, we know that they lost to New Mexico at the Battle Born XC Challenge, but Stanford's performance at the PAC-12 Championships made up for a lot of their seasonal woes.

Depth has been a major issue for the Cardinal this season and that lack of supporting scorers is a big reason why Colorado and New Mexico were able to take home upset wins over Stanford earlier this season.

However, Jessica Lawson continues to close the gap between her and the top-three women on this team after finishing 9th at the PAC-12 Championships. Not only that, but long-time Stanford veteran Christina Aragon came out of nowhere to place 12th at that conference meet, easily giving the women from Palo Alto the best top-five in the field. In fact, they even had freshman Lucy Jenks finish 17th overall.

Stanford took down the Colorado women with ease (by 20 points) at their conference meet and addressed their biggest weakness in a super impressive way. This leads us to believe that the Stanford women are still in the national title conversation.

1. NC State Wolfpack (0 / 1)

Have not competed on the grass since our last update. However, the recent rebound that we've seen from Kelsey Chmiel and the recent emergence of Katelyn Tuohy is encouraging. Those two don't necessarily guarantee that the Wolfpack will win the national title, but we certainly think the rise of those two women makes the Wolfpack the overall favorites.


ADDED

Liberty Flames

Connecticut Huskies

Portland Pilots

Georgetown Hoyas

KICKED OFF

Utah Utes

Air Force Falcons

Butler Bulldogs

Villanova Wildcats

Just Missed (in no particular order)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Ole Miss Rebels

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

North Carolina Tar Heels

Colorado State Rams

Furman Paladins

Utah State Aggies

Oregon State Beavers

San Francisco Dons

Honorable Mentions (in no particular order)

Providence Friars

Butler Bulldogs

Villanova Wildcats

Texas Longhorns

Kentucky Wildcats

Tennessee Volunteers

Ohio State Buckeyes

Boston College Golden Eagles

California Baptist Lancers

Wisconsin Badgers

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