TSR's 2021 D1 Winter XC Top 25 Teams (Women): Update #1

The below rankings take performances from this past fall into consideration, but they do not aim to penalize teams that did not compete last fall. The same can be said for teams that ran last fall, but are not racing in cross country this winter (until the NCAA Championships).

Was not ranked in our last update.
 

First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.

Joining the rankings this week are the women of West Virginia following their 6th place finish at the FSU Winter XC Classic. The Mountaineers were led by Ceili McCabe’s superb 8th place finish. Big things were expected for McCabe after she finished 4th at the 2020 BIG 12 XC Championships, but we didn't expect her to have this kind of low-stick scoring influence in this kind of race.

Behind McCabe was Hayley Jackson in 27th place, an experienced runner who was close to qualifying for the 2019 national cross country meet. Jackson wasn't available to race this past fall at the BIG 12 XC Championships and her scoring impact was clearly a difference maker in this field.

Moving forward, it will be imperative for McCabe, Jackson and their next three scorers to shorten their top-five time spread which was 1:22, to propel them ahead of other competitors in larger fields such as this.

No other meet is currently on the Mountaineers' schedule, leaving us to wonder if the WVU women have a strong enough case to earn them a bid to the national meet. While they are certainly talented enough to be in Stillwater, Oklahoma come March, it's unclear whether or not the selection committee will agree.

The Wildcats of Villanova have yet to compete in a cross country race during the 2020-2021 academic year. As of right now, the BIG East XC Championships are scheduled for March 5th. With this extended time off from racing, it is hard to gauge where the Wildcats are fitness wise.

Still, they are team capable of earning a bid to the NCAA XC Championships this winter based on the young and promising depth of their roster which is led by Lydia Olivere. This team has an extensive history of success and after last year's postseason efforts, we don't see why they couldn't do replicate those performances once again.

The Butler Bulldogs picked up a nice win this past weekend at the Lipscomb Winter Classic, scoring just 28 points to Loyola’s 80 points. We didn't see Emily Royston toe the line, but Angelina Ellis, Maddie McLain, transfer Kami Hankins, Camille Hines and Margo Hornocker were a solid top-five, all placing within the top-nine and having a slim time spread of just 17 seconds.

Ellis and McLain did their thing up front by finishing 1-2, but it was great to see Oklahoma State transfer Hankins finishing 6th. Even though this was a low-key meet, Hankins looks like she can at least be a key scoring contributor in the future for the Bulldogs. That's fairly notable given that Butler lost Josephine Thestrup from last year's lineup (according to TFRRS).

Royston is expected to eventually join this lineup at the BIG East XC Championships in March where Butler will look to defend their 2019 conference title over Villanova and Georgetown.

Through two runners, the Hoosiers looked fantastic at the BIG 10 XC Championships. Bailey Hertenstein finished a narrow 2nd to Bethany Hasz and looks like one of the best runners in the NCAA. Meanwhile, teammate Sarah Schmitt displayed some solid improvement in her second season, finishing 10th overall.

However, the scoring issues for Indiana came at the backend of their lineup.

IU's third runner finished 28th, an average of 14 places behind the third scorers for the three teams ahead of the Hoosiers in the final standings. Although Indiana did have six runners between 28th place and 40th place, one or two of those women will need to step up and lessen the gap between the top-two and bottom-three of this lineup.

Doing so will take plenty of scoring pressure off of Herntenstein and Schmitt, theoretically putting Indiana in the same tier as Illinois and Minnesota.

Right now, the Hoosiers are looking like a bubble team to qualify for the national meet after finishing 4th in a BIG 10 meet that did not feature Michigan.

Although Florida State played hosts to the FSU Winter XC Classic this past weekend, the Seminoles' top runners were largely absent. Some of their women competed in the "B" race, racing unattached, but none of their big names were present.

Florida State will be hosting the FSU Last Chance Invitational in early March. We should get to see the Seminoles's top lineup compete as they attempt to bolster their case to the NCAA selection committee as to why they deserve a spot in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

The Utes will have some ground to make up in the coming weeks. The team opened up their winter cross country season at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge with a less than stellar performance which saw them finish last the top women's race. Of course, it's important to note that a handful of their best scorers didn't toe the line a week ago, making their result a bit more understandable.

The one positive takeaway from Utah’s race was seeing senior leader Poppy Tank having a solid outing in her return from injury. She finished 8th overall, but will likely improve as she continues to shake off the rust.

Outside of Tank, Utah will need some major performances, specifically at the PAC-12 Championships, if they want to qualify for the national meet. Yes, they didn't run top names like Bella Williams and Cara Woolnough (amongst others) last week, but the selection committee isn't differentiating between "A" teams and "B" teams this year.

The Utes lack of depth looks to be their biggest hurdle heading into their next competition (which is again at UNLV), even if veteran scorers return.

In their first meet of the winter cross country season, Iowa State finished 5th at the FSU Winter XC Classic. The Cyclones were only eight points behind fellow BIG 12 opponent Oklahoma State, although their conference title from this past fall should still make them near locks to qualify for the national meet.

Logue is the clear leader of this team, but she is quickly seeing a young supporting cast step up behind her. Dana Feyen, Brenna Cohoon and Grace Dickel all had strong races at Florida State this past Friday to finish 38th, 44th and 47th.

Those are solid performances that will certainly guarantee teams a top finish in most races as competitive as this one. However, that group of three didn't offer the same scoring potency of the teams that finished ahead of them. Truthfully, Logue was responsible for most of the Cyclones' firepower.

Even so, expectations for this team are a bit different when you consider that numerous women in this lineup are freshmen and sophomores. Youth may not be ideal on championship stages, but youth does give teams plenty of exciting upside and that seems to be the case for Iowa State.

Molly Born made her long-awaited return to the Oklahoma State lineup after not racing this past fall and her presence clearly made a difference in terms of how the Oklahoma State women performed.

Born (15th) teamed up with rising talents Taylor Roe (4th) and Gabby Hentemann (11th) to give the Cowgirls a potent 1-2-3 punch, en route to a 4th place team finish which was nine points ahead of conference foe and 2020 BIG 12 cross country champions, Iowa State.

That was a solid performance, but the depth of this team is still a concern, especially with 2019 All-American Taylor Somers not racing this past Friday.

Somers competed during the abbreviated fall 2020 cross country season, but was never at 100%. When healthy, she is more than capable of racing alongside her top teammates, but we don't know if she'll even be racing this winter. If she does, will she be near the same fitness that Born is in? We'll just have to wait and see...

In a tight battle with Northern Arizona and BYU, the Boise State women finished 2nd overall at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge to open their season. Although the Broncos were expected to lack the firepower that other teams have, their recent introduction of a new South African distance talent and their continuously impressive depth has only improved their stock.

In Nevada, Boise State had their top0five runners all finish within 50 seconds of one another while their top-seven finished within 75 seconds of each other. Tyler Beling is the newest (and much needed) low-stick of this team as she finished only four seconds behind winner Taryn O’Neill. Olivia Johnson also emerged as a solid secondary scorer with a 7th place finish of her own.

The rest of the lineup fell a little bit further back, but finishes of 14-18-19 showed us why Boise State's depth, despite missing one or two key names, is going to be so pivotal for the future success of this team. Those final three scorers were enough to fend off Northern Arizona by just three points.

The biggest uncertainty for Boise State is how they fare at the Mountain West Championships. With extra emphasis on conference performances this season, their performance against New Mexico and Air Force will be critical in determining if they make it to the national meet.

Everyone loves to see a team on the rise and during the 2021-2022 academic year, the team that keeps posting stellar results is Duke. The Blue Devils were solid during the abbreviated fall 2020 cross country season, highlighted by their 4th place finish at the ACC XC Championships.

Duke travelled to the FSU Winter XC Classic and left Tallahassee with a strong 3rd place finish in a deep field. Front-runner Michaela Reinhart placed 20th overall. That was a solid result for her, but the Blue Devils' next four scorers were the real reason why this team ran so well as they all finished in the top-30. The top-five time spread for Duke was a mere 15 seconds.

What's crazier is that we still think that this team left a few points on the board. Reinhart has the potential to finish higher and same can be said of sophomore Samantha Schadler following her 10th place finish from the 2020 ACC XC Championships.

The next meet on Duke’s schedule is the national cross country meet. The Blue Devils should most definitely receive a bid to the Big Dance based on their consistent top showings when racing against some of the nation’s best.

The Lumberjacks finished just behind Boise State at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge, but that was without projected low-stick Jessa Hanson. Based on her 10k performance this past December, Hanson figures to be a key player for NAU this cross country season and her presence likely would have brought NAU within striking distance of an Orton-less BYU team at that meet. That is ultimately why we have the Lumberjacks listed at TSR #15.

Taryn O’Neill looked phenomenal up front and was the individual winner in Nevada. Behind her, NAU packed six runners between 12th place and 24th place.

If Hanson is able to bridge the gap between O’Neill and that pack, then NAU will have a very strong lineup. Additionally, having a group of six behind O’Neill provides an insurance policy in case one or two runners have an "off" day.

That depth should allow NAU to remain fairly consistent throughout the remainder of their season, and the eventual addition of Hanson to this lineup should be enough to get them to the national meet.

Even though they haven’t raced in one of the few cross country meets happening this winter, the Georgia Tech women have been posting respectable times on the indoor oval. The Yellow Jackets should earn themselves a bid to the national cross country meet in March based on the way they raced in the fall.

After a strong 3rd place finish at the BIG 10 XC Championships, Illinois has earned a major jump in our rankings. Originally, they were only narrowly behind Indiana, but the Fighting Illini’ easily toppled the Hoosiers with relative ease and came within four points of upsetting Minnesota as well.

Illinois looks to have a superb front-five this season which has limited gaps and very few weak points. Allison McGrath and Rebecca Craddock are both coming off of solid 2019 cross country seasons, but the trio of Emma Milburn, Ayah Aldadah and Mikaela Lucki all finished right behind them to give Illinois a time spread of only 28 seconds. In fact, their fifth scorer was seven places ahead of Minnesota's.

What will determine Illinois’ ceiling is how well Craddock or McGrath develop as top low-sticks. Illinois has a reliable and experienced group of scorers, but low-stick scoring potency in larger fields will help this team match (and get past) other squads like Minnesota.

Based on their performance at the BIG 10 XC Championships, Illinois is likely going be running at the national meet in March.

The Air Force women drop just a few spots this week in our rankings. In what was likely a preview of the Mountain West XC Championships course, the Falcons travelled to the Silver State Challenge. However, they did not compete in the premier race.

With Maria Mettler, Mikayla Gallagher and potentially a few others not competing, Mahala Norris easily won the race and led her team to a 3rd place result. The Air Force women can certainly be better when they have all of their pieces, but they need to drop in our rankings for the time being.

Some people may argue that Air Force was in the same conversation as Utah when it comes to not running their best scorers at the Silver State XC Challenge and struggling as a result. However, the Falcons intentionally didn't enter the fastest race and their low-stick scorers have a much bigger impact on this team when they do race.

For that reason, we only dropped Air Force a few spots.

It’s been a few months since we’ve seen the Alabama women race in a cross country meet as a team, but one of their runners did race at the FSU Winter XC Classic this past weekend. Esther Gitahi, the 5th place finisher from the SEC XC Championships, recorded a very solid 6th place individual finish amongst a deep field.

With Jami Reed, Mercy Chelangat and Gitahi all emerging as low-sticks this past fall, the need for a more solidified backend became increasingly more apparent. However, the rise of Amaris Tyynismaa, who just ran a massive new 3000 meter personal best of 9:03, theoretically gives the Crimson Tide yet another low-stick.

Depth is still something to keep an eye on, but does that even matter if Alabama now has this many front-running weapons? We still need to see if Tyynismaa can translate that success to the grass, but if she does, then the Crimson Tide will surely improve their stock in our rankings.

After finishing as the runner-up team at the BIG 10 XC Championships, Minnesota moved up just one spot in our rankings. Bethany Hasz is looking like a top-10 runner in the NCAA after she gapped Bailey Hertenstein to take the individual win at the conference meet. Meanwhile, Abby Kohut-Jackson and Jaycie Thomsen stepped up in a big way to finish 8th and 17th respectively, keeping Minnesota in contention with Michigan State through three runners.

What hurt Minnesota was that their runners came up short of their 2019 form. Both Anastasia Korzenowski and Megan Hasz were substantially farther back than they were in 2019 (Hasz was redshirted in the fall of 2019, but did race unattached in a few meets).

Could the Gophers have beat Michigan State if those two were at their best? It's tough to say, but the scores would have been much closer if this Minnesota team had everyone run their best on the same day (which is much easier said than done).

The Gophers should still make the national meet as their runner-up showing (without Michigan) was a strong performance. However, they will need Korzenowski and Hasz to regain some of their previous form if they hope to challenge their fellow BIG 10 opponents later in the season.

One has to feel for the Michigan Wolverines. Due to COVID-19, the Michigan Athletic Department paused all athletic competitions for 14 days which ultimately kept them from competing at the BIG 10 XC Championships.

Ericka VanderLende and Katelynne Hart were expected to be top individual finishers amongst their conference foes after a successful start to their indoor track season. At TSR, we were also looking forward to the potential returns of Camille Davre and Anne Forsyth.

Since this delay in competition, the BIG 10 has permitted another opportunity for Michigan to prove themselves to the NCAA selection committee in an effort to earn a bid to the Big Dance. The Wolverines are expected to compete at the FSU Last Chance Invitational in early March, roughly a week and a half prior to the NCAA Championships.

Originally, it was assumed that the Lady Lobos would race at the Silver State Challenge against the likes of BYU and NAU. However, there was a change of plans. Instead, the New Mexico women will debut at the USATF Nevada Desert Classic in Las Vegas on February 19th before competing at the Mountain West XC Championships on the same course in March.

Adva Cohen and Anna Kostarellis are expected to lead the Lobos this fall after departures of top low-sticks Weini Kelati and Hannah Nuttall. Hannah Miller is also a key name to watch as she was a three-time national qualifier in cross country at SMU prior to joining the Lobos.

While it may be a stretch, it feels realistic that Cohen, Kostarellis and Miller could all put themselves in the All-American conversation. It's been a while since we've seen this group race, but the potential of this New Mexico squad is a big reason why we have them ranked at TSR #8.

The Spartans came away with a convincing win at the BIG 10 XC Championships thanks to strong performances from their entire team, but specifically from Makayla Perez and Katie Osika. That duo finished as the fourth and fifth runners for the Spartans, placing 14th and 16th overall and finishing ahead of the fourth scorers for both Minnesota and Illinois.

Michigan State was led by Jenna Magness who we figured would be their top runner this fall. Magness was 3rd overall, but right behind her was India Johnson (4th) who had one of her best collegiate performances to date. Lynsie Gram finished 11th and was the third runner for the Spartans.

We knew Michigan State would be strong in 2021, but the emergence of Perez and Osika has really elevated them to another level. Through five runners, the Spartans look exceptional, and their sixth runner, Casey Mossholder, wasn't dramatically far behind, posting a strong 27th place finish. Swapping her for Osika or Perez still would have been enough to maintain a win for Michigan State.

Overall, this team looks like they are capable of making the podium like our initial rankings suggested back in the summer of 2020.

The women of Washington travelled to Las Vegas for the Silver State XC Challenge last week and earned a 4th place team finish. Of course, the Huskies are a much better team than what we saw last week as many of their top women didn’t compete.

Melany Smart, Allie Schadler, Shona McCulloch, recent Oregon transfer Taylor Chiotti and a few others didn’t toe the line last Monday. However, they will probably enter their varsity seven at the Battle Born Collegiate Challenge in mid-February or at the PAC-12 Championships in early March.

At the Silver State XC Challenge, Haley Herberg and Naomi Smith placed 5th and 6th, respectively. This was a great performance for Smith given that she is only a freshman and adds yet another potential scoring piece to this Washington roster.

Colorado taking down Stanford at the FSU Winter XC Classic is the upset of the season thus far, and it could be the upset of the year when everything is said and done.

After periods of inconsistency throughout her career, Rachel McArthur showed us why she is regarded as one of the NCAA's best as she finished 5th overall in one of the best non-championship fields she has ever raced in.

Michigan graduate transfer Micaela DeGenero also had the best cross country race of her career by placing 11th overall, only 18 seconds behind McArthur. In her (official) Colorado debut, freshman Emily Covert finished 17th with teammate Elizabeth Constien was right behind her in 18th. Rounding out the scorers was Ohio State graduate transfer Abby Nichols who finished 24th.

Despite the outstanding performance, we are now left with even more questions for this Colorado team.

Can McArthur consistently be the low-stick that we saw on Friday? Can DeGenero replicate the best cross country performance of her career? What should we expect from Covert with one official cross country race under her belt? Given that Nichols was almost an All-American in 2019, should we expect her to be better as the season progresses?

And yes, it's understandable why some people may be upset that Stanford is still ranked ahead of them (and we explain why we still have them ranked higher in the below section). Regardless, Colorado had an outstanding race and completely altered our perception of what they could end up doing in the postseason.

It’s hard to be certain as to what this team will do in the future, but on their best day, they are certainly in the conversation for the podium...and maybe more.

BYU stays ranked at TSR #4 after winning the Silver State Collegiate Challenge over fellow ranked opponents. Despite not running Orton, Lasswell or Musselman, the Cougars still came away with a convincing victory behind strong performances from Anna Camp and Aubrey Frentheway.

Known more for her middle distance ability, Camp finished only a second behind race winner Taryn O’Neill to place 2nd overall. Aubrey Frentheway also had a strong race by finishing 4th overall, just eight seconds back of Camp.

A young trio of Lexy Halladay (10th), Haley Johnston (13th) and Anna Martin (17th) rounded out the scoring for BYU. When Orton, Lasswell and Musselman return to this lineup, BYU looks like the most well-balanced team in the country. It is hard to see a future where they don't get on the podium.

The Razorbacks remain at our TSR #3 spot this week. Arkansas doesn’t need to compete in a regular season cross country race this winter as they have already made a very convincing case that they deserve to qualify for the national meet. Not only that, but the performances that we have seen from this team on the track have also been wildly encouraging.

It will be interesting to see what Arkansas does as we get closer to the cross country national meet and indoor national meet. The Razorbacks have the potential to win both, but how will coach Lance Harter approach this dilemma?

Stanford drops out of the top spot after a disappointing result at the FSU Winter XC Classic where they finished runner-up to Colorado. Although the Cardinal were only five points behind the Buffaloes, this was expected to be a runaway victory for Stanford.

On the positive side of things, Ella Donaghu was the individual winner and it looks like she hasn’t missed a stride since 2019. Freshman Zofia Dudek also had a huge debut to finish 3rd overall and instantly became a contender for a top-20 finish at the NCAA Championships. And how about Julia Heymach? She finished 10th overall in Friday's race and looks to have translated her 2020 track success to the cross country course.

However, on the other side of this lineup, a lot went wrong for Stanford.

Jessica Lawson was ranked at TSR #3 heading into this winter season, but only finished 32nd on Friday. Northwestern graduate transfer and previous All-American Aubrey Roberts didn't have a great debut and was all the way back in 63rd. And Jordan Oakes? She placed 18th overall…in the "B" race.

Yes, even with all of that, Stanford only narrowly lost to Colorado.

If Lawson had run to even half of her potential, then Stanford wins. If Roberts emerges as the fourth scorer that we know she is capable of being, then Stanford wins. If Jordan Oakes was in the same form that she was in back in 2019 (and therefore was part of this varsity lineup), then Stanford probably wins.

We won't completely send Stanford plummeting down our rankings after one season opener, but we are hoping to see improvements that would suggest that they are still in the national title conversation.

They haven’t toed the line for a cross country race since October’s ACC XC Championships, but the NC State Wolfpack just jumped up one spot in our rankings. These ladies were solid during the abbreviated fall 2020 cross country season and have fared relatively well on the indoor oval so far this winter.

Dominique Clairmonte hasn’t competed since the ACC XC Championships, which isn’t a major point of concern. However, we still haven’t seen Katelyn Tuohy or Marlee Starliper race, leaving us wondering when (or if) we'll see these two young stars make the collegiate debuts.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Wisconsin Badgers

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Oregon Ducks

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