TSR Collaboration
Jan 18, 202111 min
Updated: Jan 19, 2021
The Stride Report has opted to exclude the Ivy League from these rankings as the conference is not expected to compete this winter. The below rankings take performances from this past fall into consideration, but they do not aim to penalize teams that did not compete.
Not much to talk about here. Indiana moves back a couple of spots from their original summer ranking (TSR #21) to simply make room for teams that did compete this past fall.
This was a team that we had our eye on during the summer months as we believed that they were going to be much better than some people realized.
They only had one notable result from this past fall, but it was a certainly a good one. They took on a BYU team that didn't have Mantz or Shumway and came within a point of taking home the overall win.
There is still so much uncertainty with this team and we need to see if Christian Allen can replicate his incredible performance from the 2019 NCAA XC Championships on a consistent basis. If he can, then that helps this team's stock.
Otherwise, they'll rely on a supporting cast that produced some strong results in their battle with BYU. There are a lot of talented scorers on this team who are waiting for their turn to shine.
One of the breakout teams of the altered 2020 cross country season was the men of Charlotte. A promising 2nd place finish at the Louisville Classic was a solid result, but the biggest story of that day was Paul Arredondo taking down the elite scoring trio from Ole Miss. The Rebels front-runners of Suliman, Garcia Romo and Bullock have looked like some of the best runners in the country, but the senior from Charlotte was still able to take home the win.
Having a top low-stick like Arredondo is huge, but the 49ers might have a second low-stick in Nickolas Scudder. The sophomore did not run at Louisville, but won the C-USA cross country title this past fall, beating Arredondo by 13 seconds. Although it was only one race, it does show that Charlotte has two potential All-Americans on their roster.
With solid supporting pieces like Finn McBride, Michael Durkin, Brian Picone and Jacob Gallant surrounding their dynamic duo, and a few other names who we didn't see this past fall, the 49ers look like a team that deserve a spot to the NCAA Championships this winter.
Not much to talk about here. Gonzaga moves back a couple of spots from their original summer ranking (TSR #20) to simply make room for teams that did compete this past fall.
*Ranking is dependent on whether or not recent transfers Ahmed Muhumed and Adriaan Wildschutt are able to compete for the Seminoles this winter.
Alright, here's the deal. The Florida State Seminoles weren't amazing this past fall. They were fairly inconsistent, had a few inexperienced youngsters who were responsible for important scoring spots and they didn't have a ton of reliable depth.
However, the recent announcement that Adriaan Wildschutt and Ahmed Muhumed will be joining the Florida State men this winter completely changes this team dynamic. Those two, in conjunction with low-stick runner Paul Stafford, dramatically boosts the status of this team.
Not only that, but the 'Noles may get back a top talent in Silas Griffith -- who has run 14:07 for 5000 meters -- back in their varsity lineup. If all of that happens, then the Florida State men could emerge as a dramatically different team than we saw this past fall.
Not much to talk about here. Purdue moves back a few spots from their original summer ranking (TSR #16) to simply make room for teams that did compete this past fall.
Not much to talk about here. Washington moves back a few spots from their original summer ranking (TSR #15) to simply make room for teams that did compete this past fall.
Yes, we know we ranked Virginia behind Charlotte in our 2020 fall rankings, but this is a team that took down a fully-stacked NC State team during the regular season and showed plenty of promise from their veteran runners at the ACC Championships.
It's tough to fault Virginia's younger and more inexperienced scorers for not having their best races in a super deep conference meet. That's a big race to throw a bunch of rookies into. That needs to be considered when making these rankings.
Not only that, but we also need to factor in the potential return of Peter Morris and Colton Bogucki. Those two, specifically Morris, could give this team a notable boost in the UVA's scoring. That's why we are opting to give Virginia our TSR #18 spot in these rankings.
We actually gave the Badgers a bit of a boost in our rankings despite them not racing this past fall and losing their top distance recruit (Caleb Brown) to the transfer portal. At the Sound Running Track Meet in December, Wisconsin fielded a handful of men who held their own and ran incredibly well.
Jackson Sharp won his 5k heat with a time of 13:44 while teammate Jack Meijer also ran a time of 13:44 in the next-fastest heat. We also got to see Shuaib Aljabaly throw down a time of 29:06 in the men's 10,000 meters.
With Evan Bishop looking strong and Bob Liking recently posting a respectable 3k time (8:15) this past weekend, it looks like the scoring options are plentiful for the Wisconsin men moving forward.
What an incredible 2020 cross country season for Wake Forest. Carter Coughlin and Jack Tiernan were excellent front-runners, the team's supporting cast was far better than we expected them to be and their lineup as a whole was still missing a few key contributors (including Zach Facioni).
Even after a strong 3rd place finish at the ACC Championships, this is one of the few teams in the NCAA that has nowhere to go but up. Jack Tiernan didn't even have a great race at the ACC Championships and they still earned a top finish at that meet.
Not much to talk about here. Stanford moves back a few spots from their original summer ranking (TSR #12) to simply make room for teams that did compete this past fall.
Not much to talk about here. Portland moves back a few spots from their original summer ranking (TSR #11) to simply make room for teams that did compete this past fall.
Two of the biggest breakout stars from this past fall reside in Oxford, Mississippi. Cole Bullock and Mario Garcia Romo went from talented scorers for the Rebels to elite front-runners for a team with top-10 aspirations. Those two, along with consistent low-stick Waleed Suliman, give Ole Miss one of the most potent scoring trios in the country.
After sweeping the top-three spots at the SEC XC Championships and still losing to Arkansas, it is clear that the Rebels have the potential to be one of the best teams in the country, but they need a few runners to step up.
Their fourth and fifth runners struggled this past fall, but they have a talented roster full of men who could improve in the winter. Cade Bethmann had a tough 2020 season, but was impressive in 2019. We also can't ignore Ben Savino, Michael Coccia or Dalton Hengst who could all fill one of the last scoring spots if they are at the top of their game.
Ole Miss has the firepower up front to exceed this ranking, but they will need better production from their other scorers to earn a top finish at the NCAA Championships.
The NC State men continued to show that they are the most confusing team in the entire NCAA for the third straight cross country season. No program has seen the highs and lows that the Wolfpack men have for the past few years.
The NC State men were heavily favored to beat Virginia this past fall, but they were surprisingly upset by the Cavaliers despite finishing 2-3-4 in the overall results. Of course, as fate would have it, they turned things around and posted a very strong 2nd place finish at the ACC Championships, just 14 points away from a talented Notre Dame team.
NC State's veterans stepped up and gave them the solid results that we knew they were capable of during that ACC Championship meet, leading the Wolfpack to a finish that beat out Wake Forest and Virginia.
There are still significant concerns when it comes to consistency, but they capped off last fall with a strong showing and we have to give them credit for what they accomplished.
This roster hasn't exactly changed since we last talked about them, but the recent rise of sophomore Tom Brady, who just ran 7:58 for 3000 meters this past weekend, has to be incredibly exciting for Michigan. They may have found a reliable middle-lineup scorer who can fill in a scoring gap that was left behind by Isaac Harding.
We don't know exactly what this varsity cross country lineup will look like, but we do know that is has a great chance of being very competitive. Don't sleep on Oli Raimond or Jacob Lee, either.
The Iona men didn't compete this past fall, but we think we undervalued Jack O'Leary in our initial analysis (7:53/13:44) and we weren't expecting Ed Goddard to have the breakout year that he did in Australia, running 28:48 (10k) and 62:16 (half-marathon).
When you pair those two with top All-American candidates in Johnjack Millar and Ehab El-Sandali, then you're looking at a scary good Iona squad. We still need to see how this team will actually perform on the grass, but are the Gaels yet another team that could compete for a podium spot? It's certainly not out of the question...
And yes, we know that we bumped them back one spot from their original summer ranking, but that's mainly because Oklahoma State was so darn good this past fall and they needed to move up to a better ranking.
The Buffaloes are a tricky team to figure out. They ventured to the Oklahoma State Invitational this past fall to race as an unattached team. However, we didn't see Kashon Harrison or Stephen Jones toe the line.
As for everyone else who ran, Eduardo Herrera had what was arguably the best race of his career with a 4th place finish, but the rest of his teammates truthfully didn't wow us in any major way. Hornecker and Aschbrenner barely cracked the top-25 in this race while Appleton and Powell were only a few spots behind.
Now, admittedly, it's a bit unfair to judge a team that didn't have two of their top five runners and had to travel across the country during a pandemic to race. Still, we figured that the Buffaloes would have been able to beat at least Southern Utah had they been counted in the team scoring (they did not beat Southern Utah).
Gone is Edwin Kurgat and in is Wesley Kiptoo, a recent JUCO transfer who had a dominant first season for the Cyclones last fall and is one of the favorites to win the individual national title.
Iowa State barely lost to Oklahoma State on a tie-breaker at the 2020 BIG 12 Championships thanks to big performances from Festus Lagat and Kiptoo. The Cyclones strength, however, is in their depth behind their low-sticks. Chad Johnson, Mitchell Day, Thomas Pollard and Milo Greder give this team four great options to fill out the backend of their scoring lineup.
We also need to note that Ezekiel Kibichii may be eligible to compete this fall. His availability for this winter is still unclear, but if he does return, then Iowa State would be adding a key low-stick to their lineup and someone who could put the Cyclones back on the podium come March.
Determining the ranking of teams from TSR #3 to TSR #7 was difficult because you could make a case for almost any of these programs to be ranked at the third spot. The Cowboys land at TSR #7, but after their spectacular fall season, they have comfortably put themselves into the podium conversation.
Isai Rodriguez has returned to his elite 2018 form and looks like a potent front-runner. The real surprise, however, was seeing Alex Maier, Ryan Schoppe and Victor Shitsama all become high-level contributors.
Ryan Smeeton has been about what we expected and was a consistent scorer for Oklahoma State this fall, but the emergence of the Maier/Schoppe/Shitsama trio has raised the team’s ceiling significantly.
Depth is admittedly still a concern for this team who relied on the same five scorers at all three of their meets last fall. However, when your top five is running as well as the Cowboys, you don’t necessarily need much depth.
Oklahoma State won’t need to run many cross country races as they have likely punched their ticket to the NCAA Championships with their tie-breaking win at the BIG 12 XC Championships. Plus, with Nationals on their home course, they will be more prepared than any other team in the country.
One of the big questions that we had with Oregon was whether or not Cole Hocker was going to be the All-American runner that we think he can be. Well, sure enough, that seems to be the case as the sophomore ran 7:45 for 3000 meters in a time trial and later 13:32 for 5000 meters.
Charlie Hunter looks strong as well and Cooper Teare seems to be firmly in the conversation for a national title. Throw in Jackson Mestler and a slew of top talents, and Oregon's stock has only improved since this summer.
Aaron Bienenfeld, however, won't be joining the team until next fall.
Despite the Fighting Irish winning the ACC title this past fall, I'm not sure there's a whole lot to talk about with them. Nuguse is a stud, Jacobs is one of the better second scorers in the country, Kilrea seems to be back in his groove, Methner looks promising and Renfree looks solid as well.
Notre Dame took home the conference title over NC State by 14 points at the ACC Championships and did so in a fashion that was largely unsurprising. However, seeing all of their best talents come together and all run well on the same day was very encouraging.
Although the Razorbacks will not have their latest transfer addition, Ehab El-Sandali, available for this winter, they still have a podium-worthy lineup. Emmanuel Cheboson, in his first season with his new team, was a surprisingly consistent scorer for Arkansas while Amon Kemboi produced low-stick worthy results.
Even so, the greatest strength of this team was its depth. New additions like Jacob McLeod, Luke Meade and Andrew Kibet paired well with Gilbert Boit and Matt Young to give the Razorbacks a lineup that is stacked through seven runners.
The SEC champions will likely focus on the indoor circuit leading up to the NCAA XC Championships, but they should still be seen as a top threat to finish within the top-three on the grass.
There is certainly an argument that Arkansas deserves to be ahead of Tulsa, but we're already giving the Razorbacks a boost from their original summer ranking (TSR #6) and we have yet to see anything from the Golden Hurricanes that would suggest that they need to drop.
For now, they'll stay at TSR #3.
With two top-tier low-sticks and at least one All-American candidate, the Cougars look ready to defend their NCAA title from 2019.
Conner Mantz and Casey Clinger looked strong this past fall, losing only to Luis Grijalva at the Oklahoma State Invitational. Meanwhile, Clayson Shumway looks like he has regained top form and will return to the BYU cross country team this winter.
Historically, BYU is a team that has boasted plenty of depth, so they should be able to fill in the last few scoring spots of their lineup. Whether that responsibility goes to someone like Brandon Garnica, Matt Owens or Aidan Troutner (who just ran 8:10 for 3000 meters at altitude) is still unclear. Even so, we have seen Coach Eyestone develop strong backend scorers in the past.
BYU may not have the established depth of NAU, but they do have a top trio that might be better than the Lumberjacks. The men from Provo, Utah don't enter the season as the favorites to win their second NCAA title, but after their performance at the 2019 National Championships, no one would be surprised to see them at the top of the podium once again.
They didn't have a handful of their best runners at the Oklahoma State Invitational and still won fairly easily despite some of their scorers not having their best days. There's no reason to think that any team is better than the Lumberjacks right now.
Are they unbeatable? No.
But they are still the overwhelming national title favorite? Yes.
Furman Paladins
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Boise State Broncos
Villanova Wildcats
Georgetown Hoyas
Duke Blue Devils
Syracuse Orange
Butler Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Virginia Tech
UMass Lowell
Texas Longhorns
UCLA Bruins
North Carolina Tar Heels
Georgia Bulldogs
Tennessee Volunteers
- Had the Ivy League been able to compete this winter, the Princeton men would have made it into our rankings and the Penn men would have been listed as a Just Missed.
- It is not yet clear whether or not new transfers from this past offseason will be eligible to compete during this winter offseason. These rankings assume that they will.