TSR Mailbag: Part 6

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Thanks to everyone who has submitted questions! Keep them coming...

"Why did Stanford wait to race Sean McGorty? What does this mean for the MPSF Championships?" - Cardinal Inquiry

Stanford is notorious for leaving fans guessing. Rarely has Stanford ever run a full-lineup prior to Nationals (in cross country) and they usually leave a key runner out until the final few meets of the track season.

Why does Stanford do this? Honestly, I'm unsure.

McGorty has had a history with injuries over the past year which could have played a role in his delayed start. At the same time, Coach Milt also seems to be a guy who is cautious about over-racing.

Some people like to argue in favor of the surprise factor. What edge that may give a team is still unclear to me, but plenty of programs like to lay low until they absolutely have to run fast.

So what does this mean for McGorty now? If I had to guess, I'm assuming that he'll be running the 3000 at the MPSF Championships this weekend. With the DMR most likely on his schedule for Nationals, running the mile would force McGorty to double within a 3-hour time frame and later come back for the finals the next day. However, if he were to qualify in the 3000, he would be completely fresh for the DMR and have an entire day to recover for Day 2.

"Who could potentially pull off the upset win in each event and why? - DB4

For clarification, we'll just assume that the favorites in each event are Michael Saruni (800), Kerr (Mile), Knight (3000 & 5000), and Stanford (DMR). They are all NCAA #1's at the moment with the exception of Knight in the 5000...

Bryce Hoppel (Kansas)

- Proven ability to double which bodes well for getting through both the prelims and finals

- Has shown that he can beat top-tier veterans (i.e. Iowa State Classic)

- Has yet to lose a single race this season (in an open event)

- Strong finish/kick

Isaiah Harris (Penn State)

- Experienced

- The only one who has the personal bests to match Saruni

- Familiar with the competition

Dylan Capwell (Monmouth)

- Showing signs of 2015 fitness when he finished runner-up at NCAA's

- Experienced: Has raced two eras of 800 runners

- Speed oriented athlete which could be favorable in a sit-and-kick type race

Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah)

- Has one of the best kicks in the NCAA

- Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft

- Solid range from the 800 to 5k with the ability to adapt to different racing styles

Sam Prakel (Oregon)

- Has consistently run some of the best mile performance in the United States (among all levels) over the past year

- Veteran who has raced against top competition throughout his career

- Only Josh Kerr and Justyn Knight have a run mile with no conversion faster than Prakel has this season

- Will most likely have teammates racing with him (Brown & Stanovsek) which can help with the execution of race strategies

Grant Fisher (Stanford)

- Has upset Knight before

- Known for his kick

- Capable of adjusting to different racing styles

- Has experience on the big stage

Andy Trouard (Northern Arizona)

- Has not yet lost to a single collegiate so far this season

- Proven capability of pulling off an upset (i.e. defeating Fisher at ISU Classic)

- Ability to match kick of competitors

- Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft

- MIGHT opt out of mile to be completely fresh for the 3000 knowing that Fisher and Knight will both be doubling from Day 1.

Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin)

- Gaining momentum as the season goes on...has improved personal best in this event from 7:54 to 7:51

- Still relatively new to this event which leaves a lot of upside

- Split 3:54 in DMR last weekend...good indication of speed

Mike Tate (Southern Utah)

- Capable of running from the front which can eliminate competitors who like to rely on a kick

- Has the best time in the nation this season

- Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft

Dillon Maggard (Utah State)

- Has raced Knight before, understands his racing style

- Trains & races at altitude which could help since Albuquerque, New Mexico takes place at 5300 ft

- Capable of sticking with a fast pace which is a very real possibility with Mike Tate in this field

- Experienced...has run on the national stage multiple times

- Solid range

Jack Bruce (Arkansas)

- Beat Knight at NCAA Outdoor 5k last year

- Has exhibited solid range and the ability to perform in the mid-distances

- Has one of the more underrated kicks in the NCAA

- Very experienced

Indiana Hoosiers

- Kyle Mau upset Fisher and Stanford earlier this season (admittedly, without Sean McGorty)

- Plenty of depth and options to put at the 1200 leg, although Teddy Browning appears to running incredibly well there

- May have the best 800 leg in the field, although Virginia Tech may argue against that

Wisconsin Badgers

- Experienced, veteran status through most legs

- After splitting 3:54, Hoare has proven that he can hang with any anchor in the field

- Hardy, Brown, and Hoare have not yet had a "poor" race this season

Virginia Tech Hokies

- One of the best all-around relays in the nation

- Veteran status throughout all four legs

- Have been on this stage before

Ole Miss Rebels

- Defending their title

- Have been here before, very experienced

- Return a similar relay from last year minus Craig Engels

- Domanic ran 3:54 earlier this summer, could replicate that performance

Who are your projected All-Americans? - RollCats

In due time my friend, in due time...

 My roommate and I were debating so we'll leave it to you to figure out...among the distance runners, which ones are considered "elite"? Name all if you can. - Joe Flacco Is Not Elite

Let's just be clear that not only is Joe Flacco not elite, but neither is Andy Dalton. That may be my Pittsburgh bias coming out, but I digress...

The "elite" discussion is a very sensitive topic in most sports. In sports like football and basketball, there are so many subjective factors to analyze that it makes the discussion practically impossible to conclude.

Distance running is a little more of an exact science, but there are still a variety of different factors that we need to compare. Wins, times, All-Americans honors, NCAA titles, number of losses, ability to double, racing tactics, accomplishments at certain times in eligibility, consistency, and so much more are all considered when we talk about any specific type of ranking or classification for distance runners.

Before we can answer this, I need to know if we're talking about just this season or the overall careers of active runners in the NCAA. That's an important distinction. For the sake of this conversation, I think we'll talk about the overall careers rather than just this season.

When I use the word "elite", I'm relatively conservative with who I give it to. The special thing about being "elite" is that there are only a handful of others in that same club as you.

In my mind, when we look at what these guys have done so far in their careers, the clear-cut favorites to be considered "elite" are...

- Justyn Knight (Syracuse)

- Josh Kerr (New Mexico)

- Michael Saruni (UTEP)

- Isaiah Harris (Penn State)

- Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)

- Grant Fisher (Stanford)

- Sean McGorty (Stanford)

- Matthew Baxter (Northern Arizona)

- Tyler Day (Northern Arizona)

A handful of these guys have titles, others have incredible times, and some have both. For the most part, I think this is a pretty reasonable list.

After those nine is where things open up to debate.

Here are guys that I feel may be a tier off from entering that "elite" level for whatever reason that may be.

- Andy Trouard (Northern Arizona)

- Rory Linkletter (BYU)

- Colby Gilbert (Washington)

- Ben Saarel (Colorado)

- Dillon Maggard (Utah State)

and maybe a few others...