TSR Mailbag: Christmas Eve Questions

Content has been thin as of late from a collegiate point of view, but that's what happens when it's the holidays and there's still a global pandemic.

Gosh, that's a sentence I never thought that I would type out.

We sent out a TSR Mailbag request yesterday on our Instagram page and received a handful of questions which we'll be answering below. So with that, let's dive right in...

For those unfamiliar with Cronin, he's a D2 distance talent who attends Tusculum University. He just ran 14:19 for 5000 meters at the "Five and Dime Athletics Meeting" track meet in South Carolina earlier this month.

This was a very strong and very promising performance for the South Atlantic Conference runner. It shows that he has taken a major step in the right direction and that he could be competitive with the men from Queens whenever they next toe the line.

Now, admittedly, there is a difference between being "nationally competitive" and being a "factor". For perspective, 14:19 would have ranked Cronin around NCAA #25 (D2) for the 5000 meters during the 2020 indoor track season and around NCAA #23 (D2) during the 2019 outdoor track season.

Does a time of 14:19 make me think that Cronin can be a D2 All-American at this very moment? No, not quite. Still, this is a significant improvement and it bodes well for his future. He was making encouraging progress during the 2020 indoor track season and it looks like he has since carried that momentum with him during this crazy year.

Our D3 crew is busy with a few things at the moment, so I'll be giving this my best shot (go easy on me). I'll also preface this by saying that a lot of these predictions will heavily depend on which athletes comes back to use their remaining eligibility.

So, for the purposes of this article, let's just assume that everyone who was expected to race this past fall will actually come back in 2021.

On the men's side, it's hard to dismiss Pomona-Pitzer. Yes, they're the national champions, but they were also set to return six of their top seven runners from that title-winning lineup. They boast some of the better firepower in D3 and have some fairly strong depth as well. Their development and progression throughout the fall of 2019 was also impressive and it leads me to believe that they could replicate that development in 2021.

On paper, they're the title favorites.

However, I don't think the Sagehens are unbeatable. Johns Hopkins has a lineup structure that can match a lot of Pomona-Pitzer's performances. We also can't forget about Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, a team that actually beat Pomona-Pitzer at their conference meet last year on a tie-breaker.

The CMS men weren't expected to falter all that much (if at all) during the 2020 cross country season. They have consistently been one of Pomona-Pitzer's biggest challengers and I don't see why that wouldn't continue to happen.

I'll take the Pomona-Pitzer men narrowly defending their title over both Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (2nd) and John Hopkins (3rd) as all three teams will be within 15 points of each other.

On the women's side, I think it's obvious that Washington U. and Johns Hopkins are the two clear favorites. Both teams lose a couple of key veterans, but so do a lot of the other top-ranked programs in the country.

Both of these teams are historically very deep and it's rare to see either of them not in the national picture. They've been the two most dominant women's programs in Division Three for years now.

Personally, choosing which of these two teams will win the national title in the fall of 2021 feels a bit like a toss up. I don't have a ton of certainty as to what their lineups will look like in terms of scoring structure. However, I think Johns Hopkins benefits more than some people realize by returning both Ariel Keklak and Therese Olshanski.

I'll take John Hopkins to win it all over Washington U.

However, my 3rd place team is going to be Tufts. I'm a big fan of the Jumbos and I love what they did in 2019. They had a very young squad last year and they should only get better with time. Yes, they lost Sabrina Gornisiewicz (which is tough hit), but I feel like Tufts is going to really surprise some people whenever they next toe the line for a regular cross country season.

Based on the language used by the Ivy League when they made their announcement, as well as the conversations that I have had with other sources, it seems like the Ivy League won't be competing at all this winter.

That's a pretty significant development when you consider that the Harvard men, Harvard women, Cornell women and Columbia women all qualified for the NCAA Championships last year. Not only that, but the Princeton men had a legitimate chance to qualify for the national meet last year and would have been just as good in 2021.

However, outside of the Ivy League, I'm not sure we'll be seeing any other big-time conferences or teams drop out. The Patriot League, which typically follows whatever decision the Ivy League makes, is moving forward with their winter cross country season. That is likely a significant indicator that (most) conferences are willing to compete during the upcoming winter cross country season.

There's certainly no guarantee that a winter cross country season will happen for some/most teams and conferences. However, at this very moment, I'm fairly optimistic that it will.

Before I give you my top-five, here is my self-imposed ranking criteria that you should read so that you don't get mad and yell at me (someone will still get mad and yell at me).

1. Josh Kerr (New Mexico)

2. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)

3. Yared Nuguse (Notre Dame)

4. Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin)

5. Izaic Yorks (Washington)

1. Elinor Purrier (New Hampshire)

2. Dani Jones (Colorado)

3. Kaela Edwards (Oklahoma State)

4. Karissa Schweizer (Missouri)

5. Karisa Nelson (Samford)

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)

2. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)

3. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)

4. Sean McGorty (Stanford)

5. Tyler Day (Northern Arizona)

1. Karissa Schweizer (Missouri)

2. Dani Jones (Colorado)

3. Molly Seidel (Notre Dame)

4. Dominique Scott (Arkansas)

5. Weini Kelati (New Mexico)

Are these rankings perfect? No. I'm sure there are plenty of arguments for other athletes. Still, if we're balancing times, national titles and a few other subjective aspects of racing, then I feel like this is pretty close to what the past five years has looked like.

Coming soon...very soon.

The way I understood this question was, "Will international collegiate athletes get an extra year of eligibility since they may not be able to return to the United States?"

The answer to this question largely hinges on what happens in the spring. Athletes have already been given additional cross country eligibility while indoor track eligibility has also been extended (as of October).

If the NCAA ultimately gives extra outdoor track eligibility, then this question becomes moot. However, if they don't extend eligibility, then I would think that an NCAA athlete in this situation could at least file for a waiver of some sort.

Admittedly, I don't know how extensive or wide-spread this issue will be in March. That said, it's possible that some collegiate athletes may be in a position where they can't return to the United States this spring. This could be because their university is not holding in-person classes or because certain restrictions are in place to limit travel going out of a certain country.

I'm definitely not the best guy to answer this question, but I gave it my best shot.

I'm glad someone is asking this question because we could end up having a VERY deep year in the distance events if most schools and conferences compete during the outdoor track season. With athletes receiving extra outdoor track eligibility from last year, the overall depth and the standards required to make it to championship meets will likely become more challenging.

But by how much? Well, that's the difficult question.

It's tough to say how many nationally competitive athletes will be returning to use their eligibility and it's even tougher to say which of those returning athletes will actually be fit enough to qualify for their respective regional meet (assuming the NCAA qualifying system doesn't change from now until then).

I would also imagine that an event like the steeplechase will probably be the deepest out of all of the distance events. There are likely a handful of talented endurance athletes whose best event is the steeplechase. They probably have the greatest incentive out of anyone to return to the NCAA this spring since they haven't had the opportunity to race in their preferred event (at the collegiate level) for almost two years now.

General intuition suggests that the distance events will be deeper this year. However, during these crazy times, it's hard to be 100% sure on anything.

Well, we should make a quick disclaimer that cross country eligibility did not count this past fall. So, on paper, the favorites will likely be Luis Grijalva, Cooper Teare and Conner Mantz (assuming they all return to use their remaining eligibility).

We had Mantz ranked at TSR #1 in our preseason cross country rankings this past summer, but it's rumored that he has since sustained an injury. By next fall, I would like to imagine that Mantz can be 100% healthy again.

If that's the case, then I like Mantz to take home NCAA gold, especially since the championship racing distance is 10,000 meters. In theory, that extended racing distance favors Mantz more than it does Teare or Grijalva.

Nonetheless, Teare and Grijalva have been phenomenal as of late and it would not at all surprise me if either of those guys were crowned as national champions next fall.

Gosh, this is such a tough question. I truly don't think there is a right answer here.

Who has the higher ceiling? I would argue Drew Hunter.

The fact that he ran 3:35.90 for 1500 meters at the age of 20 is wildly impressive. His personal bests of 7:39 (3k) and 13:17 (5k) are hard to ignore as well. If he's done all of that in the past two years, what will he be able to do in his mid-to-late 20's when he's in his prime?

However, in terms of long-term success, I think I would go with Grant Fisher.

Jerry Schumacher is a brilliant coach when it comes to developing nationally elite distance talents and Fisher has already found plenty of success at the pro level since leaving Stanford. Just this year, he has run times of 3:36 (1500) and 13:11 (5k).

Bowerman Track Club has plenty of older distance athletes on their roster who are still posting top-notch performances. That's a good sign for someone like Fisher whose most overlooked strength during his time in college was his consistency (even if that consistency didn't always translate to national titles).

Not really a question, but I'm glad someone brought up these Australians! A handful of collegiates from the "Land Down Under" have been on fire this year, posting a handful of impressive times.

Florida State's Lauren Ryan had an excellent performance at the ACC XC Championships last year, giving us a glimpse of her potential with a 6th place finish. Sure enough, 2020 has been her year from a performance perspective.

Earlier this month, Ryan ran a new 10k personal best of 32:58 on the roads. On the track, she secured a new 5k personal best of 15:49 and most recently earned a new 3k personal best of 8:54 (both times coming on the outdoor oval).

Ryan has elevated her fitness to a scary-good level. The Florida State women were a bit quieter than we expected them to be this past cross country season, but not having Lauren Ryan was likely a big reason for their modest performances.

With a potential star low-stick returning to this program (either this winter or next fall), the Seminoles could be getting a major scoring spark to add to an already-deep lineup.

As for a few other names, Zach Facioni just ran 7:51 for 3000 meters. Truthfully, that isn't a super surprising time for someone of his caliber. Still, having him in the best fitness of his college career is huge for the Wake Forest men.

The Demon Deacons were already a problem for their conference foes on the cross country course this past fall. With top scorer Zach Facioni and a few other underrated talents set to return, Wake Forest could emerge as one of the best teams in the NCAA during the upcoming winter cross country season.

Josh Phillips (Villanova) is another promising name. His recent string of results includes times of 8:00 (3k), 14:02 (5k) and 29:42 (10k). The Australian is clearly taking steps in the right direction and it seems like he may be the next true low-stick for the Wildcats.

With top-ranked runners like Casey Comber and Andrew Marston now out of cross country eligibility, seeing Phillips make such big improvements has to be incredibly exciting from a scoring standpoint if you're Villanova.

Finally, we have Ed Goddard. The Iona runner has had a huge breakout year and could be a major name to watch if the Gaels have a winter cross country season. After running a huge personal best of 28:48 for 10,000 meters back in October, Goddard went on to drop a time of 62:16 for the half-marathon.

If this Iona talent can translate his success from those performances to the cross country course this winter, then the Gaels could be top-tier contenders in the NCAA. With Johnjack Millar and Ehab El-Sandali already viewed as key low-sticks for this team, a third low-stick could give Iona the necessary firepower to compete with some of the best distance programs in the country.

There are likely a handful of other promising and talented Aussies who have made big improvements as of late that I didn't mention. However, for the ones who we have already talked about, don't be surprised when they return to the NCAA and begin to throw down some big-time results.