Gavin Struve
Mar 66 min
Written by Gavin Struve, edits and additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
Editor's Note: Our TSR writers were asked to produce three sentences or less of analysis on every entrant in every distance event for every division.
As the reigning champion over 5000 meters (among other events), Fiona Smith will be a significant favorite to win this race. She is, after all, undefeated across five distances this winter alone (against D3 competition) and holds the D3 indoor national record in this event (15:50). But with a formidable field surrounding her this year, at what point will she/can she pull away?
2. Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel (U. of Chicago)
Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel entered this academic year carrying the label of being a miler above all. But after an elite cross country season in the fall and the NCAA #2 (5k) mark this winter, she looks to be one of the most versatile and adaptable distance runners that D3 has to offer. Her blend of speed and newly displayed stamina probably makes her the greatest threat to Fiona Smith if there is one.
3. Rachel Hirschkind (SUNY Geneseo)
Not only is Rachel Hirschkind one of the most experienced runners in this talented field, but she appears to have considerably more momentum entering this indoor national meet than she did a year ago when she finished 16th in this race. However, it remains to be seen whether that translates to her first 5k All-American finish, something that we know that she is more than capable of achieving.
4. Grace Richardson (NYU)
It's easy to forget that Grace Richardson contested this event at the 2023 indoor national meet, placing 19th. Of course, she looks like a completely different (and far more refined) distance runner since then, stacking a top-10 finish at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships with PRs in the mile, the 3k and the 5k in three consecutive races this season. As a sub-4:50 miler and two-time cross country All-American, Richardson may be the biggest challenger to Smith (rather than Battleson-Gunkel) depending on who you ask.
5. Shaelyn Hostager (Wartburg)
Shaelyn Hostager, who finished 9th in this event at the 2023 indoor national meet and has been more successful over the 10k distance, is one of several stars in this field who look primed to earn their first 5k All-American finish. The Wartburg ace has a gaudy new 16:45 (5k) PR, has seemingly sharpened her speed by racing the 3k and the DMR in recent months, and is coming off of her best-ever cross country campaign. Everything seems to be coming together for the only star Knight runner in this field.
6. Deyanneira Colon Maldonado (Aurora)
On the heels of a breakout cross country season, Deyanneira Colon Maldonado ran PRs from the 400 meters (yes, you read that right) up to the 5k. She raced the mile on the national stage last year, but her range probably makes her better-suited to race a longer distance event like this at the national meet where the race should unfold in a more tactical manner.
7. Penelope Greene (SUNY Geneseo)
Few could have predicted that Penelope Greene was poised to finish with the individual bronze medal at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, even after three-straight wins heading into that meet. So perhaps she has another shock in store for us on the national stage this weekend. But truthfully, Greene (who has never recorded a top-10 national meet finish on the oval) has rapidly ascended to the point where it would take a truly groundbreaking result from her to surprise us.
8. Sara Stephenson (Johns Hopkins)
It's admittedly a bit of a surprise to see Sara Stephenson venture to the 5k distance after opting for the 3k at the past two indoor national meets. That, of course, is not to say that she isn't well-suited for this event. Mind you, she recorded top-10 finishes at the past two NCAA XC Championships in a distance just one kilometer longer than this one and she has seen her fair share of national meets on the track.
9. Kate Sanderson (MIT)
One thing Kate Sanderson has over a number of competitors in this field is that she raced in this event at both the NCAA Indoor Championships and the NCAA Outdoor Championships in 2023, even if she finished 20th both times. The hope for her is that having that experience under her belt will translate to a breakthrough and a finish closer to where she's seeded. It's encouraging that she took a small step forward in cracking the top-40 for the first time at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships.
10. Riley Buese (Lewis & Clark)
After a cross country national meet finish (17th) that was admittedly unexpected, Riley Buese will hope to achieve a similar result (but an even higher finish) at the 2024 NCAA Indoor Championships. While there are more proven women in this field, who would we be to discount someone with the kind of momentum that Buese boasts after setting new PRs in both the 5k and the 3k in her lone races over those distances this season?
11. Genna Girard (Williams)
Genna Girard looks to be a prime candidate to outperform her seed given that she's the returning 5000-meter national meet silver medalist from last winter. She won the past two races that she finished over this distance with ease, but it's fair to question whether we'll see the best version of her after she recorded a "DNF" at Boston U. last month and faltered a bit at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships.
12. Rachel Krouse (UW-Stevens Point)
At first glance, Rachel Krouse looks like a bit of an outlier in this field, relative to her seed position, as someone who has never earned an All-American finish. But just two years ago, she finished 10th over 5000 meters at the indoor national meet and she's probably in even better shape now after nabbing PRs from the mile up to the 5k this season.
13. Paige Phillips (Coast Guard)
Sure, Paige Phillips is "only" listed at NCAA #18 over 5000 meters this season, but it's hard to argue that she doesn't belong here after she produced an All-American finish in her first national meet appearance just a few months ago. And with a slew of seasonal PRs, Phillips appears to have momentum that rivals anyone in this field.
14. Estelle Snider (U. of Chicago)
As the lone freshman in this race, this could be the first of many national meet appearances for Estelle Snider. Her youth, and the support of an elite program, implies that she has some of the highest upside of any of these women. Of course, her level of inexperience could limit her short-term ceiling.
15. Rebecca Markham (Hope)
Rebecca Markham is an excellent case study in how progress is not always linear, particularly in distance running. She produced a promising 83rd place finish at the cross country national meet in her freshman season before struggling throughout late 2022 and finishing 145th on the same stage that season. So when she placed in the top-30 at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships and ran PRs in her next two races after that, it's hard not to feel optimistic about her even if she's a bit far out of the All-American conversation.
16. Phoebe Ward (Carleton)
Phoebe Ward is an aerobic-centric distance talent who seemingly should be best over 10,000 meters. Although, we wouldn't know given that she's raced that event just once and never on the national stage. At any rate, we must applaud her recent trajectory and acknowledge that she may be best-served by employing an honest pace.
17. Sophie McManus (Carleton)
This figures to serve as great experience for Sophie McManus as someone who, entering her final year of competition, has been more of a key cog in an elite distance program than an individual star. However, she should be emboldened by the presence of a teammate and training partner in a field that's large in both the amount of athletes and importance.
18. Lara Kallem (Simpson (IA))
Lara Kallem admittedly hasn't given us much reason to believe that she'll be competitive toward the top-half of this field. But as a fourth-year athlete racing on the national stage for just the second time in her career, she has little to lose by trying to make a statement. And for the most part, she has been fairly steady this winter, giving her reliability that some backend seeds don't always have.
19. Allison Dell (Lynchburg)
Allison Dell has been a picture of year-over-year improvement throughout her three years in the NCAA. The junior Hornet went from 188th to 118th and eventually to 45th at the past three cross country national meets. And with a 5k PR in a solo effort this past weekend, Dell may be continuing to peak as she heads into one of the most important races of her life.
20. Kate Cochran (NYU)
As a graduate student who ran PRs in her past two races and recently helped her team to a runner-up finish with a top-50 performance at the NCAA XC Championships, Kate Cochran seems to have a level of late-season poise that doesn't necessarily correlate with her seed position. That may well translate to a breakthrough over 5000 meters this weekend.