The Texas Effect

With Nationals coming up, we thought it would be interesting to put a spotlight on where NCAA's is being held before we get to the people running in it. Because Oregon is renovating their track to host the 2021 World Championships, the NCAA needed to find a new home for the outdoor national meet.

Eugene has been the home to Nationals since 2012 when the event was hosted at Drake Stadium in Des Moines. For 2019 and 2020, the NCAA announced that the University of Texas would be hosting outdoor Nationals in Austin, Texas.

Obviously, the weather that the athletes will be competing in will be different. How different is the weather actually and how will that affect the races? These questions and more were answered by some of our TSR staff writers...

Ben: As you can see by these two charts, the scorching heat in Austin will force competitors to run a different kind of race than they would in Eugene. The low temperatures for every day in Austin would have eclipsed the high in Eugene for every day except June 6. On average, the high temperature in Austin will be almost 19°F warmer than in Eugene. This does not even include the difference in humidity between the two cities – 94°F in Austin feels like almost 100°F.

Ben: After looking at the startling difference in temperatures, one might point out that the races will be run later this year compared to last. That is true, but even with a few extra hours, Austin will still be significantly hotter than Eugene.

As seen by the chart, Austin keeps its heat even at night. With sunset not occurring until 8:26 PM, runners will still have to deal with the sun and heat even with races being pushed back a few hours. The chart also shows that the humidity still plays a large factor at night, as it makes the weather feel at least four degrees warmer.

Sean: The 10k will clearly be affected by the heat with temperatures likely to be hovering between 85 to 90° at 9 PM. Still, those conditions are not unheard of at a National Championship and 10k runners are accustomed to having water stations on the backstretch, as will surely be the case in Austin. If athletes can manage the heat through their warm-ups, the 10k should not be majorly affected.

On the other hand, the 5k features a number of doublers from the steeplechase and the 10k. Controlling body temperature and fatigue on a second race presents a huge challenge to anyone doubling. With a few fresh faces entering the race, expect them to make the race hard from the gun. The heat can still wreak havoc on those who are fresh, especially if they overplay their hands, but its effect on those doubling back will be the difference in the race.

Michael: I think that the 5k and 10k will be affected the most by the heat. The simple fact that these athletes will be running for longer than athletes in other races means that the heat will have more of an effect on them. While races like the 800 and the 1500 will still be affected by the heat, athletes running in such races won’t have as much time to overheat. In the 5k and 10k, the heat will cause people to become fatigued earlier in the races and this will likely result in them being very tactical. Sean makes a good point about athletes running both races, as the heat will be yet another factor that makes this double challenging.

Ben: I do not have much to add to what Michael and Sean have said other than to emphasize the effect that the weather will have on people doubling. The heat will certainly make recovery much harder, which may impact Allie Ostrander as she tries to double in the steeple and the 5k. These two races are only separated by an hour and a half, so she will have to recover quickly. Of course, this is Ostrander were talking about, so she might be able to succeed despite the weather, but it is something to keep an eye on. Additionally, we might not be seeing Morgan McDonald in the 10k this year because of the weather. Would McDonald have tried the double in a cooler climate? Maybe. Perhaps this was not part of the calculus in his decision, but the 10k/5k double is certainly much more difficult this year in Austin.

Sean: The sprinters. But beyond that, there is definitely a home-field advantage for the Texas Longhorns and additionally a little bit of home-field advantage for all Texas teams.

Michael: Teams that are coming from similar climatic areas will benefit, as they are more accustomed to competing in hot weather and have the opportunity to train in it to prepare themselves. Athletes from regions like the northeast and northwest may struggle a bit more, as the temperature will be a shock to many of them.

Ben: I think athletes who competed in the East regional will benefit from running in Jacksonville last week. The high temperature throughout the competition was 96°F while the low was 64. The runners who were able to survive those conditions will be well-prepared for the conditions that they will face in Austin.

Sean: Having the championships in Austin is not the best thing for distance running, but it’s definitely a plus for track and field as a whole. Rotating the NCAA Championships around the country builds the fan base to support the sport moving forward. Heading to a Top 30 US metropolis finally provides the opportunity for growth that the sport desperately needs. As wonderful as Eugene is, the US needs to diversify its major events across the country. The spectacles of the Penn Relays and Millrose come from the opportunity to bring thousands of fans and media in a way that is not present in Oregon. That does not mean that the US Championships should not stay in Eugene. They should stay – but moving the NCAA Championships will be great for the sport.

Michael: I think that overall this is a good move for the sport. Eugene and Hayward Field are certainly special and deserve a spot in the rotation but I believe that changing up the venue is beneficial. Eugene is not particularly easy to access as direct flights are limited to nearby airports. Also, consistently holding the meet on the west coast means that east coast teams are always having to travel across the country. Longer travel days and the time zone difference are not exactly going to help athletes prepare for races. Continually moving the location around to other suitable venues levels the playing field. Home field advantage is real, and an argument could be made that Oregon and other nearby schools perform better at NCAA's when it is in Eugene. Fans from different areas of the country also get the opportunity to go watch when the meet is held in different locations. The weather in Austin might not be ideal, but I think it is a positive change from keeping the meet at Oregon every year.

Ben: I have a slightly different opinion than Sean and Michael on this. I think it is good for the NCAA to rotate through different places, but I think Eugene should be in the rotation every other year or every three years at least. The knowledgeable fans, as well as the history of Hayward Field, enhances the National Championship experience for everyone involved. A system where Eugene alternates with other locations every year would give other cities the chance to grow the sport in their community and make sure that athletes still get to experience running at Historic Hayward Field. So, I do think hosting in a different place is good although hosting Nationals in Austin in June seems like a bad idea. Cities with more moderate climates would be more ideal substitutes for Eugene.

Wednesday, June 5 (Weather: 94/74°F)

6:46 PM: 1500 Meters Semifinal Men

7:02 PM: 3000 Meter Steeplechase Semifinal Men

8:14 PM: 800 Meters Semifinal Men

9:08 PM: 10,000 Meters Final Men

Thursday, June 6 (Weather 93/74)

7:16 PM: 1500 Meters Semifinal Women

7:32 PM: 3000 Meter Steeplechase Semifinal Women

8:44 PM: 800 Meters Semifinal Women

9:38 PM: 10,000 Meters Final Women

Friday, June 7 (Weather 93/75)

7:41 PM: 1500 Meters Final Men

7:54 PM: 3000 Meter Steeplechase Final Men

8:44 PM: 800 Meters Final Men

9:25 PM: 5000 Meters Final Men

Saturday, June 8 (Weather 93/74, chance of storms)

5:41 PM: 1500 Meters Final Women

5:54 PM: 3000 Meter Steeplechase Final Women

6:44 PM: 800 Meters Final Women

7:25 PM: 5000 Meters Final Women

Weather in Austin today: High 89 low 76

5 PM: 89, feels like 95

6 PM: 89, feels like 95

7 PM: 87, feels like 93

8 PM: 84, feels like 89

9 PM: 83, feels like 87

Sunset: 8:26 PM

Weather in Jacksonville during East regional

May 23: 87/71

May 24: 91/64

May 25: 96/70

Weather in Sacramento during West regional

May 23: 79/57

May 24: 76/55

May 25: 73/54

Weather in Eugene last year:

June 6: 77/39

June 7: 71/48

June 8: 71/47

June 9: 59/47