TSR Collaboration
Jan 27, 202113 min
We have now reached the point in the winter months where we have indoor track AND cross country results to analyze! Gosh, we never thought we would be saying that...
Either way, we posed some questions to our TSR crew to get their insights on what is happening around the NCAA so far this season. Let's dive right in...
Sam: The pandemic. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of talented competitors in the women's 800 meter field this year, but realistically, Mu looks to be the dominant favorite. The biggest obstacle on her road to a national title is how COVID continues to spread, leaving us with a chance that the NCAA Championships don’t happen (again). I suppose the other catch is that COVID restrictions to either her directly or Texas A&M could theoretically result in her absence from the meet.
Maura: No one. I really don't think anyone stands a chance against her. Mu has already shown that she is on a different level than her competitors in just the first two meets that she has competed in. She has won her races easily, winning the 800 meters by eight seconds and the 600 meters by three seconds. As Sam pointed out, any complications due to COVID will be the only obstacle in front of Mu’s first run for an individual NCAA title.
Ben: Laurie Barton. I would tend to agree with Sam and Maura that Mu is the clear favorite, but we are also talking about the indoor 800. Crazy things happen in this event at the National Championships. Maybe the Texas A&M freshman is so much better than the rest of the field that she will win easily, but Barton has looked very strong this year. She has run 2:05 and is coming off an impressive 2:42 in the 1000 meters. If the race becomes tactical or if Mu gets stuck in the middle of the field, Barton could pull off the upset.
Michael: Sage Hurta. A lot of people forget that Hurta ran 2:00.99 during outdoors in 2019 (unattached) after redshirting the NCAA season. If Hurta chooses to pursue the 800 this season and is in similar form as she was in 2019, then she could make a serious push for the title. Based on personal bests, Sage Hurta is the only major threat to Athing Mu’s title hopes at this time. However, Hurta could end up pursuing the mile (she holds a 1500 meter personal best of 4:09) which would make Mu the hands-down favorite.
Sam: I already addressed the idea of whether a national meet will actually happen, so I’ll pass on doing that again. As for if Hedeilli is the favorite -- yes, but I wouldn’t hand him the title just yet. There are plenty of guys who have not even raced this season and I don’t see Hedeilli as being dominant in the same way that Mu has been this season.
Maura: I believe it is still too early to determine a national title favorite in the 800 meters for the men. Yes, Hedeilli’s time is stellar, but some individuals just have more experience on the national stage. Jason Gomez (Iowa State), Cooper Williams (Indiana), Chris Conrad (Missouri), Baylor Franklin (Ole Miss) and Everett Smulders (Ole Miss) are all guys who have been great so far this season and are right there knocking on the door of guys who could be surprise title contenders.
Ben: Hedeilli is the favorite, but not by much. Cooper Williams is someone who I see as the co-favorite and he has run well so far this season. With experience at the NCAA Championships, the Hoosier veteran might be the safer bet to get through rounds and put himself in contention for the title.
However, Hedeilli’s 1:45 is just too fast to not make him the favorite going into March. As far as the national meet happening, I really have no idea. I did not think we would have an indoor season at all this year, but so far, the meets seem to be going off without a hitch. At this point, I would predict that NCAA’s is going to be run, but I do not feel confident about that prediction.
Michael: I agree with Maura that it is too early to say who the favorite is for the men’s 800. 1:45.68 is blazing fast, but that doesn’t necessarily indicate that Hedeilli will be ready to take down the rest of the NCAA in March. It’s hard to imagine anyone else winning at this point, but we don’t know where Cooper Williams may be by the end of the season. If Williams is in top form, he could present a real challenge for Hedeilli. We have also yet to see Penn State’s Domenic Perretta run the 800 this season and we view him as a potential contender.
Addressing the possibility of the National Championships being cancelled, I think it is a real possibility. So far, teams have shown that it can be possible to hold meets, but the NCAA Championships is a bigger venue than we have seen so far and a lot more has to go into it in terms of logistics, so we will have to wait and see.
Sam: “Can” and “will” are not the same thing. Can they win? Sure. Will they win? Probably not. I still think Stanford is the clear favorite. Arkansas has looked solid, but they don’t have the depth or talent to match up against a full Stanford roster which includes Ella Donaghu, Jessica Lawson, Aubrey Roberts and so on. Realistically, the Cardinal have five to six runners who could be All-Americans. Arkansas has maybe three or four.
Maura: I think Sam nailed this right on the head. Although it is hard to determine where the Stanford women are right now since we haven’t seen them race since last March, their depth up-front appears to be stronger than what Arkansas has. Lauren Gregory looks like she has returned to top form and Logan Morris has come on strong since transferring into the program. But how will these women and their teammates fare in a national field?
Ben: No. I agree with Maura and Sam’s sentiments, but at the end of the day, there are two teams who are clearly better than the Razorbacks (on paper). I would not be surprised to see Arkansas upset either NC State or Stanford if one of those teams have an off day. However, I struggle to see a scenario where both underperform at the national meet.
Michael: Arkansas does not appear to be the nation's top team when it comes to cross country, but their early success on the track is a good sign. Stanford and NC State both have just a little bit more depth at full strength, but crazier things have happened. At this point, I would say Arkansas has a strong shot at making the podium and an outside chance at a title, but based on the dominance that we expect to see from Stanford and NC State, I think NCAA’s will be a two-team race for the national title.
Note: The Furman men were ranked at TSR #25 in our team rankings this past summer, but dropped to the "Just Missed" section in our preseason winter rankings.
Ben: I’m not ready to put them within our Top 25 despite these strong performances. After the fall, the Top 25 looks stronger than I imagined it would at the beginning of the year. Weber State and Charlotte have run well and ooze potential to finish even higher up in our rankings after a few races this winter.
Right now, our TSR #25 team is Indiana who has not run a cross country race yet, but has also seen some of their athletes post top times on the indoor oval this season (Ben Veatch’s 8:02 in the 3k and Matthew Schadler 4:02 in the mile).
I suppose if Florida State’s star transfers do not run this winter then I could see Furman sneaking ahead of them. While I am high on Furman’s potential in the future, I do not think they are better than any of the teams within our Top 25, currently.
Maura: In my opinion, the Furman men need more athletes to post respectable times for me to consider them a Top 25 team on the cross country course. Seeing Ponder throw down a sub-four mile naturally bodes well for the team and his two teammates running personal bests in the 3k is promising.
Although they may not be a Top 25 team at this moment, I do see the potential for them sneaking into that position next year or even later this season.
Michael: I agree that it is a little soon to label Furman as a Top 25 team. The performances we have seen from Ponder, Reading and Dolhare are encouraging, but are only part of the puzzle that is putting together a top cross country team.
Furman will need to show that they have more depth before they can make it into the Top 25, but they are certainly close. If they can throw down some impressive 5k times this season, that may change my mind.
Maura: Given that I was at the Dixie State Invitational, I would say the Utah State men’s and women’s teams came out ready to race and we should be encouraged by their results. The USU men had a stronger pack than the Southern Utah men did at the front of this race with Camren Todd taking the individual win.
Caleb Garnica and Haydon Cooper both have experience from racing on a national qualifying team in 2019 and Darren Harman is stronger than he was three years ago after serving a church mission. Southern Utah put together a solid performance, but they just didn't have the firepower to match the Aggies of Utah State and that needs to be taken into consideration when talking about the talent of this team.
As for the Utah State women, most had not expected them to beat Southern Utah or California Baptist, two teams that have proven to be respectable and competitive squads over the past few years. However, when you place all five scorers within the top-13, good things will happen. Micaela Rivera and Katie Struthers did a great job of leading their younger teammates, giving the Aggies an excellent balance of depth and up-front scoring.
It will be interesting to see what the USU teams put together when they race at the Florida State Winter Classic during the first weekend in February. This was a nice step in the right direction for them.
Ben: I think we should take the results as positive signs for both Utah State programs, but I struggle to put a significant amount of stock in either performance. In a small meet early in the season, it is hard for me to gauge where either program is at. On the men’s side, it is good to see them win after losing so much firepower from last year, but I’m not sure if they are still in the national picture like there were last year.
For the women, this is an encouraging performance to upset both CBU and Southern Utah. I’m not sure if either of those teams had their best days, but you have to credit the Utah State women for showing up in a big way at their first cross country meet of the winter. This performance doesn't put them into our Top 25, but they have my attention now and another performance like this may earn them a spot in our rankings.
Michael: Building off of Ben’s points, I look at this meet similar to how I would view a cross country race in early September. Utah State’s wins on both sides are impressive and show potential for national-level success, but this was a small meet during an altered season.
Although this Utah State men’s team is less experienced than the successful teams that they have had in the past, I think this win suggests that they can be a strong, nationally-ranked team in the future.
The women's win, however, is potentially more encouraging as they took down a California Baptist team that we have been high on going into this year. If they can carry this momentum into the next few months, they have the ability to set themselves up for success down the road, whether that is later this season or next fall.
Sam: On the men’s side, give me Tom Brady from Michigan. He made the Super Bowl on a new team…wait, there’s another Tom Brady from Michigan?
The Tom Brady who currently runs in Ann Arbor had a monster opener at the UM B1G Simmons-Harvey Invitational and ran 7:58 for 3000 meters, a 28-second personal best. That mark may or may not qualify him for NCAA’s this year (depending on what happens in this weird indoor season), but it does bode very well for Michigan from a cross country perspective.
Brady could have been huge this winter cross country season, except the university has suspended athletics through the BIG 10 XC Championships.
For the women, Bethany Hasz running an NCAA-leading time of 15:50 (5k) as a solo effort is impressive. That time is nowhere near her personal best, but it shows a lot of potential to do it solo. I think she could be more of a threat in cross country than track this winter, but the mental toughness shown in that race bodes well for both disciplines.
Maura: LSU is known as being a powerhouse in the sprinting and field events, but Daivs Bove is making a name for himself after recording a new mile PR of 4:00.20, oh-so-close to the coveted sub-four mark. Bove’s previous personal best was 4:03 and that time only ranked him at NCAA #91 on the national descending order list for the 2019-2020 indoor season. Bove may need to run faster to qualify for NCAA’s this year, but this is a respectable time for someone who doesn’t come from a deep distance roster.
On the women’s side, I like the potential of Sarah Hendrick from Kennesaw State after she ran 2:05 for 800 meters. This time was a new PR and it has landed her at NCAA #4 on the descending order list for the 2020-2021 indoor track season. Hendrick may not always race against the toughest fields in the NCAA, but she makes her races count. The junior hasn’t competed at a national meet, but that could change this winter.
Ben: How about Alex Stitt of Oklahoma State? The freshman ran a 4:02 mile at the Woo Pig Classic, beating the Arkansas duo of Gilbert Boit and Jacob McLeod. The new Cowboy raced in his native Australia last fall, running 3:47 in the 1500 meters, 8:10 in the 3000 meters and 14:28 in the 5000 meters. In his first race in America, he looked sharp and could give Oklahoma State some more depth for their cross country lineup.
Arkansas' Logan Morris running 9:09 (3k), which is currently listed at NCAA #2, has gone under the radar a bit. The new Razorback looked strong this past fall and has carried that momentum to the track, running personal bests in the mile and 3k. Her 9:09 improved her PR by a whopping 18 seconds and established her as contender in the event. The Arkansas women have been impressive across the board, but Morris (and Lauren Gregory) are starting to emerge from the Razorback pack as true star low-sticks.
Michael: Graydon Morris of Texas came out of the gates hot at Arkansas’s Wooo Pig Classic, running 8:01 to win the 3k. This is a great performance from the true freshman who was one of the top recruits from the Class of 2020. The 3k field at the Woo Pig Classic was not necessarily loaded, but the rookie ran well and is knocking on the door of going under eight minutes.
Texas has produced some great talents over the years, and while his career is only just beginning, Graydon Morris looks very promising.
On the women's side, Alabama’s Mercy Chelangat threw down a 15:52 (5k) at the Carolina Challenge to put herself at NCAA #2 in the event. Chelangat won the SEC cross country title this past fall and while her personal best over 5k is 15:37, this performance shows us that she might be able to compete for a national title depending on who runs the 5k later this year.
Without the traditional early December meet at Boston University accounting for many of the 5k national qualifying spots, this performance puts Chelangat in a very good position to contend for NCAA gold if we continue to see a lack of top 5k performances from other women's distance talents around the country.
She is definitely an athlete to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Maura: For the men, give me Iowa State’s Wesley Kiptoo. The junior immediately saw success after transferring from Colby CC at the beginning of the 2020-2021 academic year. Winning every cross country meet, one of which was the BIG 12 XC Championships, has to give Kiptoo confidence for when he races the likes of Northern Arizona, BYU, Arkansas and Oregon. Kiptoo’s personal bests of 7:51 (3k) and 13:43 (5k) from last winter already showed us that can stay competitive amongst the best names in D1 and he has likely improved upon that fitness in the past year.
On the women's side, give me Stanford’s Ella Donaghu. She was a roll during the 2019-2020 academic year before COVID halted competitions. Her shiny personal bests of 4:33 (mile) and 8:54 (3k) catapulted her into the top of the NCAA and put her in contention for an individual title. The Cardinal have not yet released their track schedule, so it is unclear when Donaghu may race, but given her success last year, it's understandable why we would want to see our TSR #1 runner make her debut.
Ben: For the women, I am excited to see pretty much anyone from Stanford. Maura picked Donaghu, so I’ll say Jessica Lawson. Just like Donaghu, she ran personal bests in the mile (4:35) and 3k (8:59) last year, establishing herself as an All-American contender in both events. With Stanford so loaded this year, this parallel winter of indoor and cross country could be one of the most dominant campaigns by a program that we have seen in a very long time.
For the men, I am excited to see the Tulsa duo of Patrick Dever and Peter Lynch race for the first time in almost a year. They both ran well last indoor season, validating their 11th and 13th place finishes at NCAA’s in Terre Haute. It is hard to predict what they will do this year, but if they have improved from last year, then they may be able to mix it up with some of the more elite distance talents in the country later this winter.
Michael: I’m excited to see Cooper Teare return to the track. The last time he raced was February 28, 2020 when he ran 3:55 in the mile at Boston University. This established him as a very strong candidate to bring an individual title to Oregon, and he will likely find himself in a similar position when he returns to racing.
For the past few years, Teare has been overshadowed by stronger, more experienced runners, but he has finally risen to the top. Teare will be able to contend for a title in the mile, 3k, and/or 5k (not to mention the DMR). It will be interesting to see what he pursues, and who (or what) may stand in his way.
On the women’s side, Sage Hurta is a name I mentioned previously who has yet to toe the line this season, but will this weekend at Arkansas. The Colorado star holds an 800 meter personal best faster than anyone else in the NCAA at 2:00.99 (outdoor), but was also a cross country All-American. Her range will allow her to choose which event(s) she wants to go after this year.
This will be her first time racing on the track in a Colorado uniform since 2018.