TSR Collaboration
Mar 31, 202113 min
The NCAA outdoor track season has finally returned. After COVID-19 essentially cancelled spring competition for the 2020 season, many collegiate athletes who were looking to wrap up their eligibility weren't able to do that. However, two years later, most of these long-time seniors will finally have a chance to close out their careers and make a statement in their season finales.
Below, we highlighted a handful of those returning veterans (as well as a few others) who haven't raced since the 2020 indoor track season and analyzed how they could impact the NCAA once they toe the line this spring.
NOTE: Any returning name listed in this article was found on their respective team's 2021 track roster. Based on that information, TSR is assuming that these athletes will compete this spring.
Maura: 85%. With Texas A&M’s Athing Mu now competing in the NCAA, it might be smarter for Rivers to pursue the 1500 meters over the 800 meters. Even though Rivers has an 800 meter PR of 2:02, so many other NCAA competitors are in the same ballpark time-wise. The 1500 meters, in my mind, appears to be more wide-open and with her 4:10 personal best, I think that the Nittany Lion ace has a real chance to compete for the win come June.
Garrett: I’ll say 65%. It feels more likely than not that Rivers will pursue the 1500 meters. The 800 meters not only has numerous title contenders, but the overall depth of that field is going to make it difficult to even earn All-American honors. In the 1500 meters, there are significantly fewer title contenders and the depth of the field is kind of up in the air. A handful of top milers may not even contest the 1500 meters this spring.
However, the reason I am going with a lower percentage than Maura is because of River’s history at the national meet. In her past five national meets on the track, she has contested the 800 meters four times and the mile only once. That said, Rivers was set to enter the mile at the 2020 NCAA Indoor Championships before COVID cancelled the meet, so based on that info and with the way that this year’s 800 meter field looks, I’d say it’s more likely than not that the Penn State veteran pursues the 1500 meters.
Michael: I’ll give it about a 75% chance. The 800 is incredibly deep this year and Athing Mu looks all but unbeatable. The 1500 potentially loses some depth when it comes to outdoors (versus the mile during indoors) due to some athletes likely focusing on events like the steeplechase or the 5k. Rivers has typically leaned more towards the 800 when it comes to the NCAA Championships, but over the past year of collegiate competition, she seems to have shifted her focus a bit more towards the mile.
Rivers' 1500 personal best of 4:10 puts her in a better spot than her 2:02 personal best does in terms of winning a national title, although one (or both) of those times could be lowered before the NCAA Championships.
Finally, what makes me think Rivers will focus on the 1500 is that she may want to build some momentum to carry into the Olympic Trials later in the summer, where I think she would be more likely to shoot for a spot in the 1500 meters.
Maura: Yes, Dixon and Hunter are two of the top men to watch in the 800 this spring, but I actually believe that Finley McLear of Miami (OH) will be the favorite. McLear entered the 2021 indoor track season with a 1:48 personal best, but ended up chopping off three seconds by the end. His 1:45 at the indoor national meet earlier in March was only 0.01 seconds off of Hunter’s winning time. The RedHawk ace has been making a name for himself since entering the NCAA and has gained a significant amount of momentum. With some new experience on the national stage, having more momentum than any other 800 meter collegiate in the NCAA and uncertainty regarding Charlie Hunter's plan for outdoor track, I feel like McLear is capable of taking down previous All-Americans this season, including Devin Dixon.
Garrett: Gosh, I don’t feel confident about anyone I pick here. Dixon has a personal best of 1:44.76, has been to numerous NCAA Championships and if Hoppel wasn’t around in 2019, then the Texas A&M star likely would’ve been the heavy favorite for the national title.
Dixon seems like the guy who can truly run away from Hunter on pure fitness, although there have been times in his past where he hasn’t always looked great at certain national meets or hasn’t always matched regular season performances in championship races. That wasn’t necessarily the case in the spring of 2019, but Hunter does seem like the more refined championship runner and the 2021 indoor national meet was evidence of that.
I’ll take Dixon, but only because I wonder what Hunter’s plans will be for this outdoor track season. The Australian Olympic Trials will take place throughout the middle of April, so will Hunter’s focus in April be the 1500 meters? If he makes the Australian Olympic team, how will that impact his NCAA outdoor season going forward? I may be WAY overthinking this, but I’ll just go with my original answer of Devin Dixon and move on.
Michael: This is a really tough call. Charlie Hunter has the advantage of coming off a great indoor season while Devin Dixon has been solely focusing on coming back for this outdoor season. Even if he starts out a little rusty, Dixon will probably be back in top form by the NCAA Championships in June. In the past, Dixon has shown that he’s one of the top guys in the country and will be hungrier than ever after having missed out on a title a few times now.
Charlie Hunter (and the whole Oregon team for that matter) is on fire right now. I think that Hunter will be the favorite for the outdoor title if the Ducks’ dominance continues, but it will almost certainly be a close race. Other guys like Finley McLear and Takieddine Hedielli may also threaten for the title, so this should be a really good field in June.
I’m going with Hunter for now, but that may change if Devin Dixon returns this spring running faster than ever before.
Maura: For the men, I’ve got to go with Oregon’s James West. West has been unlucky at NCAA Championships in the 1500 meters. At the 2019 West Region Preliminary meet, West was entered with a 3:42 seed time, but after a false start in the final, he was disqualified and didn’t get the chance to prove himself at the NCAA Championships.
During the winter of 2020, West popped off stellar times in the 1500 meters and the mile, running 3:36 and 3:57, respectively. Of course, we didn't get to see him race at the national meet since COVID cancelled his opportunity.
Without cross country or indoor track eligibility remaining, the redshirt senior competed in Doha in September, running a wildly impressive 1500 meter PR of 3:34. Given this time and his experience, West is surely capable of challenging for the win at the NCAA Outdoor Championships, he just needs to make sure everything goes to plan on the right day.
As for the women, Toledo’s Petronela Simiuc is one to keep an eye on after her strong 2020 indoor campaign. The redshirt senior ran a 4:34 mile in mid-February of 2020, a time that qualified her for her first NCAA Championship. Of course, due to COVID-19, she didn’t get the opportunity to showcase her talents against the nation’s best. This time around, with a current 1500 meter PR of 4:14 which she ran on the indoor oval in Poland at the beginning of March, Petronela has the potential to rise in the collegiate ranks once again.
Garrett: Yeah, James West is the guy I’m watching. He was an absolute star during the 2020 indoor track season and he’s pretty much in the same tier as Hunter, Hocker and Teare. However, for the sake of variety, I think I’m going to go with Kyle Mau. The Indiana veteran is REALLY good and I think people forget just how strong he was before COVID interfered with collegiate competition. He owns personal bests of 3:57 (mile) and 7:50 (3k) and is probably one of the more experienced distance runners in the NCAA this year.
That said, this year’s mile field during the indoor track season was absurdly deep, and that was with a winter cross country season taking away a few top talents from the indoor oval. Despite the 1500 meter distance potentially being his best race, the 5k may actually be Mau’s ideal event this spring if he wants to use his speed in a tactical race to earn All-American honors.
On the women’s side, I am pumped to see Carina Viljoen. I think people have forgotten just how good this South Africa native is. She has run times of 4:13 (1500), 4:33 (mile) and 8:56 (3k). She was an SEC champion during the 2020 indoor track season, is a multi-time All-American and consistently races at a very high level.
With the Arkansas women making some serious noise this past indoor season and almost everyone on that roster making significant improvements, I am extremely eager to see what Viljoen is capable of doing when she toes the line. I have a feeling that she may end up putting herself in the national title conversation for 1500 meters by season’s end.
Michael: One name who really stands out to me is Northern Arizona's Theo Quax. He ran 3:39 for 1500 meters in 2019 (as a freshman) and then 3:58 for the mile during the 2020 indoor season. He was dealing with some injuries in 2020, but just ran a 1:54/3:51 double the other weekend. Sure, that's not anything super exciting, but if he can shake off the rust and regain some momentum, then Quax could be a very lethal threat come the postseason.
Of course, there’s no doubt that James West will be exciting to watch this season, too. With Oregon potentially having the three fastest 1500 meter runners in the country in Teare, Hocker and West (maybe four with Hunter?) we could be in for some serious threats to the collegiate record.
On the women's side, Virginia Tech’s Sarah Edwards will probably return after an extended hiatus from racing (she has already run 16:02 for 5000 meters this season) and will likely be focusing on the 1500 meters.
Edwards has run 4:16 in prior seasons and place 6th in the mile at the 2019 indoor national meet. She has also been a key member of Virginia Tech’s DMR indoors which placed 3rd at the national meet. Her season debut in the 5k indicates that she is in good shape and once Edwards drops down to her main event, the Hokie veteran could be a serious contender for a top All-American finish and...dare I say a national title?
Maura: I’ve got to say Kiptoo’s Iowa State teammate Edwin Kurgat will be his biggest competition in the 10k this spring. Kurgat has only raced one 10k on the outdoor track, recording a modest time of 29:31. However, if you look at his 10k cross country PR of 29:09, the Cyclone redshirt senior is surely capable of running faster.
Already a national champion in cross country, Kurgat has experience running from the front, winning races and competing against the NCAA’s best talent in essentially any meet he enters. Kurgat will surely benefit from training with Kiptoo and will have the chance to learn his teammate’s racing tactics prior to the national meet.
Garrett: It seems absurd to pick anyone other than Kurgat to take down Kiptoo...but that’s what I’m going to do. Kurgat, the 2019 NCAA cross country champion, has never actually run under 29 minutes in the 10k before. Meanwhile, someone like Robert Brandt has, owning a personal best of 27:39 from December. Wesley Kiptoo was only two seconds ahead of the Georgetown veteran in that race and as we saw on the grass just a few weeks ago, Kiptoo isn’t exactly unbeatable when someone is able to match his aggressive pacing.
With Brandt owning numerous All-American finishes and having a much better understanding of how tactical these NCAA Championships races are, I have a feeling that he is probably the best suited to take down Kiptoo. And honestly, I don’t think I’m going to regret this pick.
Michael: I think Vincent Kiprop is going to be the biggest threat to Kiptoo. In the past, Kiprop has shown that he isn’t afraid to go with a fast pace in a championship race and that's likely going to be the case this spring.
While the 10k at NCAA’s is frequently a tactical race, it won’t be if Kiptoo doesn’t want it to be. He took out the NCAA XC Championships in 2:31 for the first kilometer, and while that pace is not sustainable for 10k, he basically shattered the dreams of anyone not willing to go out fast with him.
If a similar type of race unfolds, I think Kiprop has the best chance of closing well off of a blistering first half. He nearly won the 10k in both 2018 and 2019, so you know that the Alabama runner is hungry for revenge in 2021.
Maura: I am a big fan of Cardama Baez heading into this outdoor track season. The fact that she almost took down New Mexico’s Weini Kelati in the 10k at the 2019 outdoor national meet with a major come-from-behind kick proves that she is capable of replicating a similar performance if need be.
The Oregon Duck owns personal bests of 15:26 (5k) and 32:26 (10k), respectively, two times that place her amongst the best in the nation. There are a plethora of respectable distance talents currently in the NCAA such as Mercy Chelangat, Katie Izzo and Courtney Wayment, but Cardama Baez has proven herself in recent meets against professionals and some NCAA competitors.
Garrett: I do think that people forget about Cardama Baez and don't appreciate just how talented this Oregon veteran is. She has been so good for so long and is one of the more consistent distance runners in the NCAA on the west coast. Cardama Baez is sneaky strong at the end of races and her championship experience is better than we give her credit for.
Do I think that she is a 10k title contender this year? Yes. Do I think that she is a 10k title favorite? No, not right now. The women’s 10k feels like it has the potential to be stronger than some people realize. At the Sound Running Track Meet in December, eight different D1 women ran under 33 minutes fairly comfortably...and that was at a meet that didn’t even count towards this current outdoor track season!
With that in mind, I think Cardama Baez’s ceiling is a 10k national title and an All-American honor in the 5k. However, more realistically, I think that she’ll probably end up as a double All-American between the two distance events.
Michael: Carmela Cardama Baez is one of those athletes who has seemingly been at the top of the NCAA forever. Winning a title, whether in the 5k or 10k, will be pretty difficult this year, even for the best runners in the country. There is so much depth in those events, but no singular favorite.
Because of this, I think Cardama Baez could come out on top with a national title. The 2019 10k may not have been as deep as previous years, but Cardama Baez still took Weini Kelati to the line when Kelati was the hands-down favorite. This year looks deeper, but I would say there is no favorite at this point in the season which could give Cardama Baez an avenue for a title.
Maura: Charlotte Prouse of New Mexico has been the national runner-up twice in the steeplechase throughout her collegiate career, finishing behind Boise State’s Allie Ostrander in both 2018 and 2019. We haven’t seen the Lobo redshirt senior compete much due to her exhausted cross country and indoor eligibility, but Prouse has likely has been able to string together solid training blocks in preparation for a big spring season. Her 9:44 steeplechase PR is one of the best in the NCAA entering this season and this could finally be Prouse’s opportunity to stand atop of the podium.
On the men's side, Middle Tennessee State’s Kigen Chemadi turned a few heads back in 2019 when he nabbed a 3rd place finish at the outdoor national meet in the steeplechase, finishing less than two seconds out from the win.
Chemadi was only in his first season competing in the steeplechase that year and he was continuously throwing down top times. A 2nd place finish and an 8:38 personal best at the East Regional Championships set the Blue Raider star for a strong performance at the NCAA Championships and he certainly delivered.
Chemadi has had a respectable start to his 2021 spring campaign, competing in the 800 and 1500 at Auburn. However, once he gets to compete in some bigger meets, he will be one to keep an eye on.
Michael: I have to agree that Charlotte Prouse will be victorious in the steeple this spring. She is another athlete who has been right on the edge for a few years, but she was overshadowed by Allie Ostrander’s utter dominance. The steeplechase is an event that requires extensive preparation, and having been out of racing for so long may be an advantage for Prouse as she has likely been able to do steeplechase-specific training for much longer than other athletes who have been focusing on indoor track and/or cross country.
Oklahoma State’s Ryan Smeeton took 2nd in the steeplechase at the 2019 outdoor national meet, and held the top time in the NCAA that season with a huge mark of 8:27. He is coming off of a successful cross country season in which he took 8th at the BIG 12 XC Championships (October 2020) and recently placed 26th at the NCAA Championships.
That 10k strength should be a great asset to Smeeton as he transitions to the steeple and goes for his first NCAA title. The Canadian may also have his eye on the Olympics which will incentivize him to chase a fast time as the Olympic standard is 8:22.
Garrett: I won’t repeat what Maura and Michael said as I also believe that Charlotte Prouse should be considered as the title favorite. That said, teammate Adva Cohen could probably make some serious noise and is probably in that title conversation right now. Given how well Hannah Steelman has run as of late, she also has to be in the mix.
As for the men, I’ll take Ryan Smeeton as well. He was outstanding during the 2019 spring season, earning a time of 8:27 and finishing runner-up at the NCAA Championships. The Oklahoma State star was thrusted into the mix of being a top title contender last year, but after some time to adjust to expectations and to strengthen himself in other races, I think Smeeton should be considered the overall title favorite for this year. He now has the experience necessary to win NCAA gold and the Cowboys from Stillwater, Oklahoma have been on fire as of late.