TSR Collaboration
Apr 13, 202114 min
We may be in the middle of the outdoor track season, but there have been a ton of new developments when it comes to top talents transferring to new programs. Below, Maura, Michael and Garrett answer a few key prompts about the potential impact of certain moves.
Maura: Matt Young is surely a solid pickup for the Georgetown Hoyas as the current Arkansas distance runner has been having a breakout 2021 season after running 13:42 (5k) and 28:41 (10k). The Georgetown men are a relatively young team, as their top-seven at the BIG East XC Championships and NCAA XC Championships featured four freshmen, two sophomores and one junior. Young will add some much needed experience to this group with his solid distance accolades.
Admittedly, I'm a bit skeptical on the Hoyas being able to win the BIG East title next fall as the Butler men have been consistently rising in the rankings. However, I do think Georgetown will be able to finish within a few points with Young bringing a potential low-stick to a depth-heavy team.
Michael: Matt Young is going to be a big difference maker for the Hoyas. The BIG East has been getting increasingly more deep over the past few years and teams that would have dominated not that long ago have been left scratching their heads wondering what happened.
Georgetown has been putting together a strong squad with future conference titles in mind. Matt Young will immediately be one of the top runners in the conference and will help Georgetown shoot for the title.
That said, Butler has been very good as of late and Georgetown only beat Villanova by two points in the BIG East XC Championships this past winter. As Maura pointed out, the Hoyas are still a very young team, but the addition of Matt Young, in my opinion, makes them a serious contender.
Garrett: I still think the Hoyas are one piece away from actually contending with Butler. The Bulldogs earned a super convincing win at the BIG East XC Championships this past winter and their firepower was simply unmatched. Even with Young on this team and the young talent behind him making developments, additional firepower will be needed to counter the scoring potency of Bedard and Keane (assuming they return next fall). The Villanova men are also a fairly young group and they are certainly not going to be getting any worse next fall.
I like the Hoyas much more with Young on their team as I think he gives them a true low-stick that they can lean-on. In fact, I think they're probably a top-20 when Young is at his best. Still, Butler will continue to be a major roadblock as long as they bring back most of their top names.
Maura: As much as I would like to say “yes,” I still think it will take a few seasons for the NAU women to jump into the top-four. Teams such as Stanford, NC State, Michigan State and New Mexico have been notably dominant in the college scene over the last few years. With certain women potentially returning for next year thanks to extended eligibility, there’s no reason why those teams won’t continue to succeed.
As for the Lumberjacks, they have quickly made a name for themselves alongside their men’s program. Stephanie Cotter of Adams State will surely add firepower up-front with Taryn O’Neill thanks to her experience on the national stage. Cotter has been a five-time NCAA D2 champion, one title coming on the cross country course.
Training at altitude won’t be a problem for Cotter nor will racing against the nation’s best. Adding Cotter to the NAU’s roster could catapult this rising team into the top-eight, but more needs to happen if they are going to get on the podium.
Michael: Stephanie Cotter has been one of the biggest names in D2 during her time at Adams State and I think she will fit right into NAU’s growing program. The Lumberjacks’ rise towards becoming one of the best women’s programs in the NCAA has been impressive, but it’s going to be difficult for them to crack the podium with the strength of the teams already there.
NAU looks like a virtual lock to make the top-10 with Cotter, and quite possibly better than that. However, I’m not sure the podium will be in reach this fall. However, it could be in a year or two if the Lumberjacks continue to build their roster.
Garrett: I'll go against what Maura and Michael said. I really do think that this group should be considered as a podium contender in the fall.
This team heavily relied on Taryn O'Neill this past winter to give them most of their scoring potency and firepower. That was fine for what the Lumberjacks were trying to accomplish as they had an outstanding supporting group that only got better when Jessa Hanson entered the lineup in the postseason.
However, Cotter seems like a very realistic D1 All-American candidate. I'm not necessarily saying that she'll be as good as O'Neill, but she can at least be that secondary low-stick who gives this team a major spark. If you look at the NCAA XC Championship results from this past March, you'll notice that NAU fifth scorer tallied 138 points (finishing 171st overall). The 46th place finisher (Sasha Neglia) scored 38 points for her team.
In other words, Cotter could've joined the NAU women this past winter, not even finished as an All-American, and still would've cut-off 100 points from their team score. If you ignore displacement, that would've been enough to give the women from Flagstaff a total team score of 218 points, just six points out from 4th place Michigan State.
Cotter dramatically changes the dynamic of this team and with the young talent that the NAU coaching staff is still developing, we should have every reason to believe that this is a top-five program (depending on who returns to use their additional eligibility).
Maura: It’s been a long time off from racing for Caleb Brown between COVID-19 cancelling his senior high school track season and not racing for Wisconsin during the fall or winter. Brown decided to transfer from Wisconsin in mid-November, but then things got pretty quiet regarding where he would end up. However, a few weeks ago, Oregon became the next stop for this star freshman.
Brown will surely add depth to an already loaded roster for the Ducks. He has experience racing on the prep national stage, placing 3rd at NXN Championships in 2019 and 1st at the New Balance Outdoor National Championships in the 3200 meters, also in 2019.
It’s hard to gauge what Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker will do next fall given their recent successes, but if these two men return and Brown is in similar, if not better shape, then he could find himself amongst Oregon’s top-seven in cross country and potentially see some new personal bests on the track.
Coach Ben Thomas has been doing a remarkable job at churning out stellar performance lately and Brown could be his next project.
Michael: Oregon has almost undoubtedly been the men’s team of the year so far on the track. NCAA records, national titles, a breathtaking new stadium...the list goes on. The atmosphere in Eugene is rich with success and while past success often breeds future success, it also creates a lot of pressure. That is going to be the biggest factor for Brown.
It may take him a while to adjust to a new program and get back into racing, but if he can thrive under the pressure and get comfortable in the national spotlight, then I think he will be a strong contributor both in cross country and track. Give him a couple years, and I think he could be winning national titles. The future is looking bright for this young talent.
Garrett: Brown's role on this team next year, specifically in cross country, largely depends on what is going to happen with his teammates. There is a very real possibility that neither Teare, Hocker, Hunter nor Mestler return to this team next fall. If that happens, then Brown will be relied upon to produce big points along with fellow Class of 2020 graduate Evan Holland (a recent sub-four miler).
It's incredibly tough to say just how good Brown can be in his first year with the Ducks. We haven't seen him race at the collegiate level yet and his time at Wisconsin was basically over before it even started.
That said, Coach Thomas has done an outstanding job with developing young talents. Hocker and Holland are two perfect examples of that. If that Teare-Hocker-Hunter-Mestler contingent does return, then Brown could be a potential fifth scorer, or at least a good contributing piece when it comes to depth. His ceiling could also be as high as being a top-60 finisher at the NCAA XC Championships next fall.
While I don't at all feel confident about how good he will be six months from now, I do think that he'll have some level of impact on the cross country course, potentially as a varsity scorer or a backend contributor.
Maura: Seeing Mooney eventually transition from D3 program Coast Guard Academy to Rutgers is a bit of a surprise. Rutgers hasn’t been a distance powerhouse and they don’t typically have a female finish amongst the top of the results at BIG 10 Championships. That, however, could change with Mooney transferring to the D1 level.
As an eight-time D3 All-American, she clearly has the experience competing on the national stage, but can she contend with the stars from the likes of Michigan, Michigan State or Indiana?
Mooney has modest (but strong) personal bests of 4:59 (mile), 9:27 (3k) and 16:23 (5k) and could surely see improvements upon those times when she gets to race against some of the nation’s best. It’s hard to say if Mooney could find herself on the national stage for a cross country or track championship, but I would fully expect her to see a possible sub-16 time which would be a PR in her primary event.
Michael: Rutgers is not a name that is often associated with distance prowess, but perhaps that is about to change. Kaitlyn Mooney has been a D3 contender for years now and although this move may be surprising, it makes sense.
Mooney has been a star at a smaller program and throwing her into a top-ranked D1 program could be hit or miss. At Rutgers, she will continue to be a leader on the track while being exposed to a higher level of competition in the BIG 10. I think her ceiling will be earning a spot at the NCAA Championships, whether that will be in cross country, track or both.
Maura’s prediction of a sub-16 mark for 5000 meters seems very sound, so I will second that prediction.
Garrett: Gosh, I wish I had more to offer in terms of analysis, but Michael and Maura really nailed this one. Mooney is a top-ranked talent and earning eight All-American honors at the D3 level, including a national title, leaves me to believe that she has more to give. The BIG 10 will give her plenty of competition and I could see her being an equally strong talent as someone like Brogan MacDougall.
Maura: I like the potential that George Kusche has with joining Northern Arizona. The current Nebraska Cornhusker has been putting up top times and results during his career thus far and when he joins the powerhouse distance dynasty in Flagstaff, he could make an immediate impact in their top-five on the cross country course and compete for a top spot on the track.
Kusche has national experience. However, his performances at those championships haven’t always been stellar. The regular season and conference meet typically goes extremely well for Kusche and maybe now that he will be joining a team that prepares for strong showings at NCAA Championships, things could turn around.
The newest Lumberjack has range across multiple distances and with two full years of eligibility expected to remain upon his arrival at NAU, Kusche has the potential to add to the distance legacy and maybe add All-American honors to his resume.
Michael: Kieran Lumb’s move to the University of Washington immediately stood out in my mind when I saw that he was going to be joining the Huskies. Washington has had moments of being a very good squad since Andy Powell took over their men’s program in 2018, finishing 6th at the NCAA XC Championships that year.
Since then, the Huskies’ national meet performances have been somewhat disappointing based on their roster makeup. Lumb currently holds personal bests of 4:00 in the mile, 7:45 in the 3k and 13:40 in the 5k. Lumb could be the low-stick that Washington needs and I think he could be a contender for the individual cross country title, as well as the 3k, 5k or even 10k title on the track.
Lumb’s current position at the University of British Columbia (non-NCAA) leaves him relatively unknown by many distance fans in the United States, but I think he will quickly become a major piece of Washington’s team.
Garrett: I think Andrew Kent going to Colorado will be relatively more impactful than all of these other names.
The addition of Kieran Lumb to Washington's roster is huge, but the introduction of Brian Fay, the development of Daschbach, the health of Hull, the consistency of Proctor and the rise of Isaac Green will largely be what determines just how good the Huskies are in the fall and beyond.
George Kusche is one of the biggest names in the nation, but he hasn't always been amazing on the national stage. Plus, if Grijalva and/or Ferro choose to return next year, then there wouldn't be a huge need for Kusche's potential scoring potency.
As Shea Foster, he's a stud and provides the Cowboys with yet another potential All-American. He will surely keep them on the podium, but I'm not sure if he's the missing piece that gives them a national title.
When it comes to Kent, you could certainly argue that the hopeful return of Stephen Jones and Kashon Harrison are far more important names to consider when talking about the fall cross country season. However, Kent gives this team a potential fifth scorer, especially if he can effectively translate his 7:56 (3k) and 13:47 (5k) marks to the grass. That would surely be enough to make Colorado a podium contender.
Not only that, but there's also potential that Herrera and/or Hornecker don't return to the Buffaloes' roster next fall. If that happens, then Colorado will happily add a distance talent like Andrew Kent who should at least keep the Buffaloes varsity scoring somewhat intact.
So for that reason, I'm saying that Kent will have the biggest relative impact.
Maura: Morales was a standout runner for Stanislaus State, a D2 program, and will be joining a team that needs more depth on their roster. The newest Cowgirl has run 9:35 (3k), 16:23 (5k) and 35:48 (10K) during her college career thus far, but hasn’t raced since March 2020.
It is hard to determine where Morales will fit in with the Oklahoma State women. Her times prove that she should be right near the middle of their varsity pack. She hasn’t competed at the NCAA Championships, but she at least has experience racing against some of the nation’s best.
I don’t believe that the Cowgirls will be in the conversation as a podium team next fall, even with Morales joining the team. Despite seeing a monumental rise from Taylor Roe and Gabby Hentermann, along with the return of Molly Born and Taylor Somers, all of their pieces will need to perfectly fall into place for the Cowgirls. I would at least rank the Cowgirls as a top-17 team when entering the fall of 2021.
Michael: Oklahoma State underperformed at NCAA XC Championships this past winter. The Cowgirls’ 24th place finish is not representative of what they are capable of, but they were not podium contenders going into the meet.
Morales is a very strong runner, but she will need to improve to be an All-American contender and that is what Oklahoma State really needs. Morales will add some much-needed depth to the team and her addition could make a major impact. Even so, that will not be enough to get Oklahoma State on the podium.
Based on how this year’s podium teams performed, Oklahoma State will need three or four All-Americans to make the podium and this past winter, they only had one. While the podium may be out of reach for them next fall, Oklahoma State has a lot of potential to improve from this year. I think the top-12 might not be an unrealistic place for the Cowgirls heading into the fall cross country season.
Garrett: I disagree with both Michael and Maura. I don't think Oklahoma State needs another All-American to be in the podium conversation and I don't think that Morales needs to be a superstar stud to have an impact on this team.
As we saw this past fall, Taylor Roe is a true distance running star and Molly Born proved to be a solid secondary low-stick as well. She may not have been in her 2019 form, but she was still very solid. Gabby Hentemann also proved to be a great front-runner, but simply had a bad day at the NCAA XC Championships.
With Taylor Somers significantly struggling in the fall and the backend of Oklahoma State's lineup being incredibly and young inexperienced, it was understandable why they fell to 24th place at the NCAA XC Championships back in March.
However, if Roe continues to dominate, Born replicates her 2019 form, Hentemann shakes off a bad race at the national meet and Somers returns to her 2019 level of fitness, then Oklahoma State really only needs one final runner to close out their scoring.
That's where Morales comes in.
Yes, I'll admit, a lot of things need to go right for the Cowgirls to get on the podium in the fall, but if everyone is at their best and healthy, then they will have one of the best top-four's in the country. With Morales being able to offer underrated scoring value at the fifth spot in their varsity lineup, the Oklahoma State women won't be nearly as vulnerable to a poor team performance.
In fact, I would argue that Morales may end up being the biggest reason why Oklahoma State can be in podium conversation in the fall. Whether or not they will be in contention is a different story, but on paper, they at least have the potential to reach that point.
Maura: Abbe Goldstein of Harvard recently announced that she will be transferring to New Mexico. The newest Lobo is expected to join the roster in the fall and could make an immediate impact for the team given her experience on the collegiate scene.
We haven’t gotten to see Goldstein race this year due to the Ivy League halting all competitions, but Goldstein had a major breakthrough in 2020 prior to COVID-19 cancelling the indoor and outdoor track seasons. She ran a mile PR of 4:35 and was expected to contest for her first All-American honor at the NCAA Indoor Championships.
However, even with a long layoff since her last race, she will be surrounded by a group of top-ranked ladies who will push her. Goldstein’s range between track times and cross country performances will provide more depth for an already deep Lobo team and likely take up one more national qualifying spot at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.
Michael: Jack Whetstone will be heading from Emory (D3) to Syracuse as a grad transfer in the fall. Syracuse is a much different program than they were when they won the NCAA cross country title in 2015, but they are still a power in the Northeast region.
The Orange had a disappointing showing at the ACC XC Championships in October of 2020, finishing 6th overall. This is a team that has the pieces to at least be competitive with Notre Dame (in theory) and continue to compete for top spots at the national meet, but they could use some additional depth.
Emory is a strong D3 program and Whetstone holds a rather modest personal best of 14:38 for 5k. Does this make him an immediate contributor to the Orange’s cross country hopes? Not necessarily. However, Whetstone may flourish in a higher-level program and will add depth to Syracuse’s roster. I expect that Whetstone will be able to work his way into Syracuse’s top-seven and help the Orange try to take back the ACC crown.
Garrett: Sticking with Syracuse, I think we're undervaluing what Brody Smith could bring to this team. This guy is an outstanding steeplechaser who brings a ton of scoring value to the Orange's cross country lineup. He hasn't been an All-American on the grass yet, but we've seen certain results from him which suggest that he is capable of doing just that.
I explained this in our latest Transfer Market article when highlighting Whetstone's eventual transition to Syracuse, but this is a team that could be positioned for a MUCH better season than what we saw this past winter. Here's how I broke it down...
"Aidan Tooker will look to make a return to full health, Joe Dragon and JP Trojan could return with their extended eligibility if they choose, Smith will surely certain bring valuable scoring to this team and Whetstone can solidify the backend of this lineup if he is able to translate his success to the D1 level."
At the very least, Syracuse is going to have a quietly strong contingent of scorers capable of making some noise. Now, whether or not they can consistently produce top results is a different story, but they at least have the talent to earn another top ACC finish.
Smith could be a pivotal piece who helps the Orange rally back and establish some scoring consistency for a program that has had some very up and down performances over the last few years.