The Group Chat: Oregon Twilight Preview

Distance running fans will be treated to a handful of exciting matchups in Eugene, Oregon come Friday across a variety of events. Below, our TSR crew answered a few prompts and gave their thoughts on which names we need to watch out for at the Oregon Twilight meet.

Maura: Anna Camp-Bennett, Claire Seymour, Whittni Orton.

Camp-Bennett has been on a different level this year across various distances. After just running 2:04 at the West Coast Relays and 2:03 earlier in the season, there is no doubt that she will be a favorite for the individual win. Seymour has a personal best of 2:02 from the indoor season and picked up All-American honors in the process. She may only have a 2:05 seasonal best right now, but she is not someone you should count out.

Meanwhile, Orton just dropped a mark of 4:09 for 1500 meters at the West Coast Relays and has a 2:05 PR in the 800. She has great finishing speed and could easily find herself amongst the leaders in the shortened race.

I don’t see anyone having the potential to break up the BYU contingent up-front, but there are two women that could make some noise in the middle of the pack and possibly pick up a new PR in the process. Oregon’s Aneta Konieczek has a 2:12 PR, but that should easily fall given her 4:16 1500 result from earlier in the season. Utah’s Sarah Newton has a 2:05 best and has been consistently running in the 2:07 to 2:08 range this outdoor season.

Ben: Anna Camp-Bennett, Whittni Orton, Alena Ellsworth.

It was tough not to pick Seymour, but BYU is loaded in the middle distance events. I agree with Maura that Camp-Bennett deserves to be the favorite after everything she has done this year. However, I really like Orton’s chances as she is coming off a very impressive 4:09 performance in the 1500. I’m not sure if she has the top-end speed like Camp-Bennett, Ellsworth or Seymour do, but I am confident that she will put herself in a position to take the win.

Alena Ellsworth has been consistent throughout the year, running 2:05 or quicker three times this season. Coming back to Hayward Field where she ran 2:04 and finished runner-up, I like her odds of earning a new PR this weekend.

Like Maura, it is hard to see anyone competing with the BYU women. However, if I had to pick, I would go with Sarah Newton. While she hasn’t been close to her PR so far this year, all it takes is one good race and she clearly has the talent to mix it up with the women from Provo.

Garrett: Claire Seymour, Anna Camp-Bennett, Whittni Orton

I just found it difficult not picking the BYU Cougar who peaked perfectly in the winter and earned All-American honors at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Seymour is still super talented and I think right around now is when she'll begin to peak yet again. Could Camp-Bennett get the best of her? Absolutely, but I think Seymour still has a ton more to give after running back-to-back 2:05 marks.

As for Orton, I'm a believer that running 4:09 for 1500 meters will probably translate into some pretty impressive middle distance speed for the half-mile distance. She's also entered in the 1500 this weekend, so we'll see what Orton actually does, but I think the BYU veteran is rising too fast to not be one of the Cougars' top women this weekend.

When it comes to picking a non-BYU woman who could mix things up, I think I'll go with Oregon's Mia Moerck. She's run 2:06 on multiple occasions, but I think she still has so much more to offer. She didn't have a great race at the Oregon Relays, but she also ran a new 1500 meter PR the week prior. In the right setting, I think Moerck can at least mix it up with a few of the BYU women.

Maura: I’m really liking the momentum that Notre Dame’s Sam Volez has heading into this Oregon Twilight meet this weekend. This will only be Volez’s second race since his 4th place finish in the 800 meters at the NCAA Indoor Championships. He has a PR of 1:47 and even though that matches Luis Peralta’s personal best mark, Volez has been the one with more more momentum. When you factor in his personal best of 3:44 for 1500 meters at the Raleigh Relays, Volez has some new endurance that he can use in order to hang on to a fast pace.

As for the winning time, I see Voelz running 1:47.10, but Peralta will be close behind. I actually see Oregon’s Elliott Cook taking down Wisner for 3rd place.

Ben: Maura took the words out of my mouth. I agree with her including Cook taking 3rd and beating Wisner. I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Peralta or Wisner in the 800 this year while Voelz is riding high on momentum from indoors.

Peralta is coming off of a win at the Oregon Relays over Wisner where both men ran 1:49. This was a seasonal best for Wisner while Peralta has run 1:47 this year. I anticipate a close race for the win between Voelz and Peralta, but I like the Notre Dame runner who has been more composed at the end of races this year.

As for the winning time, I predict 1:46.95. Likewise, there should be a good race for 3rd place as both Cook and Wisner have run just under 1:50 this year.

Garrett: I hate to be a broken record, but I think this is Voelz's race to lose. He's been super sharp this year, has taken down great competition, has been super consistent and has the top times that you would expect out of someone of his caliber.

Is the Notre Dame ace untouchable this weekend? No, not quite, but I think he's the most tactically sound runner in the field which is why I think he'll take down Peralta and the field. Speaking of Peralta, I have a feeling he'll try to make things fast, and he could very easily take home the victory, but his tactics haven't been amazing this year and he hasn't really popped like I thought he would.

I think those two will push each other to a mark right around the 1:46.80 to 1:47.10 range. I also think we could see Wisner dip into the 1:47's given his recent success in the 1500 meters. Yes, I'm also high on Oregon freshman Elliott Cook, but Wisner is super experienced and this is his best event. I don't see a rookie taking down Wisner.

Maura: Orton already has locked-in her regional qualifying time with a stellar 4:09 mark at the West Coast Relays just last weekend. She won’t need to run any faster than that, but with Wayment playing rabbit, could Orton be going after an NCAA-leading time? If that’s the plan, she will need to better Sage Hurta’s 4:08.38.

As for people to watch behind her, there are obviously Orton’s slew of BYU teammates. Aubrey Frentheway has been killing it in the 5k/10k while Sara Musselman and Lexy Halladay just dropped strong steeplechase performances.

With having Wayment and Orton up-front, it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of those aforementioned ladies slip into 2nd place by the end of the race.

However, if you’re looking for someone other than a Cougar, then watch out for Portland’s Laura Pellicoro. The Pilot freshman has put up some solid times this season, running 2:05 (800) and 4:22 (1500). I would expect her to drop under 4:20 this weekend given her recent 800 PR.

Ben: Is this an Olympic Trials standard chase? After running 4:09, it seems like that would be the only carrot left for her to chase. 4:06 is an ambitious target, but as we have seen throughout the last few years, when Orton is healthy, there isn’t much she can’t do. With one of the best runners in the country rumored to be pacing her, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Orton to qualify for the Olympic Trials.

Behind Orton and the rest of the BYU women, I’ll be paying attention to Oregon’s Carmela Cardama Baez. The stamina-based runner is dropping down in distance and owns a PR of 4:25 in the 1500 meters. With the women's NCAA 10k field in flux this spring, a quick 1500 that showcases the Duck’s speed could be huge for her title chances in a tactical 10k at Nationals.

Garrett: I'm with Ben. The only reason Orton would go all-out in the 1500 meters this weekend is if she was going after an OTQ mark. That could very well be the case, but her also being entered in the 800 meters makes me think that she could potentially scratch out of the 1500 meters. I suppose we'll see...

As for the other contenders, I hate to be an echo machine, but Ben once again got it right. Oregon's Cardama Baez is the main name to watch. The longer distances is obviously where she'll find the most success, but a strong mark in the 1500 meters could make us feel a little more confident about how she'll fare in future tactical settings.

Maura: This is by far the race of the weekend at Oregon and rightfully so. This will be the first time that Notre Dame’s Yared Nuguse and Oregon’s Cole Hocker go head-to-head since Hocker’s rise to the top. The NCAA 1500 meter record was set by New Mexico’s Josh Keer back in 2018, but given the way Hocker and Cooper Teare have been racing, and the resume of Nuguse, I anticipate that mark will fall this weekend.

I’ll take Hocker for the win, Nuguse for runner-up and Teare for 3rd place. Hocker’s 3:50 mile PR is five-seconds faster than Nuguse’s and the Oregon star has also run much faster in the 5k than the Notre Dame ace.

Although Nuguse is the reigning 1500 meter champion from the 2019 season, Hocker just has more momentum following his 800, 1500, mile and 5k performances over the last few months. I don’t want to bet against Nuguse, but there is more firepower coming from the Ducks.

Portland’s Cathal Doyle is in need of a good performance at the Oregon Twilight meet. The international transfer from Ireland has a 1500 PR of 3:42 and has nearly matched that mark with a time of 3:43 at the OSU High Performance Meet. That result currently ranks him at NCAA #49 on the national leaderboard, just on the outside of being an automatic regional qualifier. Doyle will need to shoot for a 3:40 or 3:41 to secure himself in the top-48 of his region.

Ben: I am struggling to come up with a prediction in terms of who will win, but I am very confident that we will see a new collegiate record run this weekend. All three men will be targeting the Olympic standard of 3:35 which is, of course, the same time as the collegiate record.

With Hocker and Teare already running 3:50 in the mile, it would be no surprise to see them run an equivalent 1500 of 3:33 or 3:34. As for Nuguse, he has risen to every challenge thrown at him in the mile or 1500 in the last few years, and I expect him to do that once again this weekend.

As for my prediction, I keep trying to push this part of the question off, but I can’t help but feel like Nuguse is going to remind everyone who the reigning 1500 champion is. I’ll go Nuguse, Hocker, Teare in an absolute barn-burner that sees them all go under 3:35. I think hundredths of a second will separate Nuguse and Hocker as we get a preview of the men's NCAA 1500 meters a month early.

Lastly, James West needs a good race this weekend. We have only seen him finish one race this season and that resulted in a 1:52 in the 800 meters. He has had pacing duties this year, and perhaps he has them again this weekend, but it is late in the season.

If he has any postseason goals, he needs to run a qualifying time. After a spectacular 2020 indoor season, it has been a bit disappointing seeing him race so little. A big run this weekend would be huge for this Oregon star as he completes his final year in Eugene.

Garrett: I'm also taking Nuguse. Hocker is so beyond good and was just a beast this past winter, but there's a reason why this Notre Dame star has been patiently waiting to return to competition after an early-season 5k. His cross country performances showed us that he has far more strength than we initially realized, something which should bode well for a potential collegiate record attempt.

If Hocker and Nuguse are close in the final 100 meters, some people would likely say that the Oregon youngster will be able to kick past Nuguse...but it's important to remember that pre-pandemic, Nuguse was considered to have the best kick in the NCAA.

In the end, I'll take the Fighting Irish superstar in a time of 3:34 while Hocker runs 3:35 low and Teare runs 3:35 high. In a field featuring Ryan Adams, Casey Comber, Charlie Hunter, Sean Dolan, James West, Talem Franco, Reed Brown and a handful of high-level professionals, I struggle to see a reality where this race isn't wildly fast.

When it comes to the athlete(s) who needs a big day, I would've said either James West or Cathal Doyle. Of course, as you've probably seen by now, both Ben and Maura took my choices. So instead of just repeating everything they said, I'll just propose that we move on.

Maura: Stephanie Cotter of Adams State will be making her debut in the 5k this weekend. Cotter has had success on the cross country course, finishing 11th in 2018 and 1st in 2019 at the D2 NCAA Championships. She also has 4:19 speed for 1500 meters. It will be interesting to see how Cotter fares in her first 5k on the track against the likes of teammate Rosin Flanagan, a 16:36 runner, and Portland’s Stella Gillman, a 16:23 athlete.

Stan Niesten of Portland has a 5k PR of 13:35 from September of 2020. This is his first year competing at Portland after transferring from a university in the Netherlands. He hasn’t matched his 5k or 10k personal bests this season, only running 14:18 at the Oregon Relays a few ago. When he is at his best, Niesten could challenge for an All-American honor, so this could be his chance to prove his abilities with a 5k time already under his belt.

Ben: Keep an eye on Stella Gillman of Portland who placed 57th at the NCAA XC Championships this past winter. She has locked-up her 10k regional qualifying time already when she ran 34:02 at the Hayward Premiere. She also ran 16:36 at the Oregon Relays. Will Gillman attempt to earn a regional time in the 5k as well? She will likely need to run around 16:18 or faster to give herself a chance.

For the men, I agree that Niesten is one to watch, although I am curious to see if anyone goes under 14:00 in this race. I believe the Pilot has the best chance of that based on his past marks, but outside of him, I like BYU's Zack Ericksen. The Cougar distance talent has run 14:10 this season and looks primed for another PR this weekend.

Garrett: I think Adams State's Kaylee Bogina is a name to watch. The D2 scene is very crowded in the 5k and 10k this season, but Bogina is an established veteran who has been outstanding in the longer distances throughout her career. Her expired eligibility in other seasons has forced her to wait on the sidelines until this spring, but I think this is the perfect field for someone like herself. It's not overwhelmingly fast, but it will certainly give her a challenge.

On the men's side, I also think Stan Niesten will be a key name to watch, but I'm eager to see what Oregon's Carter Christman has in store. He has been a respectable top-seven cross country runner in the past and owns a personal best of 14:19 for 5000 meters. I personally think he's better than that if he's at 100% and much like Bogina, this field has a perfect balance of talent which should play into a new PR for him.

Maura: Washington State’s Colton Johnsen has been on a tear since February, running personal bests in the 1500, 3k, 5k and steeplechase. He is coming off a great 8:42 win in the steeplechase at the West Coast Relays, taking down all three of the BYU athletes mentioned in this question. That was his second time improvement of the season as he began this season with a 8:57 personal best and has now taken off 15-seconds. How much lower can Johnsen go?

Winning this weekend will continue to solidify Johnsen as one of the best steeplechasers in the nation. As we already mentioned, he beat Shumway, Marsing, and Owens the other weekend, but this will be his first match-up against Oregon’s Jackson Mestler.

Ben: It has to be Shumway. After a poor race at Fresno State, he will be looking to rebound and prove that he is still a strong All-American contender. For someone as experienced as he is in the steeple, it would be surprising to see him have a second consecutive poor showing in the event. A win would be massive for his confidence, as would a quick time that challenges his 8:36 PR.

Garrett: I would've said Shumway, but he already took down David Too this season and has past instances where he's been a standout steeplechase talent. One semi-underwhelming result the other weekend shouldn't be cause for too much concern (yet).

I'll actually say that Oregon's Jackson Mestler has the most to gain. He's been a very solid distance talent in the past and has made the steeplechase his primary event. The veteran already took down a rising talent in Ky Robinson earlier this season, but a win over high-level stars like Johnsen, Shumway, Marsing and Owens would likely do wonders for his confidence and validate the idea that he can be a true All-American favorite.

Maura: Eilish Flanagan of Adams State ran 9:52 in the steeplechase at the Drake Relays a few weeks ago, a time that is nine-seconds faster than Oregon State’s Grace Fretherstonhaugh. Flanagan has the most experience in this field as she has raced in numerous NCAA D2 steeplechase finals during her career. With a 15:57 (5k) personal best from the Sound Running College Invite and a PR in the 1500 meters from late March, I’m going to have to say that Flanagan takes the win in 9:53, beating Fetherstonhaugh by six seconds.

Ben: Like Maura, I don’t think this race is necessarily conducive to running a PR, but because Flanagan is in great shape right now, we can’t rule that out. Still, I think we will see her go just under the 10:00 barrier, running a time of 9:57. Ultimately, the Adams State runner will take home the win by four seconds as Fetherstonhaugh just misses out on going sub-10:00.

Garrett: I do think this race could result in a new PR for Flanagan. Fetherstonhaugh has a solid mark of 10:03 and she'll likely want to break that barrier this weekend. Racing against someone with a 9:52 personal best means that she will surely try to hang with the pace and as a result, Flanagan will be pushed.

Does that mean that Flanagan will definitely run a new personal best? No, I'm not saying that, but I could see a scenario where Flanagan runs 9:51 and Fetherstonhaugh runs 9:56. For the sake of variety, I'll go with those two results as my official prediction.