The Group Chat: NCAA D2 Indoor Championship Preview (800 & Mile)

The NCAA D2 Indoor Championships are this week and we are PUMPED. Below, our D2 crew answered some prompts and attempted to breakdown who the title favorites and sleeper picks are for this year's indoor national meet. Let's waste no time and jump right into it...

Eric: Taryn Chapko of Grand Valley State. She is the only one in the field with a sub-2:09 800 meter time this season. Having already raced Cleyet-Merle once this season, she will know what to expect from her. Yes, almost three seconds is quite the time difference between theses two ladies’ personal bests, but if anyone has a chance, it’s the Lakers' freshman as she has performed like an experienced veteran all season long.

John: This might be a cop-out, but it’s most likely Cleyet-Merle herself. As Eric mentioned, she’s the only one in the field with a raw sub-2:09 mark this winter. If she’s as good as advertised, then she should have no issue getting through the preliminary round and should eventually take home the national title. If she's going to lose, it's probably going to be because of a tactical error she makes rather than a supreme tactical move of anyone else.

Now, with that being said, I’d probably go with Kelly Ann-Beckford and/or Chrissani May of Lincoln (Mo.) as the biggest threats. Those two are both in the same prelim heat and if they both advance to the final, then it could become very tactical, making the possibility of either taking home the title much greater than it was entering this weekend.

Nate: Alright, so this may seem out of the blue, but I’m rolling with CSU-Pueblo’s Yasmine Hernandez for this one. Hernandez has a lengthy resume in the 800 meters, one that consists of a lot of wins and an All-American finish back from the 2019 outdoor season.

Two other important things to note are that first, Hernandez has cracked the 2:10 barrier before, having run 2:09 (indoors) last year and boasts an overall career PR of 2:08. Secondly, that indoor 2:09 mark came in a runner-up finish to Cleyet-Merle last year. While the gap between Hernandez and Cleyet-Merle was almost insurmountable back then, Hernandez has since shown that she has gained some serious fitness based on her improvement in the mile this year.

The strength and experience that she haas gained since her last head-to-head battle with Cleyet-Merle makes me think that she has the best shot out of anyone in this field to pull off the upset.

Eric: Arnaud Taki has run 1:50 twice this season and was only two-tenths of a second off Zahafi’s time in the 800 meter final in the Lone Star Conference Championships. Plus, it’s the only event that he's running in this weekend. In my opinion, he’s got a very good chance to make the final.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, he should cruise through the prelims and be ready to contend with the three names listed above in the final as he has shown before that he's at least capable of doing just that.

John: Give me Seb Anthony for the lone fact that he’ll make it an honest race from the gun. During his freshman season, Anthony ran from the front to advance out of the prelims and ultimately, the same tactics failed him in the final. Flash forward to now and the Royals' middle distance ace has more experience. Despite not running as fast as he did a couple of years ago, it feels like Anthony might be flying under the radar just enough that he can make some noise again.

Nate: I think Grand Valley State's Jonathon Groendyk has pretty decent odds to win the title. Outside of the top-three, Groendyk holds the fastest raw time in the country. While he had what some may label as a "setback" at the GLIAC Championships, I think that works to his favor now that he’s already had his "off" day which he can now set behind him. Better to have that happen before Nationals than when he's actually at the national meet.

On top of that, Groendyk has made it to the big stage before, placing 10th as a freshman at this same distance, so it's not like he lacks experience. When you take all of that into consideration, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Groendyk could make some noise amongst that top-three.

Eric: Some people wouldn't classify him as a "sleeper pick", but Augustana's Austin Miller is a wild card simply because he is the only runner in this 800 field who has to run the mile just 55 minutes earlier. Despite being a top seed in his heat, the double that he is attempting makes him more of a sleeper pick.

Now, before you discredit my pick, did you know that Miller ran three events at the NSIC Championships in one day and won them all? A 4:08/1:51 double is very solid and it showcases his ability to handle the workload. Yes, maybe he got a bit more rest in between those events, but this is his last national meet. Not only that, but he barely made the national meet last year before it was canceled which will only give him more motivation to perform well at this year's championships.

On the women’s side, Delanie Dykes (NW Missouri) is my pick. She has the luxury of focusing only on the 800 meters and has been steadily improving all season long. Yes, she may be inexperienced at the national meet, but she fared well earlier in February at the Ichabod Invite against the likes of Stephanie Cotter (Adams State), Yasmine Hernandez (CSU-Pueblo) and Erin Norton (MSU-Denver) in the mile. Based on her heat, I think she's got a good draw, so don’t be surprised when she makes the final.

John: On the men’s side, I will take Elliot Slade from the Academy of Art. Slade is the last athlete who qualified for the 800 meters, but he holds a personal best of 1:48 from when he was at Villanova. Now, to be clear, I’m not saying that he will run that fast this weekend. However, Slade has only raced at one meet this season where he tripled in the 800, 4x400 and the DMR. Expect Slade to advance out of the prelims and then make some noise in the final.

On the women’s side of things, I like Michelle Kuipers from Colorado Christian. She’s just a freshman this winter, but has shown solid progress throughout this pandemic-centric season. She just won the RMAC Championships by two seconds and looks to be trending in the right direction as we head into NCAA's. I think she's an underrated name who could sneak out of the prelims.

Nate: I’m keeping an eye on Nathan Hood. I know this is another CSU-Pueblo runner, but he has consistently been near the top of the 800 meters leaderboard from the moment competition started up this year. Sure, he may be on the outside-looking-in when it comes to his seeding, but the gap between him and the front of the field isn’t that big. On top of that, Hood has won every 800 meter race this year and has been consistent with his times.

I can’t help but think that Hood hasn’t run much faster this season because he hasn’t needed to. He’s only been truly pushed once this year and while that was a very narrow win, it was the first instance this season where he's actually been contested.

I know we’re talking about making it through prelims here, but put him in a field that’s competitive top-to-bottom and I think he makes something special happen.

On the women’s side, I'm taking Serenity Andrus who has been competitive in the 800 meters all year long. However, what really caught my attention is her incredible leg speed. Andrus has ripped some fast times in the 600 meters and 400 meters, notching marks of 1:32 and 56 seconds in each event, respectively, this season.

As long as she can find the necessary finishing strength in the homestretch of the prelims, I think Andrus can throw down with anyone in a kick to the finish which will help her advance to the finals.

Eric: 50%. With it being a championship race, tactics play a huge role in determining the winner and I’m not sold on the sub-4:00 mile mark that Julian recorded earlier this season as it was heavily converted. Plus, that was the only mile race that he toed the line for all season long. Julian is undoubtedly fit, but will he have the necessary finishing speed if/when his race comes down to a kick?

I like Ryan Riddle’s chances of taking Julian as he has had multiple cracks at running the mile and can be considered a “miler” by trade. He has been shaving time off his PR all season long and is knocking on the door for a sub-four performance. It’s unlikely that it’s an honest race from the gun, so you can throw a sub-four performance out the window. However, trust Riddle's tactics as he has won two MIAA mile titles during his time at Missouri Southern.

John: I’ll say 40%. I agree with Eric that Ryan Riddle is probably his biggest threat as well. I also think that the smaller field is going to play an impact on Julian's chances. The 14 runners have condensed the field to the fastest that we’ve seen in recent years. Riddle poses the biggest threat, but Caleb Futter and James Young are two very serious title candidates as well.

Julian will have his hands full, although there’s no doubt about his overall ability as he’s proven himself on the outdoor oval as well. I know that my 40% estimation feels underwhelming, but I still think that he is the favorite in this race despite not racing the mile more than once this season.

We saw how good Julian was on the biggest stage back in 2019 when he rallied the Orediggers team to a 3rd place finish in the DMR. I’ve got a feeling it’ll be much of the same when it comes to the open mile this weekend.

Nate: I’ll give Luke Julian a 50% chance to win the title for two reasons. One, he has the only sub-four minute mile time of the field (despite it being converted). Two, he is not new to racing a field of this caliber. Julian has experience on the national stage, qualifying for the indoor mile final as a freshman. He also made an outdoor 1500 meter final which, while slightly less relevant, further serves to establish himself as a middle distance force.

As Eric pointed out, this is a championship race, meaning tactics come into play and those times on paper mean significantly less. Thus, it’s very possible that someone upends Julian.

Now, the consensus for the top threat to Julian seems to be Ryan Riddle, but I’m also inclined to say Caleb Futter. Beyond Riddle, Futter has the fastest raw time in the field and that same time puts him neck-and-neck with everybody else. Futter has been consistent all year long and has shown signs of peaking at the right time, so I don’t think that he is too much of a reach.

Eric: I have to go with the defending champ, Stephanie Cotter from Adams State. Yes, there wasn’t an NCAA Indoor Championship in 2020, but there was one in 2019 where Cotter took home the win in the mile. Add to the fact that this is her only race as opposed to her competitors (who have to race the DMR later in the evening) and I think that bodes well for the Adams State junior. She hasn’t had the season we are used to seeing from her, but she made it to the national meet and with her history of success, Cotter is always a title threat.

John: I think this is the toughest race to call this weekend. I don’t necessarily think that Stephanie Cotter or Allie Ludge have had the seasons that we expected them to. I know Cotter ran 4:46, but that was the only real race that we saw her run this season. Meanwhile, Ludge looks to be fit, but not to the level that we saw from her a year ago. In fact, teammate Klaudia O’Malley has looked good this season and there’s good enough reason to believe she can take home the title this weekend.

I should also note that three of those women are in the same preliminary heat, making the chances of all three qualifying for the final even tougher.

Oh, by the way, I should mention that there are four (!) Augustana (S.D.) women in this mile field. I think that might play a bigger role in how we see both preliminaries play out and what could happen if the majority of them make it to the finals on day two.

Nate: In regards to the title favorite for this event, I think it’s a coin toss for me between Stephanie Cotter and Layla Almasri. As Eric already pointed out, Cotter is the defending champion and has historically raced at a level that has been reached by very few, none of which are currently in this year’s field.

As for Almasri, she has won every race that she has toed the line for this year. It’s hard for me to argue against that especially given that we’ve only seen Cotter race one mile this year and has been generally pretty quiet otherwise.

Eric: Ashland’s Ian Johnson is one to watch as he had a very impressive GLIAC meet, winning the 800 meters in time of 1:51 and placing runner-up to Futter in a pretty competitive mile with a time of 4:05. Both were personal bests. In fact, he even bested GVSU’s Dennis Mbuta and Jonathan Groendyk who both qualified for the 800 meters, so you know his victory was well earned.

On the women's side, UC-Colorado Springs’ Riley McGrath is my pick to make it out of the prelims. She is fresh off of a new personal best in the mile, running a 4:49 (converted) which got her a silver medal at the RMAC Championships. She was only one second behind teammate Layla Almasri who is currently undefeated heading into the national meet. McGrath is currently running at her best and seems to have a ton of momentum, so I don’t see why she couldn’t make the final.

John: This is the moment I’ve been waiting for all season long! I love Tony Torres this weekend. The RMAC champion in the mile was the odd man out last season and has found his way into the NCAA Championships this season with some very strong efforts. This feels like a coming-out party for the Colorado Mesa junior and I think he makes a splash in the finals on day two.

As for the women, I like Meagan Schenk this weekend. She’s in a heat with her teammate PJ English and then there are the two UCCS girls with her in that same heat. With only nine qualifiers for the final this year, I think this heat will be the most tactical of the two and I think Schenk has a better shot of making the final. She has set a personal best in the mile every time out this season which tells me that she’s in good form and that her ongoing progress should carry over to this weekend.

Nate: For the men, I think Nicholas Skinner is my sleeper pick. He had a few early hiccups in the mile and then suddenly put everything together before eventually taking a win over Colorado Mines’ Vincent Workman at the Orediggers’ last home meet this year.

Skinner has a solid combination of leg-speed and strength and while neither aspect is overly impressive on its own, he’s learned how to integrate those aspects into his racing plans as the season has gone on. I think he'll continue to piece together the puzzle on the big stage.

For the women, I’m watching for Taylor Hestekin as a sleeper. She hasn’t done anything that stands out in the mile, but she has a lethal combination of speed and strength as evidenced by her history in the 800 meters and 1000 meters. She’s consistently placed highly in races all year long and has only trended in the right direction as the season has gone on, so I won’t be surprised if Hestekin pulls through and gets to the finals.