TSR Collaboration
Mar 11, 202110 min
John: I currently have two athletes from Colorado Mines who I think will finish as All-Americans this weekend. Those athletes would be Dylan Ko and Kyle Moran. I went back and forth between adding Luke Julian to this list and ultimately went against it. I think that all of the Colorado Mines athletes are going to do well this weekend, but I also think that we should take their conversions with a grain of salt. I think Ko and Moran will be in the top-eight when the race is over and they’ll ultimately have had to work hard to get there.
My reasoning for Julian being outside the top-eight this weekend is because he is going to have raced three times prior to toeing the line for the 3000 meters and I think this field is going to make everyone dip into the well and it might just be too much for him.
As for Loic Scomparin and Dillon Powell, I just chalk this up to experience. They have literally never raced anyone in this field (outside Stack and Sweeney on the grass) and they’ve never been on this stage. I’m not saying that it can’t be done, but I think the most All-Americans we see from the Orediggers this weekend is two.
Eric: I agree with John’s assessment of having the two Orediggers in Ko and Moran be All-Americans in the 3000 meters. They are the two most experienced runners and have paid their dues, per say. They have gotten over the glitz and glam of just being at the NCAA Championships and are now here to contend for a national title.
I don’t get that same feeling for Julian, Powell or Scampion as Julian is going to have run a lot before the 3k, so he will most likely just be trying to finish whereas the other two are just young and generally inexperienced.
Nate: I hate to be a broken record, but my prediction is that we’ll see two All-Americans from Colorado Mines in the 3000 meters with Dylan Ko and Kyle Moran earning the honors. I don’t doubt Luke Julian’s ability to be added to this list, but I also believe that he’ll be hard-pressed to be an All-American with the rest of his workload this weekend.
He’ll have already run three fast miles before toeing the line for the 3k. It’s just hard for me to sign off on him still being able to overcome that against such a quality field, especially given that it’s at the backend of his racing schedule for the weekend.
I didn’t ignore Loic Scomparin and Dillon Powell, either. It’s certainly not impossible for either of them to bring home an All-American finish, I just don’t think it’s likely given their experience competing.
While experience isn’t everything, this is the big stage we’re talking about. They haven’t left Steinhauer Fieldhouse for a race once this year and while they’ve done amazing things on their home turf, who’s to say how they’ll do away from home?
John: I think that Allie Ludge is likely the biggest threat to Ritter, solely because she’s the only other one in the field who has run sub-9:20 for 3000 meters. Although, even if Ludge runs her personal best of 9:18, I don’t know if that is going to enough to take down Ritter.
I also think that Lauren Bailey has just as good of a chance as Ludge does to pull off the upset given her fitness level in the 5k. The kicker here is that Ludge will likely have raced three times before she races in the 3000 meters. Meanwhile, Ritter will be completely fresh and Bailey will have only run in the 5k from the night before.
Ritter will likely push the pace and it’ll be up to someone else to try and take the speed out of her legs. That person is most likely Bailey, and if it comes down to a kick, then Ritter has a leg-up on everyone else as she holds the fastest mile time of anyone in the field this season.
It’s a tall task, but there are certainly women in this race who should be up to the task.
Eric: My first thought is Zoe Baker of Colorado Mines, but then she’ll have run the 5k and (maybe?) the DMR, so her legs may be fried by the time the 3k rolls around. So, how about a dark horse pick that nobody is thinking about? I'll say Grand Valley State’s Hannah Roeske.
Similar to Ritter, this is Roeske's only event this weekend and she has extensive experience on the D3 national stage. Not only that, but her season best time is only four seconds off from Allie Ludge’s seasonal best. The newest GVSU ace has made a huge jump in fitness compared to her days at Wheaton (Illinois) and has looked like a completely different runner...so, why not Hannah Roeske?
Nate: My pick here is Indianapolis’s Lauren Bailey. She will have fresher legs compared to Ritter’s other big threats, including GVSU’s Allie Ludge.
Ludge will have raced the mile prelims, the DMR and likely the mile finals before lining up for the 3k, so she will have a lot on her legs already. Bailey, meanwhile, will have only contested the 5k the night before, making the 3k a reasonable double to make.
Bailey also has experience competing on this stage before and has historically run at a high level. She’s also in great shape given that her 3k and 5k races from a month ago put her among the top-three in both events. Based on all of that information, I think it's possible that she could potentially take down Ritter.
John: This is a great question. All year long, it has felt like the 5k title belongs to Noble after he set the D2 record in the event. No one in this field is closer than nine seconds to his collegiate record mark, and that's a converted time from Kyle Moran (Colorado Mines). The next closest raw time is from CarLee Stimpfel who has run 13:51. Truthfully, it doesn't feel like either runner is going to take down Noble this coming weekend if you ask me.
I think the greatest threat to Noble is Charlie Sweeney (Western Colorado). We’ve seen what Sweeney can do on the biggest stage and it’s been rather clear that he’s the fittest he’s ever been up to this point in his life. He runs hard from the gun and isn’t afraid to stick his nose in the middle of things. I certainly think he can contend with Noble this weekend.
Eric: I think this is CarLee Stimpfel’s race at these championships. He will be fresh and has the confidence of having already won a big 5k race earlier in the year. He won the “Big Meet” hosted by Grand Valley State in a new personal best of 13:51 and beat a handful of very worthy competitors in Tanner Chada and Issac Harding from Grand Valley State, as well as Jan Lucas Becker from Queens.
And if that wasn't enough, Stimpfel followed that up with a win in the 3000 meters at the GLIAC Championships. The sophomore from Saginaw Valley State is hot right now and I wouldn't count him out from potentially taking down Noble.
Nate: The greatest threat to rain on Christian Noble’s parade is GVSU’s Tanner Chada in my opinion. Chada has the second-fastest raw time over 5000 meters out of the runners not named Christian Noble, and the margin between him and the raw mark ahead of his is razor thin, falling behind Saginaw Valley’s CarLee Stimpfel by a literal second. I’m giving the edge to Chada as the biggest threat for two reasons.
The first is his experience. Chada has stepped onto the national stage on multiple occasions throughout his collegiate career, including a trip to the indoor national meet in 2019 for this very same event.
My second reason is his leg-speed. Chada clocked a 4:03 mile earlier in the year. In theory, he should have a good kick and if this becomes a tactical affair, then that kick will be all the more lethal. If it’s an honest race, Chada's seed time already puts him in the mix.
John: This is also one of the tougher questions going into the weekend. If this race goes tactical, it certainly feels like anyone in the field could take home the win if they are close enough to the lead group.
There are multiple women who have run faster than 5:00 for a mile, the usual indicator of who might win a tactical distance race. I still think that if the race becomes tactical, then Lauren Bailey has the best chance of winning the national title. Bailey has the fastest raw time in the country this season, and if the race does indeed start slow, then she probably has the best chance at winding the race up in terms of pace and holding on the longest.
Eric: Interesting question: a fresh Zoe Baker vs a fresh Lauren Bailey, who wins? I’ll take Baker as she has put her name up there with the best of them all season long. Yes, she has mostly run these times with very little competition, but she proved just how good she was at the RMAC XC Championships this past fall, winning the whole darn thing.
Baker is going to show up fit and ready to race this weekend. She’s also got a 4:50 converted mile, so you know she’s got some speed in those legs. I wouldn't count out Baker from winning NCAA gold.
Nate: I feel like this race is Lauren Bailey’s to lose. However, if it turns into a tactics contest, then someone I’m keeping an eye on is Jessica Gockley from Grand Valley State.
Gockley has notched personal bests in the mile and 3000 meters this year. The GVSU senior ran a raw mile time of 4:55 earlier in the year which is a good indication of leg-speed if she needs it. Assuming that she has built on that time with more speed work, she could prove to be lethal to anyone at the tail-end of a drawn-out 5k.
That said, Lauren Bailey still has the best flat-out time overall in the field by a good margin and has shown she’s in great shape. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bailey takes home the crown regardless of how this race plays out. She’s shown us that she’s just that good and that’s based on results from a month ago, so it’s likely that Bailey has only gotten better.
John: I really like Pittsburg State this weekend. They come in as the seventh seed and their roster includes Connor Southard and Mason Strader. Both men are underrated talents when it comes to the mile.
Strader has qualified for the individual mile where we will see him toe the line just 90 minutes prior. As for Southard, he ran 4:07 earlier this season and that was a four-second personal best. I think the combination of those two gives this team enough firepower to help propel them into the top-six DMR teams come Friday.
Eric: Adams State is a team that has been overshadowed this year due to their lack of racing and not running anything crazy fast when they have raced. With that being said, the Grizzlies' DMR has a chance to make some serious noise on Friday.
They have a solid team made up of David Cardenas, Carson Bix, Jonah Vigil and Andrew O’Keefe who will give this group a perfect balance of youth and experience. O’Keefe and Cardenas will have raced the mile beforehand, but a lot of teams have people doubling back from the mile to the DMR.
Coming down from 7,000 feet, they should be mentally tough and ready for the challenge as I could see them being a top-three relay if everyone runs a perfect leg.
Nate: I feel like it’d be a crime not to mention Colorado Mines for this section. While their 400 and 800 legs are pretty young and not the most experienced, they’re still solid and should be able to get the job done.
Mines' also brings 1200 and 1600 legs that I’m sure most teams would love having in Vincent Workman and Luke Julian. Both men are right around the four-minute barrier in the mile with one breaking it via conversion (Julian) and the other floating just above it, also by conversion (Workman).
They’re also both seasoned veterans who, at this point, are on the big stage to throw down, not just to be there. With those guys on this relay, I feel very confident that the Orediggers will outperform their seed.
John: I think this might be the easiest answer I’ve had this week! The Vikings of Augustana are more than likely to finish higher than their incoming seventh seed. On their entered team at the moment, they have three milers in each of their distance legs. It just so happens that all three of those athletes will also be racing the individual mile earlier in the day, so things could get a bit tricky.
However, after seeing the performances that PJ English, Callin Naddy and Nicolette Schmidt had at their conference championship meet, the confidence I have in this team only feels right. They'll outperform their seed.
Eric: The Mountain Lions of Colorado Springs come in with the fifth-fastest time in the field. Considering they have both Riley McGrath and Layla Almasri running, I do think they have a chance to be better than 5th place.
The doubters will say that both women will have run the mile beforehand, but they will have close to an hour and a half to rest up. Plus, they will have gotten their first race of the weekend out of the way, so the pre-race jitters will be gone.
Nate: I’m looking at Black Hills State to outperform their seed here. They’ll only have one runner in Xiomara Robinson who will be doubling back from an event earlier in the day. While that brings into question pre-race nerves for those who didn’t race, I also think they’ll be able to shake that off and fully reap the benefits of fresh legs.
I imagine that Black Hills State has to be pretty invested in their DMR here, so I doubt they’ll waste the chance. And with other teams ahead of them doubling runners back, I think the odds are in their favor.
Black Hill State’s DMR team features some solid runners. Robinson goes without saying as she’ll contest the mile earlier in the day, but Ruby Lindquist has also cracked the five-minute barrier in the mile while Taylor Lundquist has regularly taken on multiple races per meet for the Yellow Jackets.