The Group Chat: NCAA D1 Indoor Championship Preview (800 & Mile)

With the NCAA Indoor Championships fast approaching, it was only natural that we dove into the entries and gave you a preview for our first official national meet in roughly year.

Unfortunately, due to the time constraints of covering an entirely separate national meet (cross country), we weren't able to do event-by-event coverage of this year's indoor meet. We were, however, able to highlight a handful of names and offer our thoughts on what we could see this weekend in Fayetteville, Arkansas.

So with that, let's jump right into it.

Today, we're highlighting the men's and women's 800 meters and mile...

Ben: It comes down to two names: Laurie Barton (Clemson) and Lindsey Butler (Virginia Tech). Butler took the win at the ACC Indoor Championships the other week over Barton, but that race came down to the absolute wire. Both women ran 2:01 high in that race which is the fastest time anyone in this field has run this season (we obviously wouldn't be saying that if Mu was racing). Right now, Butler has to be the favorite by the slimmest of margins because of her victory at the ACC meet.

Maura: I’m really liking the momentum that Lindsey Butler of Virginia Tech has going into the NCAA Championships. Even though she is only a sophomore and has yet to compete on the national stage, her recent 2:01 at the ACC Indoor Championships sets her up nicely for another big performance. Knowing that Butler has already beaten Clemson’s Laurie Barton, as well as a few others entered in this field, has the Hokie trending in the right direction.

Sam: I think it’s fair to say that there is no national title favorite at this point. As both Ben and Maura have mentioned, Butler and Barton have put on some strong races over the past couple of weeks and that certainly places them as contenders for the title.

However, Claire Seymour of BYU was someone who recently burst onto the scene with a huge jump from 2:05 to 2:02 and is essentially 0.2 seconds “back” from Butler and Barton. You also have to factor in Aaliyah Miller of Baylor. She is a true veteran in this event and I like her experience heading into this weekend. All of that said, there are six women who are all within about a second of one another up front. Without Mu, this is anyone’s race.

Garrett: I'm going with Sam here. I know Butler and Barton have the two fastest times in this field, but Butler, as well as the aforementioned Claire Seymour, are somewhat inexperienced on these kind of stages. Plus, there are other talents like Aaliyah Miller who could realistically take down all of those women. Heck, I even like Gabrielle Wilkinson who has made a ton of progress this year and has peaked at the right time. The same can be said for Shafiqua Maloney.

I'm also in agreement with Sam that there are roughly six women who could come away with this national title. Based on what I have seen on paper throughout the entirety of this season, I think I'm leaning towards Barton or Miller as my national title favorites.

Ben: I’ll go with Luis Peralta. The Oregon Duck has run well this year and has held his own on the indoor oval over the last two years. His smaller frame and height are an advantage at the indoor national meet where positioning and acceleration are key. I don’t see him taking down that top trio, but if anyone does, then it's going to be Peralta.

Maura: I like Ben’s pick of Peralta, but I think Indiana’s Cooper Williams has a good chance of coming out on top. Williams has competed at three national meets on the track throughout his career and has finished 5th place (twice) in the 800 meters. He clearly has the experience, has been super consistent during his time as a Hoosier and with a career best of 1:46, I think he is very capable of competing with the top men.

Sam: Well, once again, both Maura and Ben have taken my picks…but I do agree that either Peralta or Williams may be the ones who break things up. I’d maybe argue with Ben on the size point, as I think a bigger frame helps take up that valuable space for middle distance running. That said, Peralta does have great acceleration which is huge on the indoor oval, especially in a meet like this.

As Maura noted, Williams is a seasoned veteran in this event. Indoor races tends to be chaotic, but having the experience of handling the tactics and rounds could be the difference maker that lands Williams in the top-three.

Garrett: Gosh, this is tough to say. On paper, Williams is the safe pick for this question, but he has had some postseason woes in the past (mainly at his conference meet) and I'm not sure I see him pulling off a title upset. The same can be said for Peralta who I think is one year away from truly putting himself in contention. After all, we've only seen him run one 800 meter race this year.

Instead, I think I'll go with Finley McLear. I have loved what we have seen from the Miami (Ohio) ace this winter. In past seasons, he has run 1:48 multiple times. However, he has now run 1:47 (both raw and converted) on more than one occasion and is taking down underrated talents on a consistent basis this year. McLear has taken home wins this winter over the men from District Track Club, D2 star Dennis Mbuta and fellow teammate Sean Torpy.

Are those superstar names? No, not necessarily, but the RedHawk standout has all of the momentum in the world right now and I really think that if someone is going to pull off the upset, it's going to be him.

Ben: Missouri's Christopher Conrad did not have his best run at the SEC Championships, but has held his own against strong competition throughout the regular season. One bad performance doesn’t mean the Tiger will be unable to qualify for finals.

Villanova's McKenna Keegan has won her last two races and that's not something that should be overlooked. The veteran seems to be peaking at the perfect time and could be a major challenger this weekend. The Wildcat ace enters the national meet after running 55.2 for 400 meters which makes me feel good about her ability to kick at the end of her prelim.

Maura: Ackeen Colley of Western Illinois hasn’t had the chance to compete against some of the top men in this field this season. He was a standout at Oklahoma prior to transferring and is quickly rounding into one of the nation’s best at a mid-major university. If Colley was able to peak at his conference meet, will he able to carry that success with him to Fayetteville? I think so.

Wake Forest's Aleeya Hutchins recently placed 5th at the ACC Indoor Championships with a personal best time of 2:04. The sophomore has seen plenty of top competitors this season and has had a chance to gain experience racing against the best. The same can be said during the 2020 indoor track season as Hutchins slowly gained momentum throughout last winter. She is one of the better true talents in this field despite her lower seed.

Sam: I’ll also give some love to the Summit League champion and say that Ackeen Colley will make the finals. He has been running great all year and it’s not uncommon to see a mid-major runner have a big performance when their level of competition jumps up.

On the women’s side, how about Brooke Fazio? The Richmond senior has been having a strong season and has won all her races this winter with the exception of the 800 meters at Camel City. Her personal best is only 2:05.00, but in a tactical prelim round, it just might be enough, especially for someone with her experience.

Garrett: I really like Baylor Franklin. I know he faltered at the SEC Championships in this event, but he took down teammate Everett Smulders, as well as fellow national qualifier Christopher Conrad, earlier this year. He's also run 3:59 for the mile and I think that strength will help him effectively navigate through the rounds. It's typical for at least one top seed to struggle in the prelims, so if any non top-eight seed is going to get to the finals, I think it's going to be Franklin.

As for the women, I'm going to take Iowa's Mallory King. If she had just slightly better timed her move at the BIG 10 Indoor Championships, we would likely be talking about her as a conference champion in this event.

Despite being one of the last seeds in this field, I actually think her willingness to put herself in front of races will benefit her. I also think that the prelim heat that King is in is a perfect draw for her and it plays into her race tactics fairly well. I could see the Iowa standout getting an automatic qualifying spot to the finals out of her heat.

I would have picked Duke's Leigh Torino for this category as I am a huge fan of what she has done this season. However, she got stuck in a brutal prelim heat. So, for that reason, I went with King.

Maura: I like the potential of BYU’s Lucas Bons. The freshman dropped a massive 3:55 mile time at the Husky Classic, finishing only 0.22 seconds behind mile national title contender Sam Tanner. Bons served a church mission from 2018 to 2020 and has clearly rounded into All-American shape quickly after returning.

Sam: It’s a toss-up between Bons and Kipsang. We just saw Bons run 3:55 and shortly after, Kipsang split 3:51 (for 1600 meters) on the DMR. It’s hard to envision both of these men missing the final given their talent levels, so barring any disastrous tactical error, both should earn All-American honors.

Ben: To be honest, I think Kipsang is the easy answer here. Like Sam mentioned, his 3:51 split puts him closer to being a title contender than just an All-American contender. The Alabama runner is obviously running in his first NCAA Championship, so he might not be ready tactically, but when you are as fit as he is, the tactics really don't matter as much.

Garrett: I'm going to zig while everyone else zags. I'm going to take Yusuf Bizimana. Yes, I know Kipsang has been incredibly strong this season given his ability to consistently drop elite mile times. However, I do question how he'll handle a tactical race, both in the prelims and in the finals. Does that mean that I expect Kipsang to run poorly this weekend? No, not at all, but I'm not entirely sure how he'll handle a tactical mile race.

Bizimana, meanwhile, has run 1:48 for 800 meters this season in addition to his 3:57 mile. He also owns a personal best of 1:46 in the half-mile, took down Takieddine Hedeilli in a tactical mile race at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships and nearly upset Jason Gomez in the 800 meters at that same BIG 12 meet. On paper, he has fast times, has refined speed and boasts top-notch race tactics which should put him on the podium this weekend.

Maura: I’m going to say 20%. Both Hurta's and Gear’s entry times of 4:31 lead the rest of the field by four seconds. Hurta hasn’t been in a tactical race this season, but she won her 800 and mile races by considerable margins. Gear, on the other hand, has had the benefit of getting to hone her racing skills plenty of times this season against top-tier competition. I don’t see Hurta or Gear running away from this field, but I believe that they are the only two in the conversation for the national title.

Sam: 20.62%. Realistically, this should come down to Hurta versus Gear, where I’d give Hurta about a 41% chance and Gear a 37% chance. These two are the fastest seeds coming in by a wide margin and both have some experience in tactical fields. Hurta gets a bit of an edge thanks to her prowess in the 800 meters which should favor her closing speed over Gear if (and when) things turn tactical.

Ben: I’m going to go a bit lower and be a little less precise than Sam. I'll say 15%. The mile is a crazy event and plenty of things could happen to shake up the race, but Hurta and Gear are so clearly the class of this field. There are plenty of other women who could have contended if they entered the mile, but I just don’t see anyone upsetting either of these women who have run quick times, are tactically sound and have great finishing kicks.

Garrett: I guess I'm going lower than everyone else. I'll say 10%, although my reasoning is largely the same as what Maura, Ben and Sam said. Hurta and Gear are just so much better than the rest of this field. They're more experienced and have all of the tactical tools necessary to win the national title. Having four seconds over the rest of this field is a lot, especially when we're talking about who will win NCAA gold.

Maura: Duncan Hamilton of Montana State ran his NCAA entry time of 3:57 at altitude in what was essentially a breakout performance. Hamilton will be racing in his first national meet and although he has yet to actually break 4:00 in the mile without a conversion, we have seen men without true sub-four performances shock the field (i.e. Geordie Beamish in 2019).

Simone Plourde of BYU may only be a freshman, but she is racing like a veteran. Twice this indoor season, Plourde has run sub-4:40 and was finishing well amongst her fellow teammates, experienced Washington women and the occasional professional runner. With a few other BYU teammates entered in the mile, Simone should be well-guided to the mile final.

Sam: This might be a stretch for a “sleeper”, but Katie Rainsberger should always be mentioned even if her season hasn’t unfolded the way we were expecting it to. The Washington senior certainly hasn’t been at her best this winter, but she has qualified for the NCAA Championships and now is starting with a clean slate. Sure, she might not win the whole thing, but she has run 4:11 for 1500 meters. I like her chances of making the final.

Adam Fogg is a name most haven’t heard, but he could be one to watch in the men’s race. He has run 3:59 twice this year, including the first-ever sub-four mile on South Dakota soil. The Drake junior is carrying a lot of positive momentum into the national meet and could sneak himself into the final.

Ben: I agree with Maura on Duncan Hamilton. Not only did he run a converted 3:57, but he also just finished 2nd at the BIG Sky XC Championships, beating plenty of really good runners from Northern Arizona and Southern Utah. He is on a roll right now and I anticipate him to continue his rise to the top in the mile.

For the women, I like Isabel Van Camp’s chances of making it to the final. She is coming off a 5th place run at the SEC Championships in the mile against many of the same women that she'll see this weekend. She will be on her home track and she just earned a new personal best during the SEC prelims. I think she is on an upward trajectory that will land her in the finals at the NCAA Championships.

Garrett: I like the Duncan Hamilton pick, but is he really a sleeper if he's the seventh overall seed and everyone is choosing him? I suppose not, so I'll instead go with Sean Dolan from Villanova. I would have chosen Zach Stallings from Washington State, but his prelim heat is intense and could end up being incredibly fast.

I like Dolan a lot because I think his prelim heat is going to be tactical and I don't have a ton of confidence in the top seeds of his heat. Why? Allow me to explain...

Suliman has been great this season, but he has a history of struggling at the NCAA Championships on the track. Kusche is clearly a top talent, but he did not look great at the BIG 10 Indoor Championships, failing to take home a win despite being the favorite in both the mile and the 3k. The same can be said for Tom Dodd who finished 6th in that BIG 10 mile final.

Reed Brown is clearly one of best milers in the NCAA with his 3:56 personal best, but in the past, he hasn't been great at national meets. He has earned only one All-American honor (8th place) in his three national appearances on the track and that was when he was a freshman.

Do I think all of those names are going to struggle? No, definitely not, but it's hard to overlook history and Dolan is coming off of a mile race at Camel City where he took down top names like Aaron Wier and Athanas Kioko. All things considered, I think he'll make it to the finals.

As for the women, give me Imogen Barrett to get out of the prelims. I think she is super underrated and has been for a while now. She lost to Gear, Tyynismaa and Gregory at the SEC Indoor Championships to settle for a 4th place finish, but those three women are some off the best milers in the NCAA. Not only that, but Barrett produced a clutch 4:38 mile personal best after running 4:38 in the prelims and a 4:39 earlier in the year.

Not only is she progressing and peaking at the right time, but her prelim heat is truthfully nothing that she can't handle. Krissy Gear and Lotte Black are two established veterans, but it's basically a guessing game as to who who will qualify for the finals after that.

Rainsberger hasn't been amazing this year, BYU's Hanson and Hunter are somewhat inexperienced when racing against collegiate competition* (not from their own team) and other women like Leather and Herman just haven't shown me enough to say that they are better than Barrett.

I can't remember the last time I felt this confident about a miler seeded in the bottom-half of the overall field. You should just go ahead and pencil-in Barrett to the finals.

*In fairness to Hanson and Hunter, they did race a few professionals earlier this year.