The Group Chat: NCAA D1 Indoor Championship Preview (3k, 5k, DMR)

Maura: I don’t see Hocker competing on Oregon DMR's this weekend. The Ducks don’t need Hocker in their lineup to contend for the national title. Charlie Hunter could easily take the 1200 meter leg while Luis Peralta and Cooper Teare will most likely take the 800 meter and 1600 meter legs, respectively. On paper, that group should be more than enough to give them NCAA gold.

Hocker will be a busy guy this weekend with the mile and 3000 meters. I believe the sophomore is a top-three contender in the 3k even with the mile already under his legs. Hocker has done well doubling back in events this indoor season and clearly has the endurance to keep up with the nation's best.

Sam: I agree with Maura that doubling back in the DMR doesn’t make much sense. They already set the collegiate record, so outside of winning the title, there isn’t an added bonus of running extremely fast. Swapping Hunter for Hocker and then having Hunter and Peralta run some combo of the 1200/800 legs should be enough to get Oregon the win, especially with Teare on the anchor.

In the 3k, Hocker should be a top-five runner and realistically in the top-three. He has the closing speed for a tactical finish and he’s also run extremely fast flat-out in the event. Sure, the mile final could put a little more fatigue in his legs, but most of the guys in the field will also be doubling back from another event as well.

Ben: I won’t add much to what Maura and Sam have said, but I agree that there is no reason for Hocker to run in the DMR. The Ducks will easily win the title without him and it would be more beneficial to keep him fresh for the mile and 3k.

That said, I'm not quite as optimistic as Maura and Sam are about his 3k chances. I do see Hocker as a top-five finisher, but I would be surprised to see him within the top-three. Teammate Cooper Teare is the favorite and I like Mario Garcia Romo to finish in the top-three as well. Perhaps Hocker will be able to beat out the likes of Amon Kemboi and Antonio Lopez Segura after running the mile, but I think that will be a tall task.

Michael: I would be very surprised to see Hocker line-up for the DMR. With the mile final and the 3k the next day, there’s not much of a reason to put the extra fatigue on him with the other options that Oregon has for their DMR.

Cole Hocker will enter the 3k in a very unique position. He’s a title contender in the mile and will have just under an hour after the mile finals to rest and prepare for the 3k. This setup is far from ideal for Hocker, but having Cooper Teare in the 3k with him should be a massive help.

With Teare as the favorite for the event, we likely won’t see him working up front in the first half of the race, but Hocker will be able to use his fresher teammate as a bit of a guide. Teare has more championship experience than Hocker, so if Hocker can just hang onto Teare, then I think he can finish 2nd or 3rd.

Sam: Allie Schadler of Washington. I almost went with Olivia Hoj, but Schadler’s mile performance from a couple of weeks ago is the difference maker. In that race, Schadler was right on the heels of Wayment and ended up running a time of 4:31.

Closing speed will be a necessity in this race and both women -- Schadler and Wayment, that is -- have proved that they have it. If Schadler can utilize her race tactics more effectively than Wayment can, then there’s a chance that she pulls off the upset.

Maura: I'll take BYU’s Olivia Hoj. She has posted times similar to what we have seen out of Wayment this season, running personal bests of 2:08 (800), 4:31 (mile) and 8:56 (3k). The Cougar distance ace has been right with Wayment and Washington’s Allie Schadler in the mile and 3k this winter and is plenty familiar with how they compete.

If Hoj can continue her consistency and show off her 2:08 closing speed, then her first All-American honor and individual NCAA title could be earned.

Ben: I really like Lauren Gregory’s chances. Like Schadler and Hoj, she should have strong finishing speed based on her quick mile time and she has been very consistent throughout this indoor season. She knows the Arkansas track as well as anyone and her experience at NCAA Indoor Championships will be a big help.

Michael: How about Joyce Kimeli? She will be doubling off of the 5k which is not a factor for some of the other big contenders, but we’ve seen top athletes successfully come back and run well on the second day of competition.

Kimeli recently won both the 3k and the 5k at the SEC Indoor Championships, so she is carrying good momentum into this meet and has already executed one successful double this season. Despite her successes, I think Kimeli continues to be underrated and will be a big threat to win the 3000 meters this weekend.

Maura: Colorado State’s Eric Hamer. The redshirt senior ran two 5k races this season, resulting in an altitude-converted 13:36 at Colorado Mines and a true 13:37 at Iowa State. Talk about consistency. He even won that Iowa State Classic 5k by an 11-second margin over a respectable field. Hamer will be making his indoor national meet debut, but he does have a cross country All-American honor to his name, so the experience is there for this Ram standout.

Sam: Amon Kemboi. The Arkansas senior seems to always be in the mix of contenders, but his fearless racing might be enough to upset Kiptoo.

Kemboi is set to go with whatever happens in this race. He has a personal best of 13:33 over 5000 meters, but also just ran 3:58 in the mile, showing that he has the legs to cover late moves (if he's in a good enough position). I expect that Kemboi will put himself in the race from the gun and is willing to cover any moves made to give himself a chance at the elusive national title.

Ben: Amon Kemboi or Adriaan Wildschutt. Both men went head-to-head with each other in the 5000 meters earlier this season with Kemboi narrowly claiming the victory. They are both running well coming into this meet and both will be willing to go with the hot pace that Kiptoo will surely set from the start.

Michael: There are a lot of men in this field who could shake things up, but one runner who may be able to take down Kiptoo is Indiana’s Ben Veatch. The Hoosier veteran is fresh off of a 3k/5k double win at the BIG 10 Indoor Championships and has been slowly climbing the NCAA ranks over the last few years to the point where he is now one of the best.

Veatch runs well in tactical fields, which this race could turn into with some guys wanting to save their legs a bit for the 3000 meters the next day, the cross country national meet a few days later or to simply await a fast finish.

Sam: It’s hard to bet against Katie Izzo, but I think Elly Henes of NC State is an interesting prospect here. The redshirt senior has a personal best of 4:18 for 1500 meters and her 5k mark is fast enough where she should be a contender no matter the style of racing. She also has substantial national meet experience which never hurts.

Maura: Sticking with the NC State women, I’m going to go with Hannah Steelman. Since joining the Wolfpack this year, Steelman has been impressive. She is coming into NCAA’s with a 15:47 (5k) personal best which resulted in a win over teammate Elly Henes at the Virginia Beach Invitational. She later ran 9:05 (3k) to place 2nd at the Camel City Invitational.

Steelman has competed at numerous national meets between cross country and track and has picked up multiple All-American honors. Steelman has looked great this regular season and if she is someone who peaks in the postseason, then she could be a sleeper title contender.

Ben: I also like Elly Henes, but I’m going to go with Joyce Kimeli. Her wins against Izzo were very impressive at the SEC Indoor Championships and those wins showed us that she can go head-to-head with the top women in the country and still come out victorious. She was under the radar throughout most of the season and ran 4:38 in the mile without much fanfare. The Auburn Tiger is on a roll right now and I think her season could end with at least one NCAA title.

Michael: I think it has to be Katie Izzo. She has the fastest personal best in the field at 15:13, but has also run 4:34 in the mile. The Arkansas star is one of the best all-around athletes in the NCAA right now and will be able to contend for the title in any style of race. If it becomes tactical, Izzo will be tough to beat. She may have recently lost to Joyce Kimeli in both distance events at the SEC Championships, but I’m giving Izzo the edge in a purely tactical race. When you look at the SEC Championship results, that race was fairly honest and not indicative of a tactical setting.

Maura: The Texas Tech men enter the indoor national meet with the eighth-best seed time. Although their 9:32 result was altitude-converted, the Red Raiders put together that performance in a solo effort.

Takieddine Hedeilli will be key in this event on the 1600 meter leg when he potentially has to face the likes of Cooper Teare, Eluid Kipsang, Mario Garcia Romo and Amon Kemboi. However, his 3:56 mile PR from earlier in the year will surely come in handy. The Texas Tech men, aside from Hedeilli, will enter this race with fresh legs to hopefully carry them to an All-American honor.

Sam: Alabama. I’m making this call based solely on Eliud Kipsang’s monster performance at the SEC meet and thinking that he can do something similar this weekend. The Crimson Tide come in as the seventh seed, but beating UNC, Virginia Tech and Ole Miss are all possibilities with a strong anchor leg.

This is under the impression that Kipsang will run the DMR after his mile prelim, although he could certainly opt out. In that case, Alabama likely finishes lower than 7th place.

Ben: I’m with Sam on Alabama. If Kipsang is in the race, then anything can happen for the Crimson Tide. I also like the Tennessee men. All of their runners will be fresh coming into the DMR and I think they could surprise some teams who are having men double back from the 800 or the mile.

Alex Crigger is a solid mile leg and Joe Hoots ran the second-fastest 800 leg at the SEC Indoor Championships earlier this year (1:48.8). If Crigger can run under 4:00 in the mile leg, then I think the Volunteers could grab a top-eight finish.

Michael: I agree that it has to be Alabama. Assuming Kipsang is anchoring their team, the Crimson Tide have to be a podium threat. I also think that the Indiana men can significantly outperform their eleventh seed.

Cooper Williams will provide a strong leg, likely on the 800 or possibly the opening 1200 meter leg. Matthew Schadler is a 3:58 miler which may look rather unimpressive when compared to some other guys in this race, but he will be able to make a big difference for the Hoosiers.

I think Indiana has potential to finish in the top-half of this field despite their seed.

Maura: The Michigan women are entering NCAA’s as the last seed in this field. The Wolverines might not be a team that could win the DMR national title, but they could surely find themselves amongst the top-eight.

Alice Hill, Ziyah Holman and Katelynne Hart make a good team. They just need a reliable 800 meter leg. Hill was a member of Michigan’s 6th place DMR team at the 2019 indoor national meet and knows how important a solid lead-off leg is to get the momentum going.

Holman has produced stellar relay legs throughout the course of this indoor season. Hart, although only a freshman, has produced respectable times in the mile and 3k and is a solid closer for this team.

If the Michigan women are able to replicate their close 2nd place finish at the BIG 10 Indoor Championships, then they will be in contention to challenge the top DMR teams in this field.

Sam: Keeping with my theme, I’ll also take the seventh-seeded BYU Cougars. It might sound shocking, but I’m convinced that this team could contend for a national title. The Ellsworth sisters provide a very strong middle distance combo while top-ranked talents like Olivia Hoj, Courtney Wayment, Claire Seymour and Kate Hunter all have a chance to toe the line for this relay.

That entire group qualified in open events which speaks to how good they are individually. Arkansas will be the favorite in this event (if they run a full lineup with their best names), but BYU should be a strong contender right behind them.

Ben: The Alabama women will outperform their fifth seed. With Amaris Tyynismaa sitting out of the mile, she enters the DMR fresh and will be one of the best, if not the best, anchor leg in the field. Jami Reed also enters with a PR of 4:42 in the mile and ran a 3:23 split for 1200 meters at the SEC Championships. Overall, this is a team that has already run a fast time this season (10:59). They should be fresh and ready to roll in Fayetteville.

Michael: The Virginia Tech women come in as the ninth seed, but could definitely perform much better than that. In their qualifying race, 2:05 800 meter runner Grace Boone led off with Hannah Ballowe (2:07 personal best) running the 800 leg. Ballowe has the faster mile of the pair (4:44 vs 4:48), so she may be better suited for the 1200 meter leg.

Lindsey Butler was the one who anchored that relay. She has run 2:01 for 800 meters and 4:40 for the mile, so she could realistically run any non-400 leg of this race. The Hokies have flexibility going into the relay which should allow them to set their lineup as they see fit. That leads me to believe that they will sneak onto the podium and earn All-American honors.