TSR Collaboration
Jun 7, 20219 min
Maura: Four men: Brandon Miller (Texas A&M), Finley McLear (Miami (OH)), Isaiah Jewett (USC), and Charlie Hunter (Oregon).
Miller has been on a roll this outdoor season and has momentum going into Nationals after winning his last four 800 meter races, two of which were the SEC Championship and NCAA West Regional Championships. Meanwhile, McLear will be out for revenge after coming up 0.01 seconds short of winning the 800 title at the NCAA Indoor Championship.
Jewett has been putting together a solid season on the west coast and is looking to break his streak of not qualifying for the National Championship final. As for Hunter, he is the reigning indoor champion and will have the home track advantage.
Ben: Five men: Brandon Miller (Texas A&M), Finley McLear (Miami (OH)), Isaiah Jewett (USC), Charlie Hunter (Oregon), and Kameron Jones (Clemson)
I agree with the four men that Maura listed. All have looked dominant at either conference or regional championships throughout the past year. While Hunter has lost to Jewett this year, he is starting to round into the form and he showed that peak during the indoor season.
I really liked what I saw from McLear at the East regional meet where he looked incredibly smooth when he was changing gears. Lastly, Jewett and Miller took down elite competition to win their respective conference titles and could easily do the same this week. I also added Jones to the mix because, even though he is inexperienced, he did just run 1:45 to win an ACC title.
Sam: I’d say at minimum six, but honestly, everyone who makes the final should have a chance. Per usual, I’ll note that the 800 is always crazy, so anything can happen.
All of the names Ben and Maura mentioned are legit contenders, but I’d also add Shane Streich of Lipscomb. In his regional rounds, Streich looked effortless, taking control when he decided that the race should truly get started and then walking away from the field with ease. He’s been having a huge breakout season after his time at Minnesota, and I wouldn’t sleep on him being in the mix when the moves are made.
Maura: The 800 outdoors seems to be deeper than it was indoors at the NCAA Championships. Even though Baylor’s Aaliyah Miller is the reigning champion, the other women in the mix are right there and could win the title as well. I don’t think Miller going out at an aggressive pace would be smart because if she were to fade over the last 100 to 150 meters, the likes of Michaela Meyer (Virginia), Laurie Barton (Clemson) and Gabrielle Wilkinson (Florida) could slip past her.
As for Meyer, the fact that she has a strong 4:09 1500 PR could bode well for her in this race. The Virginia ace has one of the top half-mile times in the field with her 2:00 personal best. If the race goes out slow, which is highly unlikely, Meyer’s speed could come in handy. If the race goes out fast, Meyer’s strength will be on full display.
Ben: I do believe that going out hard would benefit Miller and I would be surprised if she did not attempt to lead the first 400. With such a deep field of 800 runners, the Baylor star could cut the field of contenders down to a smaller number by pushing the pace early. That said, she will not surprise anyone by going out quickly like she did during indoors.
With plenty of other women in this field who have run close to (or at) 2:00, there will be more runners sticking with her early on. Still, we have seen Miller successfully front run in the past and sticking with that strategy might be her best shot at another NCAA title.
As for Meyer, it is hard for me to think of race tactics that would not favor her in this race. She has one of the best 1500 PR’s in the field and has been able to double well throughout the season. Her strength leads me to believe that she would be most successful in a quick race, but regardless of how the race plays out, I like the Virginia runner’s chances.
Sam: The smart move is the winning move, so it really depends on who we’re looking at here. For Miller, taking the race from the gun certainly isn’t a bad one. We’ve seen her do it before and it wouldn’t be surprising if she went for it again. Unless the weather is particularly windy, there’s really no major disadvantage to leading a race this short.
On the flip side, if you’re Meyer, you let Miller lead, sit in 2nd place and see what you have the last 100 meters. Now, if Miller doesn’t lead, I think Meyer should still employ a similar tactic. Get near the lead (2nd or 3rd) and hold your position. Meyer is arguably the best runner in the field, but bad tactics can be the nail in the coffin for this event. She should aim to be right near the front and do her best to avoid getting caught on the rail.
Maura: Gemma Finch (Troy) has developed nicely over the later portion of the season. Finch, a senior, began the 2021 outdoor season with a 2:08 personal best, but she dropped a massive 2:02 PR at the NCAA East Championships to grab the last qualifying spot for NCAA’s. She is peaking at the right time and could continue to chop off time in a deep field.
Adam Swanson (Eastern Illinois), a freshman, is making a name for not only himself, but also for the EIU Panthers. Swanson caught my attention after he ran 1:47 to finish the Texas Relays in late March. Since then, he has been consistently finishing near the front of his races. I think he could sneak into the final if he doesn’t let inexperience affect his racing.
Ben: I like McKenna Keegan of Villanova to find herself in one of the All-American positions when the dust settles. The Wildcat is peaking at the right timem, running a PR of 2:01 at the NCAA East Championships and is coming off of a win at the BIG East Championships. If her trajectory continues, then it won’t surprise me to see her finish in the top-eight this week.
I like Maura’s pick of Adam Swanson as I have seen first hand how well he can run an 800, but I’ll go with Jonathan Schwind of Lipscomb. His teammate Shane Streich has gotten most of the headlines, and deservedly so, but Schwind also looked very strong at the NCAA East Championships. With a 1:48 PR, he doesn’t have one of the quicker times in the field, but he has been a consistently strong performer throughout the year and looks to be peaking at the perfect moment.
Sam: Anna Camp of BYU is someone we have seen outperform expectations in 2021 and I wouldn’t be surprised if that continues at nationals. Sure, she has only run 2:04 this season, but based on her other results, I think she’s capable of running faster. Camp is a savvy veteran coming from a program that produces winners. Her biggest hurdle will be getting out of the prelim, but I think in a more tactical race, Camp can come through.
On the men’s side, I’ve already mentioned Streich so I’ll echo Ben’s comments on the other Lipscomb man, Jonathan Schwind. Despite a “slower” personal best, Schwind looked strong moving through tactical races at the East regional meet which is exactly what he’ll need to do at Nationals.
To be an All-American, it’s all about making the final. I don’t see Schwind with the top-end talent to win, but he brings the traits of someone who can get through the knockout stage.
Maura: If there’s anything I’ve learned, it's that you shouldn’t bet against Yared Nuguse. Not only is Nuguse the NCAA 1500 meter record holder with his solo 3:34 at the ACC Championships, but he is also the reigning NCAA champion. The middle distance ace has a lethal kick to watch out for if he is given room over the last 200 meters. Even though Eluid Kipsang (Alabama) defeated Nuguse at the NCAA East regional meet, no one will remember that in Eugene.
As I’ve already said, Nuguse has great finishing speed, so maybe the Alabama runner tries to take that kick out of Nuguse's arsenal. Meanwhile Cole Hocker (Oregon) will be racing on his home track and has proven to be a star all year long.
All of these men also have excellent 5k PRs from this outdoor season and clearly have the endurance to stick with whatever plan Kipsang employs.
Ben: I agree with Maura. The favorite has to be Nuguse. Not only is he the collegiate record holder, but he also has the best kick in the NCAA. Even if Kipsang and Hocker go out quickly, there isn’t any reason why the Notre Dame star would fall off the pace. Until Nuguse loses in a championship race, he will continue to be my favorite.
I think a quick early pace will guarantee a top-three finish for Kipsang, but I think it will be detrimental to his chances of winning the gold. Because Nuguse and Hocker are able to hang at that pace, the Alabama star will act as a rabbit before being passed. Additionally, the quick early pace will ensure that the race will only be won by one of these three men.
Sam: Kipsang is one of those rare runners who doesn’t seem to be mentally impacted by leading a race. Look, this isn’t cycling. Let’s not pretend the other guys are drafting off him and saving valuable energy -- it’s more the mental fatigue (and lack thereof) that are brought about by leading a race. So for Kipsang, setting an early pace improves his chances because he’s not going to kick to victory. For everyone else, it probably doesn’t matter.
Hocker and Nuguse can run whatever pace Kipsang sets, so unless he puts down a personal best, the race won’t be lost for them. I like Hocker over Nuguse (and Kipsang). It’s on his home track, he already won two indoor titles, and unlike Nuguse, he can come back next year (if he doesn’t go pro) and win a title if this one evades him. Sure, Nuguse has run well this year, but he also BARELY won his last title. Give me Hocker for the win, but Nuguse will still beat Kipsang.
Maura: Julia Heymach (5%), Amaris Tyynismaa (10%), Krissy Gear (12.5%), Whittni Orton (12.5%), the field (10%) and Sage Hurta (50%).
Ben: Amaris Tyynismaa (10%), Whittni Orton (20%), Krissy Gear (5%), Julia Heymach (10%), the field (5%) and Sage Hurta (50%)
Sam: Orton (18%), Gear (15%), Tyynismaa (12%), Heymach (10%), and the field (5%). Hurta is winning 40% of the time, which sounds kind of low, but it’s over double the odds of anyone else in the field and track is unpredictable by nature anyways.
Maura: Isaac Basten (Drake) is hitting his stride at the right time. Usually a 5k runner, Basten seems to be benefiting from training alongside 2021 NCAA mile All-American Adam Fogg. The Drake Bulldog began the season with a 3:47, but has dropped that to 3:40 at the NCAA West Regional Chaampionships. Basten has a lot of momentum heading into NCAA’s after finishing runner-up in his heat at the regional meet.
Micaela Degenero (Colorado) will be racing at her first NCAA Outdoor Championships. Since transferring to Colorado from Michigan, Degenero went from being a 4:20 1500 meter runner to now owning a 4:12 PR. Plus, she took down a slew of women on her way to a runner-up finish at PAC-12’s. The Buffalo has great training partners in Sage Hurta and Rachel McArthur and will have the opportunity to race with her teammates at the NCAA Championships.
Ben: It is hard to consider many people on the men’s side being a sleeper as so many athletes have run quick times. That said, I’ll go with Brandon Tubby of North Carolina who has run well early in the season and then again at the NCAA East Regional Championships. With a 3:38 PR, he can keep up with almost anyone and he has shown great tactical awareness in championship races.
For the women, I like Presley Weems of Auburn to be in contention for an All-American position. The junior was 2nd at the SEC Championships and finished 3rd in her heat at the NCAA East Regional Championships. She has been a breakout star this outdoor season and a top-eight finish at the national meet would be a great way to cap her outstanding year.
Sam: I agree with Ben that the cut-off for “sleeper” is a bit hard here. Adam Fogg is certainly a name I’d throw into the conversation, but he seems too prolific to fit here. Lucas Bons and Sam Tanner have been talked about less, but are certainly well-known and in many circles, heavily favored. So I’ll twist this a bit and say that Jack Salisbury from Georgetown is going to surprise a lot of people. I don’t really consider him a sleeper, but I think he’ll crack the top-five which is higher than many others might place him.
For the women, I’ll try and speak this into existence by saying Christina Aragon of Stanford. One of the biggest names in the sport for a while, injuries have derailed her career and had us wondering if she’d ever be back. Well, she is, and now is her chance to end on a high note.
Aragon will be sneaky good because although she has not run incredibly fast this year, she knows how to run the rounds. That will be enough to get her through and after that, it’s anyone's race.