TSR Collaboration
Jun 8, 20217 min
Sam: Ahmed Jaziri (Eastern Kentucky), Ryan Smeeton (Oklahoma State), Bennett Pascoe (Arkansas State), Alec Basten (Minnesota), Fitsum Seyoum (Virginia Tech). Realistically, this could be one of the most unpredictable, and consequently most exciting, races. All of these men have run super fast this season or have validated their breakout seasons. Frankly, this might not even be the full list of title contenders with Marsing and Chemadi not even mentioned.
Maura: I agree with everyone that Sam mentioned above. Smeeton may have the upper-hand because he was runner-up back in 2019, but the other men in this field have been tearing it up as of late, especially Pascoe and Basten. Their consistency has been impressive and I trust their experience, specifically Basten's experience after seeing what he did during indoors.
Garrett: Give me three to four men. Seyoum is a stud, but his ACC win was in perfect conditions and he was the most experienced name in that field. Pascoe is too inexperienced and Basten isn't a title contender in my eyes. I think Jaziri is the obvious top choice alongside Smeeton and Chemadi (given their background). I also think Marsing has been too good this year to ignore when talking about title contenders. In the end, I'm taking Jaziri to win it all as I think he has the best tools in his racing arsenal.
Sam: 70%. Wayment is head and shoulders above this field. In 2021, she has only been beaten by other collegiates twice this season, both in the 800. Orton ran faster than Wayment in her 5k heat later in the season, but she didn't necessarily beat Wayment in a head-to-head matchup. Knowing that, is there any reason to think that she can be beaten this weekend? I think not, and frankly, that should be all of the arguing that I need to do.
Maura: I’m going to one up Sam and go with 75%. The fact that this is Wayment’s sole event of the weekend gives her an advantage over the likes of doublers such as Joyce Kimeli (Auburn) and Hannah Steelman (NC State). However, she will still have to face Gabrielle Jennings (Furman) and Charlotte Prouse (New Mexico) who aren’t pulling any doubling duty.
Wayment enters this week with a 9:31 personal best, but I think she is capable of faster given her recent success and range. The field is tough, but Wayment has it in her to run sub-9:30.
Garrett: I like Sam's answer of 70%. The steeplechase is the most unpredictable event, especially with obstacles and water pits in the race. A fall could very easily happen to some of these top contenders. However, outside of that fall, Wayment should be viewed as the clear title favorite. No one is really close to her in this event and her success in other races should make her the clear favorite.
Sam: Kiptoo will make it honest from the gun. The main contenders will keep things close, knowing he can go the distance, even with a 10k in his legs. Between 3k and 4k, the top group of men (Teare, Hocker, Grijalva, Brandt) will latch onto Kiptoo. With 400 to go, Grijalva will move to the front. Teare will take the lead with 200 meters to go and although Grijalva will look to have a second-wind, Teare will hold him off down the straight. Hocker will kick hard, but he’ll be a bit out of position and won’t have the real estate to catch those two.
Of course, now that I explained it in such detail, it’ll probably end up being way different.
Maura: Well, I think we can all agree that Kiptoo will grind like he has all season because the dude has no chill. Kiptoo may feel the burn late in the race after running the 10k prior to the 5k whereas Teare and Grijalva will be fresh.
Teare and Grijalva will control the race over the later portion and the NAU Lumberjack will finally get his first national title. Hocker will hang on to beat Kiptoo for bronze because he has to impress the home crowd.
Garrett: There's no question that Kiptoo will take over the pacing duties, but Teare, Grijalva and maybe Hocker will eventually come back to make contact. Honestly, there's probably one more name who will be in that chase group, but i'm not sure who it is. It could be Facioni, Brandt, Kemboi or maybe someone who is a bit more underrated.
I still think Kiptoo will lead going into the last lap, but Teare and Hocker will then begin their kicks and begin to surge. Grijalva has the better wheels and his closing speed is top-notch, so I like him to pull away from Teare for the title.
Sam: Tactical or not, the women in contention will be the same. Whittni Orton (BYU), Elly Henes (NC State), Bethany Hasz (Minnesota), Mercy Chelangat (Alabama), Lauren Gregory (Arkansas) and Julia Heymach (Stanford). This group has stood out over the past year and the winner *should* come from them.
Chelangat seems to be the betting favorite, but considering she will have run the 10k already, I don’t see her winning. We should note that Orton has the combination of speed and strength that could get her that elusive title, although she'll be doubling.
Maura: I mostly agree with the women Sam noted, but I’m going to replace Gregory with Ella Donaghu (Stanford). The Cardinal ace benefits from the fact that she will team up with Heymach and she has been consistent in all of her races this outdoor season.
As for the woman I view as the favorite, I have to pick Henes over Chelangat and Orton. Henes will be fresh compared to her competitors and she has the mix of 1500 speed and 10k strength to benefit her in the 5k.
Garrett: I disagree with Sam, I think there is a clear difference in who the title contenders are depending on how the race unfolds. Chelangat, Henes and Hasz seem to be the ones who would be better in more aggressive settings while Heymach and Orton would do better in a tactical setting. Orton and Heymach are doubling back from the 1500, so a race where they can utilize their speed rather than dig into their stamina reserves likely benefits them more than an all-out affair.
Does this mean that any of these women can't win gold if the race is honest or tactical? No, that's not necessarily what I'm saying. However, certain race scenarios will be more favorable for certain athletes over others.
Sam: I have a hard time seeing anyone outside of Conner Mantz and Wesley Kiptoo winning this race. The field is full of talent, but Kiptoo will almost certainly make the effort honest from the gun, and as we saw during cross country, Mantz is able to go with him. I foresee this race playing out in a similar fashion, but Kiptoo may be more dangerous on the track where the conditions and “course” are less likely to take a toll.
And keeping with that theme, only those two will break 28 minutes, if anyone does at all. The other guys will likely make a second pack that runs a more conservative effort.
Maura: Mantz and Kiptoo will duke it out for the top-two places while Kurgat and Wildschutt will contend for 3rd place. Mantz and Kiptoo have both been strong in their respective races the past few weeks and don’t mind grinding from the fun. However, Mantz does a better job of maintaining pace.
I don’t think 28 minutes will be broken, but the race should be won in under 28:10 and the field will be close behind, only five to ten seconds back.
Garrett: I think there are three title contenders: Mantz, Kiptoo and Kurgat. This feels boarderline insulting to guys like Nur and Brandt, but Mantz, Kiptoo and Kurgat will be the ones who dictate this race and I think dictating the pace will ultimately be the difference-maker here.
Ultimately, I see four men running under 28 minutes. I think the aggressive pacing will lead to some super fast marks and a winning time in the 27:40's. I think Mantz, Kiptoo and Kurgat all dip into that area with one other name like Brandt, Nur and Wildschutt potentially cracking that barrier as well (with Wildschutt being my best guess).
Sam: Lightning, thunder. If you haven’t seen the original “Cars” movie, then this would be a great time to give it a watch. But if you don’t have the time, the complex logic here is thunder comes after lightning...meaning Forbes is going to pull off the upset victory.
Maura: I don’t think you can get any better than what Sam just wrote here. I like his hot take that Forbes will take the crown.
Garrett: David, Goliath. Grace Forbes is super well-rounded and is one of the few women with a personal best that can match the aggressive pace that this Alabama runner may employ. Still, Chelangat is the clear favorite and the experienced veteran while Forbes is still somewhat young. On paper, this is one of the more realistic upsets that we could see in Eugene, Oregon which is why I opted to go with the David and Goliath designations.