TSR Collaboration
Apr 27, 202119 min
We have a month left until the NCAA Regional Championships get under way. With April action wrapping up, we wanted to take a look at the landscape of the NCAA so far this year and attempt to evaluate certain performances as well as look into the postseason potential of certain athletes...
Maura: I’m going to make a case for BYU’s Conner Mantz. He may “only” have a 13:24 PR, but that time is just four to five seconds behind the Oregon and Iowa State duos. This Cougar veteran is an established distance runner and is coming off of a major victory at the NCAA XC Championships. His experience on the national stage and all-out grinding race tactics could pay off well.
However, what needs to be stated is that Mantz could also be in the hunt for the 10k title. Going after two titles is surely a tough job, but Mantz has attempted it before back in 2019, finishing 4th (10k) and 7th (5k), only a year after returning from his church mission.
Hannah: Conner Mantz is a great answer, but I am going to go with Nico Young. He had a great race at Drake Relays this past weekend, running 13:24 which is a new American U20 record. This freshman may not have the experience like a few others, especially Teare and Kurgat, but he doesn’t seem to falter in tough races.
Last month, we saw him finish 4th in Stillwater which was his first-ever national meet. At Drake, he was racing the 2019 NCAA 5k champion in Morgan McDonald and the 2018 NCAA 10k champion in Ben Flanagan. He ended up beating Flanagan and finishing behind McDonald by only three seconds.
I still think one of the four men mentioned above will win the title, but Young is a dark horse. However, his downfall might be a sit and kick race. We’ve all seen Hocker’s and Teare’s speed down the homestretch, but Young has only run 3:44 for 1500 meters this season and that might not be enough against these top-tier athletes.
Sam: Look, I love the thought process on Mantz, but realistically, he should be going after the 10k title. It’s clear from how he races that he really embodies that “grinder” mentality and as we saw at the NCAA XC Championships, he’s willing to hurt with anyone no matter how ludicrous the pace. While that mindset should set him up to challenge Kiptoo and Kurgat over 10,000 meters, it could hinder his chances over 5000. He’s going to be tired (as will others) and the 5k is notorious for a fast finish, something that favors guys like Hocker and Teare more than Mantz.
All of that said, what about someone who will be running only one event? Luis Grijalva of Northern Arizona is absolutely a threat. Sure, he has yet to run a 5k this spring, but there’s plenty of time left to qualify. He ran a personal best of 13:16 at the Sound Running Track Meet back in December, faster than everyone mentioned above.
Grijalva is likely going to stick to just one event given that NAU almost never doubles runners at the NCAA Championships. Considering the 5k is his best event, it seems like there’s a good chance that he toes the line for that distance in June.
Michael: Conner Mantz has now been mentioned multiple times and I agree that the NCAA cross country champ is absolutely a threat in the 5k. However, I think he will focus more on the 10k and will not be going all-in (meaning fresh) on the 5k like some of these other athletes will.
NAU immediately comes to mind as having multiple contenders. Nico Young and Luis Grijalva are certainly capable of rolling with a fast pace, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdi Nur or Blaise Ferro run in the low 13:20's in the right setting. However, another name that comes to mind is North Carolina's Thomas Ratcliffe. This Cardinal turned Tar Heel has a 3rd place finish under his belt from the 2019 national meet in the 5k, and while he has “only” run 13:32 (13:36 this season), I think Ratcliffe continues to be underrated and has an incredibly high ceiling. I think he’ll be there late in the race at the NCAA Championships.
When it really comes down to who has a legitimate shot at the title, I don’t think anyone not named Hocker, Teare, Kurgat or Kiptoo will come away with the win. These duos have shown that they are in a class of their own, whether it’s Hocker’s untouchable kick or Kiptoo’s willingness to take a 10k cross country race out in 2:30 for the first kilometer. There are a handful of guys in the NCAA capable of running just as fast as this group, but I truly do not think anyone else has shown the ability to beat these guys in a championship race.
Maura: Mu - Hurta - Chelangat
Texas A&M’s Athing Mu is practically a shoe-in to win the 800 meter national title after she ran a collegiate record of 1:57. Her three-second lead over Sage Hurta (Colorado) and Aaliyah Miller (Baylor) is a lot in the 800 because of how short the race is. Plus, the fact that Mu can also negative-split in this race makes her the favorite.
Hurta seems to have no problem running out front or biding her time in any race she toes the line for. If you need some evidence of that, just look back at her results from the 2021 indoor track season. The Colorado ace tested her abilities at the USATF Grand Prix in the 1500 meters and dropped a 4:08 amongst professionals. Hurta also has something her competitors don’t have: 2:00 speed for 800 meters.
Chelangat of Alabama, the NCAA cross country champion, will definitely face a tough field highlighted by the likes of Joyce Kimeli (Auburn), Hannah Steelman (NC State), Katie Wasserman (Notre Dame) and Ella Donaghu (Stanford) in the women's 5000 meters. She has momentum after running a huge time of 15:17, a 20-second PR, at the John McDonnell Invitational, but how will she fare in her first track championship? What happens if the race is tactical?
Hannah: Mu - Hurta - Chelangat
Athing Mu has to be the favorite. People are already placing her on the Olympic team and at the Michael Johnson Invitational, we saw her cruise away from Aaliyah Miller. I think the track world would be shocked if she didn’t win the national meet with ease.
I think Hurta is next as the most-likely to win an individual championship. At the Oregon Relays, she was the only collegian in a race against a bunch of professional runners, including former Olympians. Her 4:08 looks to be about a five-second PR, but most of us saw this coming after she won the indoor mile title with a 4:30 personal best.
Maudie Skyring of Florida State and Kennedy Thomson of Arkansas look to be her biggest competition so far. Krissy Gear of Arkansas, who finished runner-up to Hurta at the indoor national meet, has not been in true form so far this outdoor season, at least not in the 1500 meters, although there is still time for that to change.
The most competitive race listed would be the 5k with Mercy Chelangat. She does have 13 seconds over everyone else in the country right now, but there is a whole lot of season left for that to change. Joyce Kimeli from Auburn could challenge Chelangat, but she may be doubling back from the steeple. Carmela Cardama Baez from Oregon will be racing at home and we saw her in 2019 challenge the favorite and make a close race, although that was in the 10k. We might see a repeat of cross country national meet where Chelangat works with teammate Amaris Tyynismaa to go 1-2.
Sam: Mu - Hurta - Chelangat
Mu is the best 800 runner the NCAA has ever seen. She has a three second lead over the next women, ran the collegiate record via a negative split, and has 49-mid speed in the 400. I said it on the podcast this week and I’ll say it again - I really don’t know how anyone can beat Mu. Heck, I don’t know if any pro in the United States even has a great chance.
When Ben asked me about Hurta’s chances and if anyone can beat her, my answer was “That conversation starts and ends with No”.
Similar to Mu, Hurta has looked dominant in 2021. She has run an NCAA-leading 4:08 in her first (and only) 1500 this season and also showed off her speed with a 2:00 800 to open her season. Similar to Colorado legend Jenny Simpson, Sage Hurta has shown poise and consistency of a seasoned veteran when she races, executing her race plan to perfection each time. This is a no brainer to me - Hurta is winning a national title.
Chelangat is the only one in this group I’m not sold on. Yes, she has the 5k lead by 13 seconds, but when was the last time that race was a time trial at the national meet? There will be plenty of women in the 5k field who can close faster than her on the right day, so I’m hesitant to hand the trophy over just yet.
As for the 10k, Chelangat is probably the best pure 10k runner in the NCAA right now, but there are too many names near the top to make her the easy bet. Grace Forbes has been on a tear in 2021 and I wouldn’t be quick to bet against her. Chelangat is really good, there just happen to be a bunch of other really good women right there with her at this point in the season.
Michael: Mu - Hurta - Chelangat
Athing Mu smashed the collegiate record by negative splitting her way to a 1:57, and it doesn’t look like she’s reaching her limit. Experience is the only thing that Mu lacks, and I’m not sure experience matters for someone with so much talent. Mu could very well be on her way to becoming the best 800 meter runner in the world, and it will take an other-worldly performance from her competitors for Mu to not be standing atop of the podium.
Sage Hurta’s 2021 campaign has made her look virtually unbeatable among her NCAA peers. I would be very surprised to see her come away with anything but another NCAA title in June, but her competition is a bit more threatening than Mu’s. Running 4:08 for 1500 meters is very impressive, but paired with her personal best 2:00 for 800 meters, she looks almost untouchable. There are a few women we have yet to see reach top form in the 1500 this season. Women like Courtney Wayment and Krissy Gear coming to mind. However, at this point, Hurta is pretty much a lock.
Mercy Chelangat will have her work cut out for her to win the 5k title. Unlike Mu and Hurta, Chelangat did not contest the indoor national meet in March, and instead won the individual cross country title.
While 6k in cross country generally translates very well to the 5k on the track, Chelangat’s competition is a lot deeper. Hannah Steelman, Katie Wasserman and Amaris Tyynismaa have all looked great so far this season, but we have yet to see Elly Henes or Joyce Kimeli contest the 5k. Chelangat certainly looks like the favorite at this point having run 15:17, but unlike the 800 and 1500, I can see the 5k unfolding in a variety of ways at the NCAA Championships, leading to many more possible outcomes compared to the middle distances.
Maura: I expect to see Abdihamid Nur and Blaise Ferro to attempt the 10k at some point this season and go for the 5k/10k double at the NCAA Championships. Nur contested the 10k back in December at the Sound Running Track Meet and won his section in a time of 28:12. Ferro last ran the 10k back in 2019 and ran 28:22. Both of these guys have been seeing major success as of late after stellar performances at the NCAA XC Championships and rececntly in the 5k. They might not be in contention for the title, but All-American honors could be on the table.
I wanted to add Nico Young to that list, but I could see him go all-in on the 5k after running an eye-popping 13:24 in a field full of professionals and teammates at the Drake Relays.
Hannah: I think Abdihamid Nur, Ryan Raff and Blaise Ferro will all run the 10k this year and could qualify out of the West region for Nationals. Raff, especially, will be looking for a comeback performance after finishing 150th at the cross country national meet last month. I also think it would be fun to see Brodey Hasty and Luis Grijalva attempt the track 10k. They will probably stick to the 5k, but it would be interesting to see if NAU could pull a BYU and send five or more men to Nationals in one event.
Sam: I’ll echo what Maura and Hannah mentioned about Nur, Ferro and Raff all giving it a go. Seeing that group chase some fast times seems pretty likely, but I think only Raff would actually consider running it at the regional meet.
As I already mentioned, NAU doesn’t historically double their top guys at the NCAA Championships. If you look at 2018 and 2019, none of their runners attempted the distance double despite being capable of doing so and I doubt Mike Smith would change that in 2021. And while Nico Young would be an interesting case, it was noted during the Drake Relays broadcast that Smith likely wouldn’t move the freshman up to the 10k given his age.
Michael: Abdi Nur, Blaise Ferro and Ryan Raff are all good choices to contest the 10k in the postseason. With Nico Young and Luis Grijalva likely focusing on the 5k, the Lumberjack's best bet may be to spread out their talent and see if they can go for a title in the 10k as well. With the depth of the Lumberjacks’ roster, I’m not sure any of their athletes will double the 5k and 10k at the national meet.
Nobody on their team is so dominant that winning both races looks like a strong possibility, so I think they are better off having each athlete focus on running their best in one event. To add to the original trio I mentioned, I would like to see Brodey Hasty run the 10k this season. Hasty was a star in high school, but has yet to reach his full potential in the NCAA. Hasty has finished just outside the top-40 in cross country twice now, and with personal bests of 3:48 in the 1500 and 13:55 in the 5k, he does not seem to be a realistic contender in either of the shorter events. The 10k could be the perfect fit for Hasty this spring.
Maura: I don’t foresee much changing on the leaderboard this late in the season in the 10k as we are getting closer to that window where athletes start to fine-tune their speed and work on their racing tactics, things not necessarily worked on in the 10k.
Rice’s Grace Forbes will surely be in the conversation for the title, but I think Mercy Chelangat (Alabama), Carmela Cardama-Baez (Oregon) and Clare O’Brien (Boise State) are right there near the top with her. Chelangat has shown her dominance in the 5k and 10k, winning by 16 seconds and 51 seconds, respectively in her last few races. Cardama-Baez will have the home track advantage at the NCAA Championships and it's important to remember that she was the runner-up in 2019. And then there’s O’Brien, the Bronco veteran who has been putting herself in contention for the win in her last two races.
Hannah: I could see the leaderboard still changing a bit this year. Conference and regional meets are coming up and I expect some people to show up at those meets. No BYU, Stanford, NC State or New Mexico athletes grace the top-15 on the national leaderboard which is pretty unusual.
I wouldn’t call Grace Forbes a title favorite. I’m excited to see Amanda Vestri from Syracuse challenge for the title after she didn’t have a great cross country national meet, finishing in 71st. She currently has the NCAA #3 time in the 10k with a mark of 32:43.
Sam: With a slew of west coast meets and bigger conference races coming up, I’d imagine we may see the order of the leaderboard change, but the names likely won’t. There are probably a handful of runners who will make their event debut and grab a regional qualifier, but for the most part, I think the names we’ll be talking about at the NCAA Championships are the ones sitting at the top right now.
We kind of touched on this already, but I don’t see a favorite in this race as things currently stand in the 10k. Chelangat is obviously going to be one of the best, Forbes is running wild, and there’s a whole bunch of women right on their heels. One name not to gloss over is Aubrey Frentheway of BYU. The Cougar women have been phenomenal in 2021 and Frentheway is no exception. Her 33:03 mark at the Hayward Premiere was a two-minute personal best and she is also coming off of a 15th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. I trust that Diljeet Taylor will have BYU peaking at the right time which could make Frentheway a dark horse contender come June.
Michael: At this point in the season, I think the 10k leaderboard is going to stay pretty much where it is. Most athletes do not want to go to the well to produce a fast 10k only a couple weeks out from the NCAA Championships, so unless we see some big performances at conference meets, I imagine this is pretty much our list for the season.
With that being said, I don’t think it’s safe to call Grace Forbes the title favorite to win the 10k at the NCAA Championships. She only has seven seconds over Mercy Chelangat, which is a marginal difference over the course of 32+ minutes. It is unclear if Chelangat will go for the title in the 10k with the possibility of going all-in on the 5k. In that case, I like Forbes’ chances a lot, but with many athletes on the list only having run the event once so far this season, this race at the NCAA Championships may be pretty wide open.
Carmela Cardama-Baez has run well at national meets in the past and could be a threat. Clare O’Brien and Amanda Vestri have both already been mentioned as contenders, and I can see situations where either of them could win it. There’s also Katie Izzo. The Razorback has not looked great so far this season, but if she can put it together at the outdoor national meet, then it is very hard to look past her.
Maura: Finley McLear of Miami (OH) will be seeking revenge at the NCAA Outdoor Championships after finishing 0.01 seconds away from his first title in the 800 meters at the indoor national meet. McLear’s time of 1:46 ranks him first on the national leaderboard, but he won’t win this race easily. USC’s Isaiah Jewett and Oregon’s Charlie Hunter, if he contests the event, will put up a fight, but McLear has the advantage by a hair.
As for the 1500, it’s hard to bet against Notre Dame’s Yared Nuguse, the 2019 champion, but the Fighting Irish ace has yet to contest his primary event. However, outside of Nuguse, I’m liking the odds of Alabama’s Eliud Kipsang. The true freshman ran a solo 3:36 a few weeks ago, winning by 10 seconds, and has since shown his range across the 800 and 5k. A lack of experience doesn’t seem to be affecting Kipsang. This is also assuming that Hocker runs the 5k over the 1500 meters.
Hannah: How satisfying would it be for Finley McLear to beat Charlie Hunter at Hayward Field to avenge his loss from the indoor national meet? I don’t think it will happen, but it would be satisfying. He has a chance, but this is a pretty stacked field. Charlie Hunter (Oregon), Luis Peralata (Oregon), Festus Lagat (Iowa State) and Isaiah Jewett (USC) will all be tough competition. Also, the 800 is such an unpredictable event and anything could happen.
For the 1500 meters, I agree with Maura. I’ve bet against Yared Nuguse before and it didn’t turn out well for me. He is always tough to beat and if he races the 1500 I believe he will win. We also can't ignore Oregon’s Cole Hocker. We all know he is a contender to win every time he steps on the track, but he could choose to focus on the 5k. There are a ton of other great runners in the 1500 this year, but if Nuguse and Hocker race, I believe they be the ones taking home the title.
Sam: I say this every year, but I don’t think there really is a favorite in the 800 meters (Mu is an exception). McLear has looked great this outdoor season, but Jewett and Hunter are major contenders, as are Festus Lagat of Iowa State and Luis Peralta of Oregon. While McLear may have the fastest mark in the NCAA, it’s not by a substantial margin which makes this anyone’s race. I’d be more inclined to bet on Hunter simply based on his tactical prowess and added confidence from competing at home.
In the 1500 meters, Yared Nuguse (Notre Dame) and Sam Tanner (Washington) are going to be major players. Neither have yet to run the event this outdoor season, but both have shown what they can do for the distance. Nuguse is the defending national champion and Tanner ran 3:34 for 1500 meters on the indoor oval only a couple months back. Eliud Kipsang may be the current leader, but his tactical ability has been less than stellar which concerns me given the number of rounds it takes just to reach the final. With all of that said, if Cole Hocker runs this event, he is winning the title.
Michael: The men’s 800 looks too close to determine a true favorite at this point. I’m hesitant to pick Finley McLear to win, as his NCAA lead is very slim at this point. And while he did take a very close runner-up finish to Charlie Hunter at the Indoor National Championships, that was only one race and I’m not sure he would be called a favorite had that race not unfolded the way it did. Charlie Hunter is never a bad pick, and both Isaiah Jewett and Festus Lagat have looked great too. This looks like just about anyone’s race right now.
The 1500 might be the deepest event on the men’s side this year. Cole Hocker looks hard to bet against whichever way the race unfolds. Both Waleed Suliman and Eliud Kipsang look capable of winning based on their 3:36 performances. However, we really need to wait and see what Sam Tanner and Yared Nuguse run. I would consider these two to be the top contenders behind Hocker, but anything can happen as we saw during indoors, with Sam Tanner failing to make the finals in the mile.
Maura: Joyce Kimeli (Auburn) stands out on the women’s side in the steeplechase. The Auburn runner dropped 15 seconds off of her previous best en route to a dominating 9:37 win at the War Eagle Invitational. After winning the 5k at the indoor national meet, Kimeli doesn’t seem to be slowing down this spring.
I see two women leading the chase pack in the steeplechase, New Mexico’s Charlotte Prouse and Colorado’s Madison Boreman. Both Prouse and Boreman have been runner-ups in their careers, Prouse twice (2018 and 2019) and Boreman once (2017). These ladies have already posted solid steeple openers for the outdoor season, Boreman’s being more notable as she ran 9:48, only two-seconds shy of her 2017 PR.
On the men's side, Ky Robinson (Stanford) stands out on the men’s side. As only a freshman, Robinson didn’t need to adapt to steeplechase training after contesting the event during his prep days in Australia. In his first NCAA steeplechase, Robinson kept pace with Oregon’s Jackson Mestler and dipped well under 9:00, en route to a mark of 8:46. With a mix of his endurance from the 5k, Robinson could be a sneaky good challenger. He hasn't really faltered in any race that he has toed the line for this season.
Iowa State’s David Too has been on a roll this season in the steeplechase. This is Too’s first season competing in the event and already finds himself near the top. Opening in 8:47 and then knocking off seven seconds in his second attempt has to give Too some confidence heading into the layer portions of the season.
Hannah: Joyce Kimeli from Auburn is the standout for me. She has the strength from the 5k and has translated her indoor track success to the steeplechase. It will be interesting to see if she chooses to race both the steeple and the 5k (the Allie Ostrander special) or if she sticks with just one event.
Charlotte Prouse from New Mexico is a fan (and broadcaster) favorite. Remember when broadcasters made a huge deal out of the fact she chews bubblegum while she steeples? Anyways, I like her chances to challenge for a title. She has the national meet experience like Maura stated and she has a PR of 9:44. If she can round into form and start dropping some time, she will challenge Kimeli for the win.
For the men I don’t know if there is one specific favorite yet. I think 2019 steeplechase runner-up Ryan Smeeton of Oklahoma State is looking to avenge his loss. He has “only” run 8:51 so far this year, but holds a PR of 8:27. Matt Owens and Clayson Shumway of BYU are hoping to keep up the Cougars' steeple reputation as well. Shumway ran 8:47 at the Oregon Premiere meet earlier this spring while Owens was back in 8:59. They both can go faster than that and will hope to as they try to win a national title. Their experience is too good to ignore.
Sam: Gabrielle Jennings of Furman is the favorite in my mind. Sure, Joyce Kimeli has the NCAA lead right now, but it’s only by seven seconds. Jennings just set a new personal best at the Drake Relays, finished as the top collegiate in the field and has run 4:12 for 1500 meters this spring. The leader of the #GirlGang has been on fire in 2021 and could be tough to beat in this race.
On the men’s side, we’ve touched on a lot of the marquee favorites already, so let me present my argument for Josh Yeager of South Dakota State. The former Drake runner is coming off a big personal best at the Drake Relays, running 8:48 and finishing as the top collegian in that field. He flew under-the-radar for much of 2021 as he was competing unattached during the indoor season, but he did clock times of 7:58 for 3000 meters and 4:03 for the mile.
He presents a great wildcard in this steeplechase field as the SDSU men rarely see big competition outside of Drake and the regional meet. I wouldn’t say he’s the favorite, but think he could be a great sleeper pick.
Michael: It’s hard to overlook Joyce Kimeli at this point. 9:37 is no joke, but she is also highly ranked in the 1500 meters and has great experience in the 5k. Kimeli could double, or opt for an event other than the steeplechase. However, if she does run the steeplechase, then she looks like the favorite right now.
New Mexico’s Charlotte Prouse and Adva Cohen are always in the mix and I could also see either of them running away with the title, although Cohen is a bit inconsistent at times. If Joyce Kimeli is the favorite, I think one of the New Mexico women is the most likely to take her down.
The big question for me will be whether Hannah Steelman and Krissy Gear run the steeplechase at the NCAA Championships. Steelman is currently ranked at NCAA #2 in the 5k, and Gear could drop down to the 1500 meters. If I had to guess, I would say Steelman runs the 5k, but Gear sticks with the steeple, in which case Gear has to be a contender too.
As Hannah mentioned, if Oklahoma State’s Ryan Smeeton gets back into top form, he will be hard to beat. If he even gets close to his 8:27 best, he’s my pick to win it. Beyond Smeeton, I like Clayson Shumway’s chances. While he has never really been in the mix to win a title, he has a ton of experience and has continually proven that he’s super strong. The men’s race looks a lot more wide open than the women’s race though, so there are a lot of guys who could take the title, as seen by how many names have been mentioned so far.