TSR Collaboration
Feb 20, 20206 min
Discussion by Hannah Thorn and Brett Haffner
*Disclaimer: Brett is teammates with Kyler Lueck at UW-Eau Claire.*
Brett: To provide the facts, Lueck, the reigning national champion in the indoor and outdoor 800 and has run over two seconds faster than anybody else in Division Three so far this season against some quality D1 competition. I’ll leave the reactions up to Hannah, for obvious reasons.
Hannah: Lueck took over the top spot from sophomores Mike Jasa from Loras and Steven Potter from UW-Oshkosh who both ran their fastest times of the season at December 7th meets. It seems as though Lueck is trending upwards at the right time. A 1:50 is incredibly impressive and that's what it usually takes to win a national title. I think this has to make him the title favorite right now as the next closest D3 time is 1:52.34. We will most likely get to see Potter and Lueck face off in the 800 meters at the WIAC Championship at the end of the month in what should be an electric race.
Brett: Aschale’s 3k was surely impressive, but it sort of came out of nowhere to be quite honest. I wasn’t really expecting anyone to run this close to Aidan Ryan’s 8:08 from earlier in the season, but Aschale proved his talent in a big way. We talked about him during cross country being a solid contender, but he ended up finishing "only" 48th at the national meet. If he can translate his regular season success to Nationals, then he'll be a no-brainer All-American.
As of now, I think Ryan and Aschale could be considered favorites, but there’s a part of me that is hesitant to say that. Getting to run a blazing fast time at Boston University should not be discredited by any means, but I believe that there are more guys in Division Three who could be pulled along to run close to 8:10.
If anyone, I may have to lean towards Ryan, especially with his newly minted 4:05 mile PR, but more because of his previous national meet experience, racking up three All-American honors on the track. He’s been one of D3’s best over the last year, so I like his odds to win by quite a bit.
Hannah: This year, there are six guys who have run 8:20 or faster and with converted times, they are all within five seconds of each other. I am not sure I am ready to call anyone a title favorite in this event. The longer distance races tend to be more strategic at national meets which could lead to a number of men having a shot at the title.
As it pertains to Ryan and Aschale, we don’t know what Ryan is going to run yet. As we talk about later, he has options which include the mile, 3000 meters and the DMR. He most certainly will double, and if he chooses the 3000 meters as one of the two events, then he will come into the finals on Saturday with tired legs. Meanwhile, Aschale is only qualified for NCAA's in the 3k so far, so he would be more rested than Ryan. While this may not mean a whole lot, it does give Aschale an advantage, however big that may be.
Brett: It’s got to be Matthew Wilkinson of Carleton. After finishing runner-up at the NCAA Cross Country Championships this past fall, he’s been on an absolute tear this track season. He's run 4:08 in the mile, 8:18 in the 3k and 14:22 in the 5k...those are some crazy marks. He has great promise to contend for a national title in any of those events; I’m quite curious to see what he’ll end up running at Nationals.
However, I also want to highlight Noah Falasco of RPI. The current senior has had some impressive performances on the national stage, racking up 4th, 5th and 7th place finishes in the mile and 1500 meters at National Championships over the last two years. He has slipped under the radar as a pretty good runner, but now he has brought himself towards the top of Division Three. His 4:05 mile and 8:18 3k are no joke, putting him at NCAA #2 and NCAA #4 in D3 so far this season. Based on his success in previous national meets, I think Falasco has a really good shot at bringing home one (or maybe even multiple) top three finishes a few weeks from now.
Hannah: I am going to say that Tyler Nault from UW-La Crosse has had the best range so far this season. He has PR’d in his last three races to post a 4:12 mile, 8:19 3k, and a 14:37 5k. Those rank as the NCAA #4, NCAA #6, and NCAA #11 times in D3 this year, respectively.
Nault could also play a role in UWL’s DMR. He has consistently been strong in cross country, but he has never qualified for a national meet on the track. This year, he could choose from three - maybe even four - events to run in at NCAA's. If that's not impressive range, then I don’t know what does.
Brett: As I mentioned above, I think that Aidan Ryan and Danny Aschale could be considered "favorites" in the 3000 meters, but I’d lean towards Ryan. In the 5000 meters, there’s a whole mix of guys right near each other. Wilkinson, Patrick Watson of Stevenson, and David Fassbender of UW-Whitewater have all posted times relatively close to each other. That group, along with Tyler Nault who has displayed notable improvements across multiple events, essentially makes the 5k a toss-up.
Hannah: I don’t think either event has a true favorite. While the 3k has men like Aidan Ryan and Danny Aschale, everybody has to run prelims and you never know what chaos could happen with multiple races. Also, many 3k qualifiers are currently ranked in other events and might choose to double. That opens up the door as they will be running on tired legs. Realistically, I think there are maybe five men who could take the 3k win.
As for the 5k, Wilkinson, Watson and Fassbender are the favorites, but the winner could end up being any of them. We saw Wilkinson and Watson battle it out at the cross country national meet this past fall where Watson did not pull away until later in the race. I think the shorter distance favors Wilkinson, but Watson has proved not to be doubted at a national meet. Then you have Fassbender who has made a major leap this year to the upper-echelon of D3. I think he is the dark horse that I refuse to count out.
Brett: I think that this stunning performance by the Williams quartet would lead them towards running the DMR at Nationals. When I interviewed Aidan Ryan last month, he expressed interest in running a DMR with his Williams teammates, so it would seem very likely that given their recent success, we will see them contest the DMR in March.
In addition to that, I think we’ll see Ryan either double with the mile or the 3k. He’s poised to do quite well in either event as evidenced by his 4:05 mile and 8:08 3k so far. My guess is that he’ll run the 3k, but there are multiple possibilities for him to choose.
Hannah: If you haven’t checked out that interview, my only question is why? I agree with Brett that Ryan seems pretty team orientated. I would love to see the Williams DMR go for the D3 record at the national meet because it is definitely within their reach.
I believe the harder decision for Ryan will be choosing between the 3k and the mile. Personally, I think he should go for the mile. He is so close with Noah Falasco (RPI) and Mathew Wilkinson (Carleton). I can see Wilkinson choosing the 3k/5k double which would leave the race open for Falasco and Ryan to battle it out in the mile. Selfishly, I would prefer to see that.
Of course, Ryan will have a good chance for an individual title no matter which race he chooses.