TSR Collaboration
Jan 26, 202112 min
The D2 indoor track season is well under way and plenty of action has already taken place. With a few weeks of results in the books, our D2 team decided to dive into the national leaderboard in an attempt to pull some key insights from the competition that we've seen so far...
Eric: A quick look at the results on the men's side would conclude that Caleb Futter is the name that has taken the biggest leap so far, running 4:06 in his season opener. However, since he is kind of the obvious pick, I'll go with the Michigan graduate transfer Isaac Harding.
Harding raced the mile this past weekend and came away with a new personal best time of 4:03. This was a big race for him as it shows that he has made a seamless transition to the Division 2 ranks. It was also encouraging to see him get a win over his teammate and All-American Tanner Chada. Not to mention his time ranks at NCAA #2 (D2) after two weeks of competition. He is going to be a big contender in the mile come March if he pursues the event at the national meet.
On the women's side, is anyone not going to take Taryn Chapko? She is a true freshman who owns D2's second-fastest 800 meter time. Although this isn't her lifetime best, she has performed like someone who has much more collegiate racing experience than she actually does. She could provide a huge boost in scoring if she is able to continue her success, especially at the NCAA meet as Grand Valley State usually does not score many points in events lower than the mile.
Nate: For the men’s side, I have to take who Eric dubbed as “the obvious pick” and go with Caleb Futter who is coming off of a redshirt year absolutely swinging. 4:06 in the mile and a win over top-ranked teammate Dennis Mbuta in his first race wildly impressive. And that was just the first week!
I have to note that he followed up that performance a week later with an 8:10 in the 3000 meters to get a second provisional mark in another event. Regardless of being a redshirt frosh or a true frosh, it doesn’t change the fact that Futter is young and in his first season of competition for GVSU. If you want momentum, Futter has gained plenty of that over the last two weeks. The choice here, in my opinion, is just…obvious.
As for the women, I think I have to cave and agree with Eric here, only on account of my logic for picking Futter for the men. Taryn Chapko holds the second-fastest 800 meter time nationally (D2) as a true freshman. She dropped a 2:13 and there’s still a significant amount of time left to race and I wouldn’t be shocked to see her break 2:10 soon. Chapko’s already in the national picture and, maybe it’s a bit premature to say this, but could find herself competing for an All-American spot when the postseason comes around.
John: I’ll admit that I had my worries about Isaac Harding heading into the season, but after two weeks on the indoor circuit, he has proven to be one of the best runners in D2. He opened with a 3k where he ran 8:11 en route to a 2nd place finish at the Bob Eubanks Open. That’s not extremely fast, but it is just one second off his personal best from when he was at Michigan.
The following weekend he raced a mile. Harding (along with teammate Tanner Chada) dropped a stunning 4:03 where he now sits second on the NCAA list. That was a nine second personal best for him.
Harding may look to focus on the mile after that performance, but we've yet to see him race a 5k and I think we are going to see a top-tier performance from Harding whenever he toes the line for that race.
On the women's side, I’ve been impressed with Olivia Brian. She is currently listed at NCAA #8 in the mile (4:52) and NCAA #6 in the 3k (9:48). Both are very solid marks, but the key here is that Brian is lightyears ahead of where she was last indoor season. Brian ran 10:03 in December fresh off a 45th place finish at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships. She didn’t race again until February where she ran 5:00 in the mile.
However, the current junior has now entered the national conversation as a serious All-American threat and we only expect her to get better moving forward.
Eric: No. I think winning the 3k/5k is reasonable, but I can't see him winning a third title. I just feel like someone who would be fresh would have a better chance at beating Noble, especially since the Lee ace would have run two races before the mile final (assuming he had already won the 5k and raced the mile prelims). I like him in the longer events as that's where he’s the strongest even though he’s on the cusp of breaking four minutes in the mile.
Nate: I have to agree with Eric on this one, although I’d very much love to see Noble prove us wrong and take the triple crown. Still, I just don’t think it’s plausible. Looking at it, he’d have the mile prelims and the 5k on day one. He could certainly advance to the mile final and come back to win the 5k. But then to have the mile finals followed by the 3k an hour and a half later on day two? I don’t know, that seems like a lot.
It's not that Noble isn’t an elite miler. As Eric pointed out, he’s just about to break the four minute barrier. Even so, there are other guys who will be in that race who won't be super far behind. He doesn’t have the same leeway in the mile as he does in the longer events. Assuming Noble wins the mile final on day two, he’d have to earn it. This isn’t even considering the possibility of him taking a leg on the DMR.
John: I love the idea of an athlete tripling at a national meet, so I am personally hoping that Noble does try and do this. That being said, it’s highly improbable that he wins three events...but it's not impossible. I certainly believe that Noble is on another level right now, but the reason why I think it’s possible for him is because he does not have to push the pace in order to win a race.
He’s already showcased his speed by running 4:00 in the mile, theoretically making him an elite finisher at the end of a race, and in particular, a championship race. I think he would face his biggest challenge in the 5k as that is a race more prone to someone taking it hard from the gun and it would come nearly two hours after the mile prelims.
A tactical final in the mile would be the perfect segway to the 3k where his legs would likely be tested from the gun again. However, with 90 minutes between those two events, I’d say that’s enough time for Noble to gather himself and run fast again.
Now, Noble could opt out of the 5k and race the DMR where the Flames will look to have a talented team as well. The time difference between the mile prelims and the DMR is roughly two and a half hours.
However, if you just set the NCAA D2 record, wouldn’t you want a crack at winning the title in that event as well?
Eric: No, I still think it's Allie Ludge’s race to lose. After running a 9:18 (3k) during the 2020 indoor season before the NCAA Championships were canceled, she has proven that she is capable of running faster than her current season best of 9:28 (her 9:18 was still 10 seconds faster than Lauren Bailey’s best time of 9:28 from last season).
Granted, Ludge has only raced twice this year, but I can see her gearing up for a fast race at the always competitive GVSU hosted “Big Meet”. Other than that, I think she will focus all of her energy on getting prepared for the NCAA meet as she tries to take home her first NCAA individual title.
Nate: I gotta say that this is Allie Ludge’s title to lose. She has a firm spot as “the class of the field.” Ludge has already dropped a 9:28 this season and notched a PR of 9:18 last year. Ludge was the top 3k qualifier last year and her current time this season, which is 10 seconds slower than what she ran last year, would still place her among last year’s top-three qualifiers.
John: Okay, so I don’t think that this race is immediately wide open. However, after two weeks, I do believe that we will see some very impressive performances from some of these toher ladies before throughout the rest of the season making this more of an argument. Lauren Bailey will enter the conversation, as should Stephanie Cotter. But Celine Ritter just ran 4:44 for a mile and has already run 9:31 in her career for 3000 meters. Her teammate, Chloe Flora, just ran 9:39 as well.
I don’t think this is a runaway race for Ludge just yet. As to how many challengers she will realistically have? Well, that remains to be seen at the moment.
Eric: I’m looking forward to seeing Zoe Baker from Colorado Mines as well as the duo from Western Colorado in Taylor Stack and Charlie Sweeney compete. Both teams are racing this weekend, it's just unclear if those runners will toe the line.
Sweeney is fresh off of competing at the Sound Running Track Meet in which he set a 15 second personal best in the 5k, running 13:45 at the beginning of December. Stack and Baker have a longer gap in their racing history, last competing in October at the RMAC XC Championships. With fast times being thrown down, I’m sure these All-Americans are eager to compete.
Nate: I really want to see Taryn Christy from Illinois-Springfield and Joshua Chepkesir from UNC-Pembroke toe the line this season.
Christy is coming off of a great cross country season where she again finished among the GLVC’s top runners, with only Indianapolis’s Lauren Bailey and Southwest Baptist’s Elysia Burgos beating her. She was prepared to make her national debut on the track last year before everything was cancelled, so I’m sure she’s pretty eager to compete. Given her cross country season, I don’t think she’s really missing a step, so I’m willing to bet on her throwing down some great races this year.
Joshua Chepkesir is in a similar boat to Christy. Chepkesir is coming off of his third-straight Peach Belt title on the grass and has notched some impressive, national-qualifying marks on the track. However, he has yet to set foot on the national stage.
Chepkesir tends to run from the front and I want to see how fast he’ll push the pace in his first track race this year. I’m actually really hoping he just decides to go "full-send' and notch a crazy qualifying mark in his first time out. He seems like the guy I can count on to do so.
Quick Note: I also want to see 800 meter workhorse Hugo Arlabosse, who just placed 4th at the French National Championships. It's not entirely clear if FPU is competing in any fashion this indoor season given the NE-10’s decision to let individual institutions decide whether or not they want to compete in out-of-conference competition this winter.
John: I am extremely excited to see Carson Bix (Adams State) make his season debut. We were robbed of Bix's first NCAA Championship appearance on the track last season when he looked like one of the best all-around runners in the country. Like Eric mentioned with Sweeney, Bix posted a personal best of 13:44 at the Sound Running Track Meet in early December. I’m expecting big results from him in the 3k and the mile this season, and when we reach the NCAA meet, Bix might be one of the few who could rival Christian Noble for one of those individual titles.
As for the women, I’m looking forward to seeing Berenice Cleyet-Merle open up her season. The middle distance ace climbed up our rankings at a furious rate last winter after she dropped the fastest 800 meter time (2:06) and fourth-fastest mile time (4:40) in all of D2 last year. She was heading into Nationals as the favorite over 800 meters and was certainly a threat for the mile title as well.
I’d imagine her debut is coming sooner rather than later as we enter our third weekend of the season. If she does race this weekend, she’ll likely enter week four as one of the favorites for an NCAA title.
Eric: Blake Jones from Illinois-Springfield has had two very impressive performances over past two weekends (not to mention winning the GLVC cross country title back in October).
First, he went to Grand Valley State and took down Issac Harding and Tanner Chada in the 3k with a big time of 8:08. Then, he went to the CrossPlex and ran a D2 automatic qualifying time of 14:02, shaving nearly a minute off of his personal best. After not qualifying for a NCAA Championship on the track, he is sitting pretty in the national rankings...and it's only January.
Layla Almasri has also run very well this early in the year. The Mountain Lion has produced two national qualifying times in both the mile and 3k while winning both of those efforts. With a couple of home meets on the schedule, she will look to continue her unbeaten streak heading into the RMAC Championships at the end of February.
Nate: Eric made very good points with Blake Jones, but I want to take a look at Southern Indiana’s Austin Nolan. He's been mentioned a few times for cross country in the past and has qualified for the indoor national meet last year in the 3k and 5k. However, after not competing at all in cross country this year, he stepped onto the indoor oval and broke the 14-minute barrier, running 13:58 over 5k indoors.
Normally, I would say he’s a title contender after seeing that result, but Lee’s Christian Noble has that on-lock right now and it’s his choice as to whether or not he wants to give it up.
But, in regards to improving their stock the most, I think Nolan did that with his 5k performance. It wasn’t really until last year that Nolan hit a groove on the track, but now he has taken it up another notch. He's done enough to put me on notice.
I think I also have to give Celine Ritter a look here. She recently dropped a 4:44 in the mile at the Samford Open this year. That’s already a fast time and a PR compared to her 4:46 from last year, but the real kicker for me is that she won that race by 11 seconds.
Now, I know Stephanie Cotter and Berenice Cleyet-Merle haven’t raced yet, and Elysia Burgos hasn’t raced since December. However, I think Ritter is showing promising signs of progression that hint at a strong title case for this year’s mile national title. I know she’s already high up in the ranks, but I think she can really make a case for that prestigious top-five tier.
Depending on how things shake out from here, maybe she can even crack the top-three...
John: This isn’t someone who has increased their stock the most, but he has certainly made a dramatic leap upwards in fitness. Josh Pierantoni of Colorado Christian had a solid debut at the Crimson and Gold Invitational last weekend where he ran 8:16 for 3000 meters and earned a provisional qualifier. Now, 8:16 might not get him into the NCAA meet, but it was a 24-second improvement upon where he was at this point last season.
Pierantoni built momentum after finishing 9th place at the RMAC XC Championships last fall and is clearly taking advantage of newfound confidence as we get deeper into this indoor track season.
On the women's side, Toni Moore is who I’d like to talk about. The Lady Flame currently gets overshadowed by her teammates Celine Ritter and Chloe Flora, but in two weekends of racing, she’s put together a personal best in the 3k (9:55) and then in the mile (4:59) and the 5k (17:11) on back-to-back days.
Just like Pierantoni, Moore built momentum through the abbreviated 2020 cross country season, capping it with a 4th place finish at the GSC XC Championships. She hasn’t missed a beat and will be looking to attend her first NCAA meet on the track if she can continue her excellent rate of improvement.
Eric: Allie Ludge wins multiple national titles after she most likely would have won at least one last indoor winter had the NCAA meet not been cancelled due to COVID-19.
Nate: I’d like to put my money on Erin Norton to win the 5k this year. Yes, you read that correctly. If my assumptions are right, I’m pretty confident Norton is the type of runner who I wouldn’t want to bet against. I’ll take that to the bank at the end of the season.
John: Christian Noble comes away with three Division 2 records. The 5k, 3k and the mile.