TSR Collaboration
Nov 10, 202214 min
Written by Hannah Thorn, Brett Haffner & Kevin Fischer
Additional edits and commentary by John Cusick & Garrett Zatlin
Kevin: I think Williams will win the team title.
It's obvious that the Ephs aren't the same team from when they lost to RPI in September (which is a good thing). The only team that they have lost to since then has been MIT (TSR #2) and they went on to score just 41 points in a NESCAC field that contains six teams with a good chance of qualifying for the national meet.
RPI has shown time and time again that they are an elite team. They have consistently put together big performances and haven't lost to any D3 opponents this year. That in turn, is why we have them ranked so highly going into this weekend.
But I think when you consider that Williams looks to have three All-American level talents and RPI has two, the firepower of the Ephs might be too much to handle. There may be a drop-off after Williams' top-three, but Charles Namiot and Simon Kissam are solid runners in their own rights. Those two should be high enough in the final results to weather the storm that RPI may be brewing.
Brett: Let me play Devil’s Advocate: I’m taking RPI to bring home the team title.
Williams' upside has continued to improve throughout the season. With John Lucey stepping up as an All-American caliber runner, and Graham Tuohy-Gaydos on the cusp of returning to his usual form, the Ephs have the ability to make a statement this weekend.
However, that relies on some major “ifs” regarding the relative consistency of high-level performances.
I’m going to lean on RPI’s consistency and overall team prowess that they’ve displayed this fall, especially because of the elite exploits from low-sticks Matthew Lecky and Cory Kennedy. If those two men can displace Lucey and Tuohy-Gaydos while maintaining a strong time-spread, then the title could wind up in the Engineers’ grasp.
Ultimately, this battle will be very close and the team title could go either way.
Hannah: When RPI and Williams faced off at the Siena XC Invitational, RPI beat them by 45 points. Graham Tuohy-Gaydos finished 40th, which we know is an "off" performance for him. But even if he was closer to his usual top-10 performance, that would have only accounted for 30 points, give or take.
With that, the race becomes much closer, but RPI still would have had the edge.
Now, it’s months later, but I still think RPI can win this meet. Matthew Lecky will be battling with Elias Lindgren for the win. Meanwhile, RPI’s second scorer, Cory Kennedy, could beat Graham Tuohy-Gaydos, swinging the race in RPI's favor.
The battle will come down to the third, fourth and fifth scorers for each team.
RPI has Patrick Smyth, Connor Wooding and Mitchell Dailey. They normally run in the low 25 minute range. Williams has John Lucey, Charles Namiot and Simon Kissam who run in the mid-to-late 25 minute range. That would theoretically give the edge to RPI to have their five scorers across the line before Williams does, although times aren't a great assessment of talent between multiple courses.
I predict Williams will have their trio of Lindgren, Tuohy-Gaydos and Lucey in before RPI’s top-three, but RPI will take the team title thanks to strong performances by their fourth and fifth scorers.
Kevin: This will probably be the weekend's best and most entertaining matchup.
Washington U. has proven to be a complete team this season and they would be the favorite in most regions. However, they will most likely be 3rd this weekend.
At the Augustana Interregional Invitational, U. of Chicago beat Wartburg (who was TSR #1 at the time) by just three points, but I think Wartburg will get their revenge this week.
The Knights' supporting cast behind Aubrie Fisher kept it tight at the ARC XC Championships and if they can keep that time-spread to 30 seconds again, then they will win.
I will keep an eye on Wartburg's next four scorers and how well they can pack up. What the Maroons have going in their favor is superior sixth and seventh scorers, which means that if the Knights want the win, none of their top-five can slip up or have an "off" day.
Brett: With how back-and-forth the U. of Chicago and Wartburg women have made us felt this season, this weekend's matchup truly feels like a 50/50 tossup.
As Kevin mentioned, I like that the Maroons have that interchangeability in their backend scoring, giving them some options and flexibility.
With that in mind, I’m gonna pick the Maroons to bring home the title, continuing their reign as our TSR #1 team in Division Three.
Considering that the ARC XC Championships were a pretty low-key affair for the Wartburg women, they should be set up to make things fairly interesting. They were able to run pretty well without much competition the other week.
It’s crazy to think that Washington U. could come away with an amazing team performance and only end up in a distant 3rd place in this stacked region.
Hannah: I want to choose the Wartburg women here, but it could go either way between them and U. of Chicago. Like Brett mentioned, I think it benefited Wartburg to have a low-key conference meet. They did not necessarily have to go all-out to win their conference title, unlike U. of Chicago who had to face the Washington U. Bears.
I think the low-stick of Aubrie Fisher in this race could be very important as she’ll be racing for the individual regional title. It’s always nice to start off your team score with a single point.
I will also be looking to see how Frances Schaeffler runs for U. of Chicago. She is normally their first or second scorer, but was only their fourth scoring option on their team and 9th overall at the UAA XC Championships.
If she can rebound this week, then that will be huge for her team.
Either way, whoever wins will be the favorite to win the team title going into the national meet.
Kevin: This realistically won't be a contest and if anything, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps will have to watch their backs to ensure that they don't fall to UC-Santa Cruz or George Fox.
If I did the math right, Pomona-Pitzer would have won the SCIAC title by one point if they had rested their entire top-seven. So this will ultimately be a tune-up for them and may even provide them with an extra opportunity to determine who will take the last couple of spots in their national meet lineup.
Brett: Wow, Kevin’s math proves a strong point there. The gap between the Sagehens and the Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Stags has grown by a strong degree over the last year.
After the SCIAC XC Championships, I have been wondering who will comprise of the seven varsity spots in Pomona-Pitzer’s lineup considering they’ve had so much interchangeability and movement around their scoring positions throughout the entire season.
Ultimately, I'm agreeing with Kevin, this is just a primer race for the Sagehens who don’t face much competition beyond what they’ve seen at their conference meet. They can use this to determine the names who will run for them at the national meet.
Hannah: We have been counting on Pomona-Pitzer qualifying for the national meet since the season ended last year and I don’t plan on stopping now.
I think they could rest their top-three runners of Lucas Florsheim, Derek Fearon and Ian Horsburgh to get them mentally ready for the national meet. Possibly even Colin Kirkpatrick as well depending on their confidence of everyone else.
That might be a touch too far, but like Brett and Kevin have said, the Sagehens have this meet wrapped up before it has even begun.
Kevin: I'm giving a slight advantage to Carleton.
Clara Mayfield should take second individually and Hannah Preisser will likely only be a few spots back from her. The depth for UW-La Crosse might be slightly better than that of Carleton, but not by a ton. And truthfully, that depth probably won't make enough of a difference to offset the star power on Carleton's side anyways.
I don't think we should forget about St. Olaf, either.
Sure, they don't have a true low-stick and they lost to Carleton by 15 points at the MIAC XC Championships, but the tightness of their pack will always keep them competitive, especially in a larger field like this. If a couple of Carleton or UW-La Crosse runners have tough days and fall back, I could see the Oles taking advantage of that.
Brett: Having low-sticks like Clara Mayfield and Hannah Preisser is going to be the x-factor that could lead to Carleton leapfrogging the UW-La Crosse woen for the North regional title this weekend.
Maddie Hannan has been a reliable first scorer for UW-La Crosse this year, but their true strength comes from their second, third and fourth scorers. If their fifth scorer, Jenna Lovejoy, can close the gap in front of her, then the Eagles will be set up for tremendous success.
However, the Eagles not having a true low-stick might give the advantage to Carleton.
But let's suppose that Carleton’s backend scorers aren’t firing on all cylinders. In that case, their relative lack of depth compared to UW-La Crosse might ultimately give the advantage to the Eagles whose storied depth continues to impress in 2022.
Hannah: I am going with Carleton as well.
If we do head-to-head matchups between just these two teams, I think Clara Mayfield will beat Maddie Hannan while Hannah Preisser is going to beat Katelyn Chadwick.
Sophie McManus and Phoebe Ward from Carleton will have to keep track of Maddy Vantassel and Julia Anderson from UW-La Crosse. This is where it becomes a toss-up in my opinion. I can’t see any of these women gapping each other, so it might come down to seconds here.
As for each team's fifth scorer, the Knights have Libby Rowland or Helen Cross while the Eagles have Jenna Lovejoy. Again, this fifth runner battle might be a toss-up. It could come down to whoever can keep it together the best over the final 1k of the race.
Overall, Carleton has done a better job packing up as the season has gone along. At the Blugold Invitational, we saw them lose to St. Olaf largely because they were a bit all over the place. I don't see that happening again.
UW-La Crosse is very good, but I don’t think they have enough firepower to beat Carleton.
Kevin: Both of these teams were close to landing a spot in our latest rankings update and I think either could move into our top-10 with a win.
Some other solid teams in this region will be fighting for at-large berths to the national meet, but the title should come down to John Carroll and Case Western.
However, at the same time, I think that gauging whether or not the winner of this region is a top-10 team will ultimately depend on how the other regional meets play out.
For example, if there is a big scoring margin between Carnegie Mellon and Johns Hopkins, then the loser there would probably drop out of our rankings and be replaced by the winner here...unless another "Just Missed" team has a massive day.
Brett: The Case Western men have been a bit all over the place this season, especially when looking at many of their top scorers.
Joseph Jaster has only raced three times, but is rounding into great form after his win at the UAA XC Championships.
Meanwhile, Jack Begley has been the consistent piece who Case Western has needed, serving as the top scorer until his conference meet where he finished 8th overall and served as his team's second scorer.
Robert St. Clair had an incredible race at the Rowan Interregional Border Battle, finishing 4th overall and very close behind Begley, but struggled at the UAA XC Championships, finishing 21st overall.
If these three men can all finish relatively close to each and have their best races on the same day, then that’s what it would take for this team to jump into the top-10 rankings.
On the other hand, John Carroll needs to be a little more potent after Alex Phillip’s guaranteed low-stick -- there’s no other way to put it.
If they can win the regional meet by a decent margin over Case Western, then the Blue Streaks should be in consideration for a top-10 ranking in Division Three.
Hannah: For John Carroll, the answer is pretty obvious.
They need some more depth behind Alex Phillip. He will never score more than three points for his team, so they just have to fill out the lineup around him.
Barrett Scheatzle and Ethan Domitrovich are decent second and third options, but where are the all-important fourth and fifth scorers for John Carroll? At the OAC XC Championships, it was Adam Shah and Ryan Champa taking those spots. But at the Rowan Interregional Border Battle, Dominic Delmoro was also in the conversation.
For a team that did not race much this fall, I want to see more consistency behind Phillip. If they can beat Case Western soundly, then that might make their case for our top-10 a bit stronger.
Similarly, Case Western also needs to show some consistency. They don’t have the luxury of an elite low-stick like Alex Phillip to keep their team scoring alive. Like Brett mentioned, they have had three different lead finishers this season.
Early-on it was Robert St. Clair, who has seemed to falter as of late. In two meets, it was Jack Begley who seems to be the most consistent runner for this team. At the UAA XC Championships, it was suddenly Joseph Jaster.
This team is just a little all over the place and even if they win, I am not sure that I would put them in our top-10. Of course, if they show up and dominate, then I might change my mind.
By nature, I value consistency over a flash-in-the-pan performance.
Kevin: These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Williams is a team that is continually improving while Amherst has been a stagnant team as of late.
With that being said, Amherst has already beaten this same Williams team this season, so they have a chance.
If Mary Kate McGranahan and Sophia Wolmer can both have good days while their final three scorers stay relatively tight in the final results, then the Mammoths have a shot at the upset.
On the other hand, if the top-four women in Williams' lineup can replicate their NESCAC performance while their fourth and fifth scorers finish within 30 seconds of each other, then the Ephs will probably repeat as Mideast regional champions.
Brett: Williams placing four runners in the top-eight at the NESCAC XC Championships was a brilliant statement to continue their positive momentum this season.
If they can get a fifth scorer to finish right behind that pack of four, then that very well might be the boost they need to secure the regional title over Amherst.
The Mammoths, on the other hand, could heavily benefit from Mary Kate McGranahan and Sophia Wolmer performing at their best on the same day.
They’ve varied over the last few weeks on who has run well, but having two low-sticks, similar to Carleton situation, could really carry them in a bigger meet setting like this.
But given Williams’ momentum and Amherst’s inconsistency, I’ll give the nod to Williams.
Hannah: We’ve been comparing these two teams all season long, having gone back and forth over which team gets the nod in our rankings.
When Mary Kate McGranhan runs well, we tend to give Amherst the spot. But at the NESCAC XC Championships, the Williams women had better depth. They overwhelmed Amherst which is something to keep an eye on this weekend.
One key to that victory was senior Alexandra Bettez. She finished in 8th place and as the fourth scorer for Williams. If you compare that to her Connecticut College Invitational, she was not even in their top-seven. Her emergence at the NESCAC XC Championships gives this Williams team a bump in terms of their scoring lineup.
That said, Amherst will very much have a shot at this regional title. With McGranhan, Sophia Wolmer, Allison Lounsbury, Julia Schor and Daphne Theiler all running well, they are a good (and young) team. That youth has seemed to rear its head as of late with some inconsistent performances from the Mammoths, but it also offers great upside.
At the end of the day, I am going with Williams. Call it recency bias or whatever you will, but I have confidence in their older, more stable team.
Kevin: For the men, I am looking forward to seeing if Sam Acquaviva can upset Tyler Morris at the East Regional championship.
On the women's side, I am curious to watch Mary Kate McGranahan match up against Morgan Lee for the first time this season.
Brett: I’m excited to see how the battle between Christopher Collet and the Midwest region. Collet has been on fire all year long and this will be another great test to continue his undefeated streak against Division Three competition in 2022.
In the Midwest region, I’m also curious to see what the women’s individual race looks like after Kassie Parker finishes. In particular, I’m curious to see where names such as Aubrie Fisher, Emily Konkus and Anna Kenig-Ziesler place.
Hannah: For the men, I want to see who wins the Mideast region. Elias Lindgren or Matthew Lecky? Lindgren has gotten the win every time so far, but maybe that changes this this weekend.
For the women, I am interested in the North regional meet. Fiona Smith, Clara Mayfield, Maddie Hannan and Carolyn Schult are all in the same race.
For what it's worth, I predict the finish to be in that order, too.
Kevin: For the women, I am looking forward to the team battle in the Great Lakes region. There are three teams who could feasibly win it in Hope, Trine and Calvin. They all finished within 13 points of each other at the MIAA XC Championships and I'm expecting the race to be just as close this weekend.
On the men's side, it will be interesting to see if Wartburg can potentially pull off an upset against a resurgent North Central team. The Cardinals have been one of the breakout teams in Division Three and we will see if they're truly back after their performance on Saturday.
Brett: On the women’s side, I’m excited to see how the matchup between Claremont-Mudd-Scripps and Pomona-Pitzer ends.
The 22 point to 34 point win by the Athenas over the Sagehens at the SCIAC XC Championships was much closer than expected. I wonder how the Sagehens, with some great momentum on their side, will fare at the West regional meet.
On the men’s side, I am also curious to see the Midwest regional battle with Wartburg and North Central. Will Wartburg rebound from a few “off" days from a few scorers at the ARC XC Championships? Or will this be North Central’s victory for the taking?
Hannah: I need to get into these group chats earlier so I am not just reiterating what Brett and Kevin say.
Since I have to be different, I will say the East region for the women. MIT had a pretty easy go of it at the NEWMAC XC Championships. They are led by Gillian Roeder, who is getting better as the season progresses.
On the flip side, Bates had a tougher challenge at the NESCAC XC Championships, facing off against Amherst and Williams. They are led by Jillian Richardson who we have had in our "Just Missed" or "Honorable Mention" sections for a few weeks now.
For the men, I like the Mid-Atlantic region. Johns Hopkins vs Carnegie Mellon. In our team rankings, we have those squads listed at TSR #9 and TSR #10.
I feel confident that Carnegie Mellon's depth will be enough to squeak out a victory.