TSR Collaboration
Jan 1611 min
Updated: Jan 17
Written by Kevin Fischer, Conor Daly & Gavin Struve
Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin
While the holiday season and the beginning of January is an understandably quiet period during the track season, school is nearly back in session and this past weekend brought a slew of notable races and results. Our panel of Division Three writers gathered to assess the new developments and what they mean at the dawn of the new year.
Emma Kelley (Washington U.) ran a 2:06 mark (converted to a 2:05) over the half-mile distance in a 10-second win on Friday. On a scale of 1 to 10 (10 being the highest), how likely is it that the two-time national champ betters her 2:04.41 personal best this season?
NOTE: TSR's D3 contributor, Conor Daly, has abstained from answering this question due to a conflict of interest.
Kevin: I'm going to say a "4", but that shouldn't take away from everything that she's been accomplishing and how she currently looks.
The Bears will only race on banked tracks twice this season: once at the UAA Championships and once at the indoor national meet. In my eyes, those are the only opportunities that she realistically has to break that mark.
Now, normally, I would say that a heavy favorite in a championship setting wouldn't run a particularly fast time by their standards, but that doesn't apply to Emma Kelley given her history of "sending it" at big meets regardless of whether or not the field goes with her.
Even so, I think it will be difficult for her to reach a 2:04.41 mark in either of those settings. But I do see her comfortably winning the indoor national title and ultimately dipping into the 2:03 range on the outdoor oval.
Gavin: I largely agree with Kevin's assessment. And given that she likely won't have more than a few opportunities (if that) between now and mid-March to race the 800 meters, I'd put the probability of Kelley running a low 2:04 mark at a "3" out of 10.
I do, however, think it's more likely than not that she betters her personal best by the end of this academic year. And the fact that we're even suggesting a Division Three woman could run under 2:05 on the indoor oval this winter speaks to Kelley's case as an all-time half-mile talent at this level.
Plus, the fact that she's running as fast as she already is at this point in the season may make our estimates look too conservative in hindsight.
Garrett: I think both Gavin and Kevin make fair cautionary points when it comes to Kelley's potential to run a new 800-meter PR this winter. However, I'll put my assessment at a "5" out of 10. In other words, I think it will likely be a coin flip as to whether or not she eclipses her current 2:04.41 PR.
Yes, the Washington U. star will only have two opportunities to race on a banked track this season, but I don't think it's unrealistic for her to run low-2:04 for 800 meters at one of those two meets, especially the NCAA Indoor Championships. She already seems to be approaching her top form from prior seasons and she's been unafraid to run from the front in the past.
Of course, like Gavin and Kevin mentioned, Kelley will have only a couple of advantageous opportunities to chase a new PR -- and that probably wouldn't come at the UAA Championships. And given that she's so much better than the rest of Division Three, it's hard to imagine someone legitimately pushing this all-time middle distance star.
Allison Sibold (St. Lawrence) just ran a massive mile PR of 4:51 (which converted to 4:49) and now sits at NCAA #1 in the event for Division Three. After finishing as a top-half All-American this past fall, do you think it’s more likely than not that she does so on the oval as well?
Kevin: This result was obviously highly impressive, and in the moment, it felt very surprising.
But looking back, I'm not so sure it should have been as stunning as it initially felt. Sibold has often seemed like someone who should be at her best in the mile, particularly after running a really solid 4:33 mark over 1500 meters last spring. Her improvement on the cross country course this past fall ended up being the harbinger of a big leap in her main event.
I don't see any reason why Sibold can't be an All-American in the mile this winter. In fact, she could even be a dark horse national title contender if the chips fall in the right places! That's why I would say it is more likely than not that she becomes a top-half All-American in the mile this year.
Obviously, she's still an underdog to the likes of Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel, Gillian Roeder and a couple of others, but I think that she could at least give them a scare.
Conor: I’m buying Allison Sibold stock now. That performance was good...really good.
That mark is over a 10-second personal best in the mile for Sibold and over a five-second drop from last spring (if you convert her 1500-meter time to a mile). That’s almost an unheard of breakthrough for someone at this level.
However, I would be remiss if I didn’t bring up the fact that she’s never been to a national meet on the track. It’s a whole new game when you put 10 women who are all (roughly) at the same fitness level in one race. You need an indescribable feel for both the race and your competitors in order to succeed and advance through the preliminary rounds.
And while Sibold could have that ability, she hasn’t had the chance to show us at this level of competitiveness yet, which leaves me a bit uneasy. That's why I'm not sure that I'd pencil her in as a top-half All-American favorite...yet.
Nevertheless, fitness is fitness. A 4:49 converted mile in the first-half of January is outstanding. Couple that with her cross country success and there’s plenty to convince me that Sibold will be a top-eight All-American come March.
Gavin: Make no mistake, this was a massive result. Sibold now holds the fastest mile mark in Division Three by nearly 10 seconds. That would be a significant gap in the 5k, let alone in a distance not even one-third its length and runtime.
And in terms of national standing, that time will likely hold up as a top mark too, even if someone passes her. After all, running 4:49 would have been the NCAA #2 (D3) mark at the end of the 2023 regular season.
The mile is by far the most wide-open distance event (800 meters and up) in the Division Three women's landscape this season, and Sibold has stamped herself as a national title contender. I'm not sure who can match the momentum that she's built after parlaying a breakout cross country season into an elite mile mark.
And frankly, it doesn't really feel like a fluke, either.
Sure, we still have several unanswered questions remaining about Sibold's championship bona fides and poise in such a setting. But given the way that she's thrust herself into an exclusive conversation, I'm willing to say that it's more likely than not she finishes top-four in her optimal distance at the 2024 NCAA Indoor Championships.
Nate Lentz (Williams) was an All-American in the mile last year and just won that event at the Little 3 Indoor Championships with a converted 4:10 mark (NCAA #5). But he also won the 1000 meters at that meet and holds an NCAA #3 time of 8:09 (3k). Which distance(s) should he contest on the national stage assuming that he qualifies in multiple events?
Kevin: I still think the mile is Lentz's best event, albeit by a smaller margin than before.
It's important to note that he won that event by nine seconds this past weekend, so his converted 4:10 mile mark isn't exactly representative of what he is truly capable of. He ran 4:07 last year and 3:48 over 1500 meters last spring -- and I think he has gotten better all around since then.
However, his development in the longer events shouldn't be ignored either, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him earn All-American honors in the 3000 meters. If Williams qualifies in the DMR, I would expect him to run the anchor leg fresh and come back to the 3000 meters the following day. If he's not on a DMR, then I could see the mile/3k double.
Conor: As Kevin mentioned, I think whether Williams qualifies for the DMR plays a huge role in Lentz’s decision. The Ephs also have 1:52 (800) and 3:47 (1500) man, Jinwoo Kang, so having a nationally competitive DMR is not a stretch by any means.
If Lentz has the opportunity to run the DMR, then I think the decision is simple: He runs the DMR on Friday and then the 3k on Saturday as many do.
But if the Ephs do not find themselves as DMR national qualifiers, then Lentz’s decision isn’t so clear. While he may be slightly better at the mile, I think he would be able to place higher on the national stage if he contests the 3k (only).
In the mile, Lentz would be on an even playing field with everyone in terms of the number of races in their legs. And while he could certainly finish top-five in that event, there’s a lot of variability in that race. Not to mention that Bennett Boothe-Genthe looks daunting to go up against right now.
The 3k will feature tons of tired legs from guys who have already run the DMR or the 5k (or even the mile) the day prior. With fresh legs and some really impressive speed, it’s very reasonable to think that Lentz could be at the front of that 3k race and maybe even challenge for the win against some aerobic-centric competition.
Gavin: Lentz has the best kind of problem in front of him (an abundance of strong options), but that doesn't make it any easier to choose where to place his focus in the most important meet of the season.
It's quite possible that Lentz runs something in the 4:05 range or faster over the mile distance and renders this discussion mostly moot. And while I understand Conor's argument to focus on the 3k first and foremost, I think Lentz is too talented to put all of his eggs in one basket, particularly in a distance that he's never raced on the national stage before.
All of Lentz's recent results, with optimal 1k speed and 3k strength, still suggests that the mile is his ideal racing distance. And at the moment, I would lean towards the mile as Lentz's top event at the indoor national meet and decide later on which event to pair with that should he attempt a double.
Sam Acquaviva (MIT) had a slightly underwhelming cross country campaign relative to expectations despite finishing 23rd at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. After recently opening his season with a respectable 8:16 (3k), which is modest compared to his 8:00 PR, what’s his ceiling over the next couple months?
Kevin: I think Acquaviva's ceiling for this indoor track season is to match his personal bests over 3000 meters and 5000 meters and end up as a top-three finisher in either of those events on the national stage.
It's been a while since we've seen that kind of form from him, but he doesn't appear to be all that far off. Sure, an 8:16 (3k) result isn't jaw-dropping, but it's not a bad mark this early-on in the season.
The Engineers have three meets at Boston University on their schedule and all of those will provide really solid, competitive fields for Acquaviva to race in. I'm curious to see how he utilizes that part of the season and how close he can get to his peak form.
Conor: That's a good performance, for sure. But truthfully, this result doesn’t leave me jumping for joy with the idea that Acquaviva has returned to the peak form we once knew. If he soloed this performance or closed really well for the win, then I might be a bit more excited, but neither of those were the case.
Rather, Acquaviva was pulled along by some unattached competitors and ran fairly even splits on his way to a runner-up result. That leaves me believing that this mark is pretty representative of his current fitness level.
Acquaviva could very likely be an All-American, but I can’t really imagine him giving some of the top names from the cross country season a problem. He could very well go on to finish as high as 5th place in either the 3k or the 5k, but for this season, I'm not sure that I see his ceiling going beyond that.
Gavin: I don't see Acquaviva as much of a threat to the title picture in either distance event at the indoor national meet, particularly since he didn't find much success doubling last year when he appeared to be near his peak.
Of course, I would be glad to be proven wrong as another star reenters the title picture.
That being said, Acquaviva could (and probably should) find a backend All-American finish. His cross country season was a bit disappointing compared to what he'd put forth in the past, but it showed he was still competitive towards the top of the sport.
It would take a significant effort and improvement over the coming months to near his personal bests, so Acquaviva's readjusted ceiling is probably a top-half finish in either the 3k or 5k -- or double backend All-American honors.
Kevin: Last year, Grace Hadley qualified for the outdoor national meet in both the 1500 meters and the 5000 meters, but scratched the former to opt for a fresh 5k race. That's why it's no guarantee that she even attempts a double. But if she does, then I think that the 5k/3k double would be the way to go since there are no preliminary heats involved and she would only need to race once per day.
I think she is a comfortable All-American favorite this winter in the 5k, but with the current level of depth and parity in Division Three women's distance running, it's hard to say whether she can double back and earn a top-eight finishes in a second event. She is more than capable of doing so, but those with fresher legs over 3000 meters could very well take advantage of it, especially off of a faster pace.
And that's why I'll take the under, but I do so with hesitation, knowing that Hadley could very easily prove me wrong.
Conor: Grace Hadley has made leaps and bounds fitness-wise over the last year. In the fall of 2022, she was not really close to qualifying for the cross country national meet. Fast forward to this fall, and she finished 4th in the nation.
It’s hard to bet against someone who has been improving at that rate.
And yet...I think I'm going to.
I’m going to take the "under" on this line. While I wish I could be blinded by her recent successes, we’re talking about someone who has only run a single race at a national meet on the track. This inexperience in a national-level setting leaves me just too uncertain to say that she’s going to have the fitness and tactical awareness to pull out two All-American runs in one weekend.
That being said, I do expect her to have the opportunity to prove me wrong. With the 5k seen as her primary event, I imagine that she will double because she has nothing to lose by coming back for the 3k the next day.
Gavin: I'm going to bet on Grace Hadley's rapid trajectory continuing apace and say "over."
The 5k/3k double gives her the best chance at earning double All-American honors and it seems more in line with her strengths. However, we can't entirely rule out the idea of her contesting the mile, particularly when that event seems more wide-open for a top-level finish.
Hadley's range and wealth of options (in terms of event choice) emboldens me to project that she'll not only earn her first All-American finish on the track, but grab two in total.