TSR Collaboration
Oct 29, 202212 min
Additional edits and commentary by John Cusick & Garrett Zatlin
NESCAC | MIAC | WIAC | NEWMAC | SUNYAC | American River | Liberty League
NOTE: The Stride Report was unable to locate entries for the OAC XC Championships or the UAA XC Championships prior to the creation of this article.
Brett: I'm looking forward to seeing the ever-ongoing battle between Fiona Smith (TSR #2) and Clara Mayfield (TSR #3) at the MIAC XC Championships.
Historically, Smith has come out on top more than enough times to count, but I've been very impressed with how Mayfield has run this season. She's continuing to get better and she's had some tremendous solo efforts already this season.
These two will have a true battle in a race where either woman could come out on top.
The WIAC XC Championship will also be a heated battle on the men's side.
Ethan Gregg (TSR #5) and Christian Patzka (TSR #7) are the top talents coming into this race as they are both national-level competitors who have flexed elite-level performances on a consistent basis.
Of course, Gunner Schlender (TSR #19) has been with Patzka all season. And in prior occasions, he has beaten Patzka. He is yet another name to throw into the cauldron.
We've also talked extensively about Isaac Wegner's growth this season. He will also be in the mix, looking to validate his huge 2022 cross country season and potentially catapult himself into that next-tier of true contenders.
The last name who could do some damage is Spencer Schultz from UW-Stout. He rose to the occasion at the Augustana Interregional Invitational, placing 4th overall behind some of the best in the nation in what was a massive breakout race.
Taking down one or two top talents this weekend could do wonders for his stock in our rankings and for his momentum going into the national meet.
Any of those five men could undoubtedly be considered a name to compete for this individual WIAC title. It's going to be a fun race to follow.
Hannah: For the women, I will choose the UAA conference meet.
The U. of Chicago trio of Frances Schaeffler (TSR #14), Anna Kenig-Ziesler (TSR #18) and Lucy Groothuis (TSR #20) and will face off against Annika Urban (TSR #4) from Emory, Vivian Kane (TSR #13) from NYU and Emily Konkus (TSR #12) from Washington U.
This is the most stacked conference meet in the country, and I feel pretty confident saying that. Heck, it's better than most of the meets that we have had all season long! If you get first-team all-conference in this race, you are probably a top-30 talent, nationally.
The newcomer here is Vivian Kane. We noticed her at Paul Short, but the Connecticut College Invitational was where she broke out and secured a monumental win. It will be interesting to see how she performs in her first conference meet against another loaded field.
For the men, I wanted to say WIAC, but instead, I will say NESCAC XC Championships.
Tyler Morris (TSR #4) from Colby is the defending champion, but Williams' Elias Lindgren (TSR #2) is better this year compared to last year. Last year, Morris won the title by a whopping 37 seconds and was almost a minute ahead of Lindgren who finished in 3rd.
But I am predicting a much closer race this year.
We recently saw these two men face off at the Connecticut College Invitational. There, Lindgren took the win. Yes, it was admittedly close as Morris was only seven seconds back, but Lindgren just looks so much sharper and so much more well-rounded in 2022.
We'll see who comes out ahead this year and claims the NESCAC crown.
Kevin: On the men's side, I am looking forward to OAC XC Championships.
Alex Phillip (TSR #1) is obviously the clear favorite to run away with the individual title, but the battle for runner-up will have some fireworks.
Simon Heys (TSR #17) of Wilmington (OH), Cal Yackin (TSR #10) of Otterbein and Jeff Joseph of Mount Union have all produced great performances this season and they each boast some high-level experience in competitive fields.
The last time we saw them all in the same race, Joseph and Yackin weren't necessarily at their best and Heys beat them by substantial margins.
However, there is reason to believe that this race will be much tighter this time around, especially considering that each of their respective teams will most likely be competing against each other for at-large bids to the NCAA XC Championships this fall.
Also, the NESCAC will have a very underrated individual title race for the women, especially since it's not clear who the actual title favorite is.
I would have said that Mary Kate McGranahan (TSR #15) was going to run away with gold a couple of weeks ago, but after her Connecticut College Invitational performance, I'm still unsure if I want to go down that route.
Genna Girard, Jillian Richardson and Sophia Wolmer have all looked pretty strong recently, and those three women all finished in consecutive order at Connecticut College earlier this month (within seven seconds of each other).
This year's NESCAC individual women's title will likely be won by one of those four women, but I don't know who to give the edge to at this time.
Brett: As much as I've been impressed with how the Bears have been running this year, the Maroons will ultimately run away with the UAA title, barring any mishaps.
This race will, however, be an excellent opportunity for Emily Konkus and Lindsay Ott of Washington U. to showcase their low-stick abilities.
Konkus finished ahead of all the Maroon women at the Augustana Interregional Invitational by a decent margin. In contrast, at the same meet, Ott finished close behind the Maroons' low-sticks of Frances Schaeffler and Anna Kenig-Zeisler.
If Ott can finish ahead of U. of Chicago's entire scoring lineup, putting her right with Konkus, then there's potential for the Bears to do significant damage at the UAA XC Championships.
But with the entirety of the Maroons' top-seven being incredibly potent, this will be an incredible challenge for the Washington U. Bears. I don't see them pulling off an upset.
Hannah: I think U. of Chicago will run away with the title. They are just so deep and in smaller fields, that theoretically favors them, especially if they take advantage of any gaps they find in Washington U.'s lineup.
This race will be a good opportunity for Konkus to measure herself against the Maroons' top scoring trio as well as the other top distance talents in this race. But even if she wins, that will not be enough to propel the Bears ahead of Chicago.
I don't see an upset happening, but that's also not to say that Washington U. won't run well.
Kevin: I want to start by giving Washington U. some credit. They have been running so well this season, showcasing a solid combination of firepower at the front of their lineup and depth at their backend.
But as we have already discussed, this U. of Chicago team is on an entirely different level from almost every team in the country. Heck, the Bears had a pretty solid day at Augustana and they were still 43 points behind the Maroons.
Even if a couple of U. of Chicago athletes have "off" days, there should still be someone in the Maroons' pack who will step up. I could be proven wrong, but I think there will be a fairly sizable gap between these two teams this weekend.
Brett: Undoubtedly, the UW-La Crosse men have the most to prove at the WIAC XC Championships.
They are the favorites to bring home the men's team title, but will their backend scoring replicate the promising performances that they had at the Jim Drews Invitational?
Between Ethan Gregg and Isaac Wegner, we should see two top-five individual finishes from the Eagles. They'll have to duke it out against Christian Patzka, Gunner Schlender and Spencer Schultz, but they should bring home a minimal number of points as the Eagles' terrific front-two scorers.
If guys like Corey Fairchild, Parker Huhn and Aidan Matthai can finish within 30 to 40 seconds of Gregg, then the Eagles could look like a top-five team in Division Three.
Of course, even if we don't see a tight time-spread from Gregg to their fifth scorer, the Eagles will still probably win the meet.
The UW-Whitewater men have a solid distance talent in Justin Krause who has been running well as their third scorer. However, the Warhawks lack the necessary depth in their backend scoring to compete at the same level as the Eagles.
The way the whole scoring lineup runs for UW-La Crosse could either set them in a class as a potential podium team or just a top-10 team that has two great low-sticks.
Kevin: Carnegie Mellon has the most to prove. That, however, is not to say that they don't already have a great regular season body of work...because they do.
But among the teams in our top-10, they will face the best competition this weekend.
At the UAA XC Championships, they will face two "Just Missed" teams in Emory and Case Western (both of whom they have already beaten this season), along with an "Honorable Mention" team in Washington U.
The Tartans are the favorites in a very strong field, but they aren't overwhelming favorites like some top-10 teams are. They are walking on shaky-enough ground that another team could take advantage if they slip up.
However, that also means that if they do come away with the crown, it will be a more significant accomplishment and potentially be enough to raise their stock in our rankings.
Hannah: Williams has the most to prove.
They are led by Elias Lindgren and Graham Tuohy-Gaydos (TSR #15), but it feels like they often lacked the necessary depth to match our preseason expectations.
That said, the Ephs should win their conference meet. Although there will be some fast individual challengers, there should not be a deep enough team to beat them.
We'll be monitoring guys like John Lucey, Charles Namiot, Theo Dassim and Will Spollen this weekend, seeing which of those four men can step up for the Ephs.
Freshman Nikhil DeNatale is also in the entries, so we will hopefully see him racing again. DeNatale has been missing from Williams' lineup for the last few races. His last time out was at the Purple Valley Classic in early October.
The rookie could be a solid fifth scorer for the Ephs, but where is his fitness level at after being held out for so long? We'll get the answer to that very soon, I'm sure.
Last year, the Ephs' fifth runner placed 19th overall. If Williams can get all five of their scorers in the top-25 this weekend, then that should be considered a successful outing for them.
Brett: My hunch tells me that it will be a pretty tight battle between the Knights and the Oles.
Both teams have an excellent scoring foundation in their respective varsity packs which have carried each program to a national ranking at some point this season.
Carleton's recent boom stems from their outstanding performance at the Rowan Interregional Border Battle. Meanwhile, the Saint Olaf women flexed a tight-knit team performance at the Connecticut College Invite.
If anything, being in a smaller setting like a conference championship should erase any interference from other top-tier teams and theoretically gives us some really exciting head-to-head battles throughout most of the varsity scoring spots on each team.
However, Carleton has something that Saint Olaf doesn't have: a true low-stick.
We know that Clara Mayfield will have a heated battle with Fiona Smith. That much is a given. But she is going to almost certainly give the Knights a clear scoring edge with firepower that Saint Olaf likely can't match. And that simply puts the Oles at a disadvantage, which is why I have Carleton winning this race.
Kevin: Despite being ranked lower than Carleton, the Saint Olaf women absolutely have a chance to win. The tightness of the Oles' scoring pack has been highly impressive and don't forget that they've already beaten Carleton once this season.
Admittedly, Carleton was missing a couple of notable contributors that day, so that might not mean much...but it does show us that an upset win is possible for the Oles.
Carleton is still the favorite, though. It's hard to imagine Clara Mayfield finishing any worse than 2nd in the individual race, so the Knights will have that reliable low-stick scoring edge no matter what happens further back in the race, which will benefit them greatly.
Hannah: As Brett and Kevin said, this race is a toss-up.
However, I want to be the contrarian and take Saint Olaf.
The last time that we saw them race at the Bluegold Invite, it was the Saint Olaf women who took home the win by 24 points. And while the Carleton women may have been missing a few names, 24 points is still a bit more to make up than some may realize, especially in a top-heavy field.
This time around, Carleton and Saint Olaf will be in a smaller field, so the low-stick presence doesn't have as much of an impact. Instead, it's all about pack-running which is something that Saint Olaf excels at.
Any one of the Oles' top-five runners could be their first scorer on any given day.
They also have performed well all season long. They've never had a bad day. Yes, the Ole did drop out of our rankings recently, but that was only because Carleton had a really good effort that weekend.
And in this scenario, I want to bet on Saint Olaf's consistency.
For Carleton, It's going to come down to whether or not Hannah Preisser and Sophia McManus have good days. Preisser didn't run at the Blugold Invite and McManus had a tough race that day, finishing in 65th.
But since then, Preisser has finished 4th at Rowan and McManus rebounded to finish 5th. If they are in top form, then yes, Carleton can (and probably will) beat Saint Olaf.
Kevin: I'm interested in seeing the return of some big individual names on both the men's and women's sides.
Ezra Ruggles of SUNY Geneseo has not raced in over a month, and his last performance could have been better. However, he is listed on the SUNYAC XC Championship entries, so it appears that he will make a return.
The Knights are a team that still have the potential to be one of the best distance groups in the country if we see Ruggles at his best this year. That's why it will be interesting to see where he is at (fitness-wise) as we enter the postseason.
Amherst's Sidnie Kulik is in a similar situation to Ruggles on the women's side. Her only race this cross country season came at the Little Three Championships on September 17th, but she is entered to race at the NESCAC XC Championships.
Amherst had a tough day at Connecticut College Invitational the other week, but Kulik's return could be the spark they need to get back to competing at the level that we know they can reach.
When an athlete misses multiple meets as these two individuals have, you aren't always sure where their fitness will be when they come back. However, in a best-case scenario, they can both make huge impacts.
Hannah: I am looking forward to some upsets.
They don't happen often, but they are very exciting when they do happen. Because no top-10 men's teams are racing each other, that will be difficult, but not impossible.
The women's side, however, is more likely to have at least one.
I will stick to the same conference for my upsets and look at the WIAC meet in my hometown of La Crosse, Wisconsin.
Now, let me start this out by saying I'm not a betting woman. But if I were, then I would bet that the UW-Eau Claire women would beat the UW-La Crosse women and that the men of UW-Whitewater would beat UW-La Crosse.
I would parlay that and I like to think that the line would be somewhere around +600.
And yes, Garrett made me say this, but that betting scenario is strictly hypothetical.
Anyways...
When it comes to the women, I think Carolyn Schult can lead the Blugolds over UW-La Crosse. That will truthfully be a tough challenge as the Eagles' greatest strength is depth, but UW-Eau Claire has an excellent low-stick. If Naomi Long and Keeley Behr can have good days and place in the top-10, then they have a chance at the upset.
For the men, UW-La Crosse is good, but we have seen them struggle (at times) to fill the backend of their lineup this season. They are, however, led by the duo of Ethan Gregg and Isaac Wegner, two guys who are among the best names in this field.
But this is an upset pick and for that reason, the team with the best chance of upsetting them is UW-Whitewater. Christian Patzka, Gunner Schlender and Justin Krause are a formidable trio for the Warhawks to possibly upset the Eagles.
Brett: Here are a few questions I'd like to see answered this weekend...
Will Henry Pick make a grandiose return to defend his individual SCIAC title?
Will the Amherst women bounce back after a tough Connecticut College Invite?
Or are the Williams women trending in a great direction to win?
Who wins the men's team title in the UAA XC Championships? Carnegie Mellon, Emory, Case Western or Washington U.?