TSR Collaboration
Mar 6, 20219 min
With the NCAA D2 Indoor Championship entries officially out, we thought now would be a good time to look back at who is running what and evaluate some of the more surprising scratches. Let's jump right into it...
NOTE: Schools racing in the DMR are allowed one alternate who can be available for the relay, so it is possible that some athletes currently slated to run in the DMR will not actually be running in the relay.
Eric: With no DMR to worry about, this is the right call from Noble. With each event on a separate day, this looks like an even better decision from the Flames' collegiate record holder. He’s run extremely fast this season, but honestly, all of those races turned into glorified time trials. He’s been in more competitive races before, but with this season having him exclusively focused on time, someone might be able to catch him sleeping as he looks to claim his first national title. Better to play it safe and try only two events, especially with such minimal rest between the distance races.
Nate: I'm not at all surprised that Noble’s only contesting two races. It makes sense from a practical standpoint to consolidate his efforts. With how much the odds are in his favor in the 5k and 3k, he should be able to lock up two NCAA titles.
Throughout the season, Noble has proven that he’s got all of the tools he needs to fend any off his competitors. Strength? Obvious from day one. Leg speed? Four-flat mile. Range? just look at what he did this season. If either the 5k or the 3k is an honest race, then that’s just all the more in Noble’s favor as he’s shown time and time again that he can run alone.
John: I do think it’s somewhat surprising that Noble opted for just two races. There were talks of him tripling and potentially even quadrupling at NCAA's, although the altered national meet schedule makes that far more difficult.
Still, this is most likely the best scenario for Noble given that everyone is likely aiming to stop him from winning an NCAA title. I think he’s set himself up nicely for a very strong day one, with the ability to return on day two with the same amount of firepower. The concern is that everyone else is doing the same.
We will see if he can stay fresh enough to hold off a similar field twice.
Eric: I honestly don’t believe that the Lakers' think like that. They know that they have the best DMR team and are going to trot out some of the best runners in the NCAA even if they’ve already run a race. Their confidence is blinding and that’s a good thing.
I tried to reason with having the three distance runners (Ludge, O’Malley and Chapko) opt-out to focus on their individual events, but couldn’t find a situation that fits. Besides the DMR, Chapko is running the 800 and the 4x400 while both Ludge and O’Malley are running the mile and 3k.
So in that case, everyone will have run a race before they run the DMR. Despite that, my bet is still on the ladies from Allendale to take home the gold.
Nate: I don’t think there are any individuals on that GVSU DMR team that should have scratched the relay to stay fresh for their open events. If anything, the only one who I think should have made a scratch of any sort would be Allie Ludge. She’s slated to double in the mile and 3k. I feel that her running the DMR won’t significantly impact her odds of winning a title in either open event, it’s just a matter of which one she’d prefer to go for.
I’d say Ludge's odds are higher in the 3k only on the grounds that there’s just one person ahead of her in the national rankings whereas the pack ahead of her in the mile is much more crowded.
Granted, she’ll have to go through both Celine Ritter and Lauren Bailey in the 3000 meters, but when it comes to opting out of the DMR? No, I don't think that's the right move. This GVSU DMR team is so good that it would be a waste for them to not go all-in on the relay. It doesn’t harm their individual title odds much either, so why not?
John: I agree that I don’t think any of the GVSU women should have opted for solely another race other than the DMR. I think all three distance-oriented women are going to have success at the NCAA meet regardless of whether or not they run in the DMR.
You clearly want Allie Ludge as the anchor of this team, and in prior articles, we mentioned how perfect O’Malley was for the first leg of this relay as well. Chapko might be the only one who you could say should have dropped the DMR to focus on the 800 due to her inexperience, but the DMR might actually be the best shot she has at winning an NCAA title in her freshman season.
Eric: Oh, that second day will be tough for sure. I can see a scenario where he simply just follows the pack in the 3000 meters and hopes that it is tactical, especially if he got the results that he wanted from the DMR and the mile. I admire his willingness to go for it on paper and hopefully he’s been doing workouts that mimic the short recovery period between races.
Nate: If Luke Julian pulled that off, it’d definitely be something. At the very least, I don’t see him getting through it without having any super spiritual moments in his head at least once during the meet.
The mile prelims and DMR anchor isn’t terrible. He’ll have about two hours to recover. Then about a full day before the mile finals. The thing is that we’re talking about cranking out three fast miles within a span of 24 hours. I’d be surprised if anyone could do that without hurting at all after.
And then adding a 3k to his schedule to top it all off? Even if that race is tactical, he’ll be hard-pressed to hang around for the kick after his previous workload. In conclusion, Julian will certainly be struggling physically if he goes through with it, but “pain is temporary” I guess.
John: I don’t think this is a mistake. In fact, this was most likely the plan before Julian even set foot on a track this season. After successful indoor and outdoor seasons in 2019, it was clear where Julian’s intentions lied and he’s showing us once again. He has already done the double back in 2019 where he ran the DMR anchor leg and then came back on day two for the 3k.
The only concern I have is the amount of time between the mile final and then his 3k race on day two. There’s just under an hour after the mile concludes for him to get ready for his longest race of the weekend after he’s raced three times.
Again, I think he is going to be fine and he will race well, but if he does falter at all, then we can likely pinpoint the reasoning.
Eric: If Uwajaneza runs well in the 5k and is the anchor leg for her DMR, then she’s got a big decision to make. If that West Texas A&M distance medley relay is behind everyone else by a lot, then the West Texas A&M star could either try to make up ground or simply cruise to the finish line in an effort to conserve energy for the 3000 meters. It's not like she has the mile finals AND a 3k final to worry about on day two, so I don't dislike the idea of her trying the 5k/DMR on day one. However, I also think that West Texas A&M may potentially allow for an alternate to enter that relay instead.
Nate: I feel like this is one of the boldest decisions I have seen an athlete make in regards to event choice at a meet. I feel like the 5k and the DMR alone are already not in her favor. While she is getting the longer, more tactical race out of the way first, Uwajaneza will still expend a lot of energy in that 5k. Then she’ll have to run an anchor leg after that. While that anchor would be shorter than her 5k, that's still a harder effort.
Uwajaneza will already have that 5k under her legs and isn’t even getting a full hour to recover before having to run a fast mile. So if she’s intending to compete as part of that DMR, I don’t think she gets away without seeing some sacrifice come via her 3k the next day. I wouldn't be surprised if an alternate is used in her place on that relay.
John: This is a tough decision for West Texas A&M. On the indoor oval, Uwajaneza’s best race is the 5k and she showed that at the Lone Star Conference meet when she soloed her 16:42 at altitude. She will likely have to work as hard (or harder) for her to come away with an NCAA title in the 5k.
The Buffaloes don't appear to have anyone faster (or near) Uwajaneza on their roster when it comes to running the mile. We could very well see Uwajaneza not race the DMR to focus on the 3k, but I don’t think it will happen.
Just like Caroline Kurgat did a couple of years ago, this attempt is feasible. Is Uwanajeza on the level of Kurgat? No, probably not, but if she pulls off this triple then she’ll be pretty dang close.
Eric: After looking at who got in, I couldn’t find anyone who I didn’t think should be there, so I’ll use this time to recap just missed scenarios instead. Jennifer Comstari (Southern Indiana) was one spot off from qualifying in the 3k, but instead, she’s running only the 5k.
Meanwhile, Davonte Jett-Reynolds is the lone Adams State runner in the 3000 meters and there isn't even an Adams State runner in the 5000 meters. If you would’ve asked me at the beginning of the season which Adams State runner would be qualified for the NCAA Championships in either of those events, I would’ve put my money on Carson Bix, especially after seeing him come off of the Sound Running Track meet where he ran 13:44 for 5000 meters.
Nate: I get Celine Ritter scratching the mile as it makes sense wanting to have the 3k title to match the record. There’s also the fact that she has very strong competitors in the event, especially looking at Lauren Bailey and Allie Ludge. All of that makes sense. The GVSU duo of Isaac Harding and Tanner Chada scratching the mile on the men’s side also makes sense.
However, if there’s anything that still has me scratching my head, it’s Elysia Burgos scratching the mile. I understand that she's anchoring the DMR, but that was a surprising choice. Grand Valley State's DMR is lethal and I don’t see how any squad overtakes them, even a squad with a fresh and committed Burgos on the anchor. As such, I also feel that it’s worth letting Burgos take a crack at the mile prelims as she’d be a strong candidate to advance to the finals at the very least.
John: Ritter scratching the mile feels very curious to me. The last time out, she set the D2 record in the 3k, meaning that she was likely in better shape than she was when she ran 4:44 in late January. They don’t have a DMR team, so her scratching the mile leaves her with just one event over the course of two days. It’s clear that she wants to win the 3k, but I think she had a strong chance at winning both the mile and 3k despite the competition that she was going to face.