TSR Collaboration
Feb 25, 20219 min
NOTE: Please note that the GLIAC performance lists and entries were not released prior to the publication of this article. At this time, TSR only has entries for the RMAC Championships, so speculation was used in some instances in order to produce content.
Eric: It would be a great story for CarLee Stimpfel to win a conference title on his home track, but that is definitely easier said than done. The Lakers have two really good runners in Tanner Chada and Isaac Harding who are truly amongst the best in all Division 2. I can see one of the Lakers winning the 3k while the other takes the 5k. However, if Stimpfel were to be in both the 3k/5k, his best shot at gold will be the 5k as that is when he would be the most fresh. So yes, I think Stimpfel wins the 5k.
John: I do agree with Eric that if we were to see Stimpfel in both the 3k/5k over the weekend, his best shot to win would be in the 5k. The only issue with that is if Chada and Harding were to contest the 5k as well. If they did, then that likely means that they would be fresh for that race.
The reality is that Chada and Harding may split up their events, leaving Stimpfel only needing to hold off one of these Grand Valley State athletes, depending on the race.
I am a big believer in this Saginaw Valley State athlete as he has progressed incredibly well from his freshman to sophomore year. In a normal season, we’d likely be talking about how big of a breakout performer he’s been. Stimpfel has shown that he can beat some of the best in D2 in prior races, so I’ll go out on a limb and say he’ll do it again this weekend if given the chance.
Nate: I think I have to say "no" on this one. I can’t help but think about the implications of the team conference race in this one and I think that the Lakers duo will both take on the 5k, in which case, the odds are statistically in favor of one of those two taking the title over Stimpfel.
That leaves the 3k in which both Lakers would be favored over Stimpfel, at least on paper. However, and maybe I’m horribly wrong on this, I also think it’s possible that the GVSU duo splits their racing duties between the 3k and the mile.
Even with that possibility in mind, when it comes to GVSU maximizing points, I think the Lakers have to have both Harding and Chada doubling, with both toeing the line for the 5k as part of their racing duties. GVSU’s depth in the 5k isn’t as formidable as it is in the 3k and mile which is why Harding and Chada will likely toe the line for the longest race of the weekend.
Simply put, the Lakers can split up racing responsibilities in a variety of different ways. If they were to do that, then they would likely prevent Stimpfel from a conference title in whichever race he toes the line for. The 5k will be Stimpfel's greatest shot at a title, but I have a feeling that the Lakers would still put someone in front of him.
Eric: It has to be Taryn Chapko. The true freshman has run lights out thus far and if she’s entered in the 800 meters, I don’t see anyone knocking her off aside from Allie Ludge as no other GLIAC team has anyone in the top-17, nationally. Plus, GVSU usually loads up the distance events (3k/5k), and once they do that, it’s essentially anyone’s race in my mind as it sometimes turns into a glorified time trial for the Lakers.
Nate: Taryn Chapko has to be the next-best favorite to win her event. In this case, I think it’s because she has the least competition from her own teammates. GVSU has five women who are neck-and-neck in the mile and at the conference level, hold the top-five spots in the 5k and the top-nine spots in the 3k. That leaves the 800 meters in which Chapko has a three-second gap on Ludge. It's also the only distance event where the GVSU women don’t have a near-monopoly on the top-five scoring positions.
John: I immediately want to jump in and say that Hannah Roeske would be next on my list, but she’ll likely have to face-off against Allie Ludge in both of her primary events unless she moves up to the 5k for the weekend. I don’t think that’s going to happen, so as Eric and Nate have said, it’s most likely that Taryn Chapko takes home the 800 meter title.
She’s got three seconds on Ludge and it’s likely that Ludge opts to race the mile and 3k for her individual events, giving Chapko the green light to take home her first individual title in just her first season.
Nate: I’m rocking with Tony Torres for this one. He has extensive experience with RMAC Championship racing and just had a breakout cross country season, culminating in a win at the D2 National Cross Country Invite. It was only a matter of "when" we’d see things translate to the track for this Colorado Mesa junior.
Torres ran his mile seed-time earlier this year, so I’d imagine that he’s rounding into top form just about now. Torres has only gotten stronger as evidenced by his cross season and recent 3k PR, so I think that newfound strength combined with his experience gives him the edge in this race.
I don’t think there’s anybody else in the field who matches up with him resume-wise.
Eric: Who’s heard of David Cardenas from Adams State? Well, if you haven't, you will soon know his name. The sophomore middle distance runner is my pick to win the mile. Yes, he hasn't raced a ton this season, but Adams State as a program didn't put a lot of meets on their schedule.
Still, Cardenas has made the most of his races as he has a 4:06 converted mile to his name in addition to his 4:08/1:54 double at sea level. These are all solid times and I do think he’s slipped through the cracks in terms of the recognition that he deserves.
Don't worry Dave, I got you.
John: I think that this race is going to be a rather good one despite the top names not being there. Like Nate said, Tony Torres has been constantly improving and it finally looks like he’s got a clear shot at an RMAC title.
I do, however, agree with Eric that David Cardenas is a real threat to Torres, especially if he doesn’t have to do any work to stay near the front. Both have converted marks of 4:06, but Cardenas’ has had the luxury of heading to Kansas where he ran 4:08 and figured out what it felt like to run sub-4:10 without a conversion.
Other threats who are listed to race include Andrew O’Keefe and Trent Cochran. O’Keefe finished just behind Cardenas at their home meet, leaving him only three hundredths of a second behind while Cochran just ran 4:17 at Colorado Mines. The NCAA won’t accept Cochran’s time due to a timing glitch, but if it received a conversion, he’d be leading the RMAC with a 4:05 mile mark.
For what it’s worth, I’ve got Tony Torres making a statement in Spearfish as he’ll head back to Colorado with an RMAC title.
Eric: I’ll take Layla Almasri with the upset. She is currently undefeated on the season and I think she wants to keep it that way. Granted, she has yet to compete in a bigger invitational, but the RMAC Championships will be a good test.
Another question I have is: How will Norton handle being the title favorite? She has done a very solid job of winning the races that she's been expected to win and gave us a real treat when she won the 3k at the Ichabod Invite. But can she pull off the win at the always loaded RMAC Championships? I’ll say she doesn’t as Almasri gets her at the line.
Nate: Give me Erin Norton. She has won almost every race she’s toed the line for this year. The only exception to this is the mile at the Ichabod Invite where she placed 5th against the likes of Stephanie Cotter and Yasmine Hernandez in an event that’s not her specialty. Yet, even then, Norton demonstrated her ability to drop down in distance, cracking the five-minute barrier.
If we’re looking at 3k’s specifically, Norton is undefeated on the year. Granted, she’s only lined up for two of them. It’s a small sample size, but in those two races, she managed to run top-tier times and beat names like Elysia Burgos and Mackenna Cavanaugh.
Norton was a comfortable runner-up finisher to Zoe Baker at the RMAC Championships in cross country, has multiple provisional marks, has won numerous races and always competes to the line. She checks all the boxes, and as a result, I think Norton checks off being a conference champion this weekend.
John: We’re in a unique situation as all four of the women listed in this question are signed up to run the anchor leg on the DMR and then come back and race the 3k the next day. BUT, both Almasri and Robinson are expected to appear in the open mile.
This means that Norton and Doucette will have fresher legs when they toe the line. With that known, I think we are going to see either Norton or Doucette take the lead early-on and see who can hang with the pace.
It’s going to be extremely tough to take down Norton. She’s coming off a weekend of setting personal bests in the mile and the 3k. The icing on the cake for this indoor season will be when she swipes an RMAC crown from a Western Colorado athlete.
Eric: The GLIAC 3k on the women's side. It will be interesting to see who comes out on top if the GVSU contingent of Allie Ludge, Klaudia O’Malley, Hannah Roeske, Olivia Brian and Jessica Gockley are all running. Allie Ludge is definitely the favorite, but don't count out O’Malley or Brian as they have times that are not too far off from what Ludge has run this season.
Nate: I, for one, am looking forward to the NSIC women’s 1k that I already spoke about in Part One of our group chat. There are seven women under the three-minute barrier and the reigning champ isn’t the top or even the second seed heading into it.
But what really draws my attention to this race is the fact that the 1k isn’t a contested event at Nationals. In my eyes, that makes this particular 1k a boom-or-bust event.
On one hand, there’s no real need to race too hard. Every runner could opt to take the tactical approach, this is a championship race after all. Winning is what counts, there’s no other 1k race to qualify for.
On the other hand, this is a prime opportunity to run fast. All seven women under the three-minute barrier here would place within the top-75 on the All-College leaderboard for this year (that’s regardless of division).
No one’s racing another 1k after this one for a while, so why not go for it? You’d be hard-pressed to find a better field of runners to do just that and the stakes are high enough with a conference crown on the line.
John: I am actually looking forward to watching the men’s mile in the RMAC. There’s never been a RMAC champion at the middle distance level in Colorado Mesa’s history and that could very much change this weekend. Plus, I think we see a huge breakthrough for some of those athletes with converted marks. I already picked Torres in our earlier section, but I’ll pick him again in the narrowest of margins over Cardenas and company.
On the women’s side, I’m looking forward to the women’s 3k within the G-MAC. The trio of Mackenna Curtis-Collins, Alexa Leppelmeier and Maryssa Depies has me extremely intrigued. All three have seen improvements upon their 3k time this season and if they all lineup against each other this weekend, then we could see a very good race unfold.