TSR Collaboration
Feb 24, 20219 min
D2 conference weekend is quickly approaching, so our TSR crew thought that it would be appropriate to put together a mass preview of sorts with our classic group chat-style approach.
NOTE: Please note that not all performance lists and entries were released for some of these conference championships prior to the publication of this article. At this time, TSR only has entries for the G-MAC and for the NSIC men, so speculation was used in some instances in order to produce content.
Eric: The women's mile could be one to watch as a pair of Augustana Vikings in Nicolette Schmidt and Riley McGrath may end up going head-to-head against each other. Only three-hundredths of a second separate the two. Also factoring into the mix will be Taylor Hestekin of U-Mary and Callin Naddy of Augustana as they have times just a couple of seconds off of Schmidt and McGrath. On paper, this has the potential to be a super close race if all/most of the accomplished names that we just mentioned end up entering toeing the line for the mile.
As for the upset, this is a bit unlikely, but Austin Miller (Augustana) is set to run multiple events this weekend. Could that make him vulnerable to an upset in the mile? His teammate Evan Johnson has a seasonal best of 4:09 which is in the ballpark of Miller’s 4:07. If it comes down to the wire, could Johnson use his 1000 meter speed to sprint past Miller?
John: I am excited to watch a 3k battle between Alec Kray of Augustana and Nadir Yusuf of MSU-Moorhead. Yusuf was the NSIC 3k title winner last season while Kray finished 5th. The good news entering this weekend is that both athletes look to be in the best shape of their lives. Kray just set personal bests in the 5k and 3k while Yusuf has followed suit, producing personal bests of his own in the 3k and mile.
I’m not sure if this is going to be the fastest race of the weekend, but it could be one of the tightest races in terms of finishes. Yusuf has been a strong finisher during championship seasons before and there’s no reason to doubt that he’ll do it again this season.
I think where we see a potential upset in the NSIC is in the women’s mile assuming that the top names actually toe the line for that distance. There are four women in the mile who are separated by just a couple of seconds at the moment.
I think Taylor Hestekin sneaks out with a win this weekend over the two Augustana women of Nicolette Schmidt and PJ English. Her times haven’t gotten all the way back to where she was as a freshman, but she still holds better personal bests across the board.
These women have all run similar times this season, but I think the edge is given to Hestekin as she has better foot speed with her 2:09 PR. Granted, she ran that mark back in 2018 on an outdoor track, but with championship season here, her foot speed should be returning.
Nate: I’ve gotta agree with John that the women’s mile seems to be the most likely race to produce an upset (assuming the top seeds actually toe the line for it). U-Mary’s Taylor Hestekin sits at NSIC #3 on the conference leaderboard and already went toe-to-toe with the two Augustana runners who sit above her. When looking at her personal best of 2:09 for 800 meters, Hestekin has the speed to upend her Viking rivals.
The U-Mary ace has also notched some solid performances in the 1000 meters so far this year, but still hasn’t touched her personal best in the event, suggesting that she’s got more in the tank in the speed department. This conference championship setting could prove to be the race where we see that come full-circle.
Speaking of the women's 1000 meters, I also expect that to be the main race to watch. Hestekin has been regularly doubling this year, frequently running the 1k in numerous meets. I’m hoping she chooses to run the 1k at her conference meet and go for the title defense because the top seven women in this field are all under the three minute barrier.
To top it off, Hestekin, the reigning champ herself, isn’t even the top seed in this race (or even the second seed). Instead, she's the third-best seed. Her PR still better than top seed Callin Naddy.
Regardless, I think no matter who wins, it could be considered an upset. Hestekin by virtue of her status as the champ and her top-tier PR, and Callin Naddy by virtue of being the top seed heading into this year’s championship.
Eric: I’m picking Seth Simonson as he has progressed throughout the season and is running his best during the month of February. However, both Lopers have almost identical times, so it's really a coin flip at this point.
It's a similar situation for the Blue Tigers duo of May and Beckford. May has run better of late, but Beckford took the victories earlier in the season and was better in longer events like the mile. In the end, I'll take Beckford, but I don't think there's a right or wrong answer.
John: Let’s make this quick and semi-easy. I’ll take Wes Ferguson and Chrissani May.
I was skeptical of Ferguson earlier this season when he ran the fastest mark in the NCAA early on. Then he ran 1:11 for the 600 yards and followed that up with a 2:29 for 1000 meters. Both are respectable marks. He also gets the benefit of actually running 1:50 on the track before. Simonson, his teammate, has run 1:52, but sits in front of him on the MIAA leaderboard due to track conversion.
As for May, she has run a second faster than Ann-Beckford this season, and that was her personal best. The two teammates have basically had the same indoor track season, running similar times across the board. May did set a personal best in the mile (it was only a 5:22), but it does give us some insight into how her training is going. She seems to be stronger than she once was and if that is true, then breaking the 2:10 barrier might be more realistic than we think.
Nate: Wes Ferguson and Seth Simonson haven’t gone head-to-head over 800 meters since December and Ferguson took the win that time. However, he secured that win by less than a second. At the end of the day, Simonson is the one with experience.
This is championship racing which tends to get a little more tactical, even in the 800 meters. Sure, Ferguson has the speed for a kick as shown by his performance in the 600 yards, but Simonson actually has a slightly better 600 yard time. Simonson also seems to have more strength-based as evidenced by his marks in the mile.
With similar speed and seemingly more strength, Simonson gets my vote.
Now, admittedly, the Chrissani May and Kelly-Ann Beckford matchup is a bit harder to think about. I was half-tempted to flip a coin because it feels like that would be just as effective.
They have split their head-to-head battles two apiece so far in the 800 meters. However, Beckford has an extra win over May in the mile this year. In a championship race, one needs the strength to actually put their speed to use when it counts in the homestretch. Beckford appears to have the edge over May in that department, so I have to choose her for this one.
Eric: There is a 25% chance that Riddle will lose as the mile is a kicker’s race. Considering the improvement in fitness from last year to this year, and the fact that he won the MIAA mile last indoor season anyway, I think it’s unlikely that he loses. But, there’s always a chance that it happens, especially in the tactical races during indoors as there’s a lot less time to make last-minute moves to save yourself from an upset.
John: I give this a 1% chance. I don’t know if there is a scenario where Riddle does not race the mile this weekend, but that’s where the 1% comes into play. The only way Riddle does not win this race is if he doesn’t race the mile.
Like the question says, Riddle holds a four-second lead over the next best competitor and that’s quite the leap to take in a championship setting. He has improved his strength which is shown with a four-second personal best in the 3k this season and that has clearly benefitted his racing in the mile. If Riddle races, he'll take home the MIAA title.
Nate: I am a firm believer in anything being possible in championship settings. As far as I’m concerned, as long as somebody is toeing the line, they at least have a chance. However, it’s crucial to not underestimate Ryan Riddle’s stock. He’s already the returning champ and he’s only gotten stronger this year.
All in all, I put the chance of him losing at 10%. If the race becomes uber-tactical, then anyone with a semblance of a kick has a chance, and there are six other guys aside from Riddle under the 4:10 barrier. so they’d stand more than just a chance in that scenario.
If it’s an honest race from the gun, it’s always possible that Riddle slips up, whether it be from an internal issue or due to external forces. That’s the beauty of championship racing after all. Even so, he’s still the undeniable favorite and for good reason.
Eric: Curtis-Collins’ best event is the 3k, but I think she can secure double gold in the mile as well. So far this season, the Malone star has a couple of seconds on Alexa Leppelmeier (Walsh) in the 3k and a couple of seconds on Maryssa Depies (Hillsdale) in the mile.
With that being said, she has made it a point to show everyone in the G-MAC that this is her conference after winning her second straight G-MAC cross country title in the fall. She has continued her success this winter, running personal bests in every event she has toed the line for.
Given her momentum, I’ll take Curtis-Collins in both the 3k and mile this weekend.
John: I think this is a tougher question than it appears. Curtis-Collins has had one heck of an indoor season and has put her name amongst the top runners in D2. That being said, Maryssa Depies has had a fantastic season and Alexa Leppelmeier has continued to take steps forward as well.
Curtis-Collins has opted for the mile and the 3k this weekend, meaning she will have to see both Depies and Leppelmeier in the race. However, Curtis-Collins is the only athlete entered in the mile that has run faster than 5:00 this season.
It’s likely that the Malone star takes home the mile crown, but she will also have to face off against a fresh Maryssa Depies (entered only in the 3k) and a potentially fresh Alexa Leppelmeier (she’s listed as a DMR participant as of right now). If both of those athletes are fresh, I’d have to swing the pendulum in either one of their favors.
That being said, Curtis-Collins does have the benefit of only having to race the mile only once prior to her 3k. If she doesn’t get tested during that mile, we’re going to see one heck of a 3k race to decide a champion.
Nate: Curtis-Collins has won every race she’s run this season. While it’s a small sample size, the performances were very convincing in regards to her ability to win. She won her mile race by six seconds and took home her 5k victory by 45 seconds.
The only close race she has had was her 3k, but she walked away with a victory in that one and posted an elite time of 9:33.
My point is that Curtis-Collins can do more than just run fast, she truly knows how to win. In fact, she has already gotten the better of her main competition in the 3k, Alexa Leppelmeier, earlier this season.
As for the mile, I was at first concerned because she doesn’t hold as big of an advantage over her competition on paper. However, her seed time is from well over a month ago, and these races may end up being more tactical anyways.
The order of events also works in her favor given that she has the mile first and a few hours to rest before the 3k. All things considered, I say she has very good chances of snagging the double crown.