TSR Collaboration
Jan 1711 min
Written by Ian Dickenson, Marissa Kuik, Grace McLaughlin & Gavin Struve
Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin
While the holiday season is a historically quiet period during the track season, school is nearly back in session and the past weekend brought a slew of notable races and results. Our panel of Division Two writers gathered to assess the new developments and what they mean at the dawn of the new year.
Which was the more impressive/encouraging early-season 3k result: Tyler Nord (Western Colorado) winning by 30 seconds en route to a converted NCAA #1 time of 7:54 (3k) last month or Matthew Storer (Colorado Christian) running a converted 7:58 (3k) mark to narrowly defeat D1 competition at the CU’s Potts Invitational last weekend?
Marissa: Tyler Nord’s performance was more encouraging and Matthew Storer’s performance was comparatively more impressive.
We know that Nord is capable of running fast at sea level given that he finished 3rd at last year’s indoor national meet in the 3k. Even though he did receive such a massive conversion, it was still encouraging to see him run so well, especially off of mostly cross country training.
However, from the looks of the many DNF results from his teammates, I am assuming he had pacers. So although a 30-second win is impressive, I don't think it's as impressive as Storer’s win over Division One competition at the CU Potts Invitational in Boulder.
Storer’s ability to stay poised during the whole race and come away with a one-second victory is promising for when we ultimately make our national meet predictions. Being able to race well under serious pressure and against top talent is more impressive in my book.
Grace: I think Melissa nailed it with her first statement. Both performances were fantastic in their own regard, but seeing Storer prevail against talented D1 opponents highlights his recent momentum. As such, I’d put that race slightly above Nord’s high altitude performance.
While we saw Storer’s firepower on the grass this fall, I’m excited to see more of it this season. The fact that both men ran this well relatively early in the season leaves us to wonder what the other top-tier D2 men will be able to do in this event over the next month and a half.
Ian: I have to agree with Marissa and Grace.
Storer’s effort impressed me more than Nord’s did. Running a good time solo (or with pacers) is certainly a fantastic display of fitness, but Storer showing that he can compete with some quality runners and come out on top while still notching a quality time means more in my eyes.
Nord’s converted 7:54 (3k) performance suggests that the Mountaineer star can/will thrive in all-out, hard-from-the-gun settings (which we may see at the national meet), but Storer’s resume of consistent high-level running makes his victory at the CU Potts Invitational is another example of his refined talent.
Gavin: We've largely known what Nord is capable of since his breakout freshman campaign last winter on the track as well as his most recent fall campaign. That's why, comparatively, I believe that Storer produced the more impactful (and impressive) result by running 8:12 (3k) at over 5000 feet of altitude mere days ago.
I think most view Nord as more of a national title candidate on the oval given how dynamic he is. However, Storer deserves our respect and attention after what he just achieved on the track to complement a fall campaign in which he won the Lewis XC Crossover and earned individual bronze at the cross country national meet.
Storer was no slouch on the track heading into 2024, and I'm now eager to see what he can do in the 5k after seemingly taking a leap in fitness.
Only eight men have gone under the NCAA D2 provisional mark of 4:09.8 in the mile, with six of those marks being converted. In what appears to be an increasingly wide-open season in America’s most famed distance, who do you think is the favorite at this point of the season?
Marissa: The race for the mile title is pretty wide-open early-on, but I think the national title favorite in the event is someone has not run a qualifying time yet.
Some of the names who have toed the line for this event are athletes who I don't see contesting the mile at the indoor national meet. That includes men such as William Amponsah and teammate Enrico Oddone. I think both are better suited for the longer distances.
Plus, a majority of the names who went under the provisional mark have done so with altitude conversions. And as of right now, we just don't have enough data and scouting to know how they'll fare in a mile race that is almost always tactical on the national stage.
I think Ryan Riddle is the name to beat this season because he comes in with one of the best mile PRs (3:59) and has a ton of experience on the national stage. There are also a few other dark horses like Dillan Haviland and Jagger Zlotoff, who were very impressive last track season. Furthermore, Zlotoff improved immensely on the grass, so he should see that fitness translate to the track and could surprise some people this winter.
Grace: I definitely agree with Marissa’s picks and reasoning behind them, but I wouldn’t necessarily say that the event is wide-open this season.
Things are still getting into full swing and I have a feeling that the competition in the mile will be ramping up rather quickly. Many of the men who I would consider to be top contenders haven’t raced yet. Along with Haviland and Zlotoff, there’s also Jared Gregoire of MSU-Moorhead, Ryan Riddle of Missouri Southern, Simon Kelati and Tyler Nord of Western Colorado, Hamza Chahid and Jakob Rettschlag of Wingate and Hunter Hutton of Western Oregon...just to name a few.
All of these men have championship experience in the 1500/mile, and many have leveled up over the past few months on the grass. I also wouldn’t count out Hudson Majeski of Colorado Christian, Jordan Foster of Findlay or the Grand Valley State duo of Caleb Futter and Elias Bergman.
That is a ton of talent that could very easily pack this event.
At the moment, my top pick is Chahid due to his current momentum and overall talent level when it comes to the speed and endurance required to excel in this event. His PR of 4:01 and two national titles from the last indoor track season indicate that he will be one of the top men in this event if he opts to run it over the 3k and the 5k and/or DMR.
Ian: With four out of the top-five mile finishers at last year’s indoor national meet mile having graduated, there is space for some new middle distance standouts in the D2 scene, so I do believe that there is some "wide-open" element to this year's mile field.
However, the one athlete out of that top five to return to the NCAA this winter, Dillan Haviland, is someone who has earned my attention.
He did not compete this cross country season, so we can’t be entirely sure where he stands fitness-wise entering this indoor track season (although his recent 5k PR is reassuring). But if Haviland shows strong form leading up to the national meet, his experience, range and tactical IQ could make him hard to beat.
One man who did put together a complete cross country season, and shined in doing so, is Simon Kelati. He fared well in national meets last year, but his runner-up effort at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships is a big step up for him. I would put my confidence in him to win the mile if he chooses to run it.
Gavin: Grace painted a great picture of the most likely candidates to win a national title in the mile, but in doing so, she also made the case for this event being wide-open.
I agree that Wingate star Hamza Chahid is the national title favorite should he contest the event. And truthfully, as of right now, I don't see anyone atop the current D2 national leaderboard being a prime contender (although half-mile stud Angel Luera is worth watching).
Kaylee Beyer (Winona State) and Peyton Weiss (Western Colorado) both ran strong converted mile marks a month apart that have them comfortably at NCAA #1 and NCAA #2 on the national leaderboard. Would you take those two over the field to win NCAA gold in March? Why or why not?
Marissa: No, I would not take those two over the field.
I think it's still too early to make that call. Kaylee Beyer does have a legitimate shot to win the mile national title this winter considering her big jump in fitness this past cross country season.
A (converted) 4:45 mile mark this early in the season is super promising, but I also have a hard time betting against the likes of Eleonora Curtabbi or Klaudia O’Malley or even Anna Fauske or Allison Beasley. The latter two women each had impressive jumps in fitness this past fall as well.
As for Peyton Weiss, she ran her heart out at the cross country national meet en route to an All-American finish. But considering her comparative inexperience and her mile time being a converted mark, I would still need to see her race at sea level before I am confident about her chances of winning a national title.
Grace: These performances were promising, but not necessarily surprising.
Both Beyer and Weiss showed massive improvement on the grass this past fall and I expected them to run around these times in the mile based on their increased fitness level. However, I don’t think these times put them in the national title conversation quite yet...but they definitely show All-American potential.
I will admit that running this fast at this point in the season suggests that they will drop their marks even further in the coming weeks. Natalie Graber, Klaudia O’Malley, Eleonora Curtabbi and Allison Beasley are tough names to beat, but Beyer does have a wide range of experience in the mile and the metric mile and her success on the grass should translate over to the indoor oval.
I think Weiss still needs to gain more experience. Her breakout performance at the NCAA XC Championships was impressive and very promising, but excelling in the mile is a whole different beast to tackle.
In short, I think Beyer has an outside shot at the national title and I would classify Weiss as a fringe All-American contender in the event. But the probability of who wins a national title in the mile still leans towards the field.
Ian: These early marks are impressive and they set the tone for what could be the best seasons of these two athletes’ careers, particularly for Weiss.
However, despite her current NCAA #2 spot on the national leaderboard, Weiss would be greatly exceeding expectations if she won a national title given that she is a relatively unproven rookie.
Beyer, on the other hand, is certainly in the conversation for a national title in the mile given her championship pedigree and her recent nation-leading time as well. However, you would be a little overzealous in picking her as the outright title favorite.
With names like Katie Heck -- who finished as the national meet runner-up over 1500 meters last year and just posted a converted 9:32 (3k) mark -- or the aforementioned Eleonora Curtabbi -- who has won a national championship before -- the competition is too stiff to bet heavily on Beyer this early-on.
Gavin: Given the year-over-year jump that she has made on the grass, from backend All-American to top-10 finisher, I think Kaylee Beyer is right in the thick of the national title conversation in what's been her prime event. That's particularly true after she returned to her elite middle distance form last week.
I agree that Peyton Weiss is hardly in the first group of title contenders, but she warrants a look after what she's achieved in the past couple of months and should be an All-American favorite.
I may be in the minority when I say this, but I'm not sure who I'd take over Beyer (and there are some solid returning candidates) as the favorite in the women's mile. Although, I'd still take the field over her from a probably standpoint.
And even if I'm tempted to say it's more likely than not that a mile national champion emerges from this duo, the event is too open to do so.
William Amponsah (West Texas A&M) ran a converted 4:06 mile this past weekend. Does this middle distance performance make you feel more comfortable about his chances of finding success in a more tactical affair? Why or why not?
Marissa: I was never too concerned about William Amponsah being able to find success if a race turned more tactical, but I do think his converted 4:06 mile mark brings some added comfort to the discussion. Even his unconverted mile time of 4:09 is impressive for someone who seems to get better as the racing distances grow longer.
However, considering how he raced at the cross country national meet -- running with the pack for the first part of the race and then opening up a massive gap -- I could see Amponsah doing the same thing on the track. And in that case, it may not have to come down to a fast finish for him.
Nevertheless, he has now further displayed some decent turnover, so if he did leave it to a kick, he should be able to at least cover some of those moves.
Grace: The way I look at this performance is that talent is talent, no matter the distance. This performance just shows us that Amponsah has more turnover than some other endurance-centric machines, which is a positive development.
That being said, based on the firepower that he displayed on the grass, I’m not terribly surprised by this performance. A fast time doesn’t necessarily mean that he has the tactical ability to be successful at this distance, but I think this race solidified the notion that he can at least be competitive in the mile and can feel more confident about his ability in a variety of race scenarios.
Ian: I really like what Grace said here.
This race was simply more confirmation that Amponsah is an incredible athlete. Running fast at shorter distances does not always convert to an ability to compete tactically. But given that we’ve already seen Amponsah go the whole cross country season unbeaten and win a national title, it would be unlikely for him not to have the chops to win a tactical race.
That being said, indoor track is a totally different setting than cross country, so it would wouldn't be entirely surprising if he wound up getting beat by a more experienced runner at the indoor national meet.
Gavin: While I'm not sure how much it moves his hypothetical championship odds, this outcome should be reassuring for Amponsah as he tries to refine his racing skillset ahead of what will be his first NCAA Indoor Championship appearance.
As Marissa said, Amponsah proved that he can win going away against elite talent. But over a shorter distance (in comparison to the 10k cross country title that he won in November), it's more likely for a competitor to be within striking distance late in a race and for Amponsah to need to rely on some turnover to secure a postseason win.
This race should make him (and us) just a little bit more confident in his potential to do so.
After falling short of All-American honors on the track last year, how important do you think Lauren Kiley’s performances in the mile (recently running 4:51) are for her endeavors this season?
Marissa: I am not sure how important the mile results are for Lauren Kiley because she performs best in the longer distances. She ran 4:51 for the mile around the same time last year, so this 4:51 is more of a "check the boxes" type of race to fine-tune some of the turnover that she will still need heading into the longer races.
Overall, the mile performances have some importance in that sense. But in terms of the big picture and Kiley's chances of becoming an All-American this winter, it will be more important to see how much she improves in the 3k and the 5k than in the mile.
Grace: As Marissa said, I think Kiley shines in the longer distances. But this performance was a solid display of turnover despite coming off of cross country training.
A 4:51 mile mark is roughly where I would expect her to be at this time of the year and her performance really only tells us that she is on track to match her success from last year.
I think the biggest factors that will determine whether or not she earns All-American honors on the track this year is her increase in experience and tactical abilities as opposed to her turnover and talent. Continuing to compete and improve in the mile will make a difference when it comes to excelling in more tactical 3k and 5k races.
Ian: I also would not be inclined to put that much value in Kiley’s mile performance given her track record over the last year. A 4:51 mile time gives her a good starting point, but doesn't show us that she’s made significant progress (although she certainly hasn't regressed).
We know that she’s a capable runner; it’s just a matter of if she can overcome her (mostly youth-based) difficulties from previous championship races on the track.
Gavin: After regressing slightly in the fall of 2023 postseason compared to her freshman campaign on the grass, I think it's reassuring to see Kiley in the same place (on paper) as she was a year ago.
This result may be most important from that standpoint, indicating that she's fit, rather than the way it denotes her turnover. The true proving ground will come in the following weeks when Kiley moves up in distance ahead of the indoor national meet.