The Group Chat: D2 Conference Weekend Preview

Written by John Cusick, Eric Baranoski & Grace McLaughlin

Additional commentary and edits by John Cusick & Garrett Zatlin

NOTE: A separate RMAC XC Championship preview is coming on Friday. For that reason, the RMAC has not been highlighted in this Group Chat preview.

ANOTHER NOTE: Unless noted otherwise, we are assuming that all teams entered in these conference meets are running full varsity lineups.

Eric: I don’t think either team will run into any actual trouble or legitimate scares. However, I will say that the Huskies of Michigan Tech will keep thing interesting with the Lakers on the men’s side.

In the past three GLIAC XC Championships, the Michigan Tech men have finished 3rd (2018), 2nd (2019) and 2nd (2021), proving that they can consistently peak for their conference meet. Led by their two low-sticks in sophomore Drew Kolodge and senior Clayton Sayen, the men from Houghton, Michigan are sneaky-good, so watch out!

For the women, it has to be Saginaw Valley as the runner-up team. Alexa Keiser and Arianna Wegienka are the leaders of that group and they give the Cardinals the bulk of their scoring.

After those two women, however, SVSU have quite the drop-off in terms of their fourth and fifth scorers. With a somewhat interchangeable lineup and only two races under their belts, the SVSU women should be the best challenger to Grand Valley State, but I don’t think they will put up much of a fight. I do, however, see them snagging a runner-up finish.

Grace: Assuming that both Laker teams run their full lineup, I do not see a scenario where either team does not win the conference title. As Eric mentioned, the biggest threat on the men’s side is the Michigan Tech Huskies.

Looking at the results from the 2022 season thus far, the chances of Michigan Tech pulling off the upset are extremely slim.

Yes, it's true, the Huskies placed 4th at the Lewis Crossover and they won the Griak Invitational, led by top-10 finishes from Drew Kolodge and Clayton Sayen. However, even these solid performances do not match up with the display of talent seen by Grand Valley State this season.

As for the women, I don't think there is even a chance of an upset, but there could be an exciting race for 2nd place.

While the Saginaw Valley Cardinals have the best chance of taking home silver, I think the Wayne State Warriors could give them a challenge. Based on their 3rd place finish at the Lucian Rosa Invitational, finishing behind Cedarville and Minnesota State, the Warriors are a highly underrated team in this GLIAC XC Championship field.

John: I have to agree with my colleagues on this question. The idea of upsetting the Lakers would require a huge effort from any given team. I am not sure that any team in the GLIAC has the same firepower or depth that the Lakers do on either side.

Starting with the men, the likelihood of Tanner Chada (TSR #2) winning this race is incredibly high. Meanwhile, teammates Andrew Hylen (TSR #13) and Koby Fraaza are incredibly strong second and third scorers who are both capable of finishing inside the top-five of this race.

Michigan Tech has already been mentioned as the biggest contender on the men’s side. And with the likes of Clayton Sayen (TSR #20) and Drew Kolodge, I'd at least say that the Huskies' chances of winning are certainly greater than zero.

I also think that the men of Wayne State (MI) are another team to keep an eye on. Ransom Allen (TSR #19) has proven that 2021 was not a fluke season and that he’s a legitimate low-stick in a conference filled with strong runners.

His teammate, Tyler Buchanan, has run incredibly well over the course of the season and his improvement will help this team in a championship setting. Outside of those two men, it’s unlikely that Wayne State (MI) will win this team title.

On the women’s side, I agree with Grace that the odds of the women getting upset are incredibly slim and maybe almost zero.

Natalie Graber (TSR #4) has made one of the biggest fitness leaps in the country over the course of this season and appears to be leading the Lakers to yet another conference title. When you pair her with Klaudia O’Malley (TSR #8), it’s hard to find a better one-two punch in the country, let alone the GLIAC.

Saginaw Valley State has done a nice job of competing during the regular season as Alexa Keiser and Arianna Wegienka have been strong low-sticks for the Cardinals. However, they pale in comparison to what we have seen from Graber and O’Malley.

The name who could potentially make the biggest difference is likely Lynsey Amthor. If she races up to her potential level, then chances increase that an upset could happen, but even then, I'm really stretching for something that's just not there.

Eric: The Stanislaus State Warriors from Turlock, California are my pick.

They are just too dominant in my opinion. I say this because they have elite low-sticks who will greatly help the Warriors in the final team scores, especially in a more compact field where depth can only take Chico State so far.

Kaela Dishion has taken a huge step up compared to last year and is looking to win back-to-back CCAA individual crowns. Meanwhile, Najwa Chouati has come from Lindenwood University and has made an immediate impact as a valuable secondary scorer for Stanislaus State.

And let's not forget that Kayden Legan has made tremendous improvements from last year, emerging as a key scorer this fall.

If Kaela Dishion wins, then so will the Warriors. Yes, a lot is riding on what actually happens behind her, but that’s how confident I am in this Stanislaus State team.

Grace: I think this could be one of the best battles in the country this weekend. Stanislaus State has an extremely talented scoring trio, but also some uncertainty at the backend of their lineup. Meanwhile, Chico State has a much more balanced squad.

The biggest question is whether or not Stanislaus State’s raw talent can withstand Chico State’s depth. The Wildcats beat the Warriors at the Santa Clara Bronco Invitational, but the Stanislaus State women were without their fourth scorer in that race.

Not only that, but Chico State had a solid performance at D2 Pre-Nationals, recording a 4th place finish. It wasn't a perfect race, but that result becomes slightly more impressive when you realize that two of their runners either didn't run or recorded a DNF result (the live results and actual results show different things).

Both teams have their strengths and their apparent weaknesses, but for head-to-head competition in a smaller field, I think I have to pick Stan State. The trio of Kaela Dishion, Najwa Chouati and Kayden Legan is lethal and all of those women should finish in the top-five.

As long as Yaharia Zuniga and Haleigh Humble have decent races, Stan State should be able to take home the title...but the Wildcats will certainly give them a legitimate challenge.

John: This will be one of the races of the weekend. This CCAA matchup has quietly turned into one of the best head-to-head battles in the country and we’re going to see some fireworks in Monterey Bay.

Unlike my fellow writers, I will actually take the Chico State Wildcats to return to the top in 2022. And truthfully, my reasoning is largely due to some of the factors that both Grace and Eric have already discussed.

As Grace mentioned, the Molina sisters did not finish/start at D2 Pre-Nationals whereas the Chico State women finished 4th. If they had finished that race, then the Wildcats likely place 3rd as a team instead of 4th, making them a team that is on par with Western Colorado.

In fact, we have already seen Chico State beat Stanislaus State in a head-to-head matchup this fall! Yes, the Warriors didn’t have their fourth scorer at the Bronco Invitational, but I am not sure that one runner is enough to change my mind about the Wildcats in this matchup.

The Warriors boast the stronger low-sticks with Kaela Dishion, Najwa Choutai and Kayden Legan. There’s a good chance that all three of those women finish inside the top-seven or higher, making them a tough team to beat.

If Haleigh Humble returns to this lineup, and it sounds like she might, then this will admittedly be a much tougher ask for the Wildcats as they face the Warriors this weekend. Still, I think there is a lot more riding in Chico State's favor than some people realize.

Eric: I think I'll still take Missouri Southern due to the veteran presence of Gidieon Kimutai, Ryan Riddle and JP Rutledge...and the fact that they're running at home. Although we haven’t seen many scoring options for the Lions at the fourth and fifth slots of their lineup, I still think they will step up.

It's been nearly a month since the Lopers' breakout meet of the season at the Platte River Rumble. If you don’t remember, they took the team victory over a short-handed Augustana squad.

Even so, their relative youth (Myles Bach, Brett Schoenhoffer and Payton Davis) has not convinced me that they have what it takes to get Kearney over the top this year, specifically against a juggernaut like Missouri Southern.

If they had posted a better result at the Chile Pepper XC Festival, then I might have been convinced that they'll pull off the upset, but that’s not the case, so I’m sticking with the Lions.

Grace: As much as I want to root for the consistency and momentum of the Lopers, the raw talent of Missouri Southern gives them an edge. I would still consider them the heavy favorites for the MIAA title.

Could there still be an upset? Absolutely!

If Missouri Southern sits one of their top runners or one guy has a really poor race, and Nebraska-Kearney has a great day, then the Lopers could take home the conference title.

While unlikely, I don't think it is unrealistic to say that there is a scenario in which the MIAA XC Championships end in an upset.

John: I believe this race is one of the more cut-and-dry scenarios of the weekend.

Missouri Southern is currently listed at TSR #9 in our rankings, largely due to their three-headed monster up front. Gidieon Kimutai (TSR #5) hasn’t missed a beat despite taking the 2021 season off. Meanwhile, Ryan Riddle (TSR #9) has been just as good as advertised throughout the 2022 cross country season thus far.

It all comes down to JP Rutledge (TSR #15) and how he performs. He’s been a little inconsistent this season and you could argue that he has come back down to Earth a bit after his extremely successful 2021 campaign.

You can argue that these men are the best three runners in the conference when it comes to racing on the grass. However, the Lions have not always run like that this year. If one of them were to falter, then it could open the door for more than just Nebraska-Kearney to steal a team title.

Myles Bach, Ben Arens and Luke Stuckey of UNK have been a strong trio this season, but despite their recent results, I’m not sure their talent level matches that of the Lions.

Pittsburg State’s Diego Contreras and Matthew Oglesby have also been strong this season and have helped make the MIAA conference more competitive. However, their performances as low-sticks for the Gorillas are probably not going to be enough to carry this team to a conference title without some kind of blowup from the Lions.

I don’t think that anyone can beat this Missouri Southern team this weekend except for Missouri Southern themselves. They should be able to run away with this team title solely due to their top-three runners.

Eric: As much as I want to think that this will be a close team race, history tells me otherwise.

Years ago, we had a good rivalry between U-Mary and Augustana. However, no team listed in this year's field has the same type of firepower as the Vikings do this year. As a result, I’ll default to Coach Tracy Hellman and the Augustana women to take home the team title.

Megan Means, Nicolette Schmidt and PJ English are veterans who know what it feels like to win and they likely don’t want to go out without a conference title. I’d be shocked if they let this opportunity slip away.

Grace: I think Eric summed it up nicely. The Augustana women are on another level compared to the rest of the field, even if they haven't been perfect this season.

U-Mary is their usual rival, but with the Marauders having an "off" season this fall, the other top competitors of Minnesota-Duluth, Winona State and Minnesota State don’t seem to have the same firepower or the history of excellence that the Vikings do.

I think Augustana will have another dominant performance, but if I had to pick a runner-up team, then it would be Minnesota-Duluth. They won the Griak Invitational over Winona State, as well as Minnesota State, and were the runner-up team at the Lewis Crossover ahead of Winona State.

Like the GLIAC XC Championships, the real race will be 2nd place.

John: I badly want to pick the Winona State Warriors to pull off an upset this weekend, but I don’t think I can bring myself to do that.

Lindsay Cunningham (TSR #2) has been stupendous all season long and is the individual conference title favorite heading into this weekend. However, they don’t give points for the margin of victory. Instead, she’ll likely walk away with just a single point to add to the team score.

Teammates McKenna Taylor and Kaylee Beyer have been really strong second and third scorers this season. They have helped Winona State finish 2nd (Griak Invitational) and 3rd (Lewis Crossover), making them a sleeper pick for this weekend.

The same can be said about Minnesota-Duluth. Bolstered by the transfer of Cailee Peterson, the Bulldogs now have a top-three that is more on par with the rest of the NSIC. Is it enough for us to believe that they can pull off the upset? I’m not sure about that, but finishing 2nd as a team this weekend would be impressive.

As for Augustana, there are some concerns heading into the NSIC XC Championships. This team hasn’t looked quite as potent as they did in 2021. It's hard to say whether or not that is because they overachieved last year or because they're waiting for the right time to peak.

Megan Means has not looked the same so far this year. And despite Nicolette Schmidt and PJ English helping to steady this team, the Vikings' low-sticks don't appear to be quite as potent as they were in 2021.

Of course, none of that may be an issue at the NSIC XC Championships where the field is much smaller. The combined depth and firepower of the Vikings should outlast their competition in Winona State and Minnesota-Duluth. However, a poor showing could result in an upset, leaving us reevaluating how we feel about the Vikings moving forward.

Eric: Let’s be honest, this is not the same Alabama-Huntsville team as last year.

And based on what I have seen this year, the Chargers have slipped a bit during the 2022 cross country. As for the Choctaws, they are bolstered by Queens (NC) transfer Jan Lukas Becker, but they really need a perfect race from their fifth runner to make it close.

Lee (Tenn.) is the clear favorite. Plus, I don’t think that the Flames forgot about last year. They will come in with something to prove. Silas Eckenroad, Will Stone, Aaron Himes and Ezekiel Harless were all part of the team that lost last year's conference title. But going into this weekend, they have the opportunity to righten the ship by bringing home gold.

Grace: The Lee Flames will reclaim the GSC title this year. They went in as the favorites last year and I think they got a little too comfortable for a team with a target on their back. In the end, it cost them the race.

The Flames and Coach Morgan learned from last year’s effort and are going into the GSC XC Championships on a mission to win. Plus, this UAH squad is not the same team as they were last year. And while Mississippi College has had a solid year thus far, Lee has the advantage over both of those teams in my opinion.

John: This is yet another race that I’m interested in this weekend!

I agree with Eric that the Alabama-Huntsville men are not quite as strong as they were last year. Sam Wilhelm has stepped into a low-stick role and has helped increase this team's scoring potency, but the Chargers still lack the high-end depth that other teams have across the country.

As for Mississippi College, they’re the team that will be looking to play spoiler. As Eric mentioned, Jan Lukas Becker has immediately improved this team’s stock as a whole with his ability to score in the single digits. He has a very good chance of winning the individual title this weekend and if he does, then that will certainly help the Choctaws' chances of taking home a conference title.

Hunter Kurz and Gabe Poulin have also been great middle-lineup contributors and that won’t change this weekend. If those two, plus Becker, can piece together top-10 finishes, then things will begin to get dicey for the Lee Flames.

As for the favorites, Lee will likely prove that they are the best team in this conference. They have already won some head-to-head battles against Alabama-Huntsville this season, but we haven’t seen them take on Mississippi College yet.

The Flames have finished 2nd behind Grand Valley State (Lewis Crossover) and 2nd behind Wingate (UAH Festival Year Showcase), leading us to believe that they are a legitimate top team in the country this fall.

There has been a revolving door of men who have led the Flames this fall, but that’s arguably what makes them so dangerous. Silas Eckenroad, Adan Rodriguez and Will Stone are the three guys who you’d expect to lead this team on Saturday, but don’t be surprised if Hayden Judge has another strong performance after leading this team at the UAH Showcase.

The level of team racing that the Flames have display this fall makes them the favorites this weekend for the GSC title. While they may have gotten comfortable last season, I don’t think that will be the case again in 2022, so I’ll tab them as the team to beat in the Gulf South.

Eric: Give me the entirety of the GNAC. There are some interesting storylines on both the men's and women's sides.

Starting with the women, how will Naomi Bailey, Kendall Kramer and Rosie Fordham fare after their performance at D2 Pre-Nationals where they went 1-6-17? At last year's GNAC XC Championships, they went 2-3-4 with the order slightly altered as Fordham led the way, followed by Kramer and Bailey.

What about Simon Fraser? Are they destined to repeat? At D2 Pre-Nationals, the Western Washington women bested the Canadian squad by a mere four points. In a smaller field, how will that change the scoring dynamic?

With it too close to call, I’ll take the ladies from Simon Fraser.

With the men, is it going to be a simple two-man race between Cole Nash of Alaska Anchorage and Charlie Dannatt of Simon Fraser? Or could we see another individual contender emerge? How about Kevin McDermott from Western Washington, a guy who was the next-best GNAC finisher at D2 Pre-Nationals?

Speaking of Western Washington, they were the fourth-best men's team at D2 Pre-Nationals with Simon Fraser about 50 points back. Have two weeks been enough time for Simon Fraser to close the gap?

Grace: I think the Lone Star Conference XC Championships individual race will give us some great insight as to where some of the best women in the country are in terms of their fitness. This race will feature Florance Uwajeneza (TSR #9) and Elenora Curtabbi (TSR #10), both of West Texas A&M, as well as Madison Brown (TSR #24) of Dallas Baptist.

Both these teams usually stay out of the spotlight during the regular season, so it's hard to gauge where they are against the best runners in the country. Luckily, putting these three women head-to-head-to-head should be an exciting race and the results should tell us exactly how good these athletes are as we head into the postseason.

For the men, I think the CCAA XC Championships will be interesting. The race is highlighted by the Chico State trio of Rory Abberton, Jack Emanuel and Omar Alverez-Hernandez while Cal Poly Pomona are headlined by Ricardo Vargas and Leandro Candray.

The fight for the individual title will be close between Abberton, Emanuel and Vargas based on their close finishes at D2 Pre-Nationals. Not only that, but Brayden McLaughlin of Chico State is the reigning champ and could defend his title, although he was "only" 22nd at D2 Pre-Nationals.

John: On the women’s side of things, I agree with Grace that the Lone Star individual race will be one of the best races of the weekend.

The race between Florance Uwajaneza, Elenora Curtabbi and Madison Brown will be electric. We know how good Uwajaneza is, but questions still linger about just how the ceiling is for b both Curtabbi and Brown.

Curtabbi has been strong this season, but has never beaten her teammate in a race setting. Meanwhile, Brown has upped her resume in 2022 with strong showings at the Roadrunners Invitational and the Chile Pepper XC Festival.

If either athlete wants to explode onto the national scene, then this is the weekend for them to do so with a strong performance.

As for the men, I’m interested as to what happens at the GLIAC XC Championships. I mentioned that Tanner Chada was the favorite to win that individual title, but there are certain names who could challenge him on the right day.

The first is his teammate, Andrew Hylen, who has been incredibly consistent throughout his Lakers career. While an upset from him is more of a long-shot than anything else, it speaks to the level that Hylen races at each time out.

Then there is Wayne State’s Ransom Allen who has proven to be one of the better runners in the nation this fall. Allen would be one of my top picks if I had to bet on someone to make things interesting with Chada.

And lastly, there’s Dayton Brown (TSR #10). We haven’t mentioned him in this article yet, but Brown showcased his fitness at the Lewis Crossover as he ran away from a very good field. I think he has the best chance of upsetting Chada given what we have seen from this him season.

Grace: I'm looking forward to the women’s race at the GNAC XC Championships. Western Washington, Simon Fraser and Alaska-Fairbanks finished 8th, 9th and 10th, respectively, at D2 Pre-Nationals. That doesn't leave me knowing with 100% certainty as to who will win this race.

On the individual side of things, I want to see Naomi Bailey race again after her upset victory over Katie Doucette at D2 Pre-Nationals.

The race will also feature Kendall Kramer and Rose Fordham, both of Alaska-Fairbanks, as well as Aluana Carstens of Saint Martins, Caitlin Heldt of Western Oregon and Grace Chalk of Simon Fraser. The race should be close and exciting for both the team and individual titles.

Eric: Let's go out east to the the PSAC XC Championships hosted by Mansfield.

Edinboro looks like the clear conference title favorite on the men's side, but could another team like Shippensburg or Lock Haven upset the Fighting Scots?

Ward Ries is arguably the individual title favorite after finishing as the runner-up during last year's race. Not only that, but Edinboro has been very good throughout this fall season.

With the rest of their squad falling into place -- as evidenced by their 2nd finish and 40-second time-spread at the Warrior Invite just two weeks prior -- will this conference meet even be close for the title? Or are the Fighting Scots going to run away with it?

John: Here’s a fun one: the East Central Tigers and the Great American Conference.

Ever since the Tigers nearly upset the Missouri Southern Lions at the DBU Old Glory Gallup, I’ve wondered how they would perform in the postseason. There is so much unknown about this team and their success against one of our top-ranked teams only makes me more curious about how they will look this weekend.

That performance came on the heels of a top-10 team finish at the Chile Pepper XC Festival where they put two athletes inside the top-20.

The Great American Conference XC Championship isn't exactly the most competitive conference meet. However, a dominant team victory would make me feel more comfortable about how the Tigers may fare when they toe the line at the Central Regional XC Championships in a couple of weeks.

A strong performance both this weekend, and two weeks from now, could ultimately give this team a surprise at-large bid to the national meet.