TSR Collaboration
May 11, 202111 min
The D2 season has been a thrilling one so far. With the NCAA Championships fast approaching, and our understanding of the collegiate landscape now growing stronger, we thought now would be a good time to review the division as a whole and answer some prompts...
John: I’ll be the first to say that Julian's and Scomparin’s result from this past weekend do make me feel better about how the Orediggers will compete at the NCAA Championships. Scomparin ran faster than that on the indoor track at the indoor national meet which was good enough for 3rd place. It’s nice to see him race well at sea-level once again.
As for Julian, this is a very good indication of what type of fitness he is in. I think he’s moved back into the conversation of title contender in the 1500 as his newfound strength has resulted in an 18-second personal best.
Kyle Moran posted a mark of 14:09 for 5000 meters and that’s nowhere near what his altitude mark says he can run. He’s proven that he can run faster than that, so this might be chalked up as a poor race with hopes that he bounces back in time for the NCAA meet. However, outside of those three, no one else really ran that well in California, so I’m leaving with mixed feelings about their future races.
Eric: I agree with John. These performances by Julian and Scomparin validate those altitude conversions and give them merit. However, even with the altitude conversions saying that you are in a certain fitness, it doesn’t necessarily mean that you race that way.
Either way, the RMAC is still the best conference top-to-bottom in all of Division 2 and you can count on their runners to show up in a big way at the NCAA Championships. I just wish that it was an easier topic to discuss as the RMAC schools don’t necessarily ever have to race at sea-level, so most of the time they will always have inflated numbers going into the national meets.
Anyway, the best runners show up in the biggest moments regardless of geography and there's a reason why the best runners are in the RMAC.
Garrett: Their performances certainly validate the prior conversions, but I feel like we’re at a point where we should already know just how talented the Colorado Mines men truly are. Sure, maybe not everyone on that team is able to translate their regular season success to the national stage every time they toe the line, but plenty of non-altitude schools could receive the same criticism.
The Orediggers are a major powerhouse at the D2 level and have been for quite some time. Their history of success and recent results were already enough for me to not really be all that surprised by their non-altitude marks.
John: The first thought I have here is that Eilish Flanagan is the best steeplechaser in D2 history. That seems like a “Captain Obvious” statement, but I don’t think people understand how good her 9:40 in the steeplechase is. First, she ran away from the field at the Oregon Twilight meet, winning by 35 seconds. Second, that steeple time is seven seconds better than former record holder and current On Running athlete, Alicja Konieczek.
Meanwhile, Roisin Flanagan ran 15:47 for 5000 meters, which is good enough for NCAA #7 on the All-Time record list for outdoor competitions. If we back-tracked to December, when these two ran 15:38 and 15:40 outside of collegiate competition, then we’d be talking about the NCAA #2 and NCAA #4 All-Time marks in D2 outdoor history.
I think we are witnessing two of the very best all-around runners in the history of D2 and they’re somehow going under the radar while doing it. I think we’ll be in for some fireworks at the NCAA meet and it’ll be because the Flanagan sisters might walk away with three NCAA titles and two runner-up spots as well.
Eric: Not very often will you have two star athletes on the same team. Even less often are those two athletes related.
Enter the Flanagan sisters who have really taken advantage of running in the thin air in Alamosa. When records fall and championships are won, then you really start talking about where these two women rank amongst the all-time greats. Well, Eilish now has the steeplechase national record and both women have a golden opportunity to win their first individual national titles.
John is absolutely right, what we are witnessing is rare and I don’t think people fully appreciate it. Sometimes you can’t fully appreciate what you have until it’s gone and sadly, I think that’s the way it’s about to be in the world of Division 2 when the Flanagan sisters leave.
Garrett: Before our audio was corrupted, I basically echoed the same sentiments that Eric just said on our latest podcast attempt. I truly don’t think people realize just how good these two have been. They’ve been flat-out incredible and what Eilish just ran in the steeplechase should really be a major starting point for how great she has been in so many other distance events. The fact that her sister Roisin can run 15:47 for 5000 meters and be overshadowed by her sister is unbelievable.
We’re witnessing greatness and the D2 level has been so much better because these two women are in the NCAA. Like Eric said, I don’t think people fully appreciate what the Flanagan sisters have brought to the table. Not just this year, but over the past few years.
That said, in order to undoubtably be considered as two of the best to ever do it, winning an individual national title this spring will be a must. If teammate Stephanie Cotter wasn't around, that may not have been an issue at this point in their careers, but the current lack of individual gold is an interesting caveat to consider when talking about all-time D2 greats.
Eric: Mutai is built for this event. Just look at the 2019 NCAA cross country race and you’ll see why. If he’s smart, he should be able to dictate this race and run it the way that he wants to. I could see him taking this race from the gun like Iowa State’s Wesley Kiptoo did at the 2020 NCAA XC Championships. I’d say he’s easily the favorite.
John: It’s hard to argue with Eric here. I was slightly worried about Mutai when he ran 14:29 (5k) in mid-April. He followed suit with a 3:45 mark in the 1500 meters. However, running 28:44 in a 10k, setting a new personal best by 58 seconds (prior PR of 29:42) and winning a race by more than two minutes tells us plenty of things.
One of those things is that Mutai has to be the favorite out of the 15 men who have auto qualifying marks this season. If he can run that fast by himself in a championship setting, there’s no telling what he can do when he gets to a race with some competition.
Garrett: I love the comparison to Wesley Kiptoo. I would agree that Mutai's aggressive front-running and raw fitness makes him an ideal fit for a 10k field that may end up forming a strength-based race at the NCAA Championships.
However, I’m not sure he’s at that same level of dominance where he can just run away from his competition. I absolutely believe that he can be a title contender, but this was one heck of a performance that took me by surprise. Can he do it again? He’ll have to fend off Marcelo Laguera and the Colorado Mines Orediggers which is no easy task, even if he chooses to make the pace aggressive.
Eric: I think this is great news for CSU-Pueblo’s Yasmine Hernandez in the 800 meters. Townsend just recently ran a 2:04 at the Oregon Twilight and has been looking dangerous, so with her out of the field, it opens the door for Hernandez to win her first NCAA title.
Yes, there is RMAC rival Bailey Sharon standing in her way, but I really liked how Hernandez ran the 800 at the indoor national meet. She showed a lot of composure and maturity even in her runner-up finish as Cleyet-Merle was just better that day.
John: Again, it feels like Eric hit this right on the head. While I think it benefits Hernandez the most immediately, I think the race is relatively wide-open at this point. The 800 is arguably the weakest field out of all the distance events this season (men and women) as only 26 women have achieved the provisional standard.
A name that I’ll throw out that should benefit from Townsend's absence is Natalia Novak of Academy of Art. She has run 2:09 this season and with Townsend out of the picture, she now has the real possibility of being able to double in the 800/1500 and have a shot at a national title.
Her 4:18 for 1500 is faster than any of the girls currently ahead of her in the 800, meaning she’s got a solid shot at running a tactical race and holding on at the end. Of course, Novak would have to opt for both races, and that might not be part of her plans this season.
Garrett: Hernandez is the clear favorite based on what we saw during the indoor track season. She’s an experienced veteran who has sustained her success from the winter months. Between her consistency, experience, wins, times and progression, she has simply been at an elite D2 level. Novak is great and Chapko is a young talent, but nobody has been quite as proven as Hernandez...with the possible exception of Bailey Sharon.
Eric: I really think Noble has been focusing on the steeplechase and doing what he needs to do in order to be on the line at the Olympic Trials. The indoor oval is where he made a name for himself, winning two national titles, but he’s been content at three races this season, which is the same amount of races that he had during the indoor season. He’ll show up at the national meet when it matters the most, I can assure you that much.
John: The quiet season from Noble is likely in preparation for the Olympic Trials when they roll around in June. They’ll be a month after the D2 NCAA Championships and there is no reason for Noble to race all that much this season. That being said, it is odd that we haven’t seen the same kind of racing schedule from him during outdoors. He broke multiple records and made himself the clear favorite in multiple events (even the ones he didn’t declare for). That’s not really the case here.
I wouldn’t say that he’s a lock for the steeplechase NCAA crown given how well Taylor Stack and Reece Smith have looked in recent weeks. And his 5k mark, while it was the first one under 14:00, is almost an afterthought at 13:55 now.
I’m hoping that we see him jump in a race and try to go after Tabor Steven’s steeple record (8:26) or even Michael Aish’s 5k record (13:22), but as we get closer to the NCAA Championships, the odds of that happening become rather slim.
Garrett: I think it’s a little bit of both. I do think the rest of the NCAA has caught up to him a bit. In fact, if you look at the NCAA Indoor Championships, it’s not like he won in dominating fashion. Others have run incredibly fast times this spring and his 13:37 (5k) isn’t a mark that is so wildly out of reach anymore.
At the same time, it’s clear that the steeplechase is his his main event and his goal for making it to the Olympic Trials has to be a top priority. That fact has likely forced him to readjust his training and meet schedule, so it may be slightly unfair to say that others have caught up to him when he simply hasn’t been pursuing certain events as seriously as he could be.
Eric: Starting off with a woman from Norway, Ida Narbuvoll returned this spring after not racing since the 2020 Northern Sun Indoor Championships.
After her initial race back, a 10k in which she set a new personal best, we were unsure if she was really that fit or if that race was just a fluke. In her two subsequent races, those performances, which were both wins, proved to us that she’s gone from someone who could be seen as an All-American to someone who was going to be in the mix to win a national title. Talk about progress...
Hailing from the Emerald Isle, Saint Leo’s Shane Bracken has reinserted himself into the national title conversation in the 1500 meters. In case you forgot, he does have previous experience at the national level, snagging the eighth and final All-American spot at the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships in the 1500 meters, but his success since that race has been minimal.
That’s why his progression in the 1500 from a 3:51 to a 3:41 has been so wildly impressive this spring. With the 1500 usually being a very tactical race at the national level and often coming down to a sprint finish, don’t count out the St. Leo senior as he’s also run 1:50 for 800 meters earlier this year.
John: I think on the men’s side, Reece Smith is the man who has improved his stock the most this season. It’s largely because we had no idea how good Smith would be at the 3000 meter steeplechase. The fact that he dropped 19-seconds from his first steeple (9:10) to his second steeple (8:51) was impressive. The idea that he dropped three more seconds (8:48) in a largely solo effort is what really caught my attention.
When you add on the fact that he ran a PR in the 5k (14:14) and 1500 (3:47) this season, he also gives us reason to believe that he’s trending in the right direction. Smith has never competed individually at an NCAA Championships, but he’ll do just that later this month with a very strong chance to take home the national title. Of course, Noble will be in his way...
On the women’s side of things, I think PJ English is the woman who’s impressed me the most this season. The Augustana athlete started the season with a new personal best in the 1500, running 4:31, only to better that mark this past weekend when she ran 4:27 at the Maverick Classic.
At the Drake Relays, she ran 16:37 for 5000 meters, an overall personal best by 57 seconds. The following weekend, she dropped another 17 seconds off of that mark and ran 16:20 at the GVSU Extra Weekend Meet. Those times are both currently top-20 marks and she has a chance to double at the NCAA meet with a strong probability of succeeding in both of them.
Garrett: I’m going with Josh Pierantoni. Yes, his teammate Ryan Searle has the faster 10k time this spring, but Pierantoni was strong during cross country and carried that success to the indoor oval where he emerged as a true contender. To see him maintain that consistency and earn a top-10 nationally in the 10,000 meters of 29:04 (NCAA #9, converted) is really encouraging. He continues to rise up the national ranks and it looks like he has finally found an event that really favors his true talent.
On the women’s side, it has to be Fatima Alanis for me. She’s relatively inexperienced when it comes to competing at the highest levels of D2, but this Queens runner has been flat-out incredible this spring. She recently ran 16:20 (5k) at the Portland Twilight meet which complements her 35:17 (10k) effort from earlier in the season. Alanis has yet to have a bad race this year and is only getting better. She may be the last person anyone wants to see at the NCAA Championships when thinking about momentum.