The Group Chat: 2023 Free Agency (Part Two)

Questions & edits via Garrett Zatlin

Answers via Maura Beattie, Finn Birnie, Scotty Loughlin & Gavin Struve

The offseason is here which means that transfers are plentiful around the NCAA nowadays. This, in turn, has left our group of writers here at The Stride Report with PLENTY to talk about. Below, we posed a handful of questions about some of the biggest college moves of the last few months to see what our writers thoughts were.

Here was what they said...

Maura: As currently constructed, the Razorback men will be a top-20 team this fall.

Arkansas will greatly benefit from adding Kirami Yego, an All-American standout on the grass, but there are still some questions to be answered about the rest of this lineup.

Can Patrick Kiprop translate his recent track success to the grass and be more consistent than he was in 2022? Will veterans Elias Schreml and Myles Richter be able to use their extensive experience to establish greater middle-lineup stability? Do the Shearer brothers, Ben and Josh, have it in them to race together and keep scoring gaps to a minimum?

If all of those things happen, and if Yego is right alongside Kiprop throughout the season, then emerging as a top-20 team is plenty realistic for Arkansas. And at that point, the Razorbacks may be flirting just outside of the top-15.

Finn: The addition of Kirami Yego definitely bolsters the Razorbacks' hopes of a top-20 national meet finish come November (and a top-20 ranking throughout the season).

Yego and Patrick Kiprop will certainly be a devastating duo. Both are All-Americans on the grass and both men just had cracking track seasons (Kiprop in particular). In fact, they may end up being one of the more lethal 1-2 punches in the NCAA this fall.

The rest of their roster has a great mix of experience via Elias Schreml, Josh Shearer and Myles Richter as well as some talented, high-upside younger guys in Reuben Reina and Ben Shearer.

The pieces are certainly there for the Razorbacks to be a top-20 team and maybe even slightly beyond that. Yego could be the guy who allows the Arkansas men to become a more complete cross country squad this fall.

Gavin: This won’t be a vintage Razorbacks squad, but the addition of Kirami Yego puts Arkansas squarely in the mix to compete for an SEC title and improve upon last year’s 23rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

Yego grants Arkansas another ace to pair with Patrick Kiprop, and they have good-enough depth and experience behind them, as evidenced by the names who Maura and Finn offered. That, in turn, should allow this group to comfortably reach the national meet and sniff a top-15 finish if all goes according to plan.

Scotty: I agree with my colleagues. I feel like the top-15 to top-20 range feels about right for this squad. Kiprop and Yego will make a dominant 1-2 punch, but the rest of this lineup will need to improve if they wish to get into that top-15 range.

Some of these men certainly will improve, but by how much is the real question.

Fortunately, with Kiprop and Yego both having multiple seasons of cross country eligibility remaining, they won’t have to go all-in for the fall of 2023 and will be able to aim for longer-term success.

Maura: This is a hard one.

Alabama transfer Oussama El Bouchayby is insanely talented. That much is clear. But even though his 1:45 (800 meter) PR is head-turning, there are still guys who could catch the new Crimson Tide member by surprise.

Duke will be bringing in multiple-time D3 national champion, Ryan Wilson, who boasts a 1:46 PR in the half-mile event. Texas is anticipating the return of reigning NCAA indoor 800 meter national champion, Yusuf Bizimana, who has a 1:45 PR. Penn State has a rising sophomore and 1:45 talent, Handal Roban, coming back, too.

As you can see, there are multiple men who are, for the most part, just as fast and just as notable as El Bouchayby is who are already (or will be) competing in the D1 realm.

The 800 meters is by far one of the toughest events, in my opinion, because you need the strength and speed to propel you over two hard laps. And if analyzing collegiate distance running has taught me anything, it's that you can’t count out anyone in this race -- meaning that I'm not sure if I have El Bouchayby as the national title favorite at this exact moment.

Gavin: El Bouchayby enters 2023-24 as more of a national title contender than a national title favorite. Assuming Will Sumner turns pro, the NCAA will be void of a clear-cut half-mile favorite for gold, much like it was before his dominant NCAA title performance back in June.

The former Angelo State runner resides in a tier with Bizimana, who has won a national title already, and Roban, who has secured two NCAA Championship bronze medals as a freshman. I would pick Bizimana as the D1 national title favorite if I was forced to choose one.

However, El Bouchayby has as much firepower as anyone, and it would hardly be a surprise to see him carry over his success to the next level with another NCAA gold, this time in Division One.

Scotty: El Bouchayby would be a strong national title contender, but not the odds-on favorite (in my opinion) even if Sumner were to go pro. Maura and Gavin highlighted the two athletes who I’d rank above him over 800 meters -- Yusuf Bizimana and Handal Roban.

Although the former was by way of Navasky Anderson’s DQ, Bizimana’s last two national meets have resulted in a gold medal and a silver medal, respectively. The guy simply has the wheels and the tactical expertise to navigate chaos and get the job done.

And while El Bouchayby has certainly proven himself on numerous high-level stages, his resume isn't quite as extensive as Bizimana's is (which isn't necessarily his fault, either).

Roban is more of a raw talent given his youth, but the Nittany Lion star has been able to find an other-worldly gear at both NCAA Championships that he has competed in thus far. And given the choice between him and El Bouchayby, I like what I’ve seen from Roban more when evaluating their full body of work.

Finn: I think the rest of the team has hit the nail on the head with this one. El Bouchayby enters 2023-24 as one of the main protagonists, but the 800 meters is so deep (and generally top-heavy) that I don’t think there are any clear-cut national title favorites in the event.

As mentioned above, Handal Roban and Yusuf Bizimana have been fantastic this past year. Roban seems to get better with every race and Bizimana has displayed some of the best tactical understanding in the NCAA to pair with his outstanding firepower.

We also cannot forget about Aidan McCarthy who took the NCAA by storm and is now becoming a consistent 1:46 and 1:47 runner. The Mustang star has flourished under Coach Ryan Vanhoy and I still feel like the best is yet to come for him.

That being said, El Bouchayby is a phenomenal talent and I have no doubt that he can compete with the very best that Division One has to offer. I wouldn't be surprised if he won a national title in the winter and/or spring of 2024.

Maura: It’s gotta be Ryan Wilson to Duke.

Seeing Aaron Las Heras venture from Wake Forest to Northern Arizona is obviously a big deal, but the Lumberjacks have proven themselves on numerous occasions to be the team to beat on the grass. Las Heras just adds to their All-American depth.

But when it comes to the Blue Devils and Wilson…man, they are building something there.

Duke has signed on some stellar incoming freshmen as well as landed an experienced transfer group. Wilson, who is coming over from MIT, brings with him speed on the track and strength on the cross country course...even if he doesn't have any eligibility in the latter area.

The 1:46 (800) runner and 3:55 miler is a perfect fit for an ACC program that has been trying to establish a greater middle distance presence in their loaded conference. Wilson’s national-level experience and accolades speak for themselves. He will help a Duke team across both track seasons as far as point scoring is concerned.

Gavin: I agree that Ryan Wilson to Duke has the edge as the more significant move.

At first glance, I’d be inclined to give the nod to Aaron Las Heras since the proven All-American is adding to Northern Arizona’s national title push, effectively extending their dynasty if they win yet again.

In the grand scheme of things, you could argue that his impact is greater.

However, Wilson enters as a dark horse contender for an individual national title. He has already shown championship pedigree at the Division Three level. And if the rise in competition ultimately improves his personal bests of 1:46 (800) and 3:55 (mile), then he’ll be in the mix for multiple All-American finishes and perhaps more.

Scotty: I’ll flip the script here and give the nod to Aaron Las Heras’ move to Flagstaff, Arizona. I would also slightly push back on Maura’s comment about Las Heras "just" adding depth.

With George Kusche not coming back, the Lumberjacks desperately needed a high-performing veteran like Las Heras to have a chance at defending their national title streak. Not only that, but Las Heras is an upgrade at their fourth or fifth scoring slot (and could potentially be even higher in their lineup next fall).

Ryan Wilson is a complete stud as mentioned by Gavin and Maura, but without the Las Heras move, I’m not sure that the NAU men would have a great chance at keeping their title streak alive.

Finn: I’m with Scotty on this one!

Ryan Wilson is phenomenal and I don’t doubt that he will have a huge impact on the Blue Devils. But Aaron Las Heras is going to be an integral part of Northern Arizona's lineup this fall and could very well be what keeps their dynasty alive.

On his best day, Las Heras is a fierce competitor and he can certainly help bridge the gap between the Lumberjack’s 1-2 punch and the rest of their scorers. As Scotty added, George Kusche will not be returning to this team in the fall, so an experienced cross country star is a necessity for the Lumberjacks if they want to repeat their national title victory from 2022.

Maura: Ya know, a lot will have to go right for Ole Miss this season in order for them to ensure qualification for the cross country national meet.

Yes, they do benefit from being in the somewhat less competitive South region and I admittedly don’t see a world where the Rebels finish outside of the top-four at their regional meet. But they'll likely need Kolas points rather than a top-two spot in their region to advance.

The real story for the Ole Miss men will come down to how well their new transfers acclimate to a new training philosophy and how the team as a whole fares during the regular season. Their ability to earn multiple Kolas points is going to be the make-or-break development that leaves them on or off the national stage.

And at the moment, I think I'm leaning towards no.

Gavin: It takes some projections and the assumption that these transfers will make a fast assimilation to a new program, but Ole Miss should be back on the national stage come November.

That’s more so a credit to what has become one of the more consistent distance programs in the South region, now under second-year cross country coach, Adam Smith. Some of these transfers are more accomplished on the track, but Ole Miss should have enough experience and firepower to coalesce in time to punch their tickets to Panorama Farms.

Scotty: I’m not confident at all in the Ole Miss men qualifying for the national meet. They simply lost too much and the three transfers who they are getting can only do so much, regardless of the quality of incoming talent.

Toby Gillen could absolutely perform well enough to qualify for the national meet as an individual, but I just don’t see how the rest of this team will crystallize in the fall of 2023.

With that being said, I hope I’m proven wrong. Use this as bulletin board material, Rebels.

Maura: It’s a 2 for me in regards to Izaiah Steury’s transfer from Notre Dame to Oregon.

Steury signed his National Letter of Intent to attend Notre Dame with the thought that he would be coached by Coach Sean Carlson. But with his coach suddenly accepting a position at Tennessee last summer, Steury was ultimately left with a decision to make: Stay or go.

Ultimately, the freshman chose to represent the Fighting Irish last fall and had a very respectable cross country season for a rookie. Steury’s 63rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships capped off a strong collegiate start, but then we didn’t see him race during the winter or spring months. He later committed to transferring to the Ducks in the spring.

Coach Jerry Schumacher redshirted a good number of his freshmen from last year and recruited one of the best domestic incoming distance classes, maybe ever. Steury will no doubt only add to the rise of Oregon after an "off" year.

Given three years, the Ducks could be back on the podium at the cross country national meet given the talent, depth and experience of their roster, as well as the hope to live up to the legacy of the Oregon program.

Gavin: I would only give this a 4 for my surprise level.

It’s no shock that Steury would opt to transfer after Coach Sean Carlson left South Bend, although he is an Indiana native. Oregon feels like a fitting landing spot where Steury will instantly be one of the more accomplished long distance talents on the roster.

In fact, he’ll likely be the Ducks' top scorer this year with Aaron Bienenfeld now departing.

A reasonable, optimistic expectation for the Ducks over Steury’s next three years is a top-15 team finish in the fall of 2023, a top-10 team finish in the fall of 2024, followed by a podium result in the fall of 2025. At last year’s NCAA XC Championships, Oregon overachieved in relation to their regular season output, finishing 16th overall.

With a TSR #1 distance-based recruiting class in 2021, 2022 and now perhaps 2023, the Ducks are set up for immediate and long-term success under new Director, Jerry Schumacher.

Scotty: I’ll combine the surprise levels given by Maura and Gavin -- give me a 6 out of 10.

As Maura mentioned, Steury was initially planning on being coached by Sean Carlson prior to his move to Tennessee. However, he was still able to put together arguably the best cross country season by any rookie last fall.

Given the success that he experienced in South Bend nine-ish months ago, I was rather surprised that Steury would jump out of that program so quickly. Still, a move to Eugene is exciting and he will be one of the top featured scorers for the Ducks, as Gavin mentioned.

By Steury’s senior year, I expect Jerry Schumacher to have the Oregon men back to the top-10 of the NCAA, but I don’t expect them to crack that barrier until his final year comes. They’ll be relying too heavily on youth for my liking over the next year or two.