TSR Collaboration

Oct 12, 202221 min

The Group Chat: 2022 Nuttycombe Invitational Preview

The biggest (non-national) meet of the year is set to go down in Madison, Wisconsin this Friday! With a large plethora of the most elite cross country teams that the NCAA has to offer all converging in one place, it was only right for our writers to offer their collective thoughts on the meet below.

So without further ado, let's jump straight into it!


Men’s Preview

Between Joey Nokes and Brandon Garnica (BYU), Robert DiDonato and Thomas Boyden (Stanford) and George Kusche and Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)*, which of these scoring duos are the most important for their team’s chances of winning on Friday?

*NOTE: These questions and answers were formed before the individual entries came out on Tuesday night. Colin Sahlman is listed as an entrant for NAU and would have been considered for this question if he was originally expected to race.

Gavin: I think the performances I’ll put the most weight on is Nokes and Garnica. There’s a good chance that Stanford sees other young scorers step up. As for George Kusche, while a superstar talent, has often fluctuated between up-and-down races and I think there are a few more options who can step in for him.

As for the Cougars, Garnica was supposed to be a rock-steady third scorer after twice placing in the top-60 at the NCAA XC Championships, nearly placing much higher at the 2021 winter national meet before recording a DNF.

However, Garnica's 80th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree earlier this season could have been a major derailment for the Provo-based men if not for Joey Nokes placing 10th in a major breakout performance.

That's why I’ll be curious to see if Garnica draws closer to his All-American potential in an extremely competitive race and if Nokes can replicate his massive result from a few weeks ago.

Maura: I'll say that George Kusche and Theo Quax of Northern Arizona will be the most important contributors to the Lumberjacks' roster this weekend.

Kusche will need to return to his All-American form after his sub-par 86th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, an effort that left him out of his team's scoring-five. We know that this veteran is capable of a higher finish this weekend, but consistency has eluded him.

Quax, a veteran of this NAU program, had arguably the best cross country race of his collegiate career at the IU Coaching Tree Invite at the beginning of the season, winning by eight seconds. With a win already under his belt, the momentum is there.

NAU needs Kusche to return to his top-15 capabilities while Quax needs to use his winning performance from IU to fuel his performance if the Lumberjacks want to take down BYU and Stanford this weekend.

Garrett: I'll go with Stanford's Thomas Boyden and Robert DiDonato.

There's a lot of talk about how the Cardinal have young depth, but I didn't exactly see title-winning depth from this team at the Cowboy Jamboree. Until I do see that, Boyden and DiDonato will be easily be the most important support scorers in the country.

If any of Stanford's top-five men have a bad race, then their chances of earning a win in a field like this falters dramatically. With Boyden and DiDonato running so well a few weeks ago, the Cardinal men would have comfortably won the Cowboy Jamboree had Ky Robinson toed the line for that race.

That's why I can't see any supporting scorers being more instrumental to a team's success this fall than what Boyden and DiDonato can offer to Stanford.

The team with the most to prove is ____________.

Gavin: Colorado. The Buffaloes started the season with a high billing, sitting at TSR #5 in our preseason rankings. However, their chances of their first podium finish since 2019 was perhaps cut in half after their unexciting 7th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree.

Colorado's contingent of interchangeable veterans collectively fell too far back in that season-opening race as individual scorers. Part of that, however, can be attributed to Austin Vancil not racing.

Luckily for the Buffs, he is expected to toe the line on Friday.

It will be interesting to see if Colorado can return to their expected form, utilize their depth to close the scoring gaps in an even bigger field. It would also be nice to have someone in their varsity lineup emerge as an elite low-stick alongside Andrew Kent.

If a few things break right, then Colorado could gain some much-needed confidence ahead of a push to defend their PAC-12 title two weeks later.

Maura: Harvard. Acer Iverson and Graham Blanks have produced some outstanding firepower at the front of this lineup, but the rest of the Crimson's cross country roster needs to significantly cut-down on their scoring gaps.

At the Cowboy Jamboree a few weeks ago, Iverson placed 6th while Blanks finished 13th. However, there was a fairly large drop-off after those two guys to Harvard's third scorer, David Melville.

Melville crossed the line in 64th place and then Harvard's lineup gaps extended even further back to their remaining two scorers. The Crimson ended up producing a 1:44 time-spread between their top-five runners and they finished a modest 12th place overall in that Cowboy Jamboree field.

And coming into this weekend, those gaps could be even more vulnerable.

Any kind of performance like that at Nuttycombe will hurt the Crimson’s chances of being a top-half team during the championship portion of the season. Iverson and Blanks can’t do much more than they have, so it all comes down to the other men on this team toeing the line to pick up the pieces and work on much tighter pack-running.

Garrett: It's gotta be Oregon.

Sure, they have Aaron Bienenfeld, but who else is going to support this lineup? They have a plethora of options, and I'm sure that we'll see someone have a big race, but is their lineup going to be able to score enough Kolas points?

We've been critical of this team, and they are likely more focused on the future than now, but this is a historical powerhouse that I have much more concern than optimism about. If they can shake off those concerns on Friday, then that would be huge.

Which team are you most interested in seeing during Friday’s race?

Gavin: Gonzaga is the most intriguing team in this field.

We’ve seen most of the nation’s top squads race against each other this year, and the Bulldogs are no exception. The difference, however, is that Gonzaga wasn't at full strength at the Cowboy Jamboree. That's a major reason why they still stand at TSR #11 in our team rankings despite placing 10th in Stillwater, Oklahoma a few weeks ago.

However, with James Mwaura, an established veteran low-stick, and Evan Bates not listed in these Nuttycombe entries, we now have a series of questions and plenty of uncertainty.

The Bulldogs finished a respectable 10th in that deep Cowboy Jamboree field, but their ceiling as a fringe top-10 breakout team is now significantly more limited without Mwaura.

The other two low-sticks on the roster, Wil Smith and Yacine Guermali, have never been at their best at the same time. That could theoretically mean that this team has more potential to tap into during Friday's race if they both have their best performances.

With so many moving parts and so much more scoring responsibility placed on less proven men in this lineup, the Zags will have their work cut-out for them this Friday.

Maura: Wisconsin. The Badgers return to their home course after a dominating 31-point margin of victory at the Griak Invitational two weeks ago. All five of Wisconsin’s scorers placed within the top-14 and were separated by a mere eight seconds.

Coach Mick Byrne’s top-seven is arguably one of the most complete lineups in this field, at least on paper. Jackson Sharp, Bob Liking and Jack Meijer look like they could all be low-stick scorers for the Badgers in this race. Meanwhile, Charlie Wheeler, Shuaib Aljabaly, Evan Bishop and Rowen Ellenberg provide outstanding depth which also happens to very experienced.

Based strictly on their roster, this team looks like they could be scary good.

It will also be interesting to see how redshirt freshman Adam Spencer, a 3:37 runner over 1500 meters and recent Loyola Lakefront champion, performs on Friday. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him seamlessly slide into a top-seven position.

Garrett: Definitely Villanova for me.

Putting four men in the top-10 at Paul Short without Haftu Strintzos was monumental. If Strintzos had run, then the Wildcats would have dominated the North Carolina men.

So what should we expect from the Villanova men this weekend? Does adding Strintzos to this lineup actually put this team in the conversation to beat the Tar Heels? Can this team show better season-long consistency that they failed to display after last year's Paul Short effort? Will their lack of depth hurt them in a larger field?

I don't have the answers to any of those questions, but few teams are more fascinating than the Villanova men are going into Friday.

Which team is primed to surprise everyone at Nuttycombe later this week?

Gavin: I’m not sure the host school qualifies as a "surprise" team, but the Wisconsin men had a quietly dominant performance in winning the Griak Invitational a few weeks ago. That result came in spite of front-runner Bob Liking having an “off” race as he finished 6th overall.

The Badgers are ranked at TSR #9, but still find themselves listed behind six other teams in this field. Finishing within (or near) the top-five teams, as they did last year, is not out of the question given their incredible depth and familiarity with this course.

Doing exactly that may indicate that the Badgers, a historic powerhouse, are set for their first top-10 finish at the NCAA XC Championships since 2018.

But hey, maybe I’m just biased because I wrote their preview.

Maura: In our most recent team rankings update, the Syracuse Orange went from the land of "Honorable Mention" to our TSR #18 spot following their 8th place showing at the Cowboy Jamboree.

The top-four men on this roster were very strong in that race and demonstrated elite pack-running at Oklahoma State. However, their fifth runner will make all the difference for Syracuse in a deep Nuttycombe field.

And if that happens, then Syracuse will surprise the rest of the NCAA even more than they already did a few weeks ago -- although some may say that they were already expected to run that well.

Paul O’Donnell, a recent transfer to Syracuse from a university in Ireland, is already making an impact for the team. His 31st place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree might not jump off the page, but when you pair his finish with the 34th place finish of true freshman Assaf Harari, the 35th place finish of Nathan Lawler and the 41st place finish of Nathan Henderson, then we will gladly bring the Orange up in this conversation.

This Friday, it will be crucial for the Orange's fifth scorer to find their way closer to the rest of this pack in order for Syracuse to pull the upsets that we think their lineup is capable of.

Noah Carey, a 13:53 (5k) runner, could be that guy, but it will not be an easy task.

Garrett: Gavin and Maura are two of our best analysts, but I don't like either of those answers.

My choice would be Michigan.

This team struggled a bit at Joe Piane, placing 8th in that loaded field. Naturally, I think everyone will write them off going into Nuttycombe. But the men of Big Blue didn't field their projected low-stick (Tom Brady) in South Bend, although he is entered for Friday's race.

And in a Nuttycombe field that is larger and deeper than what Joe Piane offered, the scoring jump that we'll see from Brady, compounded with the rise of Nick Foster and Arjun Jha, gives the Wolverines a much better scoring trio than some people realize.

Which team are you the most unsure of?

Gavin: Portland could either thrive in this field because of their depth or be swallowed up by the field without a true star-caliber runner at the front of their lineup.

Oregon beat the Pilots rather convincingly at the Bill Dellinger Invitational, but Portland was hardly at full strength then and they notoriously peak in the postseason.

That may mean that we shouldn’t put much stock into what they do on Friday, but it’s tough to know what to expect of this program come November when they've had an ever-so-gradual decline since their podium finish in 2018.

Maura: The Oregon men are obviously in a rebuilding year after the loss of key veterans to their program and a coaching change. They will be racing in their first truly competitive race of the season following their win at the Dellinger Invitational.

The Ducks, who are currently a "Just Missed" team in our team rankings, benefit from having a nationally elite low-stick in Aaron Bienenfield, but then things get a little dicey after him.

Who will step up?

Can Quincey Norman use his 13:48 (5k) strength to move up in the field? Will it be Abdinasir Hussein, Cameron Stein or James Gormley who produce a breakout race? What about Oregon lone freshman entrant, Jack Edwards?

There are a lot of questions surrounding what the Ducks will look like when they face the nation’s top talent on Fridayand a lot will be riding on their performance. I’m not expecting a top-10 finish from Coach Jerry Schumacher’s team, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t surprise us.

Garrett: I'm back to really liking both of the answers that Maura and Gavin offered. However, if I'm going to be different, than I'll say Michigan State.

The Spartans have been fine so far this season, but I still have SO many questions about their roster. Luckily, I think we'll get some answers on Friday.

Is Aden Smith the real deal? Just how good is teammate Abdifetah Ahmed? D2 transfer CarLee Stimpfel appears to be racing, but how good will he actually be in this field? And how about rookie superstar, Riley Hough? He was incredible in high school, but how good will he be as a collegiate in his first year in the NCAA?

I have no idea what to think about this team and frankly, I'm not sure anyone outside of East Lansing has a good idea, either.

Finish the sentence: ________ MUST run well on Friday if they want to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.

Maura: I'll steal Garrett's answer from above and say Michigan State.

Aden Smith is on a roll this season after two top-three finishes, one of which was a shocking win at the Griak Invitational. Meanwhile, teammate Abdifetah Ahmed has also been impressive with his runner-up finish at the Michigan BIG 10 Preview and then a 3rd place finish at that same Griak Invitational race.

If those two men can produce top-20 finishes in a much deeper Nuttycombe field, then the back-half of their lineup will just need one or two names to truly step up.

And the good news is that both CarLee Stimpfel (an elite D2 transfer) and Riley Hough (an elite high school recruit) are in Friday's entry list. If they run as well as we think they can, then the Spartans could salvage a few Kolas points and effectively extend their season.

Gavin: I'll go with NC State.

I was confident that the Wolfpack would find their way back to the NCAA XC Championships after a brief reprieve last fall. However, a 9th place finish at the Joe Piane Invitational, while hardly a death knell, didn’t exactly inspire much confidence.

However, when you consider that Ian Shanklin has reemerged as a low-stick and that two strong veteran runners, Robinson Snider and Hannes Burger, didn’t race in South Bend a couple of weeks ago, then the ‘Pack may still be sitting pretty.

With both Snider and Burger set to race on Friday, the NC State men could end up snagging a handful of valuable Kolas points at this meet and then once again in a deep ACC field.

Garrett: The answer is definitely Georgetown.

The Hoyas look decent this year, but not amazing, either. They feel like the clear third-best team in the Mid-Atlantic region behind Villanova and Princeton. And without a fourth team in the region to potentially push the Georgetown men into the national meet, the Hoyas will almost definitely need to score enough Kolas points to advance.

And after not beating a limited North Carolina team at the IU Coaching Tree Invite, the Hoyas will have to have the best race of their season if they want to enter the BIG East XC Championships with slightly less pressure.

Who is the individual favorite in this field?

Gavin: I think it’s Charles Hicks until proven otherwise.

He was ranked TSR #1 before the season (after removing those who didn't return) and fell only to Alex Maier, who won’t be in this race, in a deep Cowboy Jamboree field.

Hicks is also the top returner from last year’s Nuttycombe race after finishing 3rd. He feels more like a safe top-five pick than clear top-runner, but he’s got the best resume in this field.

Maura: Hicks would’ve been my go-to guy, but rather than expanding upon what is already written up by Gavin, I’m going to make the case for Oregon’s Aaron Bienenfeld.

I might be a little hesitant on the Ducks as a team, but Bienenfeld is an established competitor and was the 4th place finisher last fall at Nuttycombe. A win has started his 2022 cross country season and that streak could continue this weekend when he faces the likes of BYU, Stanford and Northern Arizona.

Bienenfeld is no stranger when it comes to challenging for a top finish and this might be his opportunity to prove that Coach Jerry Schumacher’s coaching philosophy has translated well as he has come back to the college scene.

Garrett: It's Hicks. I just think he's the most well-rounded cross country runner in the NCAA right now, even if he did lose to Alex Maier earlier this season. Like Gavin said, Hicks is probably the safest answer you could choose, although I also like Maura's suggestion of Aaron Bienenfeld.


Women’s Preview

What percent chance would you give the NC State women to win this race on Friday?

Maura: 90%.

Tuohy, Bush, Seymour and Starliper are just so. darn. good. Top-25 finishes aren’t out of the question for that quartet. Their fifth scorer is obviously just as important as their first, so whoever takes over that roll this weekend, be that Kelsey Chmiel, Savannah Shaw, Gionna Quarzo or Mariah Howlett, gives the Wolfpack plenty of options to quickly close-out their top-five.

Either Chmiel or Shaw, likely the former, will be this team's fifth runner, although we don't exactly know what to expect from them, especially Chmiel who has potentially dealt with (unconfirmed) rumors of a foot issue.

Still, it's hard to see how this team loses.

Gavin: 85%. I’m about as bullish as Maura is, but it’s difficult to give a team a near-definite chance of winning when we don’t know for certain that they will be at full strength...although it is encouraging to see Chmiel and Shaw in the entries.

Still, that probably doesn’t matter anyway given that the Wolfpack won the Joe Piane Invitational without Chmiel to begin with. New Mexico's depth does make the Lobos more of a factor in an even larger field, but NC State is very clearly the better team.

Garrett: Give me 92%.

NC State is just the best team in this field. If you want to beat them, you likely have to match their firepower, rather than their depth...and that's really hard to do.

With both Chmiel and Shaw returning, the New Mexico women will need to have multiple runners have the best races of their career to even come close to matching the Wolfpack during Friday's race.

Which women’s team has the most upside going into Friday’s race? And why?

Maura: Washington will be fielding Haley Herberg and Madison Heisterman to add strong scoring reinforcements (and depth) to a very young lineup.

At the Cowboy Jamboree, Coach Maurica Powell had three freshmen in her top-six and they didn’t show too much inexperience as they helped the Huskies finish 8th overall without Herberg and Heisterman.

Another top-10 finish on Friday wouldn’t be out of the question for Washington this weekend, especially if Anna Gibson runs as well as she did a few weeks ago.

The Huskies might not be an automatic top-five team in this field with the current roster that they have, but they have a few pieces to add who will be instrumental to this team's success on Friday. I could see this team skyrocketing up the standings.

Gavin: The Northern Arizona women are playing with house money after a surprise runner-up finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, behind only the host school.

This group has unlocked much more upside thanks to the apparent emergence of new low-sticks in Elise Stearns and Annika Reiss. However, maybe more importantly, Taryn O'Neill didn't have her best day at the Cowboy Jamboree, meaning that there may be even greater firepower still on this roster for Friday's race.

Can they leapfrog Colorado, BYU and Stanford again? I think they can. And if they do, then we'll have no choice but to consider Northern Arizona as a legitimate podium contender.

Garrett: Arkansas without a doubt.

Isabel Van Camp was great at the Cowboy Jamboree and I really liked what rookie Mia Cochran was able to do in that race as well. But I refuse to believe that what we saw from Thorvaldson, Ewert and Hyde a few weeks ago is the best that they can do.

Not only that, but there are also so many uber-talented youngsters on this roster who have yet to truly shine. I'm confident that there is some untapped upside within some of these underclassmen who could really shine at Nuttycombe this weekend.

The team with the most to prove is ____________.

Maura: Colorado State, who are listed at TSR #22 in our most recent rankings update, need to prove why they belong as a top-20 team after we dropped them four spots.

At the Griak Invitational, the Rams were only two points shy of a 3rd place finish thanks to an 8-9-12 showing from their top-three women. The trio of Sarah Carter, Lily Tomasula-Martin and Annabel Stafford were promising front-runners who offered excellent scoring sparks at the front of that race.

However, the fourth and fifth scorers on this team will ultimately be the determining factors as to how Colorado State performs on Friday. With so many people so high on the Rams coming into this season (not just from TSR), the CSU women have to prove that they are the real deal two days from now.

Gavin: I'll go in a similar, yet starkly different, direction than where Maura went.

Colorado State's more-heralded rival, located an hour south, could use a strong race. The Colorado Buffaloes will be looking for a slight course of correction after an uninspiring, but hardly terrible, performance at the Cowboy Jamboree which resulted in them dropping a few spots in our team rankings.

This group is still very much a podium contender, but between Stanford, Northern Arizona and BYU, it would help their stock quite a bit if they took down two of those three teams.

In theory, that would only require getting slightly-improved results from front-runners Emily Covert and Bailey Hertenstein as well as actually having Hannah Miniutti finish her race this time around.

Garrett: I think it's Wisconsin.

They had a really promising cross country season last fall. However, after returning so many key names, they were flat-out bad at the Griak Invitational a few weeks ago, placing 6th overall.

Granted, the Badgers didn't have Stella Gillman, Danielle Orie or Alexa Westley for that race, but even if they had toed the line, then the Wisconsin women would have still had a lot of work to do.

Friday will be a massive opportunity for this team to prove that their performance from a few weeks ago was just a fluke and that their success from last fall can translate to 2022.

If you had to bet your life savings (theoretically, of course) on a non-ranked team (according to TSR) cracking the top-10 in this field, which team would that be and why?

Maura: Furman, led by front-runner Bethany Graham, has the potential to crack the top-10 if the Paladins improve upon their recent results.

Graham is a shoe-in to finish amongst the top-15, but it’s the next four women in this lineup who will be game-changers for this team.

Outside of Graham, Furman will likely rely on veteran Abigail Robertson, as well as underclassmen Jenna Mulhren, Meghan Ford and Megan Marvin, to finish better than expected.

If just two of those women make a significant jump, and I think a lot of these younger runners are certainly capable of doing so, then I could see the Paladins taking 9th or 10th place.

At the same time, it's a little harder to gauge how these underclassmen will fare in a nationally competitive race, but after a respectable performance in Louisville, the ceiling is high for the Paladins.

Gavin: I'm leaning towards Toledo, mainly because they’ve displayed the ability to be near that top-10 range in prior meets.

And by that, I mean being in the top-10 range on Friday and a top-25 ranked team. The Rockets were in our TSR preseason rankings before dropping to our “Just Missed” category last week.

The Rockets posted a solid, but-unspectacular, 7th place finish at Joe Piane, but that was also an improvement upon their 9th place performance at that meet from last year (in a less competitive field).

Joy Chirchir is a true low-stick and Toledo has strong depth behind her. All they realistically need is for Faith Linga and Lou Trouis to bridge the gap between their scoring stabilizers and for their strong secondary scorers to be closer to the front end of the field.

If those two women improve on their 43rd and 44th place results from Joe Piane just slightly, then the Rockets will surely be capable of knocking off a couple of top-25 teams and building some momentum as they enter the postseason.

Garrett: I don't exactly love my options, but I'll go with Utah State.

The Aggies' 4th place finish at Paul Short wasn't ideal, but it wasn't bad, either. They were within reasonable striking distance of Providence and they took down a Utah Valley team which, admittedly, just had an "off" day.

BYU transfer Ana Waver looked like a potential low-stick, Micaela Rivera looked strong and the backend scorers, while a bit further back, didn't have many gaps between them. I think there is a lot of promise on this team and I think they will hold their own on Friday.

Finish the sentence: Katelyn Tuohy will win by _______ seconds on Friday.

Maura: 17 seconds.

Emily Venters of Utah, Everlyn Kemboi of Utah Valley, Kaylee Mitchell of Oregon State and any of her NC State teammates could challenge Tuohy for the win, but a victory is still in the cards for the national title favorite.

Following her 15:50 (5k) and 12-second win over Mercy Chelangat at Joe Piane two weeks ago, Tuohy has shown us that she can distance herself from the field and still grind away for a fast time.

Gavin: 12 seconds.

Seven of the last eight margins of victory at this meet have come by less than 10 seconds with the exception being Ednah Kurgat in 2017 (16.2 seconds).

I see Tuohy winning comfortably, but running a fast enough time while not being pushed to the line, all while facing an elite field, is hard to do.

Her greatest challenger is probably Everlyn Kemboi, an NC State teammate, or someone from New Mexico or BYU. On paper, nobody in that group stands out as someone who can come within 15 seconds of challenging Tuohy head-to-head over 6000 meters.

Still, it’s more likely than not that someone steps up and either separates from the second pack or pushes Tuohy for a decent portion of the race.

Garrett: 17 seconds. I agree with Maura.

I just don't know who is realistically going to come close to Katelyn Tuohy on Friday.

Admittedly, a lot of assumptions about how Tuohy is going to approach this race needs to be made in order to answer this question. But who in this field is going to come within 15 seconds of Tuohy if she was able to beat Mercy Chelangat by 12 seconds, a gap which largely came over the last 1000 meters?

Everlyn Kemboi, Emily Covert and teammate Samantha Bush are all interesting names to monitor, but if Tuohy wants to make a statement, then a 17-second margin of victory sounds realistic.

The most important woman in this field who is NOT currently ranked in our XC Top-50 is…

Maura: Kelsey Harrington (North Carolina). She lurks in the shadows behind front-running teammate Brynn Brown, but she is also someone who could sneak her way into the top-25 at Nuttycombe on the right day.

Harrington, only a sophomore, has consistently finished amongst the top-eight of her meets this season, most notably finishing 8th at Paul Short in a slightly deeper field than what she saw at the IU Coaching Tree Invite.

Nuttycombe could be where Harrington makes a name for herself amongst the NCAA’s best.

Gavin: Colorado’s Hannah Miniutti.

The sophomore was the third-best Colorado runner in our preseason rankings for our preseason TSR #4 team, residing in our "Honorable Mentions" section.

However, this rising ace recorded a DNF result at the Cowboy Jamboree and saw her team get passed up in the standings by a couple powerhouse rivals as a result.

With the quick assimilation of Division Three mile national champion Ella Baran, there will be less pressure on Miniutti to get up to speed. That, of course, doesn’t make her role any less important as she aims to provide strong complementary scoring from a middle lineup spot and help Colorado reemerge as a prime podium contender entering the postseason.

Garrett: Both of those are good answers, but I'll say Maddy Denner.

Few women in the NCAA have more raw talent than Denner does. She has run ridiculously fast times and has had moments where she's peaked better than almost any other woman in the country.

But Denner has struggled quite a bit with consistency and her last effort at Joe Piane was underwhelming. If she runs well, then the scoring structure of Notre Dame's lineup changes significantly (in a beneficial way).

But if she doesn't, then the Irish will likely falter outside of the top-10.

And honestly, your guess as to what will happen is as good as mine.

Give us your bold prediction for Friday

Maura: The Northern Arizona women will have three women in the top-20. Elise Stearns, Annika Reiss and Taryn O’Neill are who you want leading the Lumberjacks following their 5th, 6th and 22nd place finishes, respectively, at the Cowboy Jamboree.

O’Neill is much more capable of a top-10 showing based on her resume. And if Stearns and Reiss can show us that their Cowboy Jamboree performances weren’t just one-and-done efforts, then we will be in for a treat with NAU come Friday.

Gavin: The NC State women will get three scorers across before any other team gets two. Tuohy’s the runaway favorite, Bush shouldn’t be far behind and Chmiel is expected to be somewhere between those two women when she's at her best.

And even if Chmiel isn’t in perfect form in her season debut, then Sydney Seymour should be contending for top-10 honors. New Mexico and Colorado should have two runners near the top-10, but the Wolfpack could have four if you consider Marlee Starliper as well.

Garrett: BYU's Jenna Hutchins shakes off two rough season openers and records a top-30 finish during Friday's race.


Final Predictions

Garrett:

Teams (Men)

  1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

  2. Stanford Cardinal

  3. BYU Cougars

  4. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  6. Colorado Buffaloes

  7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  8. Villanova Wildcats

  9. Wisconsin Badgers

  10. Michigan Wolverines

Individuals (Men)

  1. Charles Hicks (Stanford)

  2. Aaron Bienenfeld (Oregon)

  3. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)

  4. Cole Sprout (Stanford)

  5. Acer Iverson (Harvard)

  6. Casey Clinger (BYU)

  7. Ky Robinson (Stanford)

  8. Haftu Strintzos (Villanova)

  9. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

  10. Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)

  11. Fearghal Curtin (Florida State)

  12. Bob Liking (Wisconsin)

  13. Andrew Kent (Colorado)

  14. Christian Allen (BYU)

  15. Cormac Dalton (Tulsa)

  16. Graham Blanks (Harvard)

  17. Ezekiel Rop (Iowa State)

  18. Josh Methner (Notre Dame)

  19. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)

  20. Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)

Teams (Women)

  1. NC State Wolfpack

  2. New Mexico Lobos

  3. BYU Cougars

  4. Colorado Buffaloes

  5. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

  6. Georgetown Hoyas

  7. Stanford Cardinal

  8. Washington Huskies

  9. Utah Utes

  10. North Carolina Tar Heels

Individuals (Women)

  1. Katelyn Tuohy (NC State)

  2. Everlyn Kemboi (Utah Valley)

  3. Emily Covert (Colorado)

  4. Emily Venters (Utah)

  5. Samantha Bush (NC State)

  6. Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State)

  7. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU)

  8. Gracelyn Larkin (New Mexico)

  9. Bailey Hertenstein (Colorado)

  10. Taryn O’Neill (Northern Arizona)

  11. Bethany Graham (Furman)

  12. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico)

  13. Sydney Seymour (NC State)

  14. Kelsey Chmiel (NC State)

  15. Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame)

  16. Brynn Brown (North Carolina)

  17. Emma Heckel (New Mexico)

  18. Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)

  19. Zofia Dudek (Stanford)

  20. Maggie Donahue (Georgetown)

Maura:

Teams (Men)

  1. Stanford Cardinal

  2. BYU Cougars

  3. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

  4. North Carolina Tar Heels

  5. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

  6. Colorado Buffaloes

  7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  8. Wisconsin Badgers

  9. Iowa State Cyclones

  10. Harvard Crimson

Individuals (Men)

  1. Aaron Bienenfeld (Oregon)

  2. Charles Hicks (Stanford)

  3. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)

  4. Acer Iverson (Harvard)

  5. Bob Liking (Wisconsin)

  6. Cole Sprout (Stanford)

  7. Casey Clinger (BYU)

  8. Aden Smith (Michigan State)

  9. Andrew Kent (Colorado)

  10. Haftu Strintzos (Villanova)

  11. Christian Allen (BYU)

  12. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

  13. Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)

  14. Cormac Dalton (Tulsa)

  15. Ky Robinson (Stanford)

  16. Fearghal Curtin (Florida State)

  17. Brian Fay (Washington)

  18. Graham Blanks (Harvard)

  19. Joey Nokes (BYU)

  20. Arjun Jha (Michigan)

Teams (Women)

  1. NC State Wolfpack

  2. New Mexico Lobos

  3. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

  4. Colorado Buffaloes

  5. BYU Cougars

  6. Stanford Cardinal

  7. Washington Huskies

  8. North Carolina Tar Heels

  9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  10. Utah Utes

Individuals (Women)

  1. Katelyn Tuohy (NC State)

  2. Everlyn Kemboi (Utah Valley)

  3. Emily Covert (Colorado)

  4. Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State)

  5. Emily Venters (Utah)

  6. Samantha Bush (NC State)

  7. Bailey Hertenstein (Colorado)

  8. Gracelyn Larkin (New Mexico)

  9. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU)

  10. Taryn O’Neill (Northern Arizona)

  11. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico)

  12. Sydney Seymour (NC State)

  13. Savannah Roark (Syracuse)

  14. Bethany Graham (Furman)

  15. Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)

  16. Isabel Van Camp (Arkansas)

  17. Maia Ramsden (Harvard)

  18. Grace Fetherstonhaugh (Oregon State)

  19. Marlee Starliper (NC State)

  20. Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)

Gavin:

Teams (Men)

  1. Stanford Cardinal

  2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

  3. BYU Cougars

  4. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

  5. Colorado Buffaloes

  6. North Carolina Tar Heels

  7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  8. Wisconsin Badgers

  9. Villanova Wildcats

  10. Michigan State Spartans

Individuals (Men)

  1. Charles Hicks (Stanford)

  2. Acer Iverson (Harvard)

  3. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)

  4. Cole Sprout (Stanford)

  5. Casey Clinger (BYU)

  6. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

  7. Aaron Bienenfeld (Oregon)

  8. Ky Robinson (Stanford)

  9. Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)

  10. Fearghal Curtin (Florida State)

  11. Andrew Kent (Colorado)

  12. Haftu Strintzos (Villanova)

  13. Ian Shanklin (NC State)

  14. Aden Smith (Michigan State)

  15. Graham Blanks (Harvard)

  16. Yacine Guermali (Gonzaga)

  17. Cormac Dalton (Tulsa)

  18. Bob Liking (Wisconsin)

  19. Parker Stokes (Georgetown)

  20. Sam Gilman (Air Force)

Teams (Women)

  1. NC State Wolfpack

  2. New Mexico Lobos

  3. BYU Cougars

  4. Colorado Buffaloes

  5. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

  6. Stanford Cardinal

  7. North Carolina Tar Heels

  8. Georgetown Hoyas

  9. Washington Huskies

  10. Wisconsin Badgers

Individuals (Women)

  1. Katelyn Tuohy (NC State)

  2. Everlyn Kemboi (Utah State)

  3. Samantha Bush (NC State)

  4. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU)

  5. Emily Venters (Utah)

  6. Kelsey Chmiel (NC State)

  7. Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State)

  8. Emily Covert (Colorado)

  9. Emma Heckel (New Mexico)

  10. Bailey Hertenstein (Colorado)

  11. Gracelyn Larkin (New Mexico)

  12. Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame)

  13. Sydney Seymour (NC State)

  14. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico)

  15. Taryn O’Neill (Northern Arizona)

  16. Marlee Starliper (NC State)

  17. Isabel Van Camp (Arkansas)

  18. Maggie Donahue (Georgetown)

  19. Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)

  20. Joy Chirchir (Toledo)

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