The Bienenfeld Boost

It's a classic "rich get richer" story.

A great team with a history of excellence that is poised for future success suddenly jumps into a different, arguably better, category of contenders seemingly overnight. And it happens thanks to the (eventual) introduction of just one new name.

Aaron Bienenfeld is expected to join the Oregon men as a graduate transfer starting in the fall of 2021. The Cincinnati ace has been an athlete who has made significant improvements over the past two years, securing top cross country finishes and throwing down nationally competitive marks.

Last fall, Bienenfeld went undefeated through four cross country races (albeit, some fields being more competitive than others) before ultimately winning the Great Lakes regional title. However, the Bearcat star didn't contest the NCAA Championships. Instead, he went back to Germany where he would earn the right to represent his country at the U23 European Cross Country Championships.

Fast forward seven months later and Bienenfeld was once again venturing overseas to race in Europe where he recorded eyebrow-raising personal bests of 13:42 (5k) and 28:46 (10k). Those times, paired with the plethora of encouraging performances from the 2020 indoor track season, validated Bienenfeld as one of the NCAA's better distance runners.

Now, at the conclusion of the 2020-21 academic year, Bienenfeld will make his way to Eugene, Oregon and join a powerhouse program that has already begun to develop some of the best firepower in the nation.

On paper, few teams have been more impressive than the Oregon men during the craziness that is 2020. After a 3000 meter time trial in November, which was rumored to have produced times of 7:44 (Teare), 7:45 (Hocker) and 7:50 (Hunter), that same trio of Ducks traveled to California where they would drop three incredibly strong personal bests in the 5000 meters.

Teare etched his name into the all-time ranks with a legendary mark of 13:17 while 19-year old Cole Hocker threw down what was (relatively speaking) the most impressive performance of the weekend, running a time of 13:32. As for Hunter, he was a bit further back, but still ran a respectable 13:57 PR of his own.

It's important to detail these results not because they were exciting performances, but because the massive improvements made by the Oregon men could have a larger impact on the national cross country picture both this winter and next fall.

Based solely on 5k personal bests, the Ducks projected cross country lineup for this winter could have a top four featuring Cooper Teare (13:17), Cole Hocker (13:32), Jackson Mestler (13:36) and Charlie Hunter (13:57). That theoretical scoring group doesn't even take into account other key names such as Carter Christman, Reed Brown, Jack Yearian, current freshmen and incoming freshmen.

Still, plenty of questions remain as to what this Oregon group will look like when they spike up and take to the grass. And truthfully, all of those questions center around whether or not the Ducks will be able to consistently translate their success from the grass to the track.

From a scoring perspective, Teare (TSR #2) can't get much better. However, if Hocker, Mestler and Hunter are all able to replicate their current fitness either this winter or next fall, then the projected scoring potency of this team could be mind-boggling.

That, of course, is something that remains to be seen. After all, the idea that all three of those men could join Cooper Teare as cross country All-Americans seems overly optimistic.

And yet, somehow, plenty realistic.

Despite their recent string of thrilling results, all that we can admittedly do when talking about this Oregon team is speculate when it comes to their potential cross country performances. However, the eventual introduction of the aforementioned Cincinnati star Aaron Bienenfeld seemingly changes the narrative around this team.

By adding the Germany native to their 2021 roster, the Ducks have gone from a team that would have needed a lot of different things to go right for them in order to be on the podium, to a team that now has to be considered as a podium favorite.

Bienenfeld feels like the missing piece that Oregon needed to truly emerge as one of the NCAA's best cross country teams. He's an established veteran with fast times who has consistently produced top finishes. He theoretically gives his future team a complete top five (assuming Mestler returns) and gives them yet another realistic All-American candidate.

The recent departure of veteran James West, and the uncertainty as to who would fill out the backend of Oregon's varsity seven, seemed like two glaring obstacles in the way of further progress for this team coming into this fall.

Not only that, but there was no guarantee that everyone who is currently on this Oregon roster was going match their ranking that we assigned to them in the summer.

That's why Bienenfeld's eventual introduction to this team is so monumental. He can replicate the scoring value and experience that James West has left behind and continue to add to the growing arsenal of (potential) All-American-caliber weapons that this roster has to offer.

Even if Bienenfeld fails to become the upper-echelon scoring threat that we think he can be -- we had him ranked at TSR #45 in our preseason individual cross country rankings -- he can, at the very least, still be a solid top five scorer who offers plenty of stability in Oregon's lineup.

Although, much like the rest of this Oregon squad, Bienenfeld isn't without his own uncertainty. Despite going undefeated during the 2019 cross country season, the competition that he faced was admittedly thin, running in the "White" race at Pre-Nationals and winning the Great Lakes regional title over athletes who were truthfully more focused on having their teams qualify for the NCAA Championships.

Without him running at the NCAA Championships, trying to gauge Bienenfeld's fitness on the grass becomes just as much of a challenge as trying to gauge the future success as the rest of this roster.

That, however, shouldn't be too much of a concern. After all, anyone who runs 13:42 and 28:46 is typically someone who can be competitive against even the best D1 fields.

Few teams are more intriguing than the PAC-12 juggernaught that dons green and yellow.

Rarely do transfers have the opportunity (and ability) to be as impactful and as valuable as Bienenfeld can be for the Oregon Ducks. And rarely do teams need to wait as long as the Oregon men have to show off their newfound fitness.

Coach Ben Thomas has done all of the right things in terms of development and recruitment. He has timed his moves in such a way that Oregon could potentially sit on the podium come the fall of 2021.

However, just like we've been doing for the past nine months, we'll have to wait and see if our suspicions are true.