Silver State XC Challenge Preview

On Monday, a small field of top NCAA teams will line up in Las Vegas, Nevada to deliver what could be the race of the winter cross country season prior to the NCAA Championships which are scheduled to be held in March.

This odd winter cross country season is shorter than normal and juxtaposed with the indoor track season. Still, we're being treated to a mid-season showdown between some of the best distance programs in the country.

Written by Michael Weidenbruch

For the past few years, the major storyline in men’s cross country has been the ongoing battle between Northern Arizona and BYU. Sure enough, that storyline will continue on Monday as both teams are set to toe the line in what could be another thrilling battle.

We caught a glimpse of these two teams this past fall at the Oklahoma State Invitational where the Lumberjacks toppled the Shumway-less Cougars, 36 points to 59 points (Oklahoma State was 2nd behind NAU). It was only one meet and both teams were without some of their top talents, but it did give us an idea of how these two teams are shaping up for this winter.

With that in mind, it appears that Northern Arizona is coming into the Silver State Collegiate XC Challenge as the pre-race favorite. We can expect the Lumberjacks to be led by Luis Grijalva who won his sole race last fall at the Oklahoma State Invitational, out-kicking Conner Mantz in the final moments of the race.

Grijalva has become a household name in the NCAA distance running community as he is a major contender in any race he enters from the 1500 meters up to the 10k during cross country. Grijalva was ranked at TSR #4 in our fall 2020 cross country rankings and has since moved up to TSR #1 in our winter cross country rankings. He is also listed at TSR #1 in our 2021 indoor track rankings.

Following Grijalva, Northern Arizona has an army of scoring options. Abdihamid Nur is an All-American who was beginning to make a name for himself before the 2020 indoor season came to a halt. Teammate Blaise Ferro also has an All-American honor to his name and has experience running on championship teams.

Ryan Raff and Brodey Hasty are two younger guys who have begun to play key roles in the Lumberjacks’ lineup over the past few seasons and they raced well in the fall. Cade Burks has not raced since the 2020 indoor season, but he has also made his way up the ranks and could be a contributor.

We also saw appearances from redshirt freshmen Corey Gorgas and Caleb Easton last fall. Those two are largely unproven at the collegiate level, but we could see some big contributions from them in this race. They held their own this past fall.

This extensive lineup features some of the best runners in the country, including one young talent who has yet to (officially) don the Lumberjack colors: Nico Young. One of the best high school runners of this era is entered to make his collegiate debut on Monday. After running 13:44 for 5000 meters back in December, it's clear that Young can be a scorer, but we're just not sure at which position that will be.

NAU is an easy pick to win this race, and their lineup speaks for itself. However, key absences from guys like Drew Bosley and Theo Quax isn't entirely ideal. Will that completely ruin the hopes of an NAU victory? No, definitely not, but that could potentially leave enough scoring opportunities available for BYU to take advantage of.

When we look at BYU’s lineup for Monday's race, their varsity seven had the potential to look a bit different than their 2019 title-winning lineup...but they aren’t any less powerful.

Conner Mantz is the NCAA’s top returner from that 2019 season and was ranked at TSR #1 back in the fall when we released our preseason cross country rankings. The BYU star just finished over a second behind Luis Grijalva at the Oklahoma State Invitational in the fall and just recently ran an altitude-converted 7:47 (3k) on BYU’s indoor track.

Saying that Mantz is in shape right now would be an understatement and you can probably guess that he'll be eager to avenge his loss from October.

However, one of the biggest stories from this past fall was seeing Casey Clinger return to competition. We hadn’t seen Clinger compete since the 2017 cross country season where he finished 24th at the NCAA Championships as a true freshman. Despite some concerns as to how fast he would regain his fitness, Clinger has somehow looked better than ever before. He just ran 13:41 for 5000 meters back in December.

Just like Northern Arizona, the Cougars have plenty of options when it comes to filling out the rest of their squad. Clayson Shumway has been plagued by injuries in the last year or so, but he placed 8th at the Oklahoma State Invitational in the fall and just raced the 3k at BYU’s home meet in mid-January.

Shumway ran 8:21 at altitude earlier this season which is not representative of everything he is capable of. Still, it looks like he is finally rounding back into form and could play a major role for the Cougars on Monday. Based on the Oklahoma State Invitational results from last fall, one could argue that Shumway gives BYU the best top-three in the NCAA.

Veteran runners Brandon Garnica, Kramer Morton and Matt Owens are all expected to line up for this race. Each of those three men have extensive experience and have had scattered success in larger fields before.

However, the catalysts capable of giving BYU an upset win are Boise State transfer Elijah Armstrong, current freshman Easton Allred and mission returnee Aidan Troutner. If the Cougars happen to take down Northern Arizona, it could be because one of these men have a breakout performance.

While NAU and BYU automatically enter every race as the title favorites, the Silver State Collegiate XC Challenge has more to offer than just the nation’s top two teams.

Notre Dame is a program that has been on everyone’s radar as they have become one of the NCAA’s top programs over the past few years. Ranked at TSR #5 in our winter cross country rankings, we saw the Fighting Irish make a statement at the ACC Championships this past fall.

Yared Nuguse has won an NCAA title in the 1500 meters and most recently won an ACC title in cross country. Why is that important? Well, it appears that he's strong enough to run a fast 8k, but also has the necessary wheels to stay in contention late in a race. This gives Nuguse a huge tactical advantage, theoretically making him super dangerous in the last mile of most cross country races.

Nuguse may not have the national-level cross country accolades of guys like Luis Grijalva and Conner Mantz, but those guys will have to work to ensure that Nuguse isn’t with them with 400 meters to go.

Dylan Jacobs is next up for the Irish, holding cross country All-American honors. A Foot Locker National Champion in high school, Jacobs has naturally progressed into a NCAA standout on the grass. His classmate, Danny Kilrea, came out of the gates hot as a freshman and despite some struggles during his sophomore season, ran very well at the ACC Championships this past fall. This duo will likely go out with the top group in hopes of disrupting the pre-race favorites.

Josh Methner is a true freshman for the Irish and he was their fourth scorer at the 2020 ACC Championships, finishing 11th overall. He is slated to line up for this race in what will be his first taste of non-ACC competition. Redshirt freshman Jake Renfree lined up for his first few collegiate cross country races in the fall and finished a very respectable 18th place at the ACC Championships.

Those two guys will be crucial determinants of Notre Dame’s success on Monday in a stacked race such as this. The closer they can finish to their top three, the better the team’s chances will be at breaking up Northern Arizona and BYU. That, however, is a lot to ask for from two inexperienced youngsters.

Kevin Salvano and Andrew Alexander will round out the lineup for the Irish and will have the ability to push for those scoring positions. The added depth will be huge for Notre Dame as it takes the pressure off of their younger runners if they don't have their best races. Salvano and Alexander give the Irish more scoring insurance than some may realize.

Outside of those three, the race will likely be very close for the remaining team spots.

We haven't seen the Washington Huskies on the cross country course since the 2019 NCAA Championships, so it's hard to gauge how strong they will be at the moment with no recent results. The Huskies will enter Monday with essentially the same lineup from 2019, although a few new guys have moved in to replace those who have graduated.

Tibebu Proctor, Alex Slenning and Isaac Green were all integral members of that 2019 squad which 19th at the NCAA Championships, although that national lineup didn't have Talon Hull.

During the 2018 cross country season, Proctor and Hull looked like true front-running studs. Proctor eventually became an All-American while Hull nearly upset Grant Fisher at the PAC-12 Championships. However, their 2019 seasons were far quieter. Which version of Proctor and Hull will we see this winter? I suppose we'll find out on Monday.

Isaac Mohn, Luke Houser and Joe Waksom are all younger, less experienced runners who have yet to prove themselves at the highest level of the NCAA (although Houser did run 7:58 for 3000 meters last winter). This race will be the perfect opportunity for some of these younger talents to find their roles within this Washington team. How they perform could determine how we view the Huskies in the NCAA hierarchy this season.

The rest of the field includes Weber State, Air Force and Boise State. These three teams have been on the cusp of national-level success for a few years now. It’s unlikely that we will see any of these programs threatening for a top-three team finish on Monday, but they will have great opportunities to show what they may be capable of at the National Championships later in the season (assuming they qualify).

Let's briefly chat about the Wildcats of Weber State, an interesting team with a lot of potential.

Top runner Christian Allen finished 14th at the 2019 NCAA Cross Country Championships in what was a monumental breakout race for him. However, his past few races, while far from bad, haven't been anywhere near that 14th place finish at the cross country national meet. Could that change in another high-pressure race featuring elite competition? It seems like he does his best racing in these kinds of scenarios.

Another Weber State guy to look out for is Taylor Dillon. He has a 59th place finish at the NCAA Championships on his resume and will likely aim to key off of Allen and insert himself into the lead pack.

The rest of Weber State's pack has numerous scoring options and their depth should help them avoid slipping too far in the results if someone has a bad day.

In the grand scheme of things, the Wildcats don't need to pull off an upset to validate their true talent. They just need to be competitive and prove that they belong amongst the better distance programs in the NCAA.

The men from Air Force and Boise State are relatively young and inexperienced when it comes to this level of competition. Both teams have had plenty of success, but have had their rosters turnover since. This race will serve as an introduction for both teams as they will be hunting for spots to the NCAA Championships in years to come.

Written by Eric Baranoski and Garrett Zatlin

Some of the top teams in the nation have ventured to Las Vegas to collegiate distance running fans another race in the ever-entertaining winter cross country season.

Teams participating in the Women’s Yellow Race (main event) are New Mexico, Boise State, BYU, Northern Arizona, Utah and Washington. With the exception of BYU, all of these women's teams have yet to partake in a cross country race during the 2020-21 academic calendar. TSR has confirmed that only Notre Dame's men's team will be racing in Vegas, not their women's team.

Despite so many top-ranked teams entered to race, it appears that many of these programs aren't sending their full varsity lineups as numerous top-ranked scorers are not expected to toe the line on Monday.

The New Mexico women are supposedly racing in tomorrow's meet, but the entries only list the Lobo men. We're truthfully not sure what that means for tomorrow's meet, but if the Lobo women do field their top runners, then they'll have a chance of taking home the win.

Yes, this team did lose Weini Kelati and Hannah Nutall is no longer listed on the New Mexico roster. However, between Adva Cohen, Anna Kostarellis, Hannah Miller and a few promising supporting scorers such as Gracelyn Larkin and Alex Harris, the Lobos still have plenty of potential to remain competitive in this field.

UPDATE: It does not appear that the New Mexico women will be racing based on their most recent press release.

Still, there are so many new names on this roster and we're not expecting this lineup to look anything like it did last year. Even if we had entries for the New Mexico women, we wouldn't have a great idea of how this collective group would perform until they actually race.

The BYU women are set to field a very competitive lineup featuring Aubrey Frentheway, youngster Lexy Halladay, veteran Anna Camp, returning varsity runner Sara Musselman and rising talent Sophie Lasswell. Of course, the one name that you likely noticed was missing is Whittni Orton.

Despite Orton not being found in the entries, almost all of those women mentioned above helped the Cougars dominate the Oklahoma State Invitational last fall, finishing 3-6-7-9-10 to obliterate their competition.

Will that extensive depth and their interchangeable scoring options be enough to still give BYU the overall win? Not having a major scoring spark from Orton in a field like this isn't ideal, but this team is still talented enough to contend for the win.

When the Washington women are at full strength, they have the potential to be one of the best cross country teams in the nation. However, according to the entries, it looks like the Huskies will be without a plethora of top scoring options such as Allie Schadler, Taylor Chiotti, Shona McCulloch, Melany Smart and other potentially strong talents.

Sure, Haley Herberg and Camila David-Smith are set to race, but it's hard to know what we should expect out of a lineup that has very few varsity runners.

The Lady Utes are in a similar situation as Washington. Poppy Tank, who is expected to be one of the top individuals in this field, will likely give this team a major scoring spark. However, not having Bella Williams, Trina Moreno, Ellie Lundgreen or Cara Woolnough leaves Utah with limited options.

There are still a few respectable names scattered throughout their listed lineup, but it's hard to know what we should expect out of the Utah women with some of their most important scorers not toeing the line.

But let's chat about teams that will actually be fielding their full lineups.

Yukino Parle is the top option for the Boise State Broncos. She was the top finisher the last time that the Broncos were on the grass which happened to be at the 2019 NCAA Championships where she finished 83rd. She is a consistent and reliable veteran capable of leading a deep and competent group of women.

What kind of shape is Maxine Paholek in? How about Olivia Johnson, Grace Brock or Claire Graves? Lara Hamilton isn't expected to race, but this team has enough scoring options to stay competitive. Could they pack up like they did at the 2019 Mountain West Championships and secure a top-three finish? That seems plenty reasonable considering the lack of certain entries from some of the best teams in this field.

The real question, however, is whether or not Boise State has enough firepower to take down a fully-loaded team like Northern Arizona -- the next program we wanted to talk about.

The NAU women appear to be the only team fielding a lineup which features all seven of their best (known) scoring options. Taryn O'Neill and Jessa Hanson will likely be the low-sticks who give this team an edge in this somewhat smaller and condensed field. Those two could actually make a huge difference in this race considering that BYU doesn't have Whittni Orton and considering that Boise State is known more for their depth than their upfront scoring potency.

Hannah Behunin, Pipi Eitel and Bryn Morley are all returning runners from last year and capable enough of at least keeping the team scoring in tact. In a smaller field such as this with less top-end scoring, this trio of runners may actually have more of a impact than some may expect them to.

Don't sleep on Northern Arizona. They have a very underrated lineup as well as a few promising youngsters such as Tori Gaitan who have the potential to make some noise.

*Unclear who will run or if they will run