Q&A: 2023 D2 XC Conference Championship Weekend

Written by Gavin Struve, questions, edits and additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin

Conference championship weekend is fast approaching! In just a few days, Division Two cross country teams will gather at various spots around the nation to battle in a championship setting while aiming for aerobic supremacy within their respective leagues.

With so many important meets happening all at once, it was going to be incredibly difficult to extensively preview all of them. That's why we have opted to do a "Q&A" of sorts with our D2 (and D3) editor, Gavin Struve, as we highlight all of the main action to watch this weekend.

Our RMAC XC Championship preview is also in the works! Stay tuned!

In recent years, the race for runner-up at the GLIAC XC Championships has been a three-way battle between Saginaw Valley State, Wayne State (MI) and Michigan Tech. You shouldn't expect that to change this weekend.

Interestingly enough, we saw this solid troika of teams face-off earlier this month in a deep Lewis XC Crossover field. In that setting, Saginaw Valley State edged out Wayne State (MI) for 7th place while Michigan Tech was a ways behind in 13th place.

This may be the safe pick, but I’ll go with the Cardinals here. Not necessarily because we’ve already seen them triumph over their Mitten State foes — both at the Lewis XC Crossover and at this stage last year — but because they have more lineup stability.

At the Lewis XC Crossover, the SVSU men showcased compact, team-centric running. Their top-two men (Thomas Hufton and Dominic Suliman) both snuck into the top-20 while their supporting cast went 71-78-82 to close out the scoring. With two other men also in the top-100, the Cardinals feel like a very safe bet in this field.

It is, however, possible that the Warriors’ up-front firepower, led by star Ransom Allen, will shine through in a smaller field. Michigan Tech isn’t entirely out of this either, although certain names will have to step up quite a bit in order for this team to land silver.

Even so, I have fewer questions about the Cardinals’ potential for volatility and lineup gaps. The steadiest team may well be the one that wins the race for 2nd place on Saturday.

I think it’s fair to crown Ransom Allen as the clear favorite to win the individual conference title, which would be his first, at the GLIAC XC Championships. In fact, I’d take Allen over the rest of the field, which is to say that I’m more confident in him winning than not.

Of course, he’ll hardly be without competition, even in a year in which the Grand Valley State men don’t appear to have a singular superstar talent.

The Lakers still have a handful of All-American favorites and it wasn’t long ago that Caleb Futter was ranked a spot above Allen in our TSR preseason top-25 individual rankings. He is, after all, the top returner from this race last year.

Given his experience, Futter would be my pick of anyone to win the individual title over Allen, but I like the upside of his Laker teammate, Elias Bergman, about as much.
 
 Allen has never won this meet before and doing so would be a major achievement. He’s been on another plane this year relative to the rest of the men in this field, but I don't think it would a complete shock if GVSU manages to not only produce a team title, but the individual winner as well for the fifth-straight season. A handful of men in their lineup seemingly have some untapped upside which won't make this an easy race for their Wayne State foe.

I’m really interested in the season-long trajectory of the Wayne State (MI) women.

They entered the fall months with relatively high billing and expectations as a “Just Missed” team in our TSR preseason top-10 team rankings. This squad is almost certainly destined for another appearance at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, but it feels like this race is their last chance to show us that they’re capable of more.

The Warriors were a bit underwhelming in their first real test at the Griak Invitational, falling short of expectations in terms of both depth and firepower. Their performance at the Lewis XC Crossover didn’t really change our estimation of them, although it was by no means bad.

There doesn’t appear to be a true low-stick on this team which isn't ideal for a squad that is slotted in the tier that Wayne State (MI) finds themselves in. Reagan Justice is the closest thing to a low-stick that they have and she has been plenty serviceable in the lead-scoring role. That being said, she may need more help if the Warriors hope to lock up runner-up honors on Saturday.

There was a noticeable drop-off after the Warriors’ top-two in their last showing, but their backend closed out the scoring in respectable fashion. We also know Thailyia Christensen, who was the fifth scorer at the Lewis XC Crossover, can be much better for moving forward.

The Concordia University-Irvine women were one of the more pleasant surprises of a loaded weekend of Division Two action two weeks ago. Their runner-up finish, and near upset of Chico State, makes them a force to be reckoned with -- not only in the PacWest conference, but also the West region.

CUI actually had a more potent lead scorer (Jodi Paradis) than the Wildcats and a better fifth runner as well. Paradis is arguably the individual favorite in this field and her teammate Madeline Jahshan has some sneaky-good potential after producing a 15th place finish at the UCR Invitational. Of course, Biola has an individual contender of their own in Bethany Mapes.

A tighter spread between CUI's front three and final two scorers would make a clear difference in this team’s points tally. And from that perspective, it feels like middle-lineup scorer Porshe Eismann could be the biggest x-factor for this team on Saturday.

To be clear, I’m not trying to discount the Eagles of Biola who were fairly solid at the Lewis XC Crossover. If Britta Holmberg and Lynette Ruiz can cut down on the gap between them and secondary scorer Susanne Bruennig, then this is going to be an incredibly challenging team to defeat this weekend.

And yet, despite all of that, I’ll ride with the Golden Eagles’ newfound momentum and trust that they live up to their namesake for a slight upset. As such, I’ll give CUI a 60% chance at pulling off the slight upset, although the general consensus may be roughly half of that.

Sam Wilhelm has yet to lose to another Division Two man this fall, but there’s a good chance that changes on his home course this Saturday.

For as shaky as Jan Lukas Becker looked (relative to expectations) earlier this season, he appears to have gradually rounded into form ever since his unexciting 5th place finish at the Southern Stampede meet which he was expected to win.

That being said, Becker has yet to have a truly “bad” performance. All four men who finished ahead of him in that aforementioned Southern Stampede race are strong, nationally competitive names. It's a similar conversation regarding his 8th place finish at the Louisville XC Classic.

You could argue that Wilhelm’s entire body of work this fall has been better. He did, after all, snag a 15th place finish at the quietly competitive Cowboy Jamboree, taking down names such as Abraham Avila-Martinez (Texas) and Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State) in the process. Those are no-joke talents at the Division One level.

Regardless, I'm betting on Becker’s pedigree this weekend as he aims to win his third conference title at the Division Two level. He has been plenty competitive this fall, although there is a solid chance that Wilhelm has just reached a different level in 2023. And with that possibility in mind, I’ll give him a 30% chance of upsetting Becker.

The Vikings are relatively clear favorites on both sides entering the GNAC XC Championships. As such, the real point of intrigue is not whether they will win team titles, but rather which individuals will foster more firepower and lineup cohesion entering the postseason.

That being said, I think the dynamic of this meet will be different this year on a hilly and challenging course in Anchorage. No GNAC XC Championship has been held in Alaska in two decades, and you can seemingly understand why as the temperatures will be in the high 20s.

I’ll bank on four Viking men and two Viking women finishing among the individual top-10 spots in their respective races. That would put them down only one from the combined total (seven) that they had at this meet last fall.

We should note that it’s not out of the question that the WWU women will be upset for the GNAC team title. The Alaska-Fairbanks women have the most upside in the conference and tons of firepower. Although the Nanooks have a small margin for error, we have yet to see them at full strength this fall and they could surprise Western Washington on Saturday.

I’ll give the edge to Winona State's firepower, even in a smaller field than the typically large invitationals that the Warriors have contested this fall.

Kaylee Beyer’s emergence as a veritable low-stick next to Lindsay Cunningham has been a major boon for a team that may needs every last point in what’s sure to be an interesting battle from a scoring structure standpoint.

The rise of Sophia Taarud as a reliable middle lineup scorer has also been a welcomed development. Even so, Winona State will be relying on a lot of youth at their backend scoring positions to unseat a still-strong Augustana (SD) program that has ruled the conference in recent years.

Aubrey Surage could potentially neutralize some of Winona State's firepower which would certainly help the Vikings. However, the real determinant of Augustana's success this weekend will be how competitive women such as Ella Bakken, Ana McCabe, Ashley Overgaauw and Amanda Overgaauw can be with Winona State's third scorer, Sophia Taarud.

Regardless, I think the field size could work in Winona State’s favor. They have enough talent to close out their scoring within the top-20 and they can minimize the effects of what’s expected to be a tighter scoring group for the Vikings. For that reason, I'll take the Warriors.

Even if they haven’t lived up to the lofty expectations that were established following their successful 2022 fall campaign, the Yellow Jackets are still a potent and dangerous contingent as we angle towards the postseason. That’s because they’ve already had great success on the national stage (7th in 2022) with similar pieces.

But perhaps more importantly, in relation to this question, Cedarville has already soundly defeated Walsh this season at the All-Ohio Intercollegiate XC Challenge just over a month ago while also edging out Division One foe Akron in the same race.

How close “can” the Cavaliers come to the Yellow Jackets? Probably too close for comfort if all goes to plan for Walsh and Cedarville significantly underwhelms.

Of course, that still seems unlikely.

At last year's conference meet, the Walsh women were 67 points behind their G-MAC rivals. Cedarville doesn’t look quite as sharp in 2023, but they're still plenty dangerous, so I’ll say that they beat their in-state rivals by a touch over 50 points on Saturday.

Both Lewis cross country teams, men and women, are flying high after breakout performances in deep fields at their home meet, the Lewis XC Crossover. Both Flyers squads finished 3rd that day, soaring into our team rankings. That's why it feels safe to say that both teams are measurably improved from last year's squads that finished runner-up (men) and were victorious (women) at this same meet.

Even so, the Flyer men will still have their hands full as they try to deal with an Illinois-Springfield team that has some really strong names in Cortland Ross and Noah McIntyre. The women, however, should be fairly comfortable favorites.

With that in mind, I’ll project that both Lewis squads trim their point totals slightly from 2022 and put up a combined 65 points with nearly identical scores to sweep the GLVC team titles.

To be honest, Talel Khalfi probably just needs to finish runner-up or better at the G-MAC XC Championships in order to enter our individual top-25 rankings next week. He was just on the fringes of a ranking in our last update and we just want to see more high-end results from this relatively unknown Tiffin ace.

Khalfi looked borderline elite in his first three races of the season, losing only to East Central ace Aspel Kiprob and beating a cluster of top names himself. However, he faltered a bit in his first major test at the Lewis XC Crossover, placing 30th. Still, it’s hard to fault Khalfi too much for falling back in a larger field, even if I harbored top-five expectations for him.

The Tiffin standout has already defeated seemingly everybody of note in this field. However, Findlay’s Noah Fisher is likely the favorite and the safer pick after finishing 5th at the Lewis XC Crossover. Of course, let's not forget that Khalfi beat Fisher over 6000 meters in a season-opener, although based on the finishing times, that may have been a more conservative effort for Fisher and teammate Jordan Foster.

Khalfi has a very real shot at winning a conference title in his first NCAA season. But frankly, at this point, we just need to see more strong results that validate our confidence in this Tunisian ace who only recently emerged on our radar.

And he doesn’t necessarily have to win to do that.