PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 Lewis XC Crossover

Written by Gavin Struve, predictions by Grace McLaughlin

Edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin

It may not dominate the Division Two national scene like the Nuttycombe Invitational will for Division One next week, but the Lewis XC Crossover has built a well-deserved reputation as quietly being one of the better regular season meets.

And that still holds true in 2023, maybe now more than ever.

In fact, both the men’s and women’s fields are expected to feature three full-strength teams listed in our preseason top-10 rankings along with multiple squads from our “Just Missed” and “Honorable Mentions” ranks.

With that amount of team and individual talent in one place during the first few weeks of fall, this meet has the potential to give us early insight and significantly affect the way that we view the D2 landscape over the coming months. Let’s dive in, shall we?

The headline here is the battle between a pair of expected podium squads (with one of them being a legitimate title contender): Grand Valley State and Colorado Mines. In most years, the Lakers would be the overwhelming favorites, often wielding the nation’s most complete team with the standard exception of Adams State.

However, some lingering rumors have suggested that this team is only racing half of their projected varsity lineup on Saturday. Current speculation is that women such as Klaudia O’Malley, Taryn Chapko and Kayce Rypma could make appearances in this race, although that is still pending.

If that's the case, then that wouldn't be a total surprise given that this Michigan-based powerhouse is fresh off of a big upset win against Adams State at the Louisville XC Classic.

Even so, O’Malley, Chapko and Rypma may very well be in the thick of the lead pack if they do run. That's a scoring trio that could absolutely be competitive with the Orediggers through their first few runners.

That being said, the amount of firepower that is spread throughout Colorado Mines' lineup will make it extremely challenging for the Lakers to counter their opponents in the latter-half of their scoring group. Molly Maksin, Riley McGrath, Grace Strongman, Clare Peters, Holly Moser and Jenna Ramsey-Rutledge are a contingent of women who could all realistically emerge as All-Americans come November.

Yes, that may be an optimistic outlook, but it's not impossible, either.

So while we may not get to see a full-strength clash between Colorado Mines and GVSU, it will still be interesting to see how their scoring dynamics unfold.

Beyond those two titans of industry, the Colorado Christian women will be angling to stay fairly close to their Centennial State foe. And while it seems unlikely that the Cougars can knock off the Orediggers — although they won this meet last year — we should be able to get a solid gauge of this team based on how close they can get to their RMAC rivals in a relatively deep field.

Colorado Mines already dominated Colorado Christian at the CU Time Trial on September 1st. That, however, was over an unconventional distance, in a smaller field, in an obvious rust-buster and it took place over a month ago.

We’ll be watching closely to see if Colorado Christian front-runner Paige Tack can break up the front-half of what the Orediggers are going to field on Saturday. We're confident that she's going to offer great low-stick value. Of course, it's the rest of this lineup that will truly determine how well the Cougars do on Saturday.

The scoring contingent of Zanzie Demco, Shannon King, Lucy Pidek and Michelle Burroughs (neé Kuipers) have all shown various moments of promise over the last couple of years. Their ability to minimize scoring gaps should help them in this larger field, but a lack of recent racing in 2023 has made some of these women a mystery when it comes to their expectations for Saturday.

However, a more fair comparison for the Cougars this weekend will be how they perform relative to Winona State, a team listed at TSR #8, just one spot behind the Cougars in our preseason rankings.

The Warriors certainly have better firepower with Kaylee Beyer and individual title favorite Lindsay Cunningham. In fact, that duo may be able to contend with the top women of Grand Valley State and Colorado Mines (as well as Paige Tack).

Not only that, but Sophia Taarud has made some promising improvements this fall and McKenna Taylor has proven that she can be a high-impact middle-lineup contributor when she's racing at her absolute best.

With potent front-runners and a clearly-improving supporting cast, Winona State could produce a big-time result and further establish themselves as one of the better cross country teams in the nation for 2023.

A different group of Warriors, the ones of Wayne State (MI), could be in the same kind of company with a bounce back from a slightly underwhelming performance at the Griak Invitational “Maroon” race which we thought they could have won going into it.

Reagan Justice still looks to be a burgeoning low-stick after finishing in the top-10 two weekends ago. Can some of her teammates — namely Briana Vojinov and Thailyia Christensen — join her towards the front of this field?

It seems like the Warriors have a relatively high floor either way, but as we saw a couple of weeks ago, their ceiling is still an unknown to us.

Also, Biola and Lewis feel like teams that are due for breakout races.

Biola, the Los Angeles-based group, brought a relatively young squad to the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and should be improved after another year of experience. Look for Bethany Mapes to lead a team which shouldn't have many flaws or backend gaps based on what we've seen from them so far.

As for Lewis, they beat Division One programs such as Duquesne and San Diego at the National Catholic Invitational at Notre Dame in early September. That's admittedly a tough race to deeply analyze, but there was no denying how strong Hannah Smrcka, Abbey Kozak and Caroline Pacer-Ryan were.

Alright, now for the individuals...

While Lindsay Cunningham is a significant favorite, individually — she took down a number of BIG 10 and BIG 12 talents in Lincoln, Nebraska on September 16th by nearly a minute (!) — the race for runner-up figures to be just as compelling.

We've already spoken about the women of Grand Valley State (specifically O'Malley), Colorado Mines (specifically Maksin) and Paige Tack from Colorado Christian. Nearly all of those runners could be top names in this field regardless of their team goals. Of course, they're also expected to have plenty of company at the top of Saturday's race.

Kylie Anicic (Edinboro) has already won two races this fall and started her 2022 cross country campaign in similar fashion before finishing runner-up behind Cunningham at this same meet. She’ll have her work cut out for her if she wants to replicate that result this year, but we can’t discount her talent and lengthy experience.

Anicic seems very much in line for a top-half All-American performance in November and she has a high baseline for success (her 31st place finish at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships was one of her lesser cross country results over the past 13 months). That's why I feel bullish on the likelihood of her finishing as a top-five runner in this field.

If you’re searching for someone who could hang around the lead group and kick her way to a top finish, Katie (Fankhouser) Heck of Fort Lewis will be familiar with many of her competitors’ racing tendencies and she just happens to have excellent middle distance chops. She’s often at her best in the postseason, but is no slouch in the months leading up to it.

Liz Wamsley (Hillsdale) is undefeated so far this season and feels like one of the more reliable aerobic talents in this field. She’s yet another name that makes the expected race for runner-up (behind Cunningham) so compelling.

Let's also not forget about Alexa Keiser (Saginaw Valley) who could also make an impact.

The men’s race is even more loaded in many ways, featuring a horde of teams who finished just outside of our top-10 preseason team rankings. But perhaps just as interestingly, this meet figures to provide our first true look at the Orediggers’ varsity group.

And naturally, I'm excited to have a cluster of questions about Colorado Mines answered.

Namely, does Duncan Fuehne look like the dominant individual national title contender that we’ve pegged him as? Have transfers JP Rutledge and Logan Bocovich quickly assimilated to training at altitude? Has blue chip recruit Daniel Appleford developed to the point of making a measurable impact in his sophomore campaign? Does Colorado Mines even need him to? What does this team’s scoring structure and hierarchy look like on Saturday?

Of course, regardless of that uncertainty, the Orediggers should be able to handle this field somewhat comfortably. Yes, the Colorado Christian men are not going to make things easy, but as far as depth and firepower are concerned, the men from Golden, Colorado are simply expected to be better.

We should also note that Loic Scomparin, one of the top names in the NCAA this fall, isn't expected to toe the line on Saturday per one source. That, however, could change.

As is the case on the women’s side, CCU is the second-highest ranked team in this field (according to TSR). Matthew Storer was among the nation’s best as a redshirt freshman in 2022, but we haven’t seen him race in a little over five months.

Ranked at TSR #6 in our preseason top-25 individual rankings, he’s capable of competing towards the top of this field and even besting many of the Orediggers in his season debut. Will he do so?

We also can’t neglect to mention his teammate, Trent Cochran, who was the men’s runner-up finisher at this meet last year. Of course, the 2022 version of the Lewis XC Crossover didn't feature the national champions like it does this year. Regardless, Cochran gives the Cougars a lethal 1-2 punch next to Storer and that top duo could turn into a lethal trio if Alexander Vance's win at the CU Time Trial is any legitimate indicator of his fitness.

I’m also really high on Western Washington, a balanced squad that has won their first two races of the 2023 cross country season relatively comfortably. The Vikings could realistically make a push for the runner-up spot in the team race on Saturday, but at the same time, I wonder if they’ll have the requisite front-end firepower to beat out all but Colorado Mines.

Kevin McDermott may help in that regard after finishing 7th in this field last fall. Andrew Oslin looks like he could be that secondary scorer who complements McDermott, but those two men will have their hands full trying to match the low-sticks of two powerhouse teams.

Luckily, Western Washington's outstanding depth and numerous lineup options should make it challenging for this team to struggle in a field like this.

Truthfully, the Michigan Tech men didn’t exactly wow anyone at the Griak Invitational a couple of weeks back. However, I don’t want to discount them just yet as they were 4th at this meet last year. Of course, the difference in 2023 is that the Huskies no longer have key front-runners such as Drew Kolodge and Clayton Sayen, although Samuel Lange may emerge as a very nice replacement.

It's a similar story for the Walsh men who lost a lot from a top-20 team last year. Regardless, we should know a lot more about the Cavaliers’ 2023 squad after this weekend.

How about the hosts? The Lewis Flyers reached the national meet last year and return six of their seven varsity runners from that appearance. They may be the team best-positioned for a breakout in this race, relative to expectations, and won’t have to deal with the variable of travel that many of their visiting competitors will have.

We like Charlie Wirth and what he could potentially do in this field, but just like Western Washington, the strength of this Lewis team is in their ability to run as a pack. They have had fairly minimal gaps among their back-four scorers, but how effective will that be against opponents who flex far greater firepower?

Saginaw Valley State is without Dayton Brown, the individual champion of this meet in 2022 who transferred to Adams State months later. But the Cardinals had a host of underclassmen behind him in last year’s varsity group and will likely still be a factor toward the top of this field. They have an opportunity to introduce a new lead scorer on a larger stage.

We’ve gotten this far without even noting many of the top individuals in this field.

Noah Fisher was on our radar as a probable All-American entering this season, but he changed our estimations of him upon winning the All Ohio Intercollegiate XC Challenge in mid-September. Sure, his other outings this fall haven’t been as elite, but they were far from bad and he looks to have taken a leap.

Ransom Allen may be my dark horse pick to win that race, but even that feels disrespectful to what the Wayne State (MI) ace has accomplished to date. He won the Griak Invitational “Maroon” race earlier this season and while that field was not quite as strong as this one, it's nice to know that he has already snagged a victory against a formidable regular season field.

Should we really be surprised if the two-time cross country All-American earns another win?

Talel Khalfi (Tiffin) has been bordering on the line of elite in his debut season and may be close to making his name known across the entire Division Two landscape after already topping guys like Andrew Amor, Jan Lukas Becker, Gidieon Kimutai, Noah McIntyre and Donald Kibet, among others, and running as fast as 23:40 (8k).

However, it may be Cole Nash who is the most dangerous in this field. A guy who is ranked at TSR #4 in our preseason rankings had been absent from competition since March. Luckily, the Alaska Anchorage star has returned and still looks plenty strong, securing the win at the WWU Bill Roe Classic.

As someone who is a true aerobic-centric star with a 6th place finish at the cross country national meet on his resume, it shouldn't come as any surprise if Nash took home gold on Saturday.

With no clear men’s individual favorite in this field, we could be in for a barnburner of a race that produces fast times, presents new contenders and perhaps creates a more nuanced picture of the national D2 landscape.

via Grace McLaughlin

NOTE: Not all teams are fielding fully-stacked lineups.

Teams

Individuals

Teams

Individuals