PREDICTIONS: 2024 UW Ken Shannon Last Chance Invitational

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event.

NOTE: TSR is aware that an athlete could/will scratch out of certain events to pursue a more manageable weekend double (or even triple). As such, TSR's predictions assume that an athlete is contesting a certain event as part of a weekend double/triple that would be deemed "reasonable." Unless shown otherwise in the entries, DMR predictions do not necessarily assume that a certain relay will feature the best possible lineup. These predictions were constructed prior to the release of full heat sheets.

Analysis: Stanford’s Juliette Whittaker needs a solid race this weekend to guarantee herself a spot on the line at next month’s NCAA Indoor Championships over 800 meters. The sophomore standout has run a solid 2:0.67 mark this winter, but we haven't necessarily seen her look like the national title contender that she was last year. Washington’s Wilma Nielsen and Marlena Preigh are both consistent runners and have the home track advantage this weekend. Watch out for the latter name who is due to finally crack 2:03. Chloe Foerster is also in this field. She was the sophomore who stunned the country with her 4:28 mile PR a few weeks ago. And while the Husky star is due for a new 800-meter PR, she strikes me more as a strength-based miler. The dark horse of this 800-meter field this weekend is Kate Jendrezak of UCLA. The Bruin ace popped onto the scene after running 2:03 a few weeks ago. And with momentum on her side, Jendrezak could surprise her competition.  

Analysis: There’s not much to focus on when it comes to the men's 800-meter field this weekend. True freshman Nathan Cumberbatch (USC) has been making a name for himself this winter over the half-mile distance, recording an excellent 1:47 mark earlier this season. Of course, he’ll have some tough competition between a slew of Oregon Ducks, specifically Matthew Erickson, an established 800-meter veteran who ran 1:46 last spring. But don’t count out UCLA’s Angus Harrington as the Englishman also has an 800-meter PR of 1:46 and just posted a strong 1:47 mark in a battle against Handal Roban two weeks back. Erickson and Harrington haven’t matched their PRs this season, but there’s still the possibility that they do so this weekend. 

Analysis: Laura Pellicoro (Portland), Sophie O’Sullivan (Washington) and Maddy Elmore (Oregon) need big races this weekend. All three of those women are sitting on the outside-looking-in at the top-16 of the national leaderboard right now in the mile. A 4:31.00 performance or faster will certainly bolster their national qualifying hopes in this event (when considering scratches), but to do that, these women are going to need to go hard from the gun, time their moves and hope for the best. O’Sullivan seems to be finding her groove after running 4:33 in the mile the other week. And based on her prior success, she has the best shot of extending her season.

Analysis: This might be the best race of the weekend on the men’s side. With men like Ronan McMahon-Staggs (Washington), Ky Robinson (Stanford) and Miguel Coca (Adams State), it's hard to pick a clear winner. In my eyes, the nod has to go to McMahon-Staggs given his 3:54 (mile) PR and the fact that he'll be racing on his home track. Of course, don’t count out the range of Ky Robinson, a guy who can drop a 3:55 (mile) mark -- and he's likely in better shape now than he was back then. Coca, a Division Two stud, ran a 3:55 altitude-converted mile a few weeks ago and destroyed the D2 3k record shortly thereafter. He is an all-around excellent competitor who has a real chance to fight for the win. 

Analysis: Oregon’s duo of Silan Ayyildiz and Maddy Elmore headline this field, but mark my words, Amy Bunnage of Stanford is going to put up a fight. We already know that Ayyildiz is capable of running stellar times across various distances given her 4:30 (mile) speed and 8:56 (3k) strength. However, we haven’t seen Elmore toe the line in quite some time, so her status is a bit up in the air. But if she's at 100% this weekend, then she will unquestionably be top-five talent. Bunnage, a true freshman, is still finding her place amongst collegiate competition, but her 8:54 (3k) seasonal best is in the same wheelhouse as the Ducks mentioned above. Keep an eye out for Washington State’s Zenah Cheptoo. The freshman has only run a handful of meets, but she is someone who could make a statement amongst a group of veterans. 

Analysis: Ky Robinson and Cole Sprout of Stanford have the fastest PRs in the field, the former posting an unreal 7:36 (3k) mark on this same track a few weeks. Of course, even if Robinson were to contest this event, don’t expect the same kind of time this weekend -- he doesn't really need this meet for anything other than a tune-up. As for Sprout, he’s going to need a small miracle for him to qualify for the indoor national meet this year. A key name to watch this weekend is Adams State’s James Dunne. His recent 3:57 mile at Boston U. is setting him up for a hefty 3k PR this weekend. 

Analysis: Between Stanford’s Amy Bunnage, Zofia Dudek and Sophia Kennedy, a Cardinal athlete is bound to win the 5k this weekend in Washington. Bunnage, a 15:21 (5k) runner, will be making her collegiate 5k debut this weekend. She’s coming off of a very strong 8:54 (3k) effort and has the potential to earn an indoor national meet berth. As for Dudek and Kennedy, the pair recorded identical 15:43 (5k) marks a few weeks ago, but it's fair to say that they have gained fitness since then...right?

Analysis: Don’t expect too much from the men’s 5k this weekend. Ky Robinson of Stanford already has a national qualifying time and there's a good chance that he doesn't even contest the 5k this weekend (but we're assuming that he will). Of course, Robinson's nearest competitors don’t have a national qualifying mark. The true battle will probably be between Colorado’s Austin Vancil and Stanford’s Cole Sprout and Lex Young. We aren’t anticipating a sub-13:30 (5k) clocking this weekend in Washington, but expect a close race, nonetheless. Sprout hasn’t been in tip-top shape this season, although he has posted a few encouraging results that he can build on.

Analysis: There's not much to discuss from a Division One perspective, although the ladies of Simon Fraser and CUI could produce a few respectable marks. Those teams would need to go well under 11:40 to truly be in contention for a national qualifying spot (which is unlikely), but battling against Washington State should be a nice gauge of how they programs stack up against their west coast counterparts.

Analysis: It would truthfully be a surprise if any lineup in this race went under 9:40. The Washington men will almost definitely not run their top men and Azusa Pacific, while they are certainly built for this event, have been largely absent from competition this winter. Pomona-Pitzer has the most to gain from a strong effort. If they run fast enough, then the Sagehens could enter the D3 DMR national title picture.