PREDICTIONS: 2024 Stanford Invite

Predictions & Analysis via Garrett Zatlin

It's hard to dislike the Stanford Invite. It's an early-season meet with the aim of producing super fast 10k times. Of course, the other middle and long distance events at this meet have grown in popularity as well.

Sure enough, this year's fields look plenty stacked (although the seeding is a little odd). As such, in addition to the content that we already posted today, we wanted to ensure that we paired our predictions for the Palo Alto-based meet with our picks from yesterday for the Raleigh Relays.

So with that, let's begin...

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Analysis: In terms of recent momentum and proven fitness, no collegian in this field is better than Riley Chamberlain right now. However, women like Wilma Nielsen and Rylee Penn are far more proven in the middle distance events and this is closer to their ideal distance than it is for Chamberlain. As such, expect these women to push each other in a field that also features a few underrated pro/unattached runners.

Analysis: Adam Spencer is also listed in the men's 1500-meter field, but it feels like racing the half-mile would be a good natural rust-buster for the spring. If that's the case, then I simply trust his pedigree and fitness to give him the edge over his competition. Yes, other men in this field are more specifically developed for this event, but outside of Matthew Erickson (who was quietly great this past winter), the other collegians in this field either haven't raced much as of late or simply haven't reached prior peaks.

Analysis: Gosh, this women's 1500-meter field is stacked as far as collegians are concerned. After splitting 4:27 on the anchor leg on BYU's DMR and looking all-around great during the winter, it has become very hard to pick against Riley Chamberlain. However, Juliette Whittaker running 1:59 (800) to take down Michaela Rose for the indoor national title puts her in the conversation to emerge as the top collegian, especially with her 4:30 mile PR. In terms of raw fitness and talent, Chloe Foerster isn't dramatically far off from those women, but the latter portion of her indoor track season showed us that she's still growing into an upper-echelon talent.

Analysis: If Adam Spencer does contest the 1500 meters, then we could be in store for a fantastic matchup between him and Nathan Green. The former feels like a more complete miler at the moment given that he placed more emphasis on that event for the national meet. Of course, Green is more than capable of running some crazy fast and taking his win. And in all of this madness, look out for Ronan McMahon-Staggs and Ezekiel Rop, two men who have shown that they could thrive in this race if it's fast enough from the gun.

Analysis: There isn't a singular 5k superstar in this field (as far as collegians are concerned). However, I could see the first three women in these predictions finishing in any and flirting with the 15:30 (5k) barrier. Hutchins has now proven to be consistent enough where I can rely on her to run fast when called upon. Meanwhile, Jenks has been quietly great over the last year and Karinauskaite's steeplechase success makes her the most accomplished collegian in this field.

Analysis: The seeding of the men's 5k admittedly looks super odd. Colin Sahlman and Alex Maier are both in the second heat while Ky Robinson is all the way back in the fourth heat. For Robinson, that entry leads me to believe that he'll be doing some kind of pacing...I think. Despite not being at the national meet, Toby Gillen looked really strong in the latter-half of the indoor track season. He was running under 13:30 (5k) while displaying strong turnover over 3000 meters. Of course, Denis Kipngetich thrives on aggressive paces and should be a factor for most of this race as well.

Analysis: In theory, the top-two collegians in this race will be Hilda Olemomoi and Molly Born. And truthfully, you could argue in favor of either woman to emerge as the top collegian. The safest and easiest pick is Olemomoi as her lengthy resume and unreal consistency makes it hard to top her. Even so, Born has a tremendous amount of momentum under her legs right now and moving up to the 10k distance could allow her to further capitalize on that still-rising talent. As for a few others, women like Gracelyn Larkin are just too talented to not be earning top times in this race while Savannah Roark is due for a big performance.

Analysis: I'll admit, I have no idea how fast this race will be or should be. Last year, coaches had told TSR that the objective for the 2023 version of this race was to simply get a fast time and a strong regional qualifying position. And yet, a handful of men still went under the 28-minute barrier. And after seeing Nico Young run under 27 minutes, I can't help but wonder how far under 28:00 some of these men will go on Friday night. Regardless, I love the Arkansas men and Victor Kiprop in this race. These guys are fantastic in fast long distance races and their skillsets should translate beautifully to the 10k if they haven't already. As for Ky Robinson, he's simply the best collegian in this field and there's nothing to suggest that he won't be the first NCAA athlete to cross the line.

Analysis: The collegians in the top heat of the women's steeplechase can all be considered as strong and talented runners, especially over the barriers. However, there isn't one woman who, based on recent results, dramatically stands out among the rest. Perri Bockrath, based on her history and recent indoor track season, is arguably the most complete steeplechaser and that's why I'm taking her. However, I struggle to believe that the other women in these predictions will simply fall off without a fight.

Analysis: For someone who is an 8:26 steeplechaser and a national meet bronze medalist, you would have expected more out of Victor Kibiego this past indoor track season. Even so, it's very clear that this UTEP-turned-Texas A&M runner evolves into a different (and noticeably better) athlete when you put barriers and water pits in front of him. For that reason, I'm taking him to emerge as the top collegian, although Abdelhakim Abouzouhir had a promising winter campaign and may not be too far off from his prior peak fitness.