PREDICTIONS: 2024 Raleigh Relays

Predictions & Analysis via Garrett Zatlin

Ladies and gentlemen...track. is. back!

Well, it never actually left, but we have returned to racing on the outdoor oval rather than running around in 200-meter (and sometimes 300-meter) circles during the winter months.

Each and every year, NCAA fans are treated to an unofficial introduction to the spring season with marquee meets being set up to take advantage of the athlete's winter fitness. One of those marquee meets is the Raleigh Relays, annually one of the top places to run a fast 5k or 10k time.

Sure enough, this year's distance fields at the Raleigh Relays are set to be just as deep with plenty of top names and a few All-American contenders sprinkled throughout. Below, we offered our predictions for which collegians will come out on top later this week/weekend...

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Analysis: While there aren't necessarily a ton of standout collegians in this field, there are a few women should be able to run some very solid times. Look for Julia Fenerty and Julia Nielsen to run around the 2:03 (800) range on a good day. However, someone like Bronwyn Patterson or Lauren Tolbert could be due for a breakout race.

Analysis: Kerem Ayhan has been excellent over the last month or two, throwing down multiple 1:47 marks for 800 meters. He's experienced and should be able to handle the other collegians in this field. However, Duke's Ryan Wilson is a perplexing case. The former D3 megastar ran just twice this past winter, producing a pair of somewhat unexciting results. He'll be a major wildcard in this field.

Analysis: This may be one of my favorite distance-centric fields of the entire meet. Kimberley May was brilliant on the indoor oval this past winter and there's no reason to believe that she won't find more grand success in Raleigh. She should be fit enough to run a super fast time, especially after running 4:27 (mile) twice this past winter. Flockhart and Workman have great momentum from the winter months under their legs, meaning that they are more known quantities compared to Teagan Schein-Becker. Even so, both Bush and Schein-Becker could crack the top-three in this race and I don't think anyone at TSR would be surprised.

Analysis: While this field may not be super top-heavy, there are a handful of great milers, many of whom have comfortably dipped under the four-minute barrier on the indoor oval multiple times. Solomon feels like the most complete and experienced runner in this field, but many of the other top collegians feel like they are better pure milers as far as skillsets are concerned. Watch out for Jack Crull who has been quietly stringing together some really solid efforts as of late.

Analysis: The top collegian in this race will likely be Margot Appleton or Amina Maatoug, although you might as well flip a coin to decide who that will be. Leah Stephens was fantastic during the fall months, but didn't race during indoor track. Even so, she should be able to thrive in a field that will be competitive, but not overwhelmingly so.

Analysis: On paper, Nickolas Scudder is simply the best collegian in this field. He has the fastest 5k PR, has the most experience and often does well in these kinds of environments. Other strong aerobic-centric runners like Brian Masai, Benjamin Godish and CJ Singleton should fare well, although Gary Martin is a major x-factor. You could argue that the Cavalier ace is the most naturally talented guy in this field, but moving up to 5000 meters may be a challenge for someone who has mostly contested the 800 meters and the mile distances during his time at UVA.

Analysis: What do you prefer? Talent or experience? If you want raw talent, then Grace Hartman should be your pick as the top collegian in the women's 10k. She not only ran a sub-15:30 (5k) conversion this past winter, but she is also coming off of a 15:28 effort on the national stage to earn All-American honors. In nearly every aspect, she'll be favored to take down Sadie Sigfstead. However, the Villanova standout has often fared well in the longer distances and has looked quietly great over the last year, taking a very clear leap up in her fitness. If inexperience gets to Hartman, an NC State sophomore, then Sigfstead, Jenny Schilling or maybe even a fully healthy Emily Covert could pull ahead.

Analysis: A lot of these men should fare well in an aggressively paced 10k battle, especially guys like Bradley Makuvire and Abraham Longosiwa. However, at the end of the day, Florian Le Pallec should be the clear-cut pick to be the top collegian. Last summer, he ran 13:29 and 13:30 over 5000 meters. And after displaying great promise in the fall, it seems like this Butler graduate student is destined to thrive in this event.

Analysis: All of these steeplechasers are plenty talented and there's a good chance that three or maybe even four of these ladies appear on the national stage come June. However, the biggest thing to watch will be how much progress Emily Cole and Sophie Novak have made in their fitness since last year. They don't need to set new PRs this weekend, but it will be interesting to see if they can eventually build themselves resumes that put them in the All-American conversation for this event.

Analysis: In theory, Tom Seitzer is the safest collegian to pick in this field. He's consistent, highly experienced and flat-out talented. However, guys like Patrick Thygesen and Ricardo Barbosa have had moments over the last year or two which suggests that they will not be easy outs. Although, frankly, you could reorder the 2-3-4-5 picks in my predictions in any way you see fit and I probably wouldn't argue with you.